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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — August 14, 2026

August 14, 20269 racesAll Evangeline picks

It's a hot one down in Opelousas. Evangeline Downs goes to the gate on August 14th with a nine-race card and the thermometer pushing 94°F under clear skies. That kind of heat can take a toll on horses stretching out in distance, so watch the pace scenarios closely in the route races today — particularly that one-mile dirt Claiming in Race 4 and the mile turf Allowance Optional Claiming that closes the day in Race 8.

The card mixes it up nicely across surfaces, with five dirt races and four turf offerings giving bettors plenty of angles to work with. We've got maiden action bookending the day, a pair of Allowance spots for the better horses, and several Claiming races where class and pace shape tend to do the heavy lifting. There's something here for every level of bettor.

TrackWiz analysis has identified strong top picks in each of the nine races — three of which are unlocked and available to every reader right now. Our highest-rated horse on the card today is Mahoney Road in Race 6, a 6-furlong Allowance on dirt, coming in with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54. Keep an eye on that one.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint that looks top-heavy at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, with Faye L. carrying a significant edge over a field where several runners are making early career starts and haven't established much of a foundation.

win7Faye L.ML 3/1

Faye L. (No. 7) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 — a number that stands well clear of her closest rivals — and matches the field's top average speed figure of 53. Trainer Isai V. Gonzalez puts her out at a reasonable 3/1 morning line, suggesting connections are quietly confident. Jose Luis Rodriguez has the call, and the combination of elite rating and competitive speed in a maiden claiming field where most horses have yet to break their maiden makes Faye L. the clear top pick here.

place2Candy Girl MissML 6/1

Candy Girl Miss (No. 2) checks in with a 72.89 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and also carries an average speed figure of 53. Trainer Jacoby Landry sends her out at 6/1, which represents solid value if she can't quite get past Faye L. but runs her race. Isaac Castillo takes the mount, and at those odds she's a logical piece in any exacta or place wager.

show6Flora BoundML 8/1

Flora Bound (No. 6) rates third on our TrackWiz numbers at 60.85 and posts a respectable average speed of 52 in this maiden claiming sprint. The 8/1 morning line makes her a nice exotic play — trainer Samuel Breaux and jockey Harry Hernandez team up, and if she runs to her rating she should be in the mix for a piece of the purse. She's not the flashiest name in the field, but the numbers say she belongs in your trifecta.

Race 2

10:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

This 7.5-furlong turf claimer is shaping up as a classic pace battle between two horses sitting right at the top of the morning line, while the TrackWiz ratings tell a different story — pointing to a well-hidden overlay at the top of the price board.

win8Struck OutML 6/1

Struck Out (No. 8) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71 and goes postward at 6/1 — a price that represents genuine overlay territory when the numbers say he should be near favoritism. His 14% career win rate is the best in this field by a meaningful margin, and trainer Emile Schwandt pairs with jockey Jamison Mudd on the turf. The combination of top rating, best career win percentage, and a fair morning line makes Struck Out TrackWiz's standout play in Race 2.

place4Matinee IdolML 3/1

Matinee Idol (No. 4) edges out Footprint for second on the TrackWiz ratings at 65.91 and owns a solid 10% career win rate. Thomas L. Pompell gets the mount for trainer Keith G. Bourgeois, and at 3/1 he's likely to attract plenty of public money — with good reason. He's the type who can sit off the pace in a longer sprint and close with authority if the setup is right.

show3FootprintML 2/1

Footprint (No. 3) is right on Matinee Idol's heels at 65.76 on the TrackWiz scale and leads the field with the top average speed figure of 54 alongside Dark Vector and Maxxus. His 8% career win rate is respectable, and trainer Juan Munoz Cano hands Carlos Perez a live mount at the 2/1 morning line. If the pace scenario favors a presser, Footprint has the raw numbers to be running at the wire.

