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Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — September 6, 2026

September 6, 202610 racesAll Emerald Downs picks

Happy Sunday from Auburn, Washington — it's a beautiful day at Emerald Downs with clear skies and temps sitting right at 72°F. Conditions like this tend to produce fast, true dirt tracks, so expect speed figures to run high and front-runners to get every opportunity. Ten races are on the card today, and this is one of the better Sunday slates the Pacific Northwest has seen all summer.

The headline? Four stakes races anchor the back half of the card — Races 7 through 10 — giving us a genuine stakes bonanza to close out the afternoon. We've got sprints, two classic 1 1/16-mile routes, and a mile-and-seventy-yard test that should produce some serious betting action. Whether you're here for the early claimers or you're loading up for the stakes, there's plenty to dig into today.

TrackWiz has rated all ten fields and our top-rated horse of the day, Aloha Breeze, comes into Race 8 with a 90.00 rating and a bullet-short morning line of 3/5. That kind of number gets our attention. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Baby Waylon looks like the class of this six-furlong claiming opener, but West Coast Bull sits right on his heels and this figures to be a genuine two-horse battle through the stretch.

win1Baby WaylonML 2/1

Baby Waylon tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — a significant cushion over the rest of the field — and his 38% career win rate is the best win percentage in this race by a comfortable margin. Alex M. Cruz has the call, and the Francisco Rodriguez barn has two horses in today's opener, a sign the connections are confident showing up ready. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the numbers back the chalk here.

place2West Coast BullML 5/2

West Coast Bull matches Baby Waylon's average speed figure at 56 and posts a respectable 33% career win rate — third-highest in the field. Isaias Enriquez climbs on for Frank Lucarelli, and at 5/2 there's mild overlay potential if the two favorites run each other into the ground. He's your main safety net in the exacta.

show3D K's CrownML 6/1

D K's Crown at 6/1 is the value inclusion for the show spot and exotics. His TrackWiz rating of 73.21 is meaningfully ahead of the fourth-best horse in here, and Kevin Orozco is a reliable hand for a trainer in Picho Garcia who knows this circuit well. He's the right price to round out a trifecta ticket.

Race 2

9:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite A Fleet Ride carries a big reputation but an empty win column, making this wide-open six-furlong claimer ripe for a price horse to steal a big share of the pool.

win6Run On OmML 8/1

Run On Om is our value play at 8/1 despite owning the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79 — that's a real disconnect that creates overlay territory. His average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this group, and Blake Nunnally has been a dependable pilot at Emerald Downs. For a horse with a higher rating than the morning-line favorite, 8/1 is a price worth attacking.

place8A Fleet RideML 6/5

A Fleet Ride is the 6/5 morning-line choice, and that rating of 78.76 is nearly as strong as our win pick. The concern is a career win rate listed at zero — if this horse hasn't broken through yet, there's a real question about whether it can close the deal under pressure. In the place spot, you get the talent without needing the breakthrough, making it a reasonable hedge.

show7MamarandoML 6/1

Mamarando checks in with a 74.05 TrackWiz rating — the third-best in the race — and Debbie Peery's barn knows how to place horses at this level. Silvio Ruiz Amador takes the mount, and at 6/1 odds Mamarando offers legitimate exacta and trifecta value for bettors building exotic tickets around the top two.

Race 3

9:49 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Belle of Edmonds looks like a standout in this maiden claiming sprint, but this is a field of winless horses at 6 furlongs and maiden races can always surprise — the key is how much the morning-line favorite's rating edge holds up under pressure.

win6Belle of EdmondsML 7/5

Belle of Edmonds carries a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 — easily the best number in this maiden claiming field and more than 30 points clear of the third-best horse. Isaias Enriquez gets the mount for Frank Lucarelli, a pairing that commands respect, and an average speed figure of 55 is solid for this level. She's the 7/5 morning-line choice for good reason, and our analysis lines up squarely with the market.

