Daily Picks

Delta Downs Picks & Predictions — May 22, 2026

Friday, May 22, 20269 racesDelta Downs

We're heading to Delta Downs on a warm Louisiana Friday — partly cloudy skies, 84 degrees, and nine quick-burst quarter-horse races on the dirt. Conditions look fast and favorable, the kind of afternoon where gate speed rules and the best-breaking horses can run their number without excuses.

The headline attraction is Race 9, a Futurity that has Mc Blue Cartel installed as a heavy 3/5 morning-line chalk and earning our top TrackWiz rating on the entire card at a flat 90. Before we get there, Race 7's Stakes event gives us Kj Dashin Girl rated 87.81 — a legit stakes-quality filly who could shape up as the day's most interesting wager. Nine races, plenty of angles, and a pace setup that rewards doing your homework.

Three races are free to all TrackWiz readers today, giving you solid coverage through the first half of the card. The full nine-race breakdown — including our premium Futurity and Stakes analysis — is available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint at 300 yards where no horse has a prior win on the books — TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders in what figures to be a pure ability test right out of the gates.

win8Br Famous JetML 5/2

Br Famous Jet draws our top TrackWiz rating in this field at 57.5, and trainer Viviane Hill sends this one out at a morning line of 5/2, suggesting the connections believe they have the horse ready to fire. In a race full of first-time starters with zero career wins across the board, raw rating edge matters more than usual, and Br Famous Jet has the clearest numerical edge in the field. Jockey Adrian X. Morales climbs aboard, and with no experience separating these horses, talent indicators like this one tend to hold up in short sprints.

place5D Oh GML 7/2

D Oh G sits just behind the top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83 and goes at 7/2 on the morning line — solid value for a horse that profiles as the second-best talent in the field. Trainer Paul R. Rigdon sends this one out with Federico Vargas up, a workmanlike combination that can quietly get the job done. In a 300-yard dash, fractions of a rating point can mean photo finishes, and D Oh G has the profile to stay right in the thick of it.

show6Btn Big RippinML 5/1

Btn Big Rippin checks in with a 53.33 TrackWiz rating and draws the 5/1 morning line, making this horse a fair price to round out the trifecta. Trainer Jesus Huitron Lira saddles this one with Ubaldo Luna up, and the 5/1 number suggests the market respects this runner even in a tough field. As a short-price show option in exotics, Btn Big Rippin offers enough rating support to be a legitimate third-finisher threat.

Race 2

11:40 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

Valiant Heart Z towers over this allowance field on ratings, but a pair of horses sitting in the mid-to-high 60s make the exacta and trifecta spots genuinely interesting — the battle for second and third is the real story here.

win3Valiant Heart ZML 9/5

Valiant Heart Z is the class of this 350-yard allowance field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — a full 20 points clear of the next closest horse. The 9/5 morning line reflects that dominance, and a 37% career win rate is a legitimate number for a Quarter Horse at this level. Trainer Santiago Villaseca has this one primed and ready, and with Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. piloting, this looks like a confident, well-prepared favorite.

place6San Lorenzo CocoyML 3/1

San Lorenzo Cocoy sits second in our ratings at 68.65 with a 3/1 morning line, but that 14% career win rate is worth noting — this horse competes regularly without always closing the deal. That said, rating-wise, San Lorenzo Cocoy is clearly the second-best horse in the field, and trainer Juan C. Garcia has the horse in a spot where placing is a very realistic outcome. Leonardo Rodriguez gets the call in what should be a race for the silver medal.

show5Atta Boy SlimML 5/1

Atta Boy Slim rates at 67.58 — nearly identical to San Lorenzo Cocoy — and comes in at 5/1 with a 33% career win rate, which is actually quite respectable. Trainer Vann E. Haywood and jockey Federico Vargas form a familiar combination, and this horse's solid win percentage suggests it knows how to compete when ready. The ratings cluster around 67-68 for second and third means Atta Boy Slim is firmly in the mix for trifecta players.

