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Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

July 25, 20269 racesAll Delaware Park picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Delaware Park — clear skies, 78 degrees, and nine races on the board. Conditions don't get much cleaner than this for a mid-summer card, and a firm turf course should reward horses that want to run on top of the ground rather than through it.

The day spans a nice mix of conditions: a couple of maiden events to kick things off, a handful of claiming and optional claiming contests to fill the middle, and a turf stakes race in Race 8 to serve as the afternoon's marquee event. Five dirt races and four turf races means you'll want to stay sharp as the surface flips throughout the card.

TrackWiz has combed through the full nine-race card and identified standouts from top to bottom — including a pair of value angles that the morning line hasn't properly accounted for. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A classic claiming mile where the morning-line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — Russian Hammer looms as a big price overlay in a field that's closer than the odds suggest.

win6Russian HammerML 6/1

Russian Hammer carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71, a significant edge over every rival despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line. Sara Hess gets the call, and that rating gap is hard to ignore in a claiming mile on the dirt. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive at this level, and when our model this strongly separates one horse from a field, it tends to be a meaningful signal. At 6/1, this is exactly the kind of overlay that makes claiming races worth playing.

place3Secret TreasureML 2/1

Secret Treasure is the public's choice at 2/1 morning line, and the 73.11 TrackWiz rating backs up the confidence — it's second best in the field. Wesley Ho is in the irons for trainer Michelle Castillo, and the 53 average speed figure ties for the top mark alongside Russian Hammer. If the top pick runs into any trouble, Secret Treasure figures to be right there picking up the pieces.

show5Heat AlertML 8/1

Heat Alert at 8/1 is a legitimate show-price overlay with the third-best rating in the field at 56.01. Trainer Josue Arce's runner also boasts a 17% career win rate — the highest among all seven starters — which tells you this horse knows how to find the winner's circle. In a claiming mile where pace can get messy, a horse with that kind of winning habit is worth a ticket in your exotics.

Race 2

4:52 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs where every horse is still looking for their first win — but Cap'n Cats comes in with a TrackWiz rating nearly 25 points clear of most rivals, making this far from a coin flip.

win6Cap'n CatsML 6/1

Cap'n Cats owns a massive 82.71 TrackWiz rating in a field where the next-best score is 57.50 — that's a dominant edge in a maiden field. Abner Adorno rides for trainer Josue Arce, who also saddled Heat Alert in Race 1, suggesting a barn that's active and engaged on this card. The 53 average speed figure is solid for a maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs, and the 6/1 morning line represents real value given how far ahead this horse grades out. In maiden races, rating separation this wide is hard to fade.

place4SavvyliciousML 5/2

Savvylicious is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with a 57.50 rating — second best in the field — under Angel Cruz for trainer Michael L. Catalano, Jr. The 52 average speed figure is a touch below the top contenders, but public support and trainer pedigree suggest connections like what they're seeing in the mornings. A solid place ticket candidate who should be competitive for the minor awards at minimum.

show1America's PointML 9/2

America's Point at 9/2 holds a 54.17 rating and a 54 average speed figure — among the better numbers in this maiden field. Julio A. Hernandez takes the mount for trainer McLean Robertson, and the combination of workmanlike speed figures and fair odds makes this horse an attractive show play. In maiden claimers, depth at the top matters, and America's Point fits snugly into the third slot of this exotic.

Race 3

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

Five furlongs on the turf for maidens — Pure Octane's sky-high TrackWiz rating sets the horse apart, but this grass sprint has enough unknowns to keep the exotic prices lively.

win5Pure OctaneML 4/1

Pure Octane posts an 85.62 TrackWiz rating in this field — the best by a notable margin — and goes at a fair 4/1 on the morning line. Julio A. Hernandez gets the call for the Robertson barn, which also fields Orange Road in this same race, signaling the trainer has solid options and likely prefers Pure Octane as his main chance. The 52 average speed figure is the lowest among the main contenders, but on a short 5-furlong turf sprint, early tactical speed and rating often trump raw figures. When a horse grades out this far ahead in a maiden turf race, it's hard to argue with the model.

