Daily Picks

Evangeline Picks & Predictions — July 10, 2026

Friday, July 10, 20269 racesEvangeline

It's a hot Louisiana Friday at Evangeline Downs — partly cloudy skies and 90°F on the thermometer, which means the dirt should be playing fast and the turf course will be at a premium for horses that handle warm-weather conditions. Nine races are on the card today, a solid mix of claiming races, a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming bouts, and a Maiden Special Weight to cap off the middle of the card.

The card stretches from sprints down to a flat mile on both surfaces, giving us plenty of angles to work with. The two turf miles — Races 3 and 8 — are the ones to watch if the grass is holding up in this heat. Meanwhile, the dirt looks like it could favor early pace today, so we'll be paying close attention to how the speed sets up in those sprints.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claimer where the top two TrackWiz ratings are separated by just 1.46 points, setting up a tight battle between a pair of contenders sitting well above the rest of a thin field.

win7Roll Gypsy RollML 3/1

Roll Gypsy Roll (No. 7) carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.08 and goes postward at a fair 3/1 morning line. Trainer Richard L. Mocklin, Jr. puts Juan P. Vargas aboard, a sharp booking at this level. With an average speed figure of 52 matching the top tier of this field, Roll Gypsy Roll profiles as a horse who should be comfortable going long on the dirt. The 11% career win rate isn't flashy, but the overall form profile makes this the most trustworthy play in the race.

place6Rusty's SunriseML 4/1

Rusty's Sunrise (No. 6) is actually the second-highest-rated horse in the field at 85.62 and deserves serious respect as a place option. The 4/1 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse whose average speed figure of 52 sits with the best in here. Trainer Isai V. Gonzalez also saddles the morning-line longshot in this race, suggesting a stable in good form — and Elio J. Barrera is a capable hand to guide this one home.

show2Molto VinoML 5/2

Molto Vino (No. 2) comes in as the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and sports a solid 77.81 TrackWiz rating — a meaningful edge over the bottom half of this nine-horse field. A 16% career win rate is respectable in a claiming field like this, and Carlos Perez is a reliable rider who should keep this one competitive throughout the mile. Solid exotic anchor at a sensible price.

Race 2

10:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Six and a half furlongs on dirt with a compact but competitive field — the pace figures to set up for closers, and there's a legitimate value overlay lurking just off the morning-line chalk.

win6CoattailsML 6/1

Coattails (No. 6) is our top selection at 6/1, carrying an 82.71 TrackWiz rating that leads the field and represents real upside at a generous price. The 21% career win rate is one of the stronger marks in this field, and trainer Paul Duhon keeps Casey Fusilier in the irons — a local combination worth respecting. Matching the pace group with a 54 average speed figure, Coattails should be able to sit close to the fractions and fire at the right moment over the 6.5-furlong trip.

place2Yockey's DrivethruML 5/1

Yockey's Drivethru (No. 2) posts an 80.82 TrackWiz rating and drew into the two-hole with Colby J. Hernandez up for trainer Sam B. David, Jr. The 5/1 morning line on the second-rated horse in the field looks like a mild overlay — likely because the public will focus on the 3/1 morning-line favorite. A 14% career win rate on its own isn't eye-catching, but the overall rating profile puts this one squarely in the mix.

show4BegforforgivenessML 3/1

Begforforgiveness (No. 4) is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 with the field's top average speed figure of 55 and an eye-catching 27% career win rate — that's the kind of consistency you want in your show tickets. Trained by Juan Munoz Cano alongside stablemate Mahoney Road, this barn clearly has horses ready to fire. Kevin Roman takes the mount, and the speed numbers suggest Begforforgiveness can be near the lead throughout.

Race 3

11:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Switching to the turf for a one-mile claimer, and the class of the field is Maylen — who opens at 9/2 despite owning a 20-point rating advantage over the next cluster of contenders.

win6MaylenML 9/2

Maylen (No. 6) is the standout in this turf mile, holding an 84.90 TrackWiz rating that towers over every other starter. Trainer George Leonard III deploys Elio J. Barrera, and that jockey has been active and competitive on this card. The 9/2 morning line looks like an overlay given the rating gap — this horse should attract more money than the line suggests once the public gets a look at the form. A 10% career win rate on the turf is modest but not alarming for this level.

place2Capella RedML 3/1

Capella Red (No. 2) is deadlocked in the TrackWiz ratings with Katerini at 64.26 and 64.14 respectively — but Capella Red is the 3/1 morning-line second choice, meaning the market agrees. Trainer Patricia G. West sends out Alexis X. Batista, and the 8% career win rate mirrors the competitive but winless profile of most horses in this field. At a fair price with the second-best rating, Capella Red belongs in your exacta and place tickets.

show1KateriniML 8/1

Katerini (No. 1) is essentially a coin flip with Capella Red on the ratings (64.14 vs. 64.26), and the 8/1 morning line makes this one of the better show-value plays on the board. Isaac Castillo is aboard for trainer Jonathan Wong, and drawing the rail in a turf route isn't always a negative at Evangeline. If the pace gets hot up front, Katerini could be the fresh horse that sneaks into the exacta at a price.

