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Delta Downs Picks & Predictions — November 4, 2026

November 4, 20268 racesAll Delta Downs picks

Best bets at Delta Downs today

Race 14Faye L.ML 5/15:40 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Delta Downs: our top pick won 9 of 34 races (26%) and finished in the money in 17.

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Faye L. is our best bet among today's free races — she tops the card in Race 1 with the fastest recent speed figure on the board at 12.63 sec/furlong, and her record of placing in 12 of 17 dirt starts tells you she knows what to do when the gate opens. At 5/1 on the morning line, she's worth your attention right out of the gate.

Conditions couldn't be much better at Delta Downs today. It's a clear November afternoon, 71°F, and the track should be playing fast and consistent — the kind of day where speed figures hold up and pace shapes matter. Eight races are on the card, all on dirt, ranging from maiden claimers to a starter allowance, and there's plenty to dig into across the full card.

What makes today interesting is the depth of value hiding behind the morning lines. Our simulations are showing several horses significantly outrunning their odds, and the pace picture in a few of these races sets up for some live longshot opportunities. Read on for the breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:40 PM EST

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 12-horse field at 6½ furlongs with all runners listed as unproven on pace, leaving the shape of this race genuinely uncertain — the top-rated horse carries real class angles but nothing separates the top tier by more than a few lengths on paper.

win4Faye L.ML 5/1

Faye L. sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and leads all starters with the fastest recent race speed (12.63 sec/furlong). Her dirt record is especially encouraging — she's placed in 12 of 17 starts on the surface and has hit the board in each of her last two outings, suggesting she's coming into this race in form. Trainer Isai V. Gonzalez holds a B+ grade and jockey Jose Luis Rodriguez earns an A- with strong overall numbers. The only real flag is her age relative to the field, but form-to-date says she belongs at the top of your ticket, and she won 17.68% of our 10,000 TrackWiz simulations.

place1Miss LandlockML 7/2

Miss Landlock is our second-rated horse in the field at 75.1 and brings an in-the-money rate of 50% over her career, which is quietly solid in a field like this. She's also placed in 5 of 10 dirt starts, and jockey Harry Hernandez has posted a 22% win rate and hit the board in 58% of races over the past year — that's A-grade production. The concern is a thin record at Delta Downs (placed in just 1 of 4), so manage expectations, but she's a logical landing spot for place money.

show7Sarah's RollingML 3/1

Sarah's Rolling opens at 3/1 on the morning line and carries a pair of class-drop angles — her claiming price was cut from $7,500 to $5,000, which typically signals a connections' intent to get a win. Jockey Casey Fusilier brings an A grade with a 19% win rate over the past year. The concern worth noting: she's coming in with only 13 days of rest and her form is better with 30-plus days between races, so a bit of caution is warranted. Still, the class relief and live jockey make her a logical show play in exotics.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Faye L.18%
1Miss Landlock16%
7Sarah's Rolling15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Faye L. in Race 1 is as clean a free-race play as you'll find on this card. She not only leads all entrants in recent race speed but brings a dirt-track resume that shows real consistency — horses who place in 12 of 17 starts on a surface don't do that by accident. Our TrackWiz rating has her at 84.17, tops in the field, and our simulations give her a 17.68% win probability against a morning line that implies roughly 17% — so she's right at fair value, maybe a touch above it. On a clear, fast-playing track, her speed advantage is real.

