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Delta Downs Picks & Predictions — October 16, 2026

October 16, 20269 racesAll Delta Downs picks

Happy Friday from Delta Downs, where Mother Nature is cooperating in a big way. Clear skies and a comfortable 76°F mean a fast, consistent dirt surface all afternoon — the kind of day where speed figures hold their value and pace scenarios play out the way you'd expect. Nine races on the card, and TrackWiz has been through every last one of them.

Today's card is a nice mix of maiden sprints, claiming battles, and a couple of mile routes that should bring out the closers. We've got longshot angles in the early races and a pair of high-rated contenders — Game Port and El Chavo — drawing attention in the back half of the card. Lots to work with today.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top trio from the rest of the field — but with zeroes in the win column across the board, anything can happen first time out.

win3Cinco BlakeML 8/1

Cinco Blake tops our TrackWiz ratings at 77.62 in a race where no horse has ever won, making raw ability the primary separator. Trainer Henry West Jr. saddles two entrants today, which signals confidence in the barn's stock, and Javier Antonio Hernandez is a reliable pilot to get the job done. With an average speed figure of 54 — matching the pace tier of the leading group — Cinco Blake has the profile of a horse that can press or stalk and still have something left at the wire in this short five-furlong dash.

place7Dawson JamesML 5/1

Dawson James checks in with a 68.44 rating and a 54 average speed figure, putting him squarely in the mix from a pace standpoint. Trainer Fermin Soto keeps things simple with Juan P. Vargas in the irons, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's some real place value here if Cinco Blake gets the win. In a race this competitive among the top three, Dawson James figures to be fighting for the runner-up spot at a price.

show2La Norme de JourML 5/2

La Norme de Jour opens at 5/2 as the public's second choice, trained by the well-regarded W. Bret Calhoun, who knows how to spot a maiden. His 67.21 TrackWiz rating is the third-best in the field and his 53 average speed figure keeps him honest in the pace scenario. He's a logical exotics anchor for anyone looking to key the top two and save.

Race 2

10:08 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The top of this claiming field is loaded — four horses rate 67 or better — setting up a genuine pace battle over six and a half furlongs that should sort out the deep closers.

win4Running BayouML 5/2

Running Bayou is our best bet in Race 2, posting the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 81.46 with a solid 54 average speed figure to back it up. The 5/2 morning line reflects public awareness, but the rating gap between Running Bayou and the rest of the field is meaningful. Trainer Isai V. Gonzalez has Jose Luis Rodriguez up, a capable jockey for a horse that should be sitting close to the pace in a six-and-a-half-furlong test. A 4% career win rate isn't alarming in a claiming context — it's the speed figures and current form that matter most here.

place6Gold ThiefML 6/1

Gold Thief is the most intriguing number two option on the card, rating 80.06 — just a hair behind Running Bayou — while opening at a generous 6/1 morning line. Trainer Lee Thomas puts Thomas L. Pompell on board, and the 54 average speed figure matches the top tier of this field. At that price, Gold Thief is a strong place play and deserves consideration as a win alternative in your exotics.

show3GomarkgoML 9/2

Gomarkgo sits third in our ratings at 70.07 and goes off at 9/2 despite having no career wins on record — suggesting he's lightly raced and improving. The 53 average speed figure is right in the mix, and trainer Kearney Segura has Kelvin Arana up for a horse that projects as a stalker type in this pace-honest sprint. In a field with multiple speed horses, a closer like Gomarkgo can sneak into the show spot when things get heated up front.

Race 3

10:36 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden field at six and a half furlongs with a massive ratings gap between the top two and the rest — Rosie's Getaway stands out, but the second spot is genuinely contested.

win11Rosie's GetawayML 6/1

Rosie's Getaway is the class of this field by a wide margin, posting a 76.84 TrackWiz rating — nearly 20 points clear of the next realistic contender. Trained by Joe O. Duhon, who also sends out Andrea Lee, Elio J. Barrera gets the call on the more-preferred runner. Her 54 average speed figure is tops in the field, and in a maiden race at this level, that combination of raw rating and speed figure makes her a confident top selection despite the 6/1 morning line.

place8G's SoxyML 5/2

G's Soxy is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 despite rating second to Rosie's Getaway at 57.50, which actually creates some value on our top pick. Trainer Patricia G. West sends out Isaac Castillo, and the 54 average speed figure matches Rosie's Getaway at the top of the speed chart. G's Soxy figures to be involved throughout and is the most likely horse to keep pace with our top choice, making her a strong place bet.

show5Andrea LeeML 7/2

Andrea Lee opens at 7/2 with a 55.83 rating — the third-best in the field — and benefits from being in the Duhon barn, which clearly has live horses today. Her 53 average speed figure puts her a tick below the top two but in contention for a piece of the exotics. Colby J. Hernandez gets the mount, and in a race where the pace could get honest with multiple entrants, a horse with this kind of trainer support can certainly fill out a trifecta.

