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Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — August 29, 2026

August 29, 202610 racesAll Emerald Downs picks

Results are in — see the official Emerald Downs chart and payouts (our top pick won 1 of 10)→

It's a beautiful Saturday at Emerald Downs — partly cloudy skies and a crisp 68°F make for ideal racing conditions in Auburn. No weather-related excuses today; the track should be playing honest, and that means raw ability and smart handicapping win out.

We've got a full 10-race card on the dirt, ranging from maiden claimers getting their feet wet to seasoned claimers battling it out in the back half of the card. The talent level builds nicely as the afternoon rolls on, with our highest-rated pick of the day — Mocktails Anyone in Race 6 — anchoring a stretch of premium races that serious bettors won't want to sleep on.

Three races are free for all TrackWiz readers today, with another seven available to subscribers. Whether you're here for a casual flutter or building multi-race tickets, there's plenty to dig into.

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Race 1

8:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming mile on the dirt where TrackWiz ratings separate the field clearly — but with all six horses at zero career wins, anything can happen first time at the dance.

win4BetterletitrideML 4/1

Betterletitride (#4) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field with an 85.62, a meaningful edge over the rest of the maiden field. Trainer Jack McCartney has this one lined up at 4/1 on the morning line — fair value for a horse that our model projects as the class of the group. Jockey Frank T. Alvarado takes the call, a solid booking, and the one-mile distance on dirt should suit a horse whose profile suggests a more measured pace approach. In a field of maidens this competitive, that rating gap is hard to ignore.

place6Sailing ForceML 7/2

Sailing Force (#6) checks in second in the ratings at 74.96, giving trainer Patty Leaney a live one at a very reasonable 7/2 morning line. Alex M. Cruz is the pilot here, and in a race where the pace could get messy with first-timers jostling early, a horse with this kind of underlying score has a natural path to a placing. Solid exotics inclusion if you're building a ticket.

show3Big WheelzML 6/1

Big Wheelz (#3) rates third in the field at 72.46 and goes for trainer Debbie Van Horne with Talliyah Timentwa up. The 6/1 morning line offers genuine value for a show ticket or a trifecta slot — in a maiden race where chaos is always lurking, having this rating in the frame makes Big Wheelz a smart hedge in your exotics.

Race 2

9:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Swift Stephan opens as the 9/5 morning-line chalk, but the TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story — this looks like a vulnerable favorite situation with real upside hiding at longer odds.

win2Regarding HarryML 8/1

Regarding Harry (#2) is our top-rated horse in Race 2 with a 79.79 TrackWiz score, yet the morning line has him at a juicy 8/1 — that's a significant overlay if our numbers hold up. His average speed figure of 55 is competitive in this six-furlong claiming sprint, and a 10% career win rate in claiming company shows he knows how to find the wire. Trainer Debbie Peery teams with Adrian Castellanos, a live combination, and in a race where the favorite appears overbet by the market, Regarding Harry is the value bomb worth targeting.

place3Mister OML 3/1

Mister O (#3) brings the best career win percentage in the field at a stout 28%, which tells you this horse knows how to compete at this level. His average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the field, and the 3/1 morning line reflects some public respect. Trainer Kendra S. Lyons has a live horse here, and for place purposes, Mister O looks like a near-lock to be competitive in the six-furlong sprint.

show4Golden RegalML 7/2

Golden Regal (#4) posts a 25% career win rate and clocks an average speed of 55, putting her solidly in the mix for a share in this sprint. Talliyah Timentwa gets the ride for trainer Patty Leaney, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's mild value in using Golden Regal underneath in trifectas. She's a grinder in this class and won't embarrass anyone who includes her in an exotic.

Race 3

9:44 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Nine maiden claimers go six furlongs on the dirt and the ratings are heavily concentrated at the top — Shady Creek stands out sharply, but the race for the minor spots is a genuine scramble.

win9Shady CreekML 7/2

Shady Creek (#9) earns the highest TrackWiz rating in this nine-horse maiden field at 86.35 — a substantial gap over the second-rated horse. Trainer Tom Wenzel sends out this runner with Adrian Castellanos in the irons, a confident booking that suggests connections like their chances. The 7/2 morning line feels about right given the rating dominance, and in a maiden claiming sprint that could get chaotic up front, Shady Creek has the profile to close over a contested pace.