The dirt surface is the common thread across today's entire card, and on a day like this — dry, mild, no weather variables — recent speed figures carry extra weight. Horses that have been running fast numbers in their last couple of starts tend to be rewarded when the track is playing true, and that's the lens we're using to frame every race today.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:08 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Maiden claimers going a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt — a testing route distance for a field of horses still chasing their first win, and one horse stands well clear of the pack on the TrackWiz model, though pockets of intrigue remain underneath.

win8Candy DreaminML 4/1

Candy Dreamin is the class of this field by a wide margin, carrying an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and ranking first in recent race speed at 13.06 sec/furlong. She's paired with jockey Harry Hernandez, who has delivered a 22% win rate and a 58% in-the-money clip over the past year — that's about as good as it gets at this level. Trainer Juan A. Larrosa earns an A- grade, adding another layer of confidence in the connections. She dominated 25.18% of our 10,000 simulations, more than any horse in the field, making her a deserving top choice even as a 4/1 morning line.

place9Justice for JohnnyML 5/1

Justice for Johnny is our second-ranked horse at 63.31 and has solid workout credentials — ranking second in the field over the last month at 12.75 sec/furlong and second in recent race speed at 13.17. He's a logical underneath play, though the jockey concern is real: Julio Ramirez, Jr. has posted just a 7% win rate and a 26% in-the-money mark over the past year, which puts some drag on the upside. If the horse runs his best, the talent is there for a piece.

show4FultonML 6/1

Fulton checks in third on the TrackWiz ratings at 60.29 and owns the best workout in the field over the last month at 12.50 sec/furlong — a meaningful positive heading into a maiden route. Jockey Isaac Castillo has been productive, with a 20% win rate and 52% in-the-money rate over the past year. The knock is that his recent race speed ranks ninth in the field, so the works will need to translate to race day. At 6/1 on the morning line, he's a reasonable show play for exacta and trifecta coverage.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Candy Dreamin25%
5Perfect Timing14%
9Justice for Johnny13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:36 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

An intriguing maiden claiming sprint at seven furlongs where the top-rated horse on the TrackWiz model is a double-digit morning line price, creating a potential value situation if the form cycle holds — this race is worth scrutinizing carefully rather than defaulting to the chalk.

win7OnedayatatimeML 12/1

Onedayatatime is the top-rated horse in this field at 73.96 despite opening at 12/1 on the morning line — that gap between rating and odds is exactly the kind of value angle TrackWiz is built to find. She's placed in 7 of 12 dirt starts and has hit the board in each of her last five races, which is as consistent a form line as you'll find in a maiden field. The concern is that her claiming price jumped from $5,000 to $20,000, a significant step up in class that the connections must believe she can handle. Her jockey carries a modest 7% win rate over the past year, so the horse will need to do the talking herself.

place6Daddy's Last SweetML 7/2

Daddy's Last Sweet is rated just behind at 72.70 and comes in with legitimate current form — she's placed in each of her last two starts and ranks first in workouts over the past month at 12.60 sec/furlong. The combination of live recent form and a sharp drillline makes her a natural place contender in this maiden event. At 7/2 on the morning line she's not offering a ton of value to win, but she's a solid piece underneath in exactas.

show1Running FaithML 5/2

Running Faith opens at 5/2 as the morning line favorite and ranks third in the field on the TrackWiz model at 69.10, with recent race speed ranking second at 12.99 sec/furlong. Jockey Alex Birzer has a 18% win rate and a 50% in-the-money rate over the past year, which is genuine production. The concern is four consecutive off-the-board finishes and a thin record at Delta Downs, so she's not a lock — but as the public choice she should attract backing, and she's a logical show play to round out trifectas.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Running Faith21%
6Daddy's Last Sweet20%
9Princess Deeana14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

7:04 PM EST

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming sprint where one horse separates itself cleanly from the field on both speed and rating metrics — the question is whether the morning line underestimates the gap between the top pick and everyone else.

win6Cutting ClassML 4/1

Cutting Class is simply the horse to beat here, posting an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — highest in the field — while also ranking first in recent race speed at 12.39 sec/furlong, fastest among the starters. The connections are as sharp as it gets: jockey David Cardoso has a 20% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate over the past year, and the jockey-trainer combo with Mark N. Hibdon has clicked at a 23% win rate and 61% in-the-money mark. She won 24.3% of our 10,000 simulations, and at 4/1 on the morning line there's real value here for a horse that checks nearly every box.

