Daily Picks

Evangeline Picks & Predictions — July 4, 2026

Saturday, July 4, 20269 racesEvangeline

Happy Fourth of July from Evangeline Downs, where the holiday card rolls out nine races under partly cloudy skies and a sizzling 90°F. The heat is real out there — and if you've been around Louisiana racing in the summer, you know conditions like these can play tricks on pace scenarios and surface speed, especially as the afternoon wears on.

Today's card has something for everyone: maiden sprints to open, a pair of turf allowances, a stakes race on the lawn to anchor the back end, and plenty of claiming action in between. Three races are on us — free to all TrackWiz readers — with six more locked behind our premium analysis. Nine races, a full holiday slate, and at least one overlay worth circling.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight sprint where no horse has a prior racing record to lean on — pure projection and TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders from the field fillers.

win4Max AttackML 2/1

Max Attack tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 in a field where every horse is breaking their maiden, and the 2/1 morning line confirms the market agrees with that assessment. In a race this raw, having the highest composite rating over five furlongs of dirt is a meaningful edge — there's no past performance baggage working against this horse. Trainer Jayde J. Gelner sends out Elio J. Barrera, a competent combination for a short sprint, and getting to the lead early in a maiden dash could be all this horse needs.

place2Runaway JuryML 3/1

Runaway Jury rates out second in the field at 56.67 and draws the 2-hole under C.J. McMahon, giving trainer Ricky Courville a clean setup at 3/1. In a maiden sprint, clean trips matter enormously, and the inside-out positioning here could be a real advantage if Max Attack draws heat on the front end.

show3Tevs Fast DashML 4/1

Tevs Fast Dash checks in at a 55.0 rating — just a hair behind Runaway Jury — and represents a solid third option at 4/1 with trainer Edith A. Mojica. With no prior times to compare, this entire top three is projection-based, making a show inclusion or exacta box across these three a reasonable exotic play.

Race 2

10:57 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

Antiphon looks like a dominant class standout in this one-mile turf allowance, but Mardi Gras Empire and a compact second tier could make the exotics very playable if the favorite gets into any trouble.

win6AntiphonML 2/1

Antiphon posts the field's top TrackWiz rating by a significant margin at 88.54, drawing the 2/1 morning line on the turf for trainer Shane Wilson and jockey Harry Hernandez. The horse averages a 54 speed figure and carries a 16% career win rate — respectable numbers for a turf route. Wilson saddles two horses in this race, which suggests confidence in the barn's form, and Hernandez's familiarity with Wilson's turf horses is an added positive. At 2/1, this is a deserving favorite, not a vulnerable one.

place2Mardi Gras EmpireML 3/1

Mardi Gras Empire rates at 74.07 — the second-highest figure in the field — and goes postward at 3/1 with trainer Jayde J. Gelner and jockey Jamison Mudd. Averaging a 53 speed figure around two turns on the turf, this horse profiles as the logical main threat to Antiphon and a strong inclusion in exactas.

show7InchhighatahundredML 9/2

Inchhighatahundred sits third on our ratings at 64.44 and goes off at 9/2, offering a touch of value in a field that has a couple of longshot hoarders dragging down the pool. Trainer Samuel Breaux's runner averages a 52 speed figure for the turf mile, and at nearly 5-1 odds, this is a useful show or trifecta anchor.

Race 3

11:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Uxmal enters this one-mile dirt claimer as a clear class standout on the ratings, but the pace picture gets interesting with Home Visit also boasting strong figures — expect a genuine speed duel with room for a closer to sneak in.

win1UxmalML 7/2

Uxmal leads this field comfortably with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and draws in with jockey Isaac Castillo for trainer Jonathan Wong at a generous 7/2 on the morning line. The 11% career win rate is modest, but in a claiming field this competitive, pure figure superiority tends to win out. Averaging a 52 speed figure, Uxmal is pace-neutral and should have the tactical flexibility to track the speed or roll off the front — either way, the ratings edge is hard to ignore.

place7Home VisitML 5/2

Home Visit is the pace-setter that keeps this honest — a 73.3 rating with a 53 average speed figure and a 17% career win rate under Juan P. Vargas for trainer David Terre. Posted at 5/2, Home Visit is almost the co-favorite here, and if Uxmal encounters any trouble from the rail, this horse has the raw numbers to win outright. A solid exacta partner with the top pick.

show2Get Them JustinML 2/1

Get Them Justin comes in as the 2/1 morning line favorite, though our ratings (56.24) suggest the market may be slightly overvaluing this one relative to the top two. That said, a 15% career win rate and a 52 average speed figure give Thomas L. Pompell a live mount for trainer Kearney Segura, and at a short price, the show pool here could be thin — making this a viable hedge in exactas.