We're opening up three races for every reader today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and there's genuine value scattered across all of them. Cinco Blake draws our eye in the maiden sprint opener despite being listed at 8/1 on the morning line, which our model thinks is generous given his TrackWiz rating of 77.62 in a wide-open field. In Race 2, Running Bayou (5/2) is the most straightforward play of the free trio — a solid 81.46 rating in a 6½-furlong claiming dash on a surface that should suit him perfectly under these conditions. And in Race 3, Rosie's Getaway at 6/1 is the kind of overlay you love to find early in a card.

One thread connecting these early races: the clear, dry conditions today favor horses that can apply early pressure and sustain it. Keep an eye on the pace in each of these sprints — front-runners with clean early fractions have been holding on nicely on this kind of fast, sealed surface.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:04 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

This claiming sprint over five furlongs features a clear TrackWiz standout at the top but a deep mid-tier cluster that makes the exotics tricky — the pace scenario will be crucial.

win4Mr. GoodtimeML 4/1

Mr. Goodtime is the play in Race 4, and it's not particularly close at the top of the ratings — his 82.47 TrackWiz score leads the field by nearly three points over Adelyn's Rocking. What really jumps out is his 33% career win rate, which is elite company in a claiming race of this size. Trainer Joaquin E. Garza puts Javier Antonio Hernandez on board, and the 55 average speed figure matches his form cycle well for this five-furlong trip. At 4/1 on the morning line, he's a legitimate win play.

place6Adelyn's RockingML 8/1

Adelyn's Rocking is the value piece of this ticket — an 8/1 morning line price on a horse that rates second in the field at 79.79. Her 56 average speed figure is actually the highest in the race, suggesting she's capable of running with anyone on pure ability. Trainer Mark N. Hibdon puts David Cardoso up, and in a five-furlong sprint where early fractions can be punishing, a horse with this kind of top-end speed can absolutely pick up the pieces for second money.

show7BelloML 6/1

Bello rates 61.66 and opens at 6/1 with a 54 average speed figure, giving trainer Isai V. Gonzalez another live runner to go alongside his other entrants on the card today. He's well-placed in this field — not a standout, but a solid mid-tier horse whose profile fits the show position in a hot five-furlong pace scenario. Elio J. Barrera, who has several mounts today, is a jockey comfortable navigating traffic in short sprints.

Race 5

11:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Seven furlongs of dirt and a pair of TrackWiz powerhouses at the top — Game Port and American City — threaten to run away from the field if either one gets loose on the lead.

win5Game PortML 3/1

Game Port is the top-rated horse in Race 5 at 86.60, making him our strongest win selection of the first five races on the card. The 3/1 morning line reflects his obvious class, and Juan P. Vargas — one of the busier riders in this meet — gets the call for trainer Juan A. Larrosa. His 54 average speed figure and a 16% career win rate are both respectable for a claiming seven-furlong race, and there's no obvious pace threat that should compromise his trip.

place7American CityML 5/1

American City rates just a hair behind Game Port at 84.17 and has an eye-catching 25% career win rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness. Trainer Randy Degeyter Jr. has Jansen Melancon up — a capable handler for a longer sprint distance — and the 54 average speed figure keeps him in the same conversation as the top pick. At 5/1, he's a legitimate win threat and a near-lock to hit the board.

show4Out Run'mML 6/1

Out Run'm slots in third on our ratings at 69.16 with a 54 average speed figure and opens at 6/1 for trainer Joel Berndt. Timothy Thornton takes the ride, and while Out Run'm has a 9% career win rate, he profiles as a stalker type who can capitalize if the top two engage each other too aggressively in the early going. He's a sensible exotics inclusion to complete your trifecta around the top two.

Race 6

12:00 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The Starter Optional Claiming mile is anchored by a legitimate standout in Madison Rae, but Watering's strong win percentage and Blueberry Eyes' class ensure this won't be a walkover.

win2Madison RaeML 7/2

Madison Rae is the clear top selection in Race 6, posting a field-best 86.35 TrackWiz rating while also carrying a 28% career win rate — that's a rare combination of ability and consistency. Trainer Jonathan Wong sends her out with Isaac Castillo in the irons, and while her 52 average speed figure sits just below the pace tier, the mile distance should allow her to close into a pace that figures to get honest up front. At 7/2, she's not an overlay, but the rating gap makes her confidence-inspiring.

place6WateringML 5/2

Watering is the value piece here — a 5/2 morning line on a horse with a 30% career win rate, the highest in the field. Trainer George Leonard III has Harry Hernandez up, and the 53 average speed figure puts her right in the tactical mix for a one-mile trip. Her win percentage suggests she has a habit of hitting the board, which makes the place bet an efficient way to get involved without paying full chalk prices.

show4Blueberry EyesML 9/2

Blueberry Eyes rates 68.76 with a 21% career win rate and opens at 9/2 for trainer Jervon Broussard. Jamison Mudd gets the ride, and in a one-mile Starter Optional Claiming event, a horse with this combination of rating and win percentage is worth including in the exotics. She should be running on late, and if the pace gets hot between the top two, there's a clear path for Blueberry Eyes to be picking up pieces at the wire.