place3Time to TellML 7/2

Time to Tell comes in second on the TrackWiz ratings at 65.01 and brings a strong dirt record — 2 wins and placed in 2 of 4 starts on the surface. The claiming price drop from $10,000 to $5,000 is a significant class relief angle, and Alex Birzer's 18% win rate and 50% in-the-money mark over the past year are reliable. The one flag worth flagging: her recent race speed ranks ninth in the field at 14.68 sec/furlong, so she'll need to show more early zip than her recent form suggests.

show2Midnight MischiefML 6/1

Midnight Mischief ranks third in the field at 62.30 and owns the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.45 sec/furlong, which keeps her in the conversation for a spot on the board. A 22% career win rate and a 33% in-the-money rate show she can run with this level. Jockey Devin H. Magnon earns a B grade and the trainer Joe O. Duhon checks in at B as well — a quietly competent team. She's a solid show option in exotics without asking you to get too cute.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Cutting Class24%
3Time to Tell18%
1Phila Street17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

7:32 PM EST

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A claiming route at seven and a half furlongs that features an odds-on favorite who clearly dominates the TrackWiz model, but a pair of live horses underneath create enough interest for multi-race wagering.

win2GrazedML 9/5

Grazed is the standout in this field, posting an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the competition — while averaging 56 in speed, tops in the race. Jockey Harry Hernandez continues his strong meet with a 22% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year, and the jockey-trainer combination with Jonathan Wong has been clicking at a 27% win rate and 66% in-the-money mark. He won 29.24% of our 10,000 simulations, which is consistent with his morning line of 9/5. The age concern is real at 8 years old, and his dirt record is thinner than you'd like, but current form makes him the right top choice.

place5Vodka MartiniML 5/1

Vodka Martini is a strong underneath play at 5/1 on the morning line, bringing a 23% career win rate and an 82.29 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field. She's placed in 5 of her last 6 races — that kind of consistency is exactly what you want from a place horse — and she leads the field with the fastest recent race speed at 12.12 sec/furlong. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez earns an A grade. The age flag of 6 years old exists, but her recent form makes it easy to look past.

show6Red RoadML 4/1

Red Road is a fascinating angle here: she has 2 wins and has placed in all 4 of her starts at the 7½-furlong distance, making today's conditions essentially her home turf. The 70.62 TrackWiz rating ranks third in the field and her in-the-money rate of 48% speaks to overall consistency. The concern is her age at 7 years, which the model flags as past prime, but horses with that kind of distance-specific record deserve respect. At 4/1, she's a natural show play and worth including in exactas beneath the top two.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Grazed29%
5Vodka Martini18%
6Red Road15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

8:00 PM EST

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint where the morning line favorite at 2/1 carries a significant rating advantage over the field, but an interesting rest-pattern concern creates just enough uncertainty to keep things watchable — and potentially valuable — underneath.

win9Blue Chair BayML 2/1

Blue Chair Bay tops the TrackWiz model at 88.54 and is paired with jockey Harry Hernandez, who has posted a 22% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year — with the trainer-jockey combo with Shane Wilson producing a 22% win rate and 53% in-the-money mark. She's placed in 4 of her last 6 races, showing she's in solid current form. The notable concern: at 43 days off, she falls into a rest bracket where she's historically underperformed — her WPS rate drops to 16.7% with 30-plus days of rest versus 57.1% with less. That caveat is worth watching, but she won 30.3% of our 10,000 simulations and the talent level is hard to ignore.

place5After PartyML 6/1

After Party ranks second in the field at 68.52 and brings a jockey-trainer combination angle worth highlighting — the Barrera-Munoz Cano duo has a 24% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate over the past year, which is a sharp pairing. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse whose connections are running hot. She's a logical place play, especially if Blue Chair Bay's layoff affects her edge.