Race 3

11:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Five furlongs of claiming action on the dirt, and the TrackWiz ratings are emphatic — one horse stands well clear of the rest of this field, and the morning line is generous enough to make this a legitimate best-bet situation.

win3Lucky JuanML 9/2

Lucky Juan (No. 3) tops the TrackWiz field at 84.9, a rating that sits 24 points above the second-best horse — that kind of separation in a claiming sprint is significant. He posts an average speed figure of 54, matching the top marks in the field, and trainer Brett A. Brinkman puts him out at a comfortable 9/2. Javier Antonio Hernandez climbs aboard, and if Lucky Juan fires his best race, this field may not have the firepower to keep up.

place6Hint HintML 6/1

Hint Hint (No. 6) has quietly put together a 10% career win rate and sports a 60.21 TrackWiz rating that slots him firmly into the second tier of this field. At 6/1, trainer Isai V. Gonzalez is sending Kevin Roman out with what looks like a live price — Hint Hint's speed figure of 53 keeps him competitive in a 5-furlong dash, and he's the type of horse who can be forwardly placed and stay involved all the way to the wire.

show4Kara FlashML 3/1

Kara Flash (No. 4) carries a 57.92 TrackWiz rating and matches Lucky Juan with a top average speed figure of 54 — that raw speed matters in a sprint. Trainer Juan A. Larrosa sends Carlos Perez out at 3/1, which means the public sees something here too. If she gets away cleanly and faces no pace pressure early, there's a realistic scenario where she's a factor late.

The first three races on today's Evangeline card are fully unlocked, and they give us a solid cross-section of what this track is serving up. Faye L. opens the day in the Maiden Claiming sprint at 6 furlongs (morning line 3/1, TrackWiz rating 87.08) — she's our top selection and projects well on a fast Evangeline dirt strip baking under the August sun. In Race 2, we flip to the turf for a 7½-furlong Claiming where Struck Out stands out at a juicy 6/1 on the morning line with a rating of 82.71. That's a value play worth circling. Race 3 brings us back to the dirt for a quick 5-furlong Claiming dash, and Lucky Juan (9/2 ML, 84.90 rating) looks like the one to beat.

One thread tying these free picks together: in this kind of heat, early speed can flatten out faster than usual, especially on the dirt. Horses that can rate just off the pace and pounce in the stretch have an edge today. Keep that in mind as you handicap — and as we move through the full card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of nine goes a mile on the dirt in this claiming race, and the top three in the TrackWiz ratings are bunched tightly enough that this figures to be a genuine three-way battle — pace scenario will matter, and value hunters should look closely at Our Determination floating at double-digit odds.

win2Get Them JustinML 5/2

Get Them Justin (No. 2) tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and owns a 14% career win rate to back it up. Thomas L. Pompell picks up the mount for trainer Kearney Segura, and at 5/2 on the morning line this is the consensus pick for good reason. He'll need to handle the mile on dirt, and if the pace scenario sets up fairly, his overall profile makes him the horse to beat.

place8Mr. FavershamML 3/1

Mr. Faversham (No. 8) is just a tick behind at 85.23 on the TrackWiz scale and brings the third-best career win percentage in the field at 19% — meaningful experience at a mile. Carlos Perez has the call for trainer Juan Munoz Cano, and at 3/1 he's not a huge overlay but his consistency numbers are hard to ignore. If Get Them Justin gets into any trouble or the pace is brutal up front, Mr. Faversham has the class to pounce.

show3Woods N WaterML 4/1

Woods N Water (No. 3) rates third among our TrackWiz selections at 83.16 and carries the most impressive career win rate in this field at 24% — a number that tells you this horse knows how to get to the winner's circle. Trainer Samuel Breaux sends Harry Hernandez out at 4/1, and a 52 average speed figure keeps him right in the mix for a mile. He's a very live show candidate and shouldn't be left out of trifecta tickets.