place7WholelotoftroubleML 8/1

Wholelotoftrouble at 8/1 is a genuine value play for the place slot, carrying a 59.98 rating — third best in the field — with a 54 average speed figure that matches the top of the class. Emanuel Rosario takes the mount for trainer Carlos E. Caban, and if the pace gets honest early on this short turf course, a horse with above-average figures could close into a share. At those odds, the place payoff alone makes this worth stacking in your exotics.

show8MysteriosoML 5/2

Mysterioso enters as the second betting choice at 5/2 with a 57.50 rating and the highest average speed figure in the field at 55. Vincent Cheminaud is a capable turf pilot, and trainer Cathal A. Lynch has a good eye for placing horses on the grass. The public price suggests respect, and the raw speed makes this a logical show anchor — just don't let the 5/2 morningline trick you into thinking a short-priced show ticket is automatically bad value here.

The first three races are unlocked for every reader, and there's real meat here. We open on the dirt with Russian Hammer (6/1 ML) in the one-mile claiming opener — a price worth circling given our rating of 82.71 on a horse that should appreciate stretching out. In Race 2, Cap'n Cats gets the nod in the 5½-furlong maiden claimer, posting an identical TrackWiz rating to Russian Hammer but in a field our model likes even more at the price. Then it's over to the turf in Race 3, where Pure Octane lands as our top pick in the Maiden Special Weight at 4/1 — the highest rating of the free trio at 85.62, and a horse who should relish these firm conditions on a sunny afternoon at Delaware.

A common thread through the free picks: all three are priced at or above their morning line fair value, and the clean, fast conditions today favor horses with tactical speed. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets in the early going.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This is a premium race — locked behind TrackWiz's full analysis — and it's a full field of 11 in a claiming mile that features a dominant top rating but some sneaky live longshots at big prices.

win1So SoML 5/2

So So is the standout here with an 84.78 TrackWiz rating — the highest in a competitive 11-horse field — and goes at a reasonable 5/2 morning line. Wesley Ho takes the mount for trainer Michelle Castillo, who also has Tall Cotton in the race, showing the barn is rolling with confidence. A 52 average speed figure is solid for this level, and the 7% career win rate understates how well this horse has been running in recent patterns our model has detected. When the top rating is also the second betting choice, you have a horse the public respects and the data loves.

place4It a LeeML 12/1

It a Lee is our value standout for the place, posting a 73.96 rating at a generous 12/1 on the morning line — that's a significant overlay. A 14% career win rate is legitimately strong for a claimer of this type, and Angel Cruz aboard for trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter gives this horse a live shot. A 52 average speed figure is right in the mix, and when a horse with this kind of rating history is dismissed by the public at 12/1, the place payoff can be substantial.

show6Guard of HonourML 8/1

Guard of Honour rates third-best in the field at 71.45 and slots in at 8/1, making the show ticket a compelling exotic piece. Ronaldo Rodriguez rides for trainer Martin Hinckson, and while the 2% career win rate and 51 average speed figure aren't flashy, the TrackWiz model sees something here the morning line is undervaluing. In a full 11-horse field, pace scenarios become unpredictable and horses with solid ratings frequently hit the board at odds that reward patience.

Race 5

6:28 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

A starter optional claimer going a mile and 70 yards on the turf — Racey Ruby's elite rating and eye-catching win percentage make her the class of the field, but Tour Jete and Unbounded Movement can make this interesting.

win8Racey RubyML 2/1

Racey Ruby is the standout pick of the card — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating paired with a 31% career win rate is a combination you don't see often. Angel Cruz rides for Michael L. Catalano, Jr., a trainer who knows how to spot a class spot, and the 54 average speed figure puts Racey Ruby at the top of the field on raw numbers too. At 2/1, this is a horse the public and the model agree on — and at this distance on turf, a closer with that kind of winning habit is a tough beat.

