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Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — September 7, 2026

September 7, 20268 racesAll Emerald Downs picks

Labor Day weekend wraps up at Emerald Downs with a full 8-race card on a beautiful Pacific Northwest afternoon — 69°F, partly cloudy, and conditions that should have the main track playing fair and honest. No excuses for anyone today, which is exactly how we like it.

The card is stacked with claiming and starter allowance action, capped off by a maiden claiming sprint in Race 8 that looks like it could produce a price. Six of the eight races go at six furlongs or shorter, so pace is going to be the name of the game all afternoon — expect the speed-favoring scenarios to sort themselves out fast once the gates open.

TrackWiz has rated the full field for every race. Three races are free for everyone, with five premium races unlocked for subscribers. There's legitimate value scattered across the card today, including a couple of morning-line overlays that deserve a closer look.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear top-rated standout opens the card, but there's legit secondary firepower lurking at big prices — this six-furlong claimer is more layered than the morning line suggests.

win3TigersunML 8/5

Tigersun carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 — a significant gap over the rest of the field — and the 8/5 morning line reflects that dominance on paper. The average speed figures are competitive across the field, but it's the overall composite that separates Tigersun from the pack. Adrian Castellanos gets the call, and the connections clearly like their spot here. Hard to make a winning case against this horse at six furlongs on the dirt.

place7Regarding HarryML 7/2

Regarding Harry posts the second-best rating in the field at 75.24 and comes in at a reasonable 7/2 morning line that offers some value relative to that standing. The 9% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a race with a heavy favorite, the place slot is where this horse profiles perfectly. Silvio Ruiz Amador is an experienced hand around Emerald Downs and should keep this one honest.

show1At the CrossML 10/1

At the Cross is an interesting show inclusion at 10/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth chasing in the exotics. The TrackWiz rating of 73.17 is actually third-best in the field, making this horse undervalued on the morning line compared to Regarding Harry, who carries a similar profile. A 14% career win rate gives At the Cross a legitimate claim to hitting the board in a field where the top three by rating are fairly bunched.

Race 2

9:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Bobs Honey looks like the class of this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer, but the fringe runners all cluster near the same speed figures — an upset is possible if the favorite hits trouble.

win7Bobs HoneyML 6/5

Bobs Honey tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.71 and is the clear public choice at 6/5 on the morning line. The 14% career win rate is modest, but the composite rating gap over the field is substantial — the next closest is Cape Blossom at 66.96, nearly 23 points back. Kevin Krigger is one of the sharper jockeys on the Emerald Downs circuit, and he doesn't get put on short-priced horses without confidence from connections. This one should be on all your tickets.

place2Cape BlossomML 9/2

Cape Blossom sits second in our ratings at 66.96 and comes in at 9/2 — solid value for the place slot. The zero in the career win percentage column tells us this horse hasn't won yet, but the speed figure of 55 matches the top of the field, suggesting the raw ability is there. Alex M. Cruz has been active at this meet, and trainer David B. Martinez puts this horse in a spot where second money is a realistic outcome.

show3InorbitML 15/1

Inorbit at 15/1 is the value play in the show position. The 64.85 rating is third-best in the field, which is quietly strong for a horse going off at that price. Speed figures of 55 match the top contenders, and Blake Nunnally aboard keeps the horse in capable hands. In a race where the heavy chalk could dominate, show tickets on Inorbit could pay nicely if any chaos breaks out.

Race 3

9:46 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two TrackWiz top-rated horses with strong career win percentages set up a compelling pace duel in this six-furlong claiming sprint — the win picture is tight, and the place/show exotics look appetizing.

win6Mocktails AnyoneML 4/1

Mocktails Anyone tops this field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating but comes in at 4/1 — longer odds than you might expect for the top-rated horse, which is where the value lives. The average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the race, and Kevin Krigger is a confident booking for trainer Frank Lucarelli. That combination of elite rating, top speed, and a capable rider makes Mocktails Anyone our best bet here despite a modest 5% career win rate.

place5TiosimageML 5/2

Tiosimage is a fascinating profile — an 80.78 rating paired with a 66% career win rate is the kind of combination that commands respect in any field. The 5/2 morning line has this horse as one of the co-favorites, and Silvio Ruiz Amador should have this runner competitive throughout. The speed figure of 56 also ties for best in field, meaning this could easily flip to the top of the result.

show3Pearl EssenceML 5/1

Pearl Essence brings something unusual to the table: a 100% career win rate, even if the sample is small. The 5/1 morning line offers fair value, and with a 53.33 TrackWiz rating that lags the top two, the show position feels like the right landing spot. Alex M. Cruz is aboard for trainer Alexis Silva-Martinez, and a horse that has never lost can be a dangerous inclusion in exacta and trifecta tickets.