Our three free races cover the early part of the card and offer some genuine value. Roll Gypsy Roll opens things up in Race 1 at a mile on the dirt — posted at 3/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08, this one looks like a legit play at a reasonable price. Race 2 gives us Coattails at 6/1 in a 6½-furlong dirt sprint — that's the kind of morning-line price that gets our attention, and the rating of 82.71 suggests there's real upside here if the pace sets up right. Race 3 shifts to the turf for a one-mile claiming test, where Maylen (9/2, 84.90) has the profile to handle the distance in stride.

A theme across these free races: pace shape matters. In this heat, horses that can sit just off the early speed and strike late tend to hold up better down the stretch at Evangeline. Keep that in mind as you watch the early fractions.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open ten-horse claimer at 5.5 furlongs on dirt — but one horse separates itself dramatically on the TrackWiz model, and the morning line reflects that with a sharp 2/1 favorite.

win2Tarkington SunriseML 2/1

Tarkington Sunrise (No. 2) is the clear class of this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark on the entire card through these early races — and an 18% career win rate that's solid at this level. The 2/1 morning line makes this one of the shorter prices you'll see in a claiming race, but C.J. McMahon aboard for trainer Miguel Garcia is a combination worth backing when the numbers line up. With a 55 average speed figure leading all comers in this race, Tarkington Sunrise should be able to press or stalk the pace and have plenty left at the top of the stretch.

place9RidearoundsalleyML 3/1

Ridearoundsalley (No. 9) is the clear second choice in the TrackWiz rankings at 69.54 — a healthy 19-point gap separates this one from No. 3 on the list. Jansen Melancon takes the mount for trainer Allen Landry, and a 22% career win rate tells you this horse has been competitive and knows how to finish. At 3/1 on the morning line, the place price should be acceptable in exacta and quinella combinations with the favorite.

show7La PalabraML 12/1

La Palabra (No. 7) is a sneaky show-ticket inclusion at 12/1 — the third-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 55.27 despite being dismissed by the morning-line handicapper. Jose Luis Rodriguez keeps the mount for Isai V. Gonzalez, the same trainer who scored well in Race 1. A 15% career win rate is respectable, and the value case here is simple: the ratings say La Palabra belongs in the mix, and the morning line says the crowd disagrees. That's a show overlay worth playing.

Race 5

12:18 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Seven furlongs on dirt with a genuine two-horse battle at the top of the ratings, and a closer profile that could get a perfect setup if the speed duel develops as expected.

win4My ChulupaML 3/1

My Chulupa (No. 4) posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the clear top mark in this nine-horse field — and trainer Gerard Perron sends out Casey Fusilier, who's logged multiple mounts on today's card and knows this track. The 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse sitting this firmly above the competition. With a 14% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure matching the pace group, My Chulupa should be positioned to pounce if the front-runners get loose.

place2V CutML 5/2

V Cut (No. 2) holds an 80.11 TrackWiz rating and goes as the 5/2 morning-line second choice under Colby J. Hernandez for trainer Samuel Breaux. The 15% career win rate and 52 average speed figure suggest a horse that rates just off the pace and may prefer a target — exactly the setup this race could provide. In a two-horse TrackWiz race, V Cut is the natural place anchor.

show7Running RaggedML 8/1

Running Ragged (No. 7) at 8/1 is the third-best-rated horse in the field at 75.33 and offers meaningful show value if the top two get into each other. Isaac Castillo is aboard for Chadwick J. Mouton, and the 10% career win rate in a field where several horses are at 5-6% suggests Running Ragged has been knocking on the door. The 54 average speed figure puts this one competitive on the clock, and a smart trainer angle at a double-digit price makes it a legitimate show-ticket add.

Race 6

12:46 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Stepping up to allowance optional claiming company for six furlongs on dirt — Disco Ball dominates the ratings, but a pair of overlooked horses with high career win percentages could complicate the exacta.

win4Disco BallML 5/2

Disco Ball (No. 4) enters with the field's top TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and an eye-popping 33% career win rate — that's the kind of sustained excellence that screams class standout in an optional claimer. Jansen Melancon rides for trainer Randy Degeyter, Jr., and the 56 average speed figure ties for the highest in the field. At 5/2 on the morning line, this isn't a value play — it's a solid win bet for those looking to anchor exotics with confidence.

place1LagoonML 4/1

Lagoon (No. 1) opens at 4/1 with a 71.31 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate — a consistent performer who posts the field's top average speed figure of 56 alongside Disco Ball and Our Favorite Son. Kevin Roman takes the mount for trainer Kearney Segura, and drawing the rail in a sprint doesn't necessarily hurt here. As the most likely beneficiary of any trouble involving the favorite, Lagoon is a smart place play.

show8PayneML 3/1

Payne (No. 8) sits at 68.67 on the TrackWiz model and owns a 25% career win rate that stands out in this field. Casey Fusilier rides for Allen Landry — a barn that's had horses competitive throughout the card today. The 3/1 morning line means the public respects Payne, and with a 55 average speed figure, this one can stay engaged at six furlongs without getting buried by pace. A solid show and exotic anchor at a workable price.

