Daily Picks

Delta Downs Picks & Predictions — June 17, 2026

Wednesday, June 17, 20268 racesDelta Downs

It's a wet Wednesday at Delta Downs — rain is falling and the mercury is sitting at 81°F, which means you can expect a sealed, fast-playing dirt strip that tends to favor early speed. In short-field quarter-horse sprints like the ones on today's card, a good break out of the gate is everything, and a slick surface only amplifies that edge.

Eight races are on the board today, spanning distances from a blink-and-you'll-miss-it 250 yards all the way out to 400 yards — every single one on the dirt. The card leans heavily on maiden and trial action, which means raw talent, pace scenarios that can be tough to read, and the kind of value opportunities that reward sharp handicapping over gut instinct.

Three races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, and they happen to include two of the most compelling spots on the card — a pair of 400-yard Trials in Races 2 and 3 where our top-rated horses are drawing morning-line favoritism for good reason.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint at 250 yards with an all-debut field — no career wins or speed figures to lean on, so TrackWiz ratings become the primary separator in a genuinely wide-open opener.

win5LuvstoriML 2/1

Luvstori draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 and backs it up with the field's top TrackWiz rating of 58.33, a meaningful edge over a tight cluster of rivals. In a 250-yard maiden dash where raw ability off the break is everything, that ratings cushion matters. J. R. Ramirez gets the call from trainer Gilberto Rosales, and this figures to be the horse to beat out of the gate.

place1Missed CallML 3/1

Missed Call sits just 1.66 rating points behind Luvstori at 56.67, making the 3/1 morning line look fair rather than generous. Arturo Alvarez is the pilot for trainer Trey Ellis, and in a race this short there's little margin for error — but Missed Call's proximity to the top rating makes a place finish a reasonable expectation.

show2Mda Cartel WerkerML 7/2

Mda Cartel Werker checks in at 55.83 under Flavio Garcia for trainer Orlando Orozco, the third-highest rating in the field and likely third choice at 7/2 on the board. In a first-time starter dash like this, keeping the top three rated horses together in exotics is sound construction — Cartel Werker rounds out the trifecta nicely.

Race 2

11:40 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

A 400-yard trial with two legitimate standouts at the top — Marcy Train B and Jess Another Mornin both carry elite ratings and identical 30% career win marks, setting up a compelling one-two punch with a clear class gap to the rest.

win3Marcy Train BML EVN

Marcy Train B earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at a perfect 90 and draws even-money on the morning line, signaling the market agrees this is a class apart. A 30% career win rate is strong for the discipline, and Jorge Javier Garcia gets the mount for trainer Josue Ponce. When a horse tops both the algorithmic ratings and the morning line at even money in a trial, that's a convergence worth respecting.

place5Jess Another MorninML 4/1

Jess Another Mornin is the legitimate threat here — an 82.05 TrackWiz rating pairs with a 30% career win rate, identical to the top pick, and Rene Hernandez is a capable hand at this level for trainer Danny Hoda. At 4/1, there's real value if this horse earns a qualifying spot as the runner-up in the trial. Don't let the morning line gap to Marcy Train B fool you — this is a very live second horse.

show2Brown Eyez BabyML 9/2

Brown Eyez Baby holds a 64.03 rating and a respectable 28% career win rate under Jose Ariel Rodriguez for trainer Kenneth L. Roberts, Sr. — a barn worth noting at this track. The 9/2 morning line suggests the market is treating this as a supporting player, which is a reasonable spot to use in the show position of a trifecta while leaning heavier on the top two.

Race 3

12:05 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Mamma Im Leaving You looks like a near-lock at 4/5, but the real intrigue is whether Smokeshow V — carrying a strong 83.52 rating against just a 9% win rate — can pull off a minor upset and push the favorite to earn her qualifying spot.

win7Mamma Im Leaving YouML 4/5

Mamma Im Leaving You carries a 90 TrackWiz rating — the maximum score — and a jaw-dropping 45% career win rate, the best in this field by a wide margin. Noe Castaneda takes the mount for trainer Jose U. Lopez, who also appears elsewhere on the card and clearly sends out live horses. At 4/5, the value isn't there for straight win bets, but this horse is the anchor of any exotic construction in Race 3.

place5Smokeshow VML 4/1

Smokeshow V is the most interesting second horse on the card today — an 83.52 rating and a 4/1 morning line despite a 9% career win rate that undersells the raw talent our analysis sees in the form lines. Leonardo Rodriguez rides for trainer Larry D. Keith, and if anything can challenge the favorite, this is the one. Grabbing Smokeshow V underneath in exactas with the heavy chalk could yield a solid return.

show3Geaux Aspen RoseML 6/1

Geaux Aspen Rose brings a 42% career win rate into the gate — actually higher than Smokeshow V — but a 66.31 rating suggests she's a tier below the top two on pure ability today. Ubaldo Luna pilots for Preston Jourdan at 6/1, and that win rate demands respect in a trial format where making the cut is the goal. A logical show piece and trifecta fill.