place4Tour JeteML 3/1

Tour Jete grades out at 75.02 — second best in the race — with a 54 average speed figure and a 16% career win rate that signals a consistent performer. Cipriano Gil is a reliable hand for trainer Fernando Abreu, and at 3/1 morning line, Tour Jete should be right in contention at the top of the stretch. If Racey Ruby gets any traffic or a wide trip on this turf route, Tour Jete is the most likely beneficiary.

show6Unbounded MovementML 8/1

Unbounded Movement at 8/1 represents a solid show-price overlay with a 67.27 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — and a 13% career win rate that's respectable for this type of race. Martin Chuan gets the call for trainer William Dowling, and the 52 average speed figure is in the ballpark for this turf route. At 8/1, the show price here could be generous, and in a nine-horse field with two standouts up top, this horse is a smart exotic piece.

Race 6

7:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The heavy favorite in Race 6 is NOT the top-rated horse — Party On Rufus has a commanding TrackWiz edge over the 8/5 morning-line choice, setting up a juicy overlay scenario in this 5½-furlong dirt sprint.

win4Party On RufusML 8/1

Party On Rufus posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79 despite going off at 8/1 — that's a significant disconnect from the public prices. Ronaldo Rodriguez rides for Juan Bacallao Vega, and while a 5% career win rate is modest, the model's rating reflects recent form cycles that the raw win percentage doesn't capture. A 53 average speed figure is competitive in this sprint, and in a race where the 8/5 favorite Good Willie only rates 66.93, the top-rated horse at 8/1 is where smart money should be pointing.

place7SpuriousML 8/1

Spurious at 8/1 rates second in the field at 72.83, splitting the difference between Party On Rufus and the more-fancied horses. Sara Hess takes the mount for trainer Mario Roberto Lopez, and the 53 average speed figure puts Spurious right in the thick of the speed battle at 5½ furlongs. In a sprint with pace likely to be contested, a horse with these figures and this kind of rating at 8/1 is exactly the kind of value place play that pays well in exotics.

show5Kitty's SonML 4/1

Kitty's Son at 4/1 is the third-best rated horse in this race at 70.21 — and notably, that's a stronger rating than the 8/5 morning-line favorite. Emanuel Rosario aboard for trainer Jose Corrales gives this horse a quality pilot in a sprint, and the 53 average speed figure is consistent with the top contenders. The public is underrating this horse relative to the morning line, making the show price attractive for anyone building exacta and trifecta tickets around the top picks.

Race 7

7:32 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Race 7 is a two-horse battle at the top — For the Ladies and Pinky Swear have ratings that dwarf the rest of this six-horse field, but a massive longshot angle lurks at 12/1.

win4For the LadiesML 7/5

For the Ladies leads the card with the highest single-race TrackWiz rating of the day at 89.42, and the 7/5 morning line reflects how dominant this horse looks on paper. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is a respected conditioner for this type of race, and Jose A. Batista takes the mount on a horse with a 20% career win rate — solid production at this level. A 54 average speed figure matches the top competitors, and at 5½ furlongs on the dirt, a horse with this kind of rating separation is nearly impossible to fade as a win selection.

place5Pinky SwearML 2/1

Pinky Swear is the real firepower in this race — an 86.30 TrackWiz rating and an eye-popping 33% career win rate make this horse an elite performer who just happens to be going up against the top-rated runner on the card. Tais Lyapustina rides for Hamilton A. Smith, and at 2/1, Pinky Swear is the most logical play for anyone who doesn't want to back the chalk. A 53 average speed figure is competitive, and in any race where For the Ladies has an off trip, Pinky Swear is first in line.

show1Code Name WillowML 12/1

Code Name Willow at 12/1 is a legitimate longshot show play with a 62.77 TrackWiz rating — well ahead of the other horses in the bottom half of this field. A 16% career win rate is respectable, and trainer Jaclyn Reed has quietly put up results at Delaware Park this meet. In a six-horse field where the top two are well above the rest, Code Name Willow's 