Daily Picks

Evangeline Picks & Predictions — May 23, 2026

Saturday, May 23, 20269 racesEvangeline

It's a wet Saturday at Evangeline Downs. Rain is falling and temps are sitting at a muggy 78°F, which means the turf course is going to be a real conversation piece today. Three of the nine races are carded on the grass, and with moisture in the ground, expect surface management to play a big role in how those events unfold. Horses with wet-turf experience — or a proven ability to handle a soft, yielding surface — move up significantly in our ratings today.

Nine races are on the board, spanning maiden claimers, straight claimers, and a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming spots that represent the day's best competitive tests. There's legitimate spread across the card — we've got morning-line favorites as tight as 9/5 and as loose as 5/1, meaning the public hasn't locked in hard on some of these, and that's exactly where TrackWiz analysis earns its keep.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader today. The remaining six are part of our full-card premium breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden claiming mile on the turf with every horse sitting at zero career wins, but TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear two-horse class split at the top — with a few wildcards lurking underneath.

win10Struck OutML 4/1

Struck Out (No. 10) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — the highest mark in the field — and comes in at a juicy morning line of 4/1, making this a genuine value play rather than just a chalk bet. The average speed figure of 52 is in line with the field's mid-pack, but it's the overall rating that separates this one, suggesting strong underlying form signals. Jockey Jamison Mudd gets the call for trainer Emile Schwandt, a pairing worth watching on a turf route where trip management matters. In a maiden field where no one has broken through yet, the horse with the sharpest rating often has the best shot at doing it first.

place5El ChavoML 2/1

El Chavo (No. 5) is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and posts a TrackWiz rating of 80.15 — second-best in the race — giving trainer Isai V. Gonzalez a horse with genuine win credentials even if we're slotting him for place here. Joel Dominguez is one of the more active riders on the Evangeline circuit and will have this one positioned for a run. At 2/1 the win price won't excite, but he's a natural for exotics as the most likely horse to run into the exacta.

show1Brock's BoyML 6/1

Brock's Boy (No. 1) shows a rating of 72.56 and ties Lawless Ways for the field's best average speed figure at 53 — a meaningful edge in a mile turf maiden where stamina and late pace matter. Trainer George Leonard III puts Elio J. Barrera aboard from the rail, which on a turf course can be a real advantage if the horse settles early and finds a clean trip. At 6/1 on the morning line, he's a solid show horse and a legitimate exacta underneath component.

Race 2

10:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite in this 7-furlong dirt claimer is overbet relative to TrackWiz ratings — our top-rated horse sits at 3/1 and brings a massive rating advantage that makes this look like a potential overlay situation.

win5Hard SpiritsML 3/1

Hard Spirits (No. 5) dominates this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — nearly 25 points clear of the next-best — while posting the morning line of 3/1, which looks like excellent value given that separation. Trainer Isai V. Gonzalez is the same barn that fields El Chavo in Race 1, showing a strong book of horses on the card today. Jockey Joel Dominguez pairs up again, giving the barn a reliable pilot. A 5% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a claiming field at seven furlongs on dirt, raw speed and form figures typically do the heavy lifting.

place3Baby JaneML 6/1

Baby Jane (No. 3) carries an 11% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 62.02 — third-best in this field — at a morning line of 6/1, which makes her a standout value play in the exotics. Trainer Gerard Perron puts Casey Fusilier up, and at seven furlongs on dirt, a horse with Baby Jane's win percentage can show up big at prices that reward each-way thinking. She's the kind of 6/1 shot that makes exactas and trifectas pay.

show7Cheyenne MoonML 5/2

Cheyenne Moon (No. 7) is the morning line choice at 5/2 and matches Baby Jane's 11% career win rate, but a TrackWiz rating of 59.88 puts her slightly behind the pace of this analysis. Juan P. Vargas gets the mount for trainer Carl J. Woodley, and at 53 average speed she's competitive on raw figures. The slight overlay in the win pool may inflate her price given our model has Hard Spirits well clear, making Cheyenne Moon a better show or underneath exotic play than a win single.