place3Kiss Don't TellML 7/2

Kiss Don't Tell has a 56.48 rating and the same 55 average speed figure as the favorite, making her the logical second horse in the race. Trainer Debbie Peery places horses well at Emerald Downs, and Silvio Ruiz Amador is a capable rider who can put her in a good position early. At 7/2, she's a fair price to land in the exacta behind the chalk.

show5Number ThirtyfourML 9/2

Number Thirtyfour at 9/2 is an interesting inclusion — the TrackWiz rating of 54.17 is right in line with Kiss Don't Tell, making it a coin flip for the third spot. Trainer Joe Toye is a familiar name at this track, and with no speed figure on record, there's some mystery that could work either for or against. In a maiden race where form is always uncertain, the 9/2 price makes Number Thirtyfour a sensible show and trifecta slot.

We're unlocking the first three races for everyone today. In the opener, Baby Waylon draws our top rating of 88.54 in a 6-furlong claiming sprint — on a fast, fair dirt track like today's, that kind of consistent speed profile is exactly what you want to back at 2/1. Race 2 is where things get interesting: Run On Om opens at a juicy 8/1 morning line despite a TrackWiz rating of 79.79, making this our best value play of the free card. Don't sleep on a double-digit payout just because the claimers look chalky up top.

Race 3 is a maiden claiming sprint and Belle of Edmonds is the standout at 7/5 on the morning line with our highest free-race rating at 89.42. She's the kind of short-priced maiden we're happy to back when the numbers justify the price — and today they do. The common thread across these three early races: a fair, fast track that should reward horses with clean early speed and solid recent form. No excuses today at Emerald Downs.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:21 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Bakburner has the top rating in this Starter Allowance but faces a tight market — Guide My Steps and Hakuhia are close enough on paper to make the top half of the ticket genuinely competitive.

win3BakburnerML 2/1

Bakburner posts the joint-best TrackWiz rating in today's card at 88.54 and pairs that with a 25% career win rate in what is a competitive Starter Allowance field. Silvio Ruiz Amador picks up the mount for Joe Toye, a trainer who knows how to win on the Emerald Downs circuit. The 2/1 morning line reflects real confidence from the morning-line makers, and our numbers say it's justified.

place2HakuhiaML 5/2

Hakuhia at 5/2 is the natural place companion — an 80.38 rating and a steady 55 average speed figure suggest he belongs. Steve Fisher conditions the horse, and Frank Alvarado's experience gives the pair a professional edge. He likely profiles as a presser who can capitalize if the pace scenario sets up properly off the early speed.

show5Guide My StepsML 4/1

Guide My Steps checks in with a 78.97 rating, just a tick behind Hakuhia, and a 19% career win rate from Shelly Crowe's barn. Alex Anaya has the mount, and at 4/1 the morning line gives you a fair return on a horse whose numbers say she legitimately belongs in the top three. She rounds out the trifecta nicely at a workable price.

Race 5

10:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Kristin Lee looks like the dominant force in this six-furlong claiming dash — a 42% career win rate is elite at this level, but Annika's Song and a sneaky show play offer some structure for exotic builders.

win5Kristin LeeML 8/5

Kristin Lee's 42% career win rate is the standout figure in this field — nearly half again better than the next-best win percentage. Her TrackWiz rating of 89.12 is tops in the race, and a 56 average speed figure matches the leaders. At 8/5 on the morning line, she's not a value play, but the numbers say she's the right horse to be first on the ticket.

place7Annika's SongML 9/2

Annika's Song is our place selection at 9/2 with a solid 77.07 TrackWiz rating that separates her clearly from the third tier of this field. Adrian Castellanos gets the mount for Mark Cloutier, and a 16% career win rate in a field largely full of single-digit winners tells you this horse competes consistently. The 9/2 morning line makes her a genuine value play in the exacta underneath Kristin Lee.

show4Cut N CurlML 15/1

Cut N Curl at 15/1 is the longshot angle for the show spot — a 55.4 rating doesn't scream star, but it's well ahead of Coiffeur and several others in the bottom half. Trainer Terri Eaton runs two horses today, and Blake Nunnally pilots the better-rated of the pair. At 15/1, a small trifecta investment with Cut N Curl in the third spot offers real upside if the top two run true.