Race 5

12:18 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A ten-horse turf sprint at 5 furlongs with a massive TrackWiz rating gap at the top — Hold My Hat profiles as a standout, but Miracle On Central lurking at 8/1 makes this card's most interesting value play.

win1Hold My HatML 7/2

Hold My Hat (No. 1) tops the TrackWiz field at 84.31 and posts a 54 average speed figure that's among the best in this field on the turf. Trainer Carrol Castille sends Timothy Thornton out at 7/2 — a price that might look attractive once the tote board opens. For a 5-furlong turf sprint, front-runners can have an edge, and if Hold My Hat breaks cleanly from the rail, this could be a wire-to-wire score.

place9Miracle On CentralML 8/1

Miracle On Central (No. 9) is the TrackWiz value play of this race — a 79.79 rating that makes her second-best in the field, yet she's sitting at 8/1 on the morning line. Her average speed figure of 55 is the best in the entire field, which is a significant edge in a 5-furlong turf sprint where pure pace can dictate everything. Trainer Keith G. Bourgeois keeps Colby J. Hernandez in the irons, and if she can transfer that raw speed to the turf, she's a massive overlay.

show4Max CollectorML 5/2

Max Collector (No. 4) rates third in our analysis at 77.07 and posts a 54 average speed figure alongside the top tier of this field. Harry Hernandez gets the mount for trainer Kirby Leonard, and at 5/2 morning line the public clearly respects this horse. He makes plenty of sense in a show position as a horse who likely runs consistently near the top of the pack.

Race 6

12:46 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 6 furlongs on the dirt featuring the deepest top end of any race on today's card — Mahoney Road and Donegal Light are separated by just over a point on the TrackWiz scale, and both have legitimate claims to the top spot.

win8Mahoney RoadML 2/1

Mahoney Road (No. 8) leads all allowance runners with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and owns an average speed figure of 55 that's tied for tops in the field. His 17% career win rate gives him a reliable foundation, and trainer Juan Munoz Cano deploys Elio J. Barrera — a combination that has shown up competitively at this level. The morning line of 2/1 is short, but when a horse is this dominant on the numbers in an allowance sprint, you follow the data.

place7Donegal LightML 5/2

Donegal Light (No. 7) is just 1.16 points behind Mahoney Road at 87.38 on the TrackWiz scale — and his 33% career win rate is the best in this field by a wide margin. Carlos Perez, one of the more active jockeys on the Evangeline circuit, has the call for trainer Dane Noel. At 5/2, Donegal Light is only a fraction of a point off the top horse on our scale and brings a proven winning pedigree that makes him extremely dangerous in the exacta.

show1GunsML 6/1

Guns (No. 1) rates third in this field at 80.11 with an 18% career win rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness. Casey Fusilier and trainer Allen Landry team up at 6/1 — solid value for a horse with legitimate allowance credentials in a 6-furlong sprint on the dirt. He's the type of consistent performer worth including in exotic plays, especially in a race where the top two could burn each other out in a pace duel.

Race 7

1:13 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A seven-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt where the TrackWiz ratings are clear — two horses separate from the pack, and the rest of the field is fighting for scraps in a race that could be decided before they hit the top of the stretch.

win5Polar WolfML 5/2

Polar Wolf (No. 5) owns the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden field at 87.81, tied with Get Them Justin from Race 4 for the highest mark of any maiden on today's card. He posts a 54 average speed figure and goes at 5/2 for trainer Veronica Litfin with Harry Hernandez aboard. In a maiden special weight — a step above maiden claiming and typically reserved for horses with some pedigree upside — a number like 87.81 demands respect, and this one looks like the standout.

place4Not BehavinML 9/2

Not Behavin (No. 4) brings a 78.47 TrackWiz rating into this spot — comfortably second in the field and a clear separation from the third-best horse. Juan P. Vargas has the mount for trainer Edith A. Mojica at 9/2, which offers solid each-way value. His average speed figure of 51 trails Polar Wolf slightly, but his overall rating profile keeps him firmly in the frame for a place finish.

show8ZampinoML 7/2

Zampino (No. 8) rounds out our TrackWiz selections at 74.78 and posts a 54 average speed figure that matches Polar Wolf's mark at the top of the field. Casey Fusilier rides for trainer Paul Duhon at 7/2 morning line — a price that suggests public respect. He's not far enough behind the top two horses to dismiss, and in a maiden race where form can be unpredictable, including Zampino in trifectas makes plenty of sense.