Race 3

11:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A tight five-furlong sprint on dirt where the morning line favorite and our top-rated horse are different horses — Daddy's Gift at 9/2 carries the highest TrackWiz score, while Sand Street goes off at 9/5, setting up a potential value situation.

win5Daddy's GiftML 9/2

Daddy's Gift (No. 5) is our top pick at a 84.9 TrackWiz rating and brings the field's best average speed figure at 56 — a meaningful edge in a five-furlong sprint where early speed is everything. The 27% career win rate is exceptional, ranking among the best in this field, and trainer Eduardo Ramirez sends him out with Harry Hernandez up. At 9/2 on the morning line while the public leans on Sand Street at 9/5, Daddy's Gift looks like the standout value play of the race.

place1Sand StreetML 9/5

Sand Street (No. 1) will be heavily favored at 9/5 and owns the field's best career win rate at 33% — one in every three starts is a win, which is elite by any measure. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez puts Jamison Mudd aboard, and the 55 average speed figure matches the rail post's historical edge at Evangeline in sprints. Even as the public pick, Sand Street belongs in your exotics underneath as a reliable place component.

show4OceolaML 12/1

Oceola (No. 4) is the value show play here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 58.21 at a generous 12/1 morning line with a 55 average speed figure that matches Sand Street. Trainer Terry L. Schultz hands the reins to Joel Dominguez, a top pilot who can put horses in the right spot at five furlongs. At double-digit odds, Oceola makes this trifecta look attractive if the top two run as expected — don't leave her off your tickets.

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give you a solid early-card foundation to work from. Race 1 is a mile maiden claimer on the turf, and with rain already in the picture, Struck Out (morning line 4/1, TrackWiz rating 85.62) profiles as a horse who can handle whatever the course dishes out. Race 2 shifts to the dirt for 7 furlongs of straight claiming action, where Hard Spirits (3/1 ML, 87.08 rating) sits as our top-rated horse on the afternoon card among the free picks. And Race 3 is a quick five-panel dirt sprint — Daddy's Gift (9/2 ML, 84.90 rating) gives us a slight overlay angle if the morning line holds at the window.

The through-line on these three? Pace. All three races project as front-loaded sprints or moderate-tempo routes where horses that can settle early and fire late — or simply clear to daylight — have a real edge. The wet conditions won't factor heavily on the dirt in Races 2 and 3 unless the track cupps up significantly, but keep an eye on the surface reports before you finalize your tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A full field of 13 for this 7½-furlong turf claimer, and it's one of the deeper, trickier races on the card — three horses are bunched between 76 and 84 in the TrackWiz ratings, with the morning line underestimating at least two of them.

win1WeekendsandwhiskeyML 5/2

Weekendsandwhiskey (No. 1) tops our ratings at 84.49 and draws the rail in a turf race — a post that can be tricky at 7½ furlongs but rewards a horse with enough tactical speed to find clear air. Trainer Scott Gelner puts Elio J. Barrera up, and the 16% career win rate is respectable in what is a competitive field. At 5/2 morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated horse, and the rating gap over most of this 13-horse field is wide enough to feel confident.

place13Nobel GaryML 8/1

Nobel Gary (No. 13) sits at 79.79 on our ratings — second-best in the race — but carries a morning line of 8/1, which is where the value lives in this race. Trainer Jonathan Wong sends him out with Isaac Castillo from the outside post, which on turf can actually be beneficial as the horse avoids early traffic on the first turn. A 4% career win rate is modest, but the raw rating suggests the form cycle is on the upswing, and this looks like exactly the kind of overlay that rewards place and exacta bettors.

show6Max CollectorML 5/1

Max Collector (No. 6) posts the field's best average speed figure at 56 and carries a TrackWiz rating of 76.38 — putting him squarely in the mix for the show spot. Carlos Perez takes the mount for trainer Kirby Leonard, and at 5/1 on the morning line, he's available at a fair price. The combination of raw speed and a competitive rating makes Max Collector a natural show bet and a useful piece underneath in trifectas.