place1Boss GirlML 6/1

Boss Girl (#1) rates second in the field at 76.5 and earns the rail post with Blake Nunnally aboard for trainer Howard F. Gibson. In a nine-horse sprint, post one can be a speed advantage if she breaks cleanly, and her rating is meaningfully clear of everything below her. Gibson also saddles Swingin Inthe Rain in this race, showing barn confidence, and Boss Girl is the logical place contender at a 6/1 morning line with upside.

show2Roxie's SecretML 5/1

Roxie's Secret (#2) rates third overall in the field at 70.2 and goes for trainer David B. Martinez with Pablo E. Castillo up at 5/1. In a maiden race where the top two selections are well-rated, using the third-best rated horse in the show slot of your trifecta is sound construction — Roxie's Secret has the numbers to justify inclusion without breaking the bank on a ticket.

Our three free-preview races kick things off early and give you a solid foundation for the day. In Race 1, Betterletitride (4/1 morning line, TrackWiz rating 85.62) headlines the maiden claimer going a mile — a route distance that often separates horses with real stamina from those that are simply dropping in class to find a win. In Race 2, keep a sharp eye on Regarding Harry at 8/1 — that's genuine value for a horse our model rates competitively at 79.79, and 8/1 on the morning line suggests the public may be underestimating him in a six-furlong sprint. Race 3 brings Shady Creek (7/2) into focus, our highest-rated free pick at 86.35, facing fellow maidens over six furlongs of dirt.

One connecting thread across these early races: all three are on a dirt surface that should be in good shape under today's mild conditions. No bias concerns to account for — straightforward handicapping, and our numbers like what they see.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The 6/5 morning-line chalk Cantcatchthiscat draws plenty of public support, but Somekindaoutlaw's TrackWiz score blows everyone out of the water — this is a classic market vs. model showdown.

win3SomekindaoutlawML 5/1

Somekindaoutlaw (#3) tops this six-horse claiming field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating while carrying a blistering 33% career win rate — easily the most accomplished winner in the group. The 5/1 morning line represents excellent value given those numbers, especially with Silvio Ruiz Amador taking the mount for trainer Doug McPhee. In a six-furlong dirt sprint where early position often matters, a horse that has been to the winner's circle a third of the time in his career deserves to be the strongest single on your ticket.

place5Sir ArgentoML 3/1

Sir Argento (#5) rates second in the field at 70.85 and goes for trainer Candice S. Cryderman with Frank T. Alvarado in the saddle. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and while a 7% career win rate isn't flashy, his rating clears the field's lower tier by a comfortable margin. If Somekindaoutlaw runs into traffic or the pace gets complicated, Sir Argento figures to be on the premises at the top of the stretch.

show2CantcatchthiscatML 6/5

Cantcatchthiscat (#2) is clearly overbet at 6/5 given a TrackWiz rating of just 61.87 — well below our top two picks — but a 27% career win rate earns respect and keeps her relevant. Trainer Frank Lucarelli and jockey Kevin Krigger is a sharp combination, and this horse will likely be near the front early in a six-furlong sprint. Using her underneath the higher-rated horses in the show slot hedges against the public money dictating the outcome.

Race 5

10:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A strong claiming mile on the dirt headlined by a cluster of elite-rated horses — Sweet Smile, Savita, Sweet Shoppe, and Army Knife are all within striking distance at the top of the ratings, setting up a wide-open affair for exotic players.

win3Sweet SmileML 5/2

Sweet Smile (#3) earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.44 and brings a spectacular 40% career win rate — the highest in the field by a mile. That kind of strike rate in claiming company is the mark of a horse that genuinely knows how to win. Trainer Tim McCanna and Frank T. Alvarado combine on a horse going a one-mile route that should suit a front-running or pressing style. At 5/2 on the morning line, Sweet Smile is the clear best bet of the race.

place1SavitaML 7/2

Savita (#1) rates just a tick below our win pick at 86.35 and gets the inside post with Alex M. Cruz up for trainer Alan Bozell. A 9% career win rate in claiming company is modest, but in a competitive one-mile race on the dirt, it's the overall form cycle and rating that matter — and Savita's number is elite. The 7/2 morning line is solid value for a place ticket, and she's dangerous if Sweet Smile hits any trouble.

show6Sweet ShoppeML 5/1

Sweet Shoppe (#6) rates third in this field at 81.22 with a 20% career win rate, giving trainer Kay Penney Cooper a legitimate contender at 5/1 on the morning line. Kevin E. Orozco takes the mount, and in a one-mile race where pace can string things out, a horse with Sweet Shoppe's rating and win percentage is a dangerous closer in the late stages. At 5/1, she's the best show value on the card in this race.