Race 6

11:27 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Golden River gets the nod over morning-line favorite A View From Above in an interesting Starter Allowance where our top-rated horse and the chalk are the same two horses — just not in the same order.

win6Golden RiverML 4/1

Golden River owns an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — best in the field — and a 15% win rate is modest but respectable in Starter Allowance company. Adrian Castellanos climbs aboard for trainer Sergio Perez, who also runs Fortyshadesoftiger in this race, showing barn confidence in the full entry. At 4/1, Golden River offers real value given that his rating edges out the 8/5 morning-line choice.

place3A View From AboveML 8/5

A View From Above at 8/5 is the public's pick and posts a strong 78.34 rating for trainer Alexis Silva-Martinez. Silvio Ruiz Amador takes the mount, and a 17% career win rate with a 56 average speed figure puts her in the mix every time. We're simply suggesting the market may have her odds slightly too low relative to Golden River's edge in the ratings.

show4Taino HouseML 5/2

Taino House brings a 74.22 rating and the best career win percentage in the race at 25%, which is a meaningful edge in a field where several horses are well below that threshold. Kevin Krigger and trainer Charles Essex are a professional combination, and at 5/2 the morning line isn't a big price — but Taino House's consistency makes him a safe show and trifecta anchor.

Race 7

11:57 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A fascinating stakes showdown where the morning-line favorite Mattie Goincoastal has a perfect record but our top-rated horse Playa Luna edges her out in TrackWiz analysis — and there's genuine intrigue in the Make Mo Mine storyline at 8/1.

win4Playa LunaML 8/5

Playa Luna posts the top TrackWiz rating at 89.12 — edging out Mattie Goincoastal by 6 points — and a 33% career win rate in stakes company is nothing to dismiss. Adrian Castellanos, one of the more active and effective riders on this card, gets the mount for Tom Wenzel's powerhouse barn. At 8/5 on the morning line, there's modest value in taking our top-rated horse over the 4/5 morning-line favorite.

place3Mattie GoincoastalML 4/5

Mattie Goincoastal is the 4/5 morning-line chalk and owns a perfect career record, which is obviously compelling. Kevin Orozco rides for Howard Gibson's capable operation, and an 83.01 rating means she's clearly in the conversation. Our analysis slots her second, but in a stakes race between two well-rated horses with flawless records, a place bet on the favorite at short odds is still a responsible play.

show2Make Mo MineML 8/1

Make Mo Mine is the show pick and the intriguing angle at 8/1 — a perfect career win rate like Mattie Goincoastal's jumps out immediately. Frank Alvarado rides for Tom Wenzel, who also trains Playa Luna, giving the barn two live bullets in this spot. A 56 average speed figure and that unblemished record make Make Mo Mine worth including in trifecta coverage as a potential spoiler.

Race 8

12:27 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Aloha Breeze looks like a near-lock on paper with a 90 TrackWiz rating and a 69% career win rate, but at 3/5 on the morning line, exotic players will need to hunt for value underneath her.

win3Aloha BreezeML 3/5

Aloha Breeze is as close to a formality as you'll find in horse racing — a 90 TrackWiz rating leads not just this race but the entire card, and a 69% career win rate in a stakes field is remarkable. Adrian Castellanos rides for Tom Wenzel's barn, which has three horses in action on tonight's card, and her 56 average speed figure matches the field's best. At 3/5, win bettors won't find value, but she's the anchor for any multi-race ticket or exotic wager.

place7Saleen G TML 10/1

Saleen G T is the value underneath at 10/1 with a 74.25 TrackWiz rating that makes her the clear second-best horse based on our model. Isaias Enriquez rides for Frank Lucarelli — a trainer who has shown patience developing horses at this level — and a 42% career win rate rivals even Aloha Breeze's pedigree for consistency. If there's a price horse to beat the chalk, Saleen G T at double digits is the one.