Race 3

12:05 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

This 250-yard maiden claiming sprint features a genuine pace and talent puzzle — Hez Toasted leads on TrackWiz ratings but carries odds that suggest the market isn't fully sold, creating real value at the top of the ticket.

win5Hez ToastedML 5/1

Hez Toasted leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 71.51 yet goes off at 5/1 on the morning line — a meaningful overlay in a field where the 2/1 morning line horse rates noticeably lower. Trainer Dustin Rhodes has this one in capable hands with Adrian X. Morales aboard, a jockey who has been active throughout this card. In a 250-yard dash where there's virtually no time to make up ground, breaking on top with the highest rating in the field is a powerful combination.

place3Jc MilagroML 2/1

Jc Milagro is the morning line favorite at 2/1 with a solid TrackWiz rating of 65.9, and trainer Josue Ponce clearly sends this one out with high expectations. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. gets the mount — one of the more active and accomplished riders on today's card — which adds another layer of confidence. The 2/1 price makes this a place bet rather than a win overlay, but Jc Milagro is clearly talented enough to hit the board.

show2Pequena YayaML 3/1

Pequena Yaya rates at 56.67 and goes at 3/1 on the morning line, sitting third in our ratings while carrying a shorter morning line than Hez Toasted. Trainer Orlando Orozco sends this one out with Flavio Garcia up, and the competitive odds suggest there's stable confidence here. As a show play and exotic anchor, Pequena Yaya has enough rating to hang around when the top two are doing battle in a blink-and-you-miss-it 250-yard sprint.

Our three free races today span a range of conditions that actually tell a cohesive story. Race 1's Maiden Claimer at 300 yards kicks things off with Br Famous Jet (5/2 ML) as our top selection — a horse we like at a price in a wide-open field. Race 2 steps up in class to an Allowance at 350 yards, where Valiant Heart Z (9/5 ML) sits atop our model with an 88.83 rating — easily the strongest figure in the free tier and a horse worth anchoring if you're building early multi-race tickets. Then Race 3 at 250 yards gives us a fun Maiden Claiming angle with Hez Toasted at a generous 5/1 morning line, rated 71.51 by TrackWiz — a touch of value in a sprint that could see some pace chaos out of the gate.

With the track expected to be quick under these partly cloudy, warm conditions, early speed and clean gate breaks will be at a premium all afternoon. All three of our free top picks project as early movers — keep that theme in mind as you build your card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 400-yard claiming sprint where Paint the Tank's TrackWiz rating stands apart from the morning line favorite Cool Black — this is a race where our numbers and the oddsmakers tell slightly different stories, and that gap creates real betting interest.

win8Paint the TankML 6/1

Paint the Tank leads all comers with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 and a 22% career win rate — the highest win percentage in this field by a comfortable margin. The 6/1 morning line is a genuine overlay relative to that rating and win record, making this our top value play of the race. Trainer Jose Carrizales saddles this one with Randy Edison Jr. aboard, and a horse that wins nearly one in four starts at this level deserves to be shorter than 6/1.

place2Cool BlackML 5/2

Cool Black is the morning line chalk at 5/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 76.27 and a 16% career win rate — strong credentials, though our ratings have Paint the Tank rated above this one. Trainer Vann E. Haywood and jockey Federico Vargas are a reliable duo, and this horse's consistency makes it a safe place play even if it doesn't top our win picks. The crowd will likely make this horse even shorter on the board, so the value is in the place spot rather than the win.

show4Jp El HuerfanitoML 10/1

Jp El Huerfanito offers genuine intrigue at 10/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 69.43 and a 10% career win rate — not flashy numbers, but enough to legitimately compete for a piece of the trifecta. Trainer Emily Jeane sends this one out with Edgar Rene Baca up, and the price is attractive for an exotic play. At 400 yards there's a bit more room for late movers to factor in, and Jp El Huerfanito's rating puts it in legitimate third-place territory at a juicy price.