Race 6

11:21 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open Maiden Special Weight at 6.5 furlongs where Mocktails Anyone is the clear public choice at 8/5, but two significant longshots lurk in what is otherwise a mystery field of mostly unraced runners.

win8Mocktails AnyoneML 8/5

Mocktails Anyone (#8) dominates this field with a 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse on today's card — and posts the best average speed figure in the race at 56. Trainer Frank Lucarelli sends this one out with Kevin Krigger in the irons, a polished jockey-trainer tandem that knows how to get the job done. The 8/5 morning line reflects real public confidence, and in an MSW — Maiden Special Weight, meaning these horses haven't run for a claiming price — a rating this dominant is hard to fade.

place7Shes a Rare BeautyML 8/1

Shes a Rare Beauty (#7) is the most intriguing horse in the bottom half of this field, carrying a 33% career win rate — the only horse in the field with a meaningful win percentage. Trainer Rosie Simkins and Silvio Ruiz Amador form a capable partnership, and at 8/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay value here. In a race full of unknowns, a horse that has actually won before stands out as a clear place contender.

show5ShaughnessyML 7/2

Shaughnessy (#5) rates third in the field at 55.83 with an average speed of 55 and gets Frank T. Alvarado in the saddle for trainer Robert Gilker. The 7/2 morning line has the public respecting this one, and with several horses in the field posting zero average speed figures — meaning limited published data — Shaughnessy's form history gives handicappers something real to anchor on. Good trifecta piece at a digestible price.

Race 7

11:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Nine claimers go 6.5 furlongs on the dirt in what shapes up as a competitive mid-card race — the top three rated horses are bunched within three points of each other, and the morning line throws a curveball by favoring a horse well off the pace scenario implied by the numbers.

win7Oh My VronML 8/1

Oh My Vron (#7) rates 79.79 on the TrackWiz model — tied for the top spot in this nine-horse field — while carrying a 16% career win rate and going postward at 8/1 on the morning line. That's a genuine overlay: our ratings say top of the class, the public says take-a-shot price. Trainer Jorge Rosales sends this one out with Adrian Castellanos, a sharp jockey booking for a horse that our model projects as the most likely winner. At 6.5 furlongs on the dirt, the pace scenario should set up for horses with quality speed figures, and Oh My Vron fits that mold.

place5Chokechery ShariML 9/2

Chokechery Shari (#5) is right there in the ratings at 79.32 — nearly identical to our win pick — and carries a 13% career win rate at 9/2 on the morning line. Trainer James L. Gilmour sends this one with Allyssa Morales up, and in a field this tightly grouped at the top, Chokechery Shari figures to be involved deep into the stretch. She's the natural place key if you're looking to spread your exotics.

show8Bumping RiverML 3/1

Bumping River (#8) rates third in the field at 77.13 with the best average speed figure in the race at 55, making trainer Jose Navarro's runner a horse that can keep up through the six-and-a-half-furlong distance. Silvio Ruiz Amador has the mount, and at 3/1 on the morning line, Bumping River is rightfully respected by the public — just not quite at the level our top two ratings suggest. A safe show selection with upside.

Race 8

12:22 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Five Twenty Sunset and Adios Nicanor emerge as a clear top-two in the ratings in this eight-horse claiming sprint, but the 5/2 morning-line favorite Fortyshadesoftiger is a mid-pack horse by the numbers — that's a classic overlay situation for value players.

win8Five Twenty SunsetML 9/2

Five Twenty Sunset (#8) leads this field with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate, delivering consistent results in claiming company at this distance. Trainer Joe Toye has Silvio Ruiz Amador in the saddle — a productive combination — and the 9/2 morning line reflects a public market that hasn't fully caught up to the model. In a 6.5-furlong dirt sprint where average speed figures separate the contenders, Five Twenty Sunset's profile puts her squarely on top.

place2Adios NicanorML 7/2

Adios Nicanor (#2) rates a strong 82.68 — just a hair behind our top pick — and posts an average speed of 56 alongside a 15% career win rate. Alex M. Cruz picks up the mount for trainer Scott Tubbs, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's no significant overlay here, but the horse is legit. If Five Twenty Sunset hits any traffic in the stretch, Adios Nicanor has the rating and the figures to be right there at the line.

show1Draw the FoulML 5/1

Draw the Foul (#1) rates 61.67 and carries the best career win percentage in the field at 21%, suggesting a horse that consistently finds a way to compete. Trainer James L. Gilmour teams with Allyssa Morales, and the rail post in a six-and-a-half-furlong sprint is workable if she breaks sharp. At 5/1 on the morning line, Draw the Foul is a reasonable show play for bettors who want depth in their trifecta construction.