The first three races give everyone a solid foundation to build on. Tigersun opens the card at 8/5 on the morning line, but our ratings have this one rated a notch above what that price implies — keep an eye on how the early speed sets up. In Race 2, Bobs Honey comes in as the chalk at 6/5 and backs it up with our highest rating of the free tier at 89.71, which is hard to argue with. The interesting play in the free group is Race 3, where Mocktails Anyone sits at 4/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of price that gets our attention when the rating supports it.

One thread connecting these early races: with six furlongs the standard distance today, horses that can settle just off the pace and pounce in the stretch have a structural edge. Watch the opening fractions carefully — if the speed gets loose, closers get a chance. If it collapses early, the stalkers win. Either way, the free races set the tempo reads you'll want heading into the premium half of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse field at six furlongs creates a potential early pace scramble, with two closely-rated TrackWiz horses at double-digit morning lines — value hunters should be paying close attention here.

win2Five Twenty SunsetML 6/1

Five Twenty Sunset carries an 81.74 TrackWiz rating — best in the field — and goes to post at a generous 6/1 on the morning line, which is where the value case gets compelling. An 18% career win rate is above average for a claiming field, and Silvio Ruiz Amador gives this horse a reliable partner from post two. In a nine-horse sprint, drawing inside with the top rating is an excellent combination.

place1Nation of FaithML 8/1

Nation of Faith is just a hair behind at 79.79 and deserves a look at 8/1 — that's a big number for the second-rated horse in the field. Kevin Krigger has the mount for trainer Alexis Silva-Martinez, who is active at this meet. The 14% career win rate is consistent, and in a race where the top two by TrackWiz rating are this closely matched, both landing in the exacta is a very real scenario.

show6Bourbon DancerML 7/2

Bourbon Dancer at 7/2 is the third-rated horse at 74.74 and shows a consistent 54 average speed figure. The morning line favorite designation (behind Five Twenty Sunset's 6/1 and Nation of Faith's 8/1) actually makes Bourbon Dancer the shortest of our three picks — suggesting the public sees something here too. Kevin E. Orozco gets the call, and the horse fits the show profile nicely in what could be a competitive three-way finish.

Race 5

10:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves from the rest of this eight-runner field on ratings, but they come from very different morning line angles — the public will load up on the favorite while our top pick flies under the radar.

win7One PhilML 6/1

One Phil owns an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — best in field — yet the morning line has this horse at 6/1, which is remarkable value. The 16% career win rate is solid for a claimer, and Alex V. Anaya is a capable pilot who handles this type of race well. When the top-rated horse in a field is more than double the odds of the second-rated runner, you have to take notice — this is the standout value play of the early card.

place8Sir ArgentoML 9/5

Sir Argento is the morning line favorite at 9/5 with a 79.6 rating, sitting just below One Phil in our model. The 56 average speed figure is the best in the field, suggesting raw pace ability that can carry this horse into the money even from a compromised trip. Frank T. Alvarado gets the mount for Candice Cryderman, and the trainer-jockey combination here is worth noting in a race where the top two are closely matched.

show4Coastal JourneyML 7/2

Coastal Journey profiles as a dependable show horse at 7/2, posting a 49.43 rating and a 14% career win rate in a field where many runners carry lower numbers. Allyssa Morales takes the mount for Doug McPhee, and the average speed figure of 55 matches the majority of the field. As a hedge underneath the top two, Coastal Journey makes sense for trifecta coverage.