Race 5

12:55 AM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden sprint at 330 yards with a tight cluster of ratings in the mid-50s — the morning line spreads these horses fairly evenly, but TrackWiz analysis finds a clear edge at the top that the morning line underestimates.

win6Rc Leaving PresenceML 3/1

Rc Leaving Presence leads our ratings at 56.67 and goes off at 3/1, making this the morning line co-favorite alongside Lm Jess a Lady — but our analysis gives this one the edge. Trainer Kenneth L. Roberts, Sr. keeps Jose Ariel Rodriguez in the irons, and in a maiden field where every horse has a career win percentage of zero, a rating edge combined with a low program number is all you can ask for. The 3/1 morning line is fair, but our top rating gives us confidence this is the right horse to key.

place4Lm Jess a LadyML 4/1

Lm Jess a Lady rates at 55.0 and draws 4/1 on the morning line with Randy Edison Jr. aboard for trainer Levi Mays. This filly sits just a hair below our top pick on ratings but is close enough that the outcome could easily be reversed — making her a natural place play and exacta partner. In a field of maidens where all horses are first-timers statistically, Lm Jess a Lady's rating places her squarely in the mix for second-place honors.

show3Apollitical VodkaML 5/1

Apollitical Vodka comes in rated 53.33 with a 5/1 morning line, and trainer Trey Ellis sends this one out with Juan Francisco Garcia, Jr. up — a jockey who appears multiple times on today's card and clearly has strong connections at Delta Downs. The name Apollitical is a familiar bloodline brand in Quarter Horse racing, and a 53.33 rating is comfortably ahead of the back half of this field. At 5/1 in exotics, this is a legitimate trifecta piece for players wanting to cover their bases.

Race 6

1:20 AM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A deep ten-horse claiming field at 250 yards with four horses rated above 70 — this is one of the more competitive races on the card, with a legitimate battle shaping up among Oh My Fortunes, Bugs Gone Rogue, and Locomotive.

win3Oh My FortunesML 3/1

Oh My Fortunes tops our ratings at 84.01 and goes at 3/1 on the morning line, making this our win pick in a race with real depth. Trainer Eduardo L. Morales sends this one with Noe Castaneda up, and a 6% career win rate in what appears to be a high-frequency runner profile is worth noting — this horse shows up and competes regularly. The 84.01 TrackWiz rating is the highest in a very competitive field, and at 3/1, this is a fair-priced top selection rather than an overlay.

place2Bugs Gone RogueML 6/1

Bugs Gone Rogue rates just behind our top pick at 82.09 — an extremely close second — and goes off at 6/1 on the morning line, which is where the value lives in this race. Trainer Luis R. Martinez, Jr. puts Eddi Emanuel Martinez in the saddle, and a 5% career win rate on what appears to be a well-traveled horse tells us this one is competitive in this company. If Oh My Fortunes gets beat, Bugs Gone Rogue is the most likely beneficiary based on our numbers, and the 6/1 price makes this an ideal exacta play.

show4LocomotiveML 5/2

Locomotive carries a TrackWiz rating of 77.99 and is the second choice on the morning line at 5/2, which means the public is higher on this one than our pure rating suggests. Trainer Larry D. Keith and jockey Humberto Vital combine on a horse that has a 4% career win rate — modest, but this is a sprinting field where pace and draw can be decisive. The 5/2 price keeps this horse from being a value show play, but its rating confirms it legitimately belongs in the trifecta equation.

Race 7

1:45 AM EDT

Stakes · 330 yd · Dirt

Stakes company at 330 yards and Kj Dashin Girl dominates the ratings while sitting at a fair morning line — Sheza Sneakin Bayou's 33% career win rate makes the exacta genuinely interesting in this ten-horse field.

win6Kj Dashin GirlML 5/2

Kj Dashin Girl leads the entire field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and goes at 5/2 on the morning line — a fair price for a stakes horse showing this level of form. Trainer Josue Ponce sends this one with Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. up, one of the most active riders on today's card. In a stakes race where the cream usually rises to the top, a rating that clears the next-best horse by more than 10 points is a powerful angle, and we're confident this is the horse to beat.

place2Sheza Sneakin BayouML 9/2

Sheza Sneakin Bayou rates at 77.01 and carries the most compelling career win percentage in this field at 33% — meaning this horse converts roughly one in three starts into a victory. Trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia puts Juan Francisco Garcia, Jr. aboard, another high-profile booking on a stakes card. The 9/2 morning line on a horse with that kind of win rate and a top-three rating is solid value, and Sheza Sneakin Bayou looks like the natural exacta partner to Kj Dashin Girl.

show7Fully LoadeddML 7/2

Fully Loadedd rates at 55.83 with a 7/2 morning line — the public sees something in this runner that makes it third choice despite trailing our top two picks on ratings by a significant margin. Trainer Jose U. Lopez also saddles Blue Heart Z in this race, showing dual representation, and Leonardo Rodriguez gets the call on Fully Loadedd. While the rating gap is real, the market price and trainer presence make this a viable trifecta piece for players constructing multi-horse combinations.