Race 8

1:40 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The biggest field of the day — twelve runners going a mile on the turf in an allowance optional claiming — and while Clearly My Star stands clear on the TrackWiz scale, Sacred Saint at double-digit odds offers the most intriguing value play on the whole card.

win4Clearly My StarML 7/2

Clearly My Star (No. 4) tops this crowded field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating, a significant edge in a field this large where the middle pack is tightly bunched. Harry Hernandez picks up the mount for trainer Shane Wilson, and at 7/2 she's a fair price given her clear numerical superiority. Her average speed figure of 53 is competitive for a mile on the turf, and in a field where pace could get complicated, a horse with a top rating often finds a way to sort things out.

place8Precious MoneyML 4/1

Precious Money (No. 8) sits second on our scale at 78.73 and leads the field with an average speed figure of 53 that she shares with several top runners. Trainer Gary J. Husak sends Juan P. Vargas out at 4/1, and at those odds there's genuine value in a horse ranked this high by our analysis. Her 8% career win rate is modest, but in allowance optional claiming company on the turf, she's dangerous enough to be in the exacta.

show6Sacred SaintML 10/1

Sacred Saint (No. 6) rates 69.98 on the TrackWiz scale — third in this race — and carries a 14% career win rate that suggests she knows how to run with the leaders. Isaac Castillo has the call for trainer Patricia G. West, and at 10/1 she's the kind of horse that makes trifecta tickets interesting. Her average speed of 54 is a touch better than the top two picks, and if the turf mile sets up as a stalker's race, she could be flying late.

Race 9

2:07 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a maiden claiming sprint at 5 furlongs on the dirt, and this is one of the more transparent races on the card — the top two on the TrackWiz scale are well clear, though several first-time starters with unknown profiles add a layer of unpredictability.

win3Spicy MustardML 3/1

Spicy Mustard (No. 3) tops the TrackWiz field at 74.44 in a maiden claiming race where several runners are first-time starters with limited data. Thomas L. Pompell takes the mount for trainer Lee Thomas at 3/1, and his average speed figure of 54 matches the best marks in the field. In a maiden claiming sprint where class often carries the day, a 74.44 rating with consistent speed figures is a compelling top selection.

place8Sid's ChicaML 4/1

Sid's Chica (No. 8) rates second in the field at 66.92 and is one of only two horses in the top tier posting an average speed figure of 54 — the top mark available in this spot. C.J. McMahon gets the mount for trainer Chadwick J. Mouton at 4/1, representing solid each-way value. In a maiden race with multiple first-time starters, having established speed figures and a competitive rating makes Sid's Chica a natural place selection.

show1Flash of FireML 2/1

Flash of Fire (No. 1) checks in at 58.33 on the TrackWiz scale and posts a 54 average speed figure that keeps her right in contention with the top runners. Isaac Castillo rides for trainer David Terre at 2/1 morning line — the public choice here — but the TrackWiz ratings suggest she's slightly outrated by the top two. She's a logical show candidate and worth using in trifecta combinations, particularly if the pace from the front-runners sets up a closer for Spicy Mustard.

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Nine races, clear skies, and serious heat — Evangeline Downs has all the ingredients for an interesting Saturday card. Our three free picks (Faye L., Struck Out, and Lucky Juan) give you a strong starting point, and Mahoney Road in Race 6 is the marquee horse on the entire card based on our ratings. For the full breakdown — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and every angle on all nine races — subscribers can access the complete TrackWiz analysis right now. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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