show1Last AttackML 3/1

Last Attack opens at 3/1 and comes into this race with a class drop — down from $10,000 to $5,000 — which often signals a connections' push for a win. Her recent race speed ranks second in the field at 12.58 sec/furlong, and Alex Birzer's 18% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate over the past year give the mount credibility. The concern is a five-race losing streak, which is hard to dismiss, but the class relief and speed figures keep her in the show conversation for trifecta builders.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

9Blue Chair Bay30%
1Last Attack16%
5After Party14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

8:28 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 5 fur · Dirt

A short five-furlong starter allowance sprint where one horse dominates the simulations so thoroughly that the real handicapping question is who fills out the exotics beneath him — the second and third choices are genuinely competitive for the minor spots.

win9Prado's PriorityML 2/1

Prado's Priority is simply in a class of his own here, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.96 sec/furlong — the kind of figures that jump off the page in a five-furlong sprint. His career win rate of 40% and in-the-money rate of 81% are exceptional, and jockey Harry Hernandez has been excellent with a 22% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year — with the Wong-Hernandez combo clicking at 27% wins and 66% in the money. He won 38.19% of our 10,000 simulations. The age concern at 7 years old is noted, but his numbers say he's still producing.

place4StovallML 6/1

Stovall ranks second on the TrackWiz model at 50.91 and shows recent form worth noting — he's placed in each of his last two starts and his recent race speed ranks second in the field at 12.06 sec/furlong. Jockey Colby J. Hernandez earns an A- grade and trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez comes in with an A — a strong team to have on a horse looking to hold a place position. At 6/1, he offers real value underneath the heavy favorite.

show1Avery's GemML 5/1

Avery's Gem earns a third-place ranking at 49.44 and brings a strong overall profile for this level — 4 wins in 24 dirt starts with a 55% in-the-money rate. She also owns the best workout in the field over the past month at 12.20 sec/furlong, suggesting she's primed and ready. The concern is her jockey's modest 7% win rate over the past year. At 5/1 on the morning line, she's a reasonable show play and trifecta piece behind the top two.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

9Prado's Priority38%
1Avery's Gem12%
4Stovall12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

8:56 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claimer with a clear top-rated horse that enters on a class drop, while two other horses with strong recent form and route records make this race more competitive underneath than the morning line might suggest.

win10Heats HeroML 2/1

Heats Hero leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.11 and enters this race on a claiming price drop from $10,000 to $5,000 — a meaningful class relief angle. He's placed in 4 of his last 6 starts, showing consistent current form, and trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez earns a top A grade with jockey Colby J. Hernandez providing an A- ride. He won 27.34% of our 10,000 simulations. As the 2/1 morning line favorite, there's not a ton of overlay, but the combination of class drop and in-form connections makes him a deserving top pick.

place9Grey StreetML 8/1

Grey Street is a strong place play at 8/1 on the morning line, ranking second in the field at 79.79 and showing an impressive route record — placed in 4 of 6 starts at a mile and placed in 4 of his last 6 overall. His dirt ledger of 12 in-the-money finishes from 23 starts is quietly excellent. The concern is a middling workout recently, but jockey Jose Luis Rodriguez earns an A- grade and the form cycle is pointing in the right direction.

show1El ChavoML 7/2

El Chavo comes in third on the TrackWiz model at 74.93 and enters this race as a recent winner — he won last time out on October 16, 2026, and his recent race speed ranks first in the field at 12.75 sec/furlong. That combination of current form and speed figures is exactly what you want in a show play. The concern is a thin record at the mile distance — just 1 of 6 starts in the money at a mile — so his best form may come at shorter trips. Still, a live winner backed by solid speed numbers deserves respect in the exotics.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

10Heats Hero27%
1El Chavo20%
2Paired14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Faye L. in Race 1 is the free play of the day — fastest speed figure on dirt, consistent record, and fair morning line odds. For the full eight-race breakdown including pace shapes, exotic strategies, and our best value plays from Race 2 through Race 8, premium subscribers have everything they need. Have a great card at Delta Downs today.

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