Our three free races today — Race 1 (250 yd Maiden Claiming), Race 2 (400 yd Trial), and Race 3 (400 yd Trial) — give you a solid foundation to build a winning day. In the Trial races, Marcy Train B (R2, EVN morning line, 90.0 TrackWiz rating) and Mamma Im Leaving You (R3, 4/5 morning line, 90.0 rating) both earn our top marks, and those even-money or near-even prices reflect how strongly the market respects them. On a rain-affected track, horses with proven early speed and clean gate manners rise to the top — and both of these fit the profile.

Race 1 is a tighter puzzle — Luvstori draws our nod at 2/1 with a 58.33 rating in a wide-open maiden claiming field. The lower confidence score here is a reminder that early short-distance maiden races carry real uncertainty, and the rain adds another wrinkle. Treat it accordingly in your wagering.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Tk Eyema Struttin dominates the ratings sheet in this 250-yard claiming sprint, but the market has made Lacosta Piloto the 7/5 morning-line choice — a tension between TrackWiz data and public money that makes this race worth digging into.

win4Tk Eyema StruttinML 3/1

Tk Eyema Struttin posts the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.08 — a commanding 24-point advantage over the public's morning-line favorite — and a 14% career win rate that bests most rivals in this claiming field. Leonardo Rodriguez is a live jockey in this barn, and trainer Larry D. Keith has been active on the card today. At 3/1, you're getting real value on what our analysis considers the top horse, and that's a situation worth backing.

place2Tcb Eye B FamousML 5/1

Tcb Eye B Famous sits at 64.95 on the TrackWiz scale and draws 5/1 on the morning line — a workable price for a place play in a race where the favorite's legitimacy is questionable. Lucas Constantin rides for trainer Salvador G. Flores, who also has representation in Race 6 and 7, suggesting an active barn with horses in form. The low 3% career win rate is a slight concern, but the rating makes this a viable place horse.

show7Lacosta PilotoML 7/5

Lacosta Piloto is the public's 7/5 favorite, which means the market sees something we should acknowledge — Jose Ariel Rodriguez is aboard for trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara, and jockey confidence at short odds usually has a foundation. Our analysis rates this horse third at 62.62, which lines up nicely as a show selection if the public is right about the connection but our ratings are right about the ceiling.

Race 5

12:55 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 10-horse maiden at 400 yards where Fast Lane Train stands well clear of the field on ratings but draws an outlier program number, and the supporting cast has a few hidden contenders worth examining.

win10Fast Lane TrainML 2/1

Fast Lane Train posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — 15 full points clear of the next best horse — and draws 2/1 on the morning line, a fair price given the dominance. Pedro Chavarria Espinosa gets the mount for trainer Kenneth L. Roberts, Sr., who also had Brown Eyez Baby in Race 2 and clearly knows how to place horses to win. In a maiden sprint where no horse has earned a win yet, the ratings gap here is about as wide as you'll see — this is a strong top selection.

place8Poppin OffML 7/2

Poppin Off checks in with a 73.43 rating at 7/2 — the second-best number in the field by a comfortable margin — under Leonardo Rodriguez for trainer Jose U. Lopez. Lopez appears multiple times on today's card and is clearly one of the sharper outfits at Delta Downs right now. If Fast Lane Train stumbles or gets out of the gate poorly, Poppin Off is the most likely beneficiary in a 10-horse maiden field.

show9El Tada MoonML 6/1

El Tada Moon rates at 63.65 and draws 6/1 for jockey Rolando Cabrera and trainer Adalberto Miranda — a pairing that shows up again in Race 4 with El Goliad, suggesting an active barn. The rating sits in a meaningful gap above the lower half of this large field, and at 6/1 the show price in a trifecta makes El Tada Moon a sensible third wheel behind the top two.