Race 5

12:18 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Another maiden claiming mile, this time on dirt — and it's a lightly experienced field where our top two horses are well clear of the pack and the morning line has them priced in reverse order of our ratings.

win8Miss MaddieML 5/1

Miss Maddie (No. 8) leads all horses here with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating while sitting at 5/1 on the morning line — a clear overlay when you consider the public is leaning toward Ancho (5/2) and Call Me Dolly (7/2). Trainer Emile Schwandt hands the mount to Isaac Castillo, one of the busiest riders on the grounds. The 51 average speed figure leads the field, and in a maiden mile on dirt, a horse with top figures and a form edge at value odds is exactly the kind of opportunity we look for.

place5AnchoML 5/2

Ancho (No. 5) rates second in the field at 75.07 and is one of the public's preferred choices at 5/2, which is reasonable given the profile — trainer Shelton J. Zenon Sr. has Javier Antonio Hernandez in the irons, and the 51 average speed figure is competitive. The gap between Ancho and Miss Maddie in our model is meaningful, but he's close enough that a place finish is well within reach, making him a solid second slot in exactas.

show1Call Me DollyML 7/2

Call Me Dolly (No. 1) is priced at 7/2 by the morning line makers — likely on trainer/jockey reputation with Casey Fusilier and Phillip Mark Dison teaming up — but our TrackWiz rating of 62.73 and a 49 average speed figure slot her third in the field. The rail post in a one-mile maiden on dirt can be helpful if she breaks cleanly and avoids early crowding. At morning-line prices she offers modest show value, and she's a reasonable underneath piece in wider exotic wagers.

Race 6

12:46 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming sprint at six furlongs on dirt features a legitimate pace battle brewing — multiple horses with strong average speed figures and a morning line that doesn't fully reflect our top-rated horse's edge.

win4Drilling ReportML 5/1

Drilling Report (No. 4) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 79.56 while sitting at 5/1 on the morning line — an overlay on a horse that should be closer to 5/2 based on our model. Javier Antonio Hernandez gets the call for trainer Juan A. Larrosa, the same barn that fields Astrologysprotege in this race, showing confidence in both horses but Drilling Report clearly rates higher. A 55 average speed figure and a 15% career win rate are solid credentials for an allowance optional claimer, and the pairing of a top-rated horse at a fair price makes this our primary play.

place7Ranch WaterML 8/1

Ranch Water (No. 7) is a compelling value play at 8/1, sitting second in our ratings at 75.19 under Joel Dominguez for trainer Juan Munoz Cano. The 13% career win rate is respectable at this level, and at eight times your money to win the place pool should be generous. Ranch Water is the kind of horse that sneaks into trifecta payoffs and makes exotic players very happy — don't overlook him just because he lacks public attention.

show2CharcoML 12/1

Charco (No. 2) rates 73.96 with a 20% career win rate — that's one of the better strike rates in this field — and goes at 12/1, which is strikingly generous for a horse with that profile. Trainer Sturges J. Ducoing puts Timothy Thornton up, and the 56 average speed figure matches the top guns in the race. At double-digit odds in a competitive allowance field, Charco is a legitimate show bet and a high-upside trifecta closer.

Race 7

1:13 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A sharp six-furlong dirt claimer where three horses cluster between 77 and 81 in our ratings, but the morning line has them scattered from 4/1 to 8/1 — exacta and trifecta bettors should be licking their chops at these prices.

win3Red BarronML 4/1

Red Barron (No. 3) leads our ratings at 81.38 and carries the intriguing combination of a 33% career win rate with a 4/1 morning line — one in three starts ends in a win and you're getting fair odds. Trainer Carrol Castille sends out Timothy Thornton, and the 54 average speed figure is right at the top of this field. In a six-furlong sprint on dirt where horses with high win percentages tend to assert themselves quickly, Red Barron fits the profile of a horse that should be right there at the wire.

place2Echo DownML 8/1

Echo Down (No. 2) is the sleeper of this race — a 50% career win rate is outright remarkable, meaning this horse wins more often than not when it runs. Trainer Anthony Arey puts Jansen Melancon up, and the 79.79 TrackWiz rating is just a tick behind Red Barron. At 8/1 on the morning line, the win price alone is worth a serious look, but we're using Echo Down as our place anchor in exotics because a horse that wins half its races figures to hit the board at a very high clip.

show5ConcentrationML 5/2

Concentration (No. 5) posts a 76.77 rating at 5/2 morning line — the public's second choice — with Isaac Castillo up for trainer Alexis Claire. The 6% career win rate is the one blemish, but the raw ratings and a 53 average speed figure make her a board horse. She's a natural show play here and a logical exacta underneath if Echo Down fires at his price, which would create a juicy ticket.