Our three free races today span the full spectrum — a maiden sprint to kick things off, an allowance mile on the turf, and a dirt claiming mile right in the heart of the card. Max Attack draws our attention in Race 1, a five-furlong maiden on the dirt where early speed figures to matter. Over on the turf in Race 2, Antiphon carries a strong TrackWiz rating of 88.54 into a one-mile allowance — that's a number that commands respect at morning line odds of 2/1. Then in Race 3, Uxmal comes in at 7/2 on the morning line with an 86-plus rating, making the claiming mile a race with genuine value potential if the favorite slips up.

One thing to watch across the board today: with temps pushing 90 in southern Louisiana, horses breaking from outside posts in sprints may be working harder early than usual. We like to see how the first couple of races develop before locking in our sprint opinions — pace can get honest in a hurry on a hot holiday afternoon.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:51 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This sprawling eleven-horse maiden claimer has a clear top three on our ratings, but the presence of several first-timers with no speed averages means the pace is hard to map — keep an eye on who breaks sharp from the gate.

win4Toms Lucky MoML 2/1

Toms Lucky Mo is the standout on every metric we have — a commanding 88.54 TrackWiz rating, an average speed figure of 51, and the 2/1 morning line under Kelvin Arana for trainer Shelton J. Zenon, Sr. In an eleven-horse maiden claimer going a mile on dirt, having the top rating by over 11 points is a meaningful advantage. Trainer Zenon Sr. sending out his best-rated runner suggests full intent here, and Arana's tactical ability to settle a first-time starter on a route should help.

place6Life's RideML 5/2

Life's Ride rates at 76.94 — second in the field — and posts a 52 average speed figure, matching the top tier. Trainer Rickey N. Castille puts Juan P. Vargas in the irons at 5/2, a fair price for a horse that figures to be chasing a strong pace scenario. If Toms Lucky Mo goes out hard, Life's Ride has the profile to reel it in late.

show11Nelle Tue ManiML 8/1

Nelle Tue Mani jumps out as a legitimate value play at 8/1 — a 71.39 rating (third best in the field) with a 52 average speed figure for trainer Randy Pedigo and jockey Harry Hernandez. In an eleven-horse field at a mile, that rating at 8-1 is the kind of spot where exotics bettors can get real value in the trifecta. The price suggests the market hasn't fully caught up to this one.

Race 5

12:18 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Echo Down enters this five-furlong dirt claimer as a dominant figure horse, but Pasketee's superior average speed figure and Storm Sniper's impressive win rate make this a race worth keying — not fading — in multi-race wagers.

win5Echo DownML 9/5

Echo Down is a monster on the numbers — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate under jockey Jansen Melancon for trainer Anthony Arey. Half the time this horse has run in its career, it's gone to the winner's circle. The 9/5 morning line is short, but the stats back it up completely. Averaging a 54 speed figure over five furlongs of dirt, Echo Down should control or press the pace and be very difficult to run down.

place7PasketeeML 7/2

Pasketee actually leads the field in average speed figure at 56 — the only horse in the race above 55 — and posts a solid 27% career win rate at 7/2 under C.J. McMahon for trainer Randy Degeyter, Jr. That average speed number is a key differentiator: if Echo Down has an off day or gets caught in traffic, Pasketee has the raw pace to blow past the field. A strong exacta partner.

show3Storm SniperML 3/1

Storm Sniper rates third at 78.25 with a standout 37% career win rate — the second-highest win rate in the race — and averages a 55 speed figure at 3/1 for trainer Rylee Magnon and jockey Devin H. Magnon. The trainer-jockey connection here is family, and family operations with this kind of win percentage don't show up without a live shot. A trifecta including this one at 3/1 is worth the ticket.

Race 6

12:46 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Diva Beach looks like the horse to beat in this one-mile turf allowance optional claimer, but Moonie Pie is right there on the ratings and the morning line is close enough to make the top half of the exotics worth spreading.

win4Diva BeachML 9/5

Diva Beach tops the field at 88.83 — matching the highest rating we've seen on today's card — and goes for trainer W. Bret Calhoun with jockey C.J. McMahon at 9/5 on the turf. The combination of an 18% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure checks every box for a one-mile turf route. Calhoun is a respected barn and McMahon is a sharp rider; the favorite tag feels earned here, not inflated.

place3Moonie PieML 7/2

Moonie Pie rates at 83.54 — just five points off the top — and boasts an 18% career win rate with a 54 average speed figure, which actually leads the field by that measure. Trainer Sam B. David, Jr. puts Elio J. Barrera up at 7/2, and this horse has the raw speed numbers to push Diva Beach all the way to the wire. An excellent exacta partner going the other direction as well.

show2Viv's Wild AcesML 9/2

Viv's Wild Aces checks in at 72.71 with a 13% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure, sitting at 9/2 for trainer Antonio Alberto and jockey Jansen Melancon. The gap between Viv's Wild Aces and the top two is real, but in a turf route where pace scenarios can scramble results, having the third-best rating at a fair price makes this a useful trifecta leg.