Race 6

1:20 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A 10-horse maiden claiming sprint at 300 yards with a fragmented ratings sheet — no horse cracks 63 — making this one of the more genuinely competitive races on the card and a prime opportunity for exotic plays.

win7Mr Alligator DynastyML 2/1

Mr Alligator Dynasty leads all comers with a 62.11 TrackWiz rating and draws 2/1 on the morning line, the public co-signing our top selection. Juan Garcia-Gonzalez rides for trainer Salvador G. Flores, who is active multiple times today and has a strong read on the Delta Downs surface. In a maiden claiming sprint where no horse has a win to their name, that ratings edge — modest as it is — still represents the best angle in the race.

place2Dashin Pvc EagleML 4/1

Dashin Pvc Eagle rates at 55.0 and draws 4/1 for Lucas Constantin, also from the Salvador G. Flores barn — the same outfit as the top pick. It's worth noting that trainer Flores runs two horses in this field, which can sometimes signal split intentions, but Constantin is a capable pilot and the horse rates clearly among the top handful. At 4/1, this is a workable place play underneath the barn's top entry.

show4Ancient Bolt of FireML 9/2

Ancient Bolt of Fire posts a 54.17 rating at 9/2 for Rey O. Hernandez and trainer Miguel Hernandez — a pairing that also appears in Race 7 with Diamond Bolt of Fire, suggesting a connected barn bringing multiple runners to the track today. The rating narrowly edges Dashin Pvc Eagle's stablemate for third position on our sheet, and 9/2 in the show slot of a trifecta is reasonable value in this spread-out maiden field.

Race 7

1:45 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

The morning-line odds in Race 7 are inverted from the TrackWiz ratings — the public's 6/5 favorite rates third on our sheet while a 4/1 shot tops the analysis, creating a genuine overlay situation worth attacking.

win9Tf Mr RippML 4/1

Tf Mr Ripp tops the TrackWiz ratings at 68.59 despite drawing 4/1 on the morning line — a full 8+ points clear of the public's chalk — and J.R. Ramirez, Jr. takes the mount for trainer Salvador G. Flores, whose barn has been busy all day at Delta Downs. In a maiden at 400 yards, our analysis consistently rewards horses with a legitimate ratings advantage, and Tf Mr Ripp carries that edge here. This is a classic overlay scenario: the data says first, the market says third, and the gap may translate to tote board value.

place6Mr Jet FeesML 6/5

Mr Jet Fees is the 6/5 morning-line favorite and holds a 59.67 rating — respectable but third in the field per our analysis. Claudio Ponce Aguilar rides for trainer Gregorio Davila, and the public clearly trusts this connection. Even if our top pick wins, Mr Jet Fees at short odds is likely to finish nearby, making the place position a solid anchor for any exotic ticket built around Tf Mr Ripp on top.

show3Empressum Twopoint 0ML 6/1

Empressum Twopoint 0 checks in at 51.67 for Rodrigo Sigala Vallejo under trainer Viviane Hill — who also runs Lethal Revenge in this same race, giving the barn two shots at the board. At 6/1 on the morning line, Empressum Twopoint 0 offers show value in a nine-horse field where the top end is relatively close, and having a trainer with two runners increases the odds that at least one fires for the connections.

Race 8

2:10 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

Race 8 closes out the card with a 10-horse maiden claiming sprint at 300 yards where the entire field is first-time or win-less, and TrackWiz ratings become the sharpest edge available in separating the contenders from the pretenders.

win10Tf Five Bar JessML 5/2

Tf Five Bar Jess draws 5/2 on the morning line and leads the field with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating — a modest margin in a genuinely tight race, but the top number is the top number. Juan Francisco Garcia, Jr. pilots for trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia, and the mid-range morning line suggests the public respects this horse without going overboard. In a race where no horse has ever broken their maiden, that ratings edge in a compact 300-yard sprint can be all the separation needed.

place7Im LeavingML 7/2

Im Leaving carries a 55.83 rating and draws 7/2 for Servando Ramirez under trainer Paul Leal — the second-highest number in the field, separated from the top by less than two points. That proximity to Tf Five Bar Jess makes the place position almost as strong a play as the win in our view. At 7/2, the place price should still offer some value if the two top-rated horses finish as the analysis suggests.

show5Alekca CjML 9/2

Alekca Cj rates at 54.17 and draws 9/2 for Ubaldo Luna under trainer Preston Jourdan, whose barn also has a runner in Race 8 and has been solid throughout the card. The three-horse cluster at the top of this field — spanning just over three rating points — means the trifecta could come in any order among these three, and 9/2 in the show slot represents fair value for what is genuinely the third-best rated horse in the race.

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Bottom line: Marcy Train B and Mamma Im Leaving You are the two horses we'd most want in our corner today, and both are available in our free analysis. Beyond that, Fast Lane Train and Tk Eyema Struttin look like the premium horses worth building tickets around. The wet conditions at Delta today reward preparation — make sure yours is dialed in. Full card breakdowns, exotic strategies, and pace maps are live now for TrackWiz subscribers.

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