Race 8

1:40 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

An allowance optional claimer at five furlongs on the turf — and Six String is a dominant figure in our ratings with a career profile that suggests this horse simply wins a lot, making the 9/5 morning line look like fair value in a race where several others have legitimate credentials.

win2Six StringML 9/5

Six String (No. 2) is the clear class of this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — top by more than 13 points — and owns a 42% career win rate that is absolutely elite at any level. Casey Fusilier picks up the mount for trainer Allen Landry, and the 56 average speed figure puts Six String at the top of the speed hierarchy in a five-furlong turf sprint where pace is king. The 9/5 morning line makes this a short-odds play, but when a horse wins nearly half its races and leads all comers in our model, you play it — this is the rare favorite worth trusting.

place7Sassi StrutterML 2/1

Sassi Strutter (No. 7) is no slouch — a 75.37 rating and a 40% career win rate makes her the second-most accomplished horse in this field on both metrics. Thomas L. Pompell rides for trainer Lee Thomas, and the 56 average speed figure matches Six String. If anything goes sideways with the favorite, Sassi Strutter is absolutely capable of winning outright, so the place slot here is conservative — she might be the most natural exacta key horse on the card today.

show4Bayou BertieML 4/1

Bayou Bertie (No. 4) rounds out our top three at 70.26 with a 33% career win rate — the third-best strike rate in the field — and trainer Alan Klanfer, who also trains the pace-stalking Gangster Flash in this race, clearly has a strong book for this spot. C.J. McMahon gets the call, and the 57 average speed figure is actually the highest in the field. Bayou Bertie's combination of raw speed and win percentage makes her a live show contender and an important piece in trifecta construction.

Race 9

2:07 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Closing out the card is a maiden claiming sprint at six furlongs on dirt — a wide-open group of first-time-or-still-looking types, but TrackWiz ratings show a decisive top two with Custom Value and Call Fern well clear of the rest.

win4Custom ValueML 3/1

Custom Value (No. 4) dominates this maiden field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race by more than 10 points — and goes at 3/1 on the morning line, which represents real value for the standout contender. Junior Inirio gets the mount for trainer Shelton J. Zenon Sr., a pairing that knows how to win at Evangeline. The 53 average speed figure leads the field for horses with available data, and in a maiden sprint where the best-rated horse typically has the clearest path to graduation, Custom Value looks like the most straightforward win play of the evening.

place9Call FernML 4/1

Call Fern (No. 9) rates a solid 76.41 at 4/1 on the morning line — second in the ratings and the second choice in the betting — with Casey Fusilier up for trainer Phillip Mark Dison, the same barn that sends out Call Me Dolly in Race 5. Fusilier is an active rider who gives maiden horses a confident trip, and the 52 average speed figure is competitive. If Custom Value handles this field as expected, Call Fern is the most likely place finisher and a natural exacta partner.

show1Flora BoundML 5/2

Flora Bound (No. 1) draws the rail and rates 62.33 — third in the field — at a 5/2 morning line that makes her the public's top choice despite our model ranking her behind two horses priced longer. Harry Hernandez gets the call for trainer Samuel Breaux, and the 52 average speed figure is respectable. Flora Bound is the kind of horse that the betting public trusts, and even if our model likes others more, the rail post in a maiden sprint and a capable jockey-trainer team give her enough to land on the board for show.

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Bottom line: it's a rainy, value-rich Saturday at Evangeline. Hard Spirits headlines the free plays, Six String is the highest-rated horse on the card, and there's legitimate overlay potential lurking in the premium races. The free picks are live right now — and if you want the full nine-race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategies, our subscribers have it all waiting at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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