Race 9

12:53 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Bobby's Genie and Union Coach sit atop the ratings and form a logical top-two, but Eyelight's eye-popping 40% career win rate at 8/1 on the morning line makes this nine-horse six-furlong closer worth a serious look for value players.

win8Bobby's GenieML 3/1

Bobby's Genie (#8) leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and carries a 21% career win rate, making her the class of this claiming sprint by the numbers. Kevin E. Orozco gets the call for trainer Vince Gibson, and an average speed figure of 56 — tied for the top in the field — confirms she has the pure pace to compete at this distance. The 3/1 morning line is fair given the ratings dominance, and Bobby's Genie earns top billing as the race's strongest single.

place4Union CoachML 7/2

Union Coach (#4) rates an impressive 85.26 — just behind Bobby's Genie — and pairs that with a 25% career win rate, the second-best in the field. Alex M. Cruz takes the mount for trainer Rigoberto Velasquez, and an average speed of 56 confirms Union Coach belongs in the mix in this six-furlong dirt sprint. The 7/2 morning line is a fair reflection of a legitimate second option, and she anchors the place slot convincingly.

show3EyelightML 8/1

Eyelight (#3) rates 79.24 — third in the field — but the number that jumps off the page is a 40% career win rate, tied for the best on the day's card among horses with experience. Trainer Frank Lucarelli and Isaias D. Enriquez combine on a horse that the morning line has at 8/1 — that's a significant disconnect between the win rate and the odds. In a six-furlong sprint, Eyelight's proven ability to hit the wire first makes her a standout show value and a worthwhile longshot dart in the trifecta.

Race 10

1:22 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Mr. Fireball is the class of the race by the ratings and comes in at a modest 5/2, but Lord of Light is close behind at 9/2 and Gentlemen's Club offers legitimate value in a nine-horse field where the morning line favorite is actually justified by the numbers for once.

win3Mr. FireballML 5/2

Mr. Fireball (#3) tops the TrackWiz ratings at an impressive 87.81 — the highest in Race 10 — and backs it up with a 21% career win rate and the field's best average speed figure of 56. Trainer Rosie Simkins and Frank T. Alvarado is a sharp pairing, and Alvarado has been busy today with live mounts throughout the card. The 5/2 morning line is fair value for a horse this clearly rated above the field, and Mr. Fireball is the day's final best bet for those looking to close out the card strong.

place4Lord of LightML 9/2

Lord of Light (#4) rates a strong 84.9 — matching Five Twenty Sunset's top score from Race 8 — and brings an 18% career win rate to a six-furlong dirt sprint. Silvio Ruiz Amador takes the call for trainer Jorge Rosales, and an average speed of 56 puts Lord of Light in the same tier as Mr. Fireball on pure pace. The 9/2 morning line is solid value for a place ticket, and this horse is dangerous if the leader gets caught up in a speed duel.

show7Gentlemen's ClubML 5/1

Gentlemen's Club (#7) rates 67.77 with a 10% career win rate and an average speed of 55, giving trainer Francisco Rodriguez and Blake Nunnally a horse that fits the profile of a late-race grinder in a six-furlong sprint. The 5/1 morning line offers genuine value for the show slot or as a trifecta fill — in a nine-horse field where several runners rate well below this mark, Gentlemen's Club is a comfortable third-tier contender worth including on your tickets.

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Today's Emerald Downs card has a little something for everyone — value longshots early, high-rated contenders in the middle, and a competitive closing sequence that sets up beautifully for multi-race wagers. Shady Creek and Betterletitride headline the free plays, while Mocktails Anyone (our top-rated pick at 89.12) and Mr. Fireball close out the card as the marquee premium selections. Full analysis, pace figures, and exotic ticket builds are all available to TrackWiz subscribers — see you at the windows.

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