Race 8

2:10 AM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse 250-yard maiden sprint where Blues Leavingyou leads on ratings but carries the 2/1 morning line chalk tag — Rose Night and Princester are close enough on the numbers to make this a competitive tri-finisher puzzle.

win10Blues LeavingyouML 2/1

Blues Leavingyou tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 and draws the 2/1 morning line, confirming that both our analysis and the oddsmakers agree this is the horse to beat. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III sends this one out with Humberto Vital aboard, and in a field of first-time-style maiden starters, the rating edge is the primary weapon. At 250 yards, there's no room for error — the best horse at the break usually wins, and Blues Leavingyou has the numbers to support that role.

place3Rose NightML 7/2

Rose Night rates at 55.83 and goes at 7/2 — very close in both rating and price to the top pick, making this a horse that could easily flip the result in this competitive maiden field. Trainer Vann E. Haywood puts Bobby Ransom aboard, and the 7/2 morning line reflects genuine market respect for this runner. As an exacta play alongside Blues Leavingyou, Rose Night offers a compelling price with legitimate rating support.

show8PrincesterML 9/2

Princester rates at 54.17 and draws 9/2 on the morning line, sitting third in our ratings and third in morning line order — a tight alignment that we don't always see. Trainer Juan M. Montoya, Jr. gives the call to Noe Castaneda, a jockey active throughout this card. The narrow gap between our top three picks here — 58.33, 55.83, 54.17 — means any of them could realistically hit the board, and Princester at 9/2 is the logical trifecta anchor.

Race 9

2:35 AM EDT

Futurity · 330 yd · Dirt

The nightcap is a Futurity — the most prestigious race on the card — and Mc Blue Cartel is an odds-on juggernaut with a 90 TrackWiz rating and a 100% career win rate, but several longshots in this field also boast perfect records, adding legitimate intrigue to the supporting spots.

win3Mc Blue CartelML 3/5

Mc Blue Cartel is simply in a class of its own here — a 90 TrackWiz rating, a 100% career win rate, and a 3/5 morning line that says everything you need to know about the connections' confidence. Trainer Josue Ponce sends this one with Jorge Javier Garcia up in what looks like a coronation rather than a contest on paper. In Futurity company, being this dominant on both metrics is rare, and while favorites can always get beat in short sprints, fading a 90-rated, undefeated horse in a Futurity is a tough sell.

place7Mucho Man ShortstopML 8/1

Mucho Man Shortstop rates at 51.45 with a 33% career win rate and goes off at 8/1 on the morning line — the best combination of rating, experience, and price among the supporting cast. Trainer Ricardo D. Romero gives the mount to Rodrigo Sigala Vallejo, and a horse that has won a third of its starts is no fluke. Behind an odds-on favorite, the place and show spots are where the exotic value lives, and Mucho Man Shortstop's solid win percentage makes this a logical exacta partner.

show5GoldaintyourcolourML 8/1

Goldaintyourcolour also carries a 100% career win rate and goes at 8/1, making this one of the more intriguing trifecta plays on the card. Trainer Phillip Calais, Jr. and jockey Randy Edison Jr. team up on a horse that has been undefeated in its career, though the 48.33 TrackWiz rating trails our top two picks notably. The undefeated record combined with an 8/1 price makes this worth including in exotic wagers — perfect records in Futurities sometimes carry a horse further than raw ratings suggest.

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Delta Downs is serving up a sharp nine-race card today, and the value is spread across the whole afternoon. Free readers have three strong starting points in Br Famous Jet, Valiant Heart Z, and Hez Toasted. The real fireworks come in the Stakes and the Futurity — and our full analysis on those, plus every premium race in between, is waiting for subscribers. Good luck at the windows today.

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