Race 6

11:21 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse Starter Allowance at 1 1/16 miles — the added distance shuffles the deck, and a horse with a massive career win rate stands out among a field of modest performers.

win5Princess HekawiML 4/1

Princess Hekawi tops the TrackWiz ratings at 83.62 in this Starter Allowance field and brings a stunning 41% career win rate — by far the highest of any horse in this race. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and Kevin Krigger aboard for trainer Tim McCanna is a sharp pairing. At a mile and a sixteenth, horses that win consistently tend to be the ones that keep winning — Princess Hekawi fits that profile exactly.

place2Kinky MoonML 8/1

Kinky Moon is an interesting place play at 8/1, boasting a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that's second-best in the field despite going off at a significant price. Frank T. Alvarado gets the mount for Steve C. Fisher, and a 13% career win rate in Starter Allowance company is respectable. The longer distance should suit a horse that appears to be a late-closer type based on the overall profile.

show3Bangie GoML 9/2

Bangie Go at 9/2 checks in with a 76.06 rating and a 10% career win rate — not the flashiest numbers, but solid enough for a show play in a wide-open field. Blake Nunnally has been busy at this meet, and trainer Charles Essex also saddles Gi Gis Map in this same race, suggesting he has a good feel for the conditions. In an allowance sprint with spread-out odds, Bangie Go is a reasonable trifecta anchor from the three-hole.

Race 7

11:53 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

One of the most intriguing races on the card — two high-rated horses with strong career win percentages square off at contrasting morning line prices in a ten-horse Starter Allowance at 1 1/16 miles.

win1Brother o' BrienML 5/2

Brother o' Brien leads all comers with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and carries a jaw-dropping 39% career win rate — numbers that scream legitimate contender in any field. Kevin Krigger is in the irons for Tim McCanna, the same trainer-jockey combination that also saddles Princess Hekawi in Race 6, suggesting this barn is running hot right now. The 5/2 morning line is justified, and in a two-turn route where consistency matters, a horse that wins 39% of the time is an anchor.

place7Creative OmML 2/1

Creative Om at 2/1 is the morning line favorite and brings an 81.63 rating with a 34% career win rate — also exceptional numbers. Adrian Castellanos gets the mount for Howard F. Gibson, and there's a compelling argument this horse wins outright. Our model slots it just behind Brother o' Brien, making the place position a great hedge — these two should run 1-2 in some order.

show8Mr Love MuffinML 5/1

Mr Love Muffin is a curious inclusion worth noting at 5/1 — the 72.55 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and a 17% career win rate keeps this horse in the conversation. Blake Nunnally pilots for Jack McCartney, and in a ten-horse route where the top two draw significant attention, a 5/1 third option in your trifecta could pay beautifully. Worth including in any exotics underneath the chalk.

Race 8

12:22 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A full field of maiden claimers with zero wins among them makes the ratings the clearest signal available — one horse separates herself significantly from the pack in what should be a trainer-angle-driven result.

win4Carita LindaML 9/5

Carita Linda dominates this maiden claiming field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — a massive edge over the second-ranked horse, Rise Up and Go at 69.5. The 9/5 morning line is deserved, and Talliyah Timentwa gets the call for Tim McCanna, a trainer who has been active and confident with his horses throughout the card today. An average speed figure of 55 is best in the field among horses with meaningful data, and in a full maiden field, this level of superiority rarely goes unrewarded.

place10Rise Up and GoML 9/2

Rise Up and Go is the clear second choice in our model at 69.5, going off at 9/2 — reasonable value for a horse that's a significant step above the rest of the field after the top pick. Adrian Castellanos gets the mount for Rigoberto Velasquez, and a 54 average speed figure is competitive for this level. In a maiden race where unpredictability is always a factor, grabbing Rise Up and Go in the place spot is sound exotic coverage.

show5Roxie's SecretML 8/1

Roxie's Secret at 8/1 offers genuine value in the show slot, posting a 54.13 TrackWiz rating that puts her in a cluster of similarly-rated horses — but the morning line price is friendlier than most of that group. Pablo E. Castillo takes the mount for David B. Martinez, a barn that knows how to spot horses in winnable spots. In a maiden field where anything can happen, a well-priced show ticket on Roxie's Secret rounds out a smart exotic play.

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It's a clean, fast-track afternoon at Emerald Downs with plenty of angles to attack. Bobs Honey is the strongest rated horse in the free races, Mocktails Anyone is the value play to watch early, and Brother o' Brien headlines the premium half as our top-rated contender with a legitimate shot to outrun his morning line. Full pace projections, exotic tickets, and the complete 8-race breakdown are waiting for subscribers — check out TrackWiz Premium and make it a profitable Labor Day.

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