Delta Downs Picks & Predictions — November 7, 2026

Golden Mist sits second in our ratings at 57.50 and owns the best recent race speed figure in the field at 12.38 seconds per furlong, which is a real edge over a lot of these lightly raced horses. She's placed in her only career start and carries a 100% in-money rate going into today, admittedly on a small sample. Jockey Colby J. Hernandez grades B+ and trainer Keith G. Bourgeois grades A-, a solid connections combo for a maiden race.

Castle Rock is the third pick at a 55.00 rating and owns the second-best workout of the past month at 12.20 seconds per furlong — in a field full of unraced or lightly raced horses, good gate work carries extra weight. Jockey Devin H. Magnon grades B and this is a first-time-out runner, so there's inherent uncertainty about how she'll handle the starting gate and racing pressure. That said, her workout profile stands out enough to make her a worthwhile exotics inclusion at a morning line of 4/1.

Justlikelouise is a legit second choice here at 85.37 on the TrackWiz scale, and she leads the entire field in recent race speed at 12.35 seconds per furlong. She's placed in 8 of 10 dirt starts and in 5 of her last 6 races — that's the profile of a horse who has consistently found herself in the right spot at the wire. Trainer Brett A. Brinkman grades A- and simWinPct of 23.2% makes her the second most likely winner in our models, so she's a natural play underneath Liteupthenite in exactas.

Pitchatizzy grades out third in the ratings at 65.01 and brings a compelling recent form line — she's placed in each of her last five consecutive races and in 5 of her last 6 overall. Her recent speed figure ranks third in the field at 12.55 seconds per furlong. At a morning line of 10/1, she may offer genuine value in the exotics if the top two finish where expected — a trifecta anchoring Pitchatizzy in the third spot at a double-digit price is an angle worth playing.

Little Lee sits second in our ratings at 78.05 and shows strong distance and surface form — she's placed in 3 of 4 starts at five furlongs and 3 of 6 on dirt overall, with one win in each category. The concern is her jockey: Misael Alvarez carries a 7% win rate over the past year, which is well below average, and that could cost her if the race comes down to a tight finish. That said, the horse's own form at this distance is too strong to ignore for place and show tickets.

The Petitioner earned a 67.95 TrackWiz rating and has placed in her last three consecutive races and in 4 of her last 6, showing she knows how to find the board regularly. She's placed in 8 of 13 dirt starts career-wide. The knock is that her recent race speed ranks 10th in the field at 14.24 seconds per furlong — she's not a speed horse — and she's stepping up in claiming price from $5,000 to $7,500, which is a mild class hike. Use her as a show safety valve in trifectas rather than a primary investment.

Highland Creek is rated 81.51 — just 1.2 points behind Regatta Bay — and owns the third-fastest recent race speed at 12.48 seconds per furlong. Jockey Jansen Melancon is one of the sharper sticks in the book, posting a 23% win rate and 61% in-money rate over the past year, and the Melancon-Landry combo hits at 27% wins and 65% in-money. The concern is age — at eight years old, Highland Creek is officially classified as past prime by our model — but she's placed in 58% of her career starts and remains clearly in-form. She'll be tough to leave off any ticket.

Moonlight Max grades out third in the field at 70.53 and brings a sterling record — a 100% career in-money rate with 2 wins in 4 dirt starts, and the best recent race speed figure in the entire race at 12.06 seconds per furlong. She's placed in each of her last four outings, which is about as consistent as it gets. The workout concern (ranked 6th at 13.43 seconds per furlong over the past month) is worth noting, but her race-day speed numbers carry more predictive weight, and at 7/2 she's a natural piece in exactas and trifectas.

Red Roadster is the second-highest rated horse here at 70.30 — just a half-point behind Old Homestead — and owns the second-fastest recent race speed figure at 11.94 seconds per furlong. He's placed in each of his last two starts and in 3 of his last 4, showing sharp recent form. The workout numbers over the past month are soft (ranked 6th at 12.75), but his race-day speed profile more than compensates. At 4/1 on the morning line, he's fairly priced for a horse with strong in-money numbers and legitimate recent momentum.

Old Homestead is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 but slots third in our ratings at 69.84. That's not a knock — this is a legitimate horse with a 40% career win rate, a 60% in-money rate, and outstanding distance credentials: 4 wins in 7 starts at five furlongs and 6 wins in 14 dirt races. The third-best recent speed figure at 11.98 seconds per furlong keeps him in the conversation. He's the public's horse, which limits value, but he earns a spot in any trifecta as the reliable floor of this field.

Von Erich sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 76.74 and brings an elite connections angle — jockey Jansen Melancon posts a 23% win rate and 61% in-money rate over the past year, and the Melancon-Landry combination hits at 27% wins and 65% in-money, one of the sharper combos in the book. He's placed in 4 of 7 dirt starts and simulated a win in 19.5% of our 10,000 race models. The 7/2 morning line seems fair for a horse with this quality of connections stepping in here.

Gold Thief is listed at 12/1 on the morning line but is third on our ratings at 61.65 and leads the entire field in recent race speed at 12.25 seconds per furlong — that's the kind of hidden speed figure that can catch a morning-line underlay. He's placed in each of his last five consecutive starts and in 5 of his last 6, which is as hot a form line as you'll find in this field. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez grades A, adding another quiet positive. At double-digit odds, Gold Thief is a genuine value play in trifectas and potentially a live show bet.

Bobby's Native One checks in second on our ratings at 55.00 — still a 32-point gap below Dr. Red, but well clear of the rest of the field — and trainer Randy Degeyter, Jr. grades B. This is a lightly raced horse with limited data beyond the rating itself; there's no career win percentage or in-money rate to cite, which is a reminder that maiden races always carry uncertainty below the top pick. At 4/1 morning line, she's a reasonable place bet in a race where Dr. Red may dominate.

Elaina Reins sits third in our ratings at 52.71, tight behind Bobby's Native One. She's placed in 25% of her career starts and brings a Devin Magnon-Rylee Magnon jockey-trainer combination that's worth tracking. The negatives are notable — she hasn't placed in her last three starts and her recent race speed ranks 8th in the field at 13.80 seconds per furlong. She's a speculative show inclusion at 6/1 morning line, most useful in trifecta tickets where you're looking for a logical third-place finisher if the top two hold form.