Race 7

1:13 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight fillies going seven furlongs on the dirt — a first-out or lightly raced field means raw ability and trainer patterns matter more than past results, and the form lines are thin across the board.

win7All YouML 3/1

All You (No. 7) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 72.54 — a meaningful edge over the rest of the field — and trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a name that commands respect in maiden special weight company. Jansen Melancon gets the call, one of the more active and accomplished riders on this card. A 54 average speed figure shows this filly has already demonstrated ability in the mornings or in past outings, and the 3/1 morning line confirms the market is on board.

place3Metry MamaML 10/1

Metry Mama (No. 3) is an intriguing place play at 10/1 — the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 58.69 despite being dismissed on the morning line. Isaac Castillo rides for Shane Wilson, and a 54 average speed figure is competitive in this group. In maiden races, overlooked horses trained by active conditioners with solid clockers can spring upsets, and the value in the place pool makes Metry Mama a smart ticket inclusion.

show4Della DoML 5/2

Della Do (No. 4) is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 with a 57.50 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure — the highest raw speed mark in this maiden field. Trainer Ronnie P. Ward puts Juan P. Vargas up, and a horse with the fastest average speed number in a maiden sprint deserves respect even at a short price. Solid show option and exacta backbone.

Race 8

1:40 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The turf route in late evening brings the card's most intriguing top-heavy battle — A Million Moons sits atop the ratings as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, but Star Rock Star and Kenmore West make this a three-horse affair worth structuring carefully.

win4A Million MoonsML 2/1

A Million Moons (No. 4) carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — tied for the highest on the entire card — and posts a 25% career win rate that's the best among the top three contenders. Colby J. Hernandez gets the mount for trainer Henry B. Johnson, Jr., and the 2/1 morning line reflects just how much this horse stands apart. An average speed figure of 53 keeps this one competitive at a one-mile turf trip, and the profile screams class horse dropping into a manageable spot.

place3Star Rock StarML 9/5

Star Rock Star (No. 3) is the 9/5 morning-line second choice with a 75.98 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate — both marks suggest a horse that fires regularly and belongs here. Isaac Castillo rides for trainer Shane Wilson, who also saddles Fran's Star in this race, indicating the barn has options. A 54 average speed figure leads the field on the clock, which could mean this one has the raw gear to challenge on the front end and carry it to the wire.

show6Kenmore WestML 8/1

Kenmore West (No. 6) is the most interesting show play on today's card — an 8/1 morning-line price on a horse with a 72.56 TrackWiz rating and an outstanding 33% career win rate. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun, who also fields All You in Race 7, clearly has his horses sharp, and C.J. McMahon is a capable turf hand. The win rate alone — 33% career — suggests this horse hits the board far more often than the price implies, making Kenmore West an excellent value in exotics.

Race 9

2:07 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Closing the card with a six-furlong dirt claimer that features a clear top-rated contender paired with a surprising overlay in the place position — and a value angle in show that the morning line hasn't caught up to.

win5Kitten GlovesML 5/2

Kitten Gloves (No. 5) tops this field at an 83.27 TrackWiz rating and goes as the 5/2 morning-line choice under Jansen Melancon for trainer Randy Degeyter, Jr. — who also saddles stablemate Stormy Lou, suggesting this barn is comfortable in this spot. A 12% career win rate in a field where several horses are at 4-6% shows this filly has been competitive on a consistent basis. The 54 average speed figure is among the best in the race, and Melancon's familiarity with the local circuit makes this a well-timed combination to close the night.

place8It Ain't Like ThatML 10/1

It Ain't Like That (No. 8) is a genuine overlay at 10/1 morning line, carrying a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that makes it the second-best horse in the field. Kevin Roman takes the mount for trainer Juan Munoz Cano, whose barn has multiple runners across the card today — always a sign of a conditioner in form. A 54 average speed figure ties for the highest here, and an 11% career win rate says this horse has been competitive without always closing the deal. At double-digit odds, this is the value play of the closer races.

show4Tied the KnotML 3/1

Tied the Knot (No. 4) checks in at 63.45 on the TrackWiz model — third-best in the field — with a 20% career win rate that leads all starters in this race. Isaac Castillo rides for trainer Justin Jeansonne, and a 20% win rate tells you this horse has been a reliable performer. At 3/1 on the morning line, Tied the Knot won't pay much to show, but if you're building a trifecta to close the card, this is the kind of consistent, lower-risk horse you want to anchor the third spot.

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Bottom line: Evangeline is serving up a well-rounded nine-race card on a hot summer Friday, and there's value spread across multiple distances and surfaces. Roll Gypsy Roll, Coattails, and Maylen headline the free side — but the real firepower is in the back half of the card with Tarkington Sunrise, A Million Moons, and a Disco Ball sprint worth building around. Full analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket breakdowns are waiting for subscribers — check out TrackWiz Premium and make the most of today's card.

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