Race 7

12:28 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Drilling Report dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this five-furlong claiming sprint, but Wild Bert and Stovall lurk as serious threats at bigger prices — the pace could be fast and furious early.

win2Drilling ReportML 7/2

Drilling Report is the top-rated horse in Race 7 at 85.12 — a significant edge over a field where most contenders cluster in the 55-77 range. Trainer Juan Munoz Cano has been active all card, and Elio J. Barrera takes the call on what looks like the barn's preferred runner over five furlongs. A 14% career win rate is workmanlike rather than flashy, but the rating and 55 average speed figure project a horse ready to handle this level at today's distance.

place10Wild BertML 10/1

Wild Bert at 10/1 is one of the more intriguing place plays on the entire card — a 76.88 rating that would be the top figure in most races at this level, buried under a double-digit morning line. Trainer Ronnie Averett has Harry Hernandez up, and the 55 average speed figure is right there with the best in the race. His 17% career win rate isn't flashy but is perfectly serviceable, and at 10/1, place money on Wild Bert is genuinely juicy value.

show3StovallML 5/1

Stovall rates 76.76 — essentially a dead heat with Wild Bert — and carries a 20% career win rate that ranks among the strongest in this field. Trainer Samuel Breaux sends out Isaac Castillo, who has been prominent throughout the card today, and the 55 average speed figure fits the pace profile of this five-furlong sprint. If Drilling Report dominates and Wild Bert fills the place hole, Stovall is the most logical show finisher in a race where the top three are closely matched.

Race 8

12:56 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The allowance mile is the highest-class race of the night, and Jojo Bean stands alone at the top of the ratings — but Legal Empress and a pair of Brinkman runners add enough depth to make the exotics interesting.

win5Jojo BeanML 7/2

Jojo Bean is the most dominant-rated horse in Race 8, posting an 86.35 TrackWiz score that matches Madison Rae's figure from Race 6 — and this is the allowance nightcap. Trainer Allen Landry gets Jansen Melancon up, a strong pairing for a one-mile dirt route, and the 23% career win rate underscores that this filly knows how to close out a race. At 7/2 in a race where the next-best rated horse is Legal Empress at 74.01, the gap at the top is real and the morning line is fair.

place6Legal EmpressML 3/1

Legal Empress is the 3/1 morning-line favorite despite rating second at 74.01 — which tells you the public is higher on her than TrackWiz, but there's reason to respect her here. A 29% career win rate is excellent for the allowance level, and Timothy Thornton, who has been aboard multiple horses tonight, is a steady hand for a distance of one mile. She's a legitimate place option, especially if the pace scenario sets up for a closer.

show9Prima BellaML 8/1

Prima Bella opens at 8/1 with a 65.95 rating and a 23% career win rate — the same win percentage as Jojo Bean, which is interesting for a horse priced this generously. Trainer Brett A. Brinkman, who also saddles Nomoretanlines in this race, clearly has live horses, and Carlos Perez aboard is a capable pilot. As a show play and exotics anchor, Prima Bella at 8/1 rounds out a trifecta ticket at a price worth paying.

Race 9

1:24 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

The late-night maiden claiming closer at seven and a half furlongs has a clear one-two punch at the top — El Chavo and Straight Dropbilly are separated from a crowded, winless field by a considerable ratings margin.

win8El ChavoML 2/1

El Chavo is the top-rated horse on the entire card tonight, posting an 87.84 TrackWiz score while opening at just 2/1 — the morning line is short, but the number earns it. Trainer Isai V. Gonzalez has been one of the most active stables all card, and Elio J. Barrera, also riding multiple mounts tonight, gets the call on what figures to be the stable's best. A 52 average speed figure is consistent with the pace tier in a maiden claiming route, and at seven and a half furlongs, there's plenty of distance for a horse of this caliber to do its work.

place3Straight DropbillyML 3/1

Straight Dropbilly is the second-highest-rated horse in Race 9 at 84.27 and opens at 3/1 — making the place ticket a solid way to play both top horses without sweating the exacta price. Trainer Juan A. Larrosa puts Carlos Perez aboard, the same jockey who is also named on Whatdidwedo (program No. 12), but Straight Dropbilly's 84+ rating is clearly the preferred mount. In a maiden field where most horses are well below 60, these top two are in a class of their own.

show5Doble CaprichoML 8/1

Doble Capricho fills out the exotics at 8/1 with a 72.34 rating — the third-best in the field and well ahead of the pack beyond the top two. Trainer Cesar Govea has Javier Antonio Hernandez up for a horse that figures to run a competitive race even without winning. His 52 average speed figure is consistent with the top tier here, and in a maiden field that's largely unproven, getting Doble Capricho into a trifecta at 8/1 is exactly the kind of value play that pays off in exotics.

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Clear skies, fast dirt, and nine races with plenty of angles — Delta Downs is serving up a quality Friday card. Cinco Blake, Running Bayou, and Rosie's Getaway headline the free best bets, while El Chavo and the rest of the premium card are waiting for subscribers. Dig in, build your tickets, and let's have a big day at the window. Full analysis is live now for TrackWiz subscribers.

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