show5TipitapML 8/1

Tipitap checks in at 8/1 with a 65.34 rating and a 20% career win rate for trainer Blaine Wright. Blake Nunnally takes the mount, and while Tipitap isn't threatening to beat the top two on ratings, she's clearly a step ahead of Young Life Laura and Stay Sassy in this field. A show bet at 8/1 or including her deep in a trifecta is the play for bettors who want to fight around the chalky win market.

Race 9

12:56 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Tom Wenzel sends out the top two horses in our ratings — Slew's Tiz Whiz and Candy Caballo — making this stakes mile look like a barn-controlled affair, with Adios Jojo as the main danger from outside the dominant operation.

win6Slew's Tiz WhizML 2/1

Slew's Tiz Whiz earns an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 38% career win rate that ranks tops among the contenders at this distance. Frank Alvarado has the call for the Wenzel stable, and a 56 average speed figure ties the field's best. At 2/1 on the morning line, this is a fair price for the top-rated horse in a stakes field, and our analysis is in full agreement with the morning line.

place7Candy CaballoML 7/2

Candy Caballo is the stablemate at 7/2 with the second-best rating in the field at 84.87 — only a few points behind the win pick. Adrian Castellanos rides, which means Wenzel is splitting his two top pilots across the two live threats. A 26% career win rate is solid at the stakes level, and if Slew's Tiz Whiz gets caught in traffic or takes a bump, Candy Caballo is perfectly positioned to grab a share.

show1Adios JojoML 5/2

Adios Jojo at 5/2 is the logical alternative from outside the Wenzel barn — an 83.72 TrackWiz rating makes him the third-best horse on our model, just a hair behind the top two. Kevin Orozco rides for Howard Gibson, and a 35% career win rate is among the better marks in today's stakes lineup. He's the horse to beat for the show spot if you're building trifectas, and worth a single show bet as a hedge against the barn's dominance.

Race 10

1:25 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Ziwhat tops the ratings in this closing stakes mile-and-seventy, but the Tom Wenzel barn has three horses in the field and there are some intriguing career-win-percentage stories — including a 100% record — that make this final card race genuinely worth unpacking.

win7ZiwhatML 7/2

Ziwhat leads the field with an 86.34 TrackWiz rating and a 56 average speed figure that matches the top horses. Adrian Castellanos gets the mount for Tom Wenzel — his third horse in this single race — and while the career win rate is listed at zero, the model's rating says this horse has shown the raw form to compete. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's a slight overlay given the ratings advantage over the rest of the field.

place8Diamond DasherML 5/2

Diamond Dasher is the place selection at 5/2 with a 75.8 TrackWiz rating — a clear second-best in the field. Allyssa Morales takes the mount, also for Tom Wenzel, and a 33% career win rate is the best legitimate win percentage among the proven horses in this race. She's a logical spot to land in the exacta and offers the trainer-barn angle of confidence given Wenzel's three-horse presence.

show4Our RembrandtML 12/1

Our Rembrandt is the 12/1 morning-line show selection with a 57.66 rating — not flashy, but the best number among the group sitting below Diamond Dasher. A 50% career win rate from Jack McCartney's barn stands out, suggesting this horse wins when it is right, even if the rating doesn't scream elite. At 12/1, a small show investment or trifecta inclusion makes sense for bettors looking to stretch the ticket on the finale.

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Today's card at Emerald Downs is the real deal — four stakes races, a gorgeous afternoon, and a track set up for fast, true racing. Our best bets start with Belle of Edmonds in Race 3, we love the value on Run On Om in Race 2, and the entire stakes sequence deserves a serious look. Aloha Breeze is our highest-rated horse on the card, full stop. Get the complete picture — pace, exotics, and ticket strategy — with a TrackWiz Premium subscription. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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