Race 7

1:13 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Drilling Report separates itself atop the ratings in this starter optional claiming sprint, but Baron of the Nile's elite career win rate and Avery's Gem's intriguing profile set up a very competitive five-furlong battle.

win3Drilling ReportML 5/2

Drilling Report leads with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and posts a 55 average speed figure — right in the heart of the pace for this five-furlong dirt race. Under javier Antonio Hernandez for trainer Juan A. Larrosa, this horse draws in at 5/2 on a field where several others have legitimate credentials. A 15% career win rate is modest, but the rating advantage is the largest of any horse in this race, and speed figure consistency over the sprint distance is the most reliable predictor in a starter optional claiming context.

place4RocketeightyeightML 3/1

Rocketeightyeight rates second at 70.2 and stands out as the lone horse in the field averaging a 56 speed figure — tops in the race by that measure. Trainer Sarah Martinez and jockey Julio Ramirez, Jr. go postward at 3/1, and if the pace collapses in front, that raw speed number becomes the decisive factor. A strong place play with upside.

show5Avery's GemML 8/1

Avery's Gem sits at 67.94 with a 55 average speed figure and goes at 8/1 — representing genuine value relative to the ratings. Trainer Eduardo Ramirez puts Harry Hernandez up, and at that price, the show pool and trifecta inclusion makes this the best risk-reward horse in the bottom half of the exotics. Hernandez has multiple mounts today and knows this circuit cold.

Race 8

1:40 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The night's marquee stakes race on turf goes a flat mile and sixteenth, and our top pick E Lion is a genuine overlay — the morning line underestimates this horse's rating advantage over a field that includes a deceptively short-priced favorite.

win6E LionML 6/1

E Lion posts an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — and pairs an exceptional 36% career win rate with a 54 average speed figure at 6/1. That 36% win rate is elite at any level, and the fact that the market has this horse at 6/1 in a stakes with those credentials smells like genuine overlay territory. Trainer Shane Wilson and jockey Harry Hernandez team up here, and Wilson has already saddled a strong contender in Race 2 tonight — the barn is live on the card.

place8Perry CountyML 5/2

Perry County rates at 76.12 and carries a 21% career win rate with a 53 average speed figure under C.J. McMahon for trainer Veronica Litfin at 5/2. The morning line favorite position might be slightly inflated, but the numbers support a strong place projection — Perry County profiles as the most likely horse to be there when E Lion finishes, and the exacta at 6/1 into 5/2 is worth keying.

show5Point ProvenML 9/5

Point Proven checks in at 71.86 with a 26% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure at 9/5 — that's the morning line favorite, and it's a horse we're comfortable fading slightly in win but including in show. Trainer David Terre and jockey Juan P. Vargas are a workmanlike combination, and the 26% win rate keeps this horse honest in a competitive stakes field. Trifecta coverage with Point Proven at the bottom is sensible.

Race 9

2:07 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse dirt sprint at five and a half furlongs to close out the card, and Jade's Wicked Doll is a massive standout on ratings — but the pace could be hot with multiple speed types, creating a real opportunity for something to close late.

win11Jade's Wicked DollML 3/1

Jade's Wicked Doll is the class of this field and it's not particularly close — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating in a claiming sprint where the next-best horse (Kara Flash) rates 69.96. Under Javier Antonio Hernandez for trainer Eric Ramaekers, this horse runs at 3/1, which feels about right given the figure advantage. A 16% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure at five and a half furlongs on dirt lines up perfectly with the distance. The main risk is pace collapse if this horse gets caught in traffic early.

place5Kara FlashML 6/1

Kara Flash rates at 69.96 — a full 17 points clear of third place — and posts a 54 average speed figure under Carlos Perez for trainer Juan A. Larrosa at 6/1. The 7% career win rate is low, but that might simply reflect class placement history more than raw ability. At 6/1, this horse represents legitimate value as a place play and the strongest exacta partner with the top pick.

show6Miss MakeithappenML 4/1

Miss Makeithappen is third on our ratings at 57.5, also averaging a 54 speed figure, and goes off at 4/1 under Isaac Castillo for trainer Ricky Demouchet. The 7% career win rate mirrors Kara Flash, but the rating and price make this the logical third wheel in the trifecta. In a race with multiple mid-level speed figures, the closing scenario could set up nicely for this one to grab a piece.

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A nine-race Fourth of July card at Evangeline with legit angles from the first sprint to the stakes closer — that's a full afternoon worth showing up for. Antiphon and Uxmal headline the free picks, and E Lion at 6/1 in the turf stakes is the marquee value play on the card. Want the full breakdown, exotic tickets, and pace projections for every race? Subscribers get it all — check out our plans at /pricing and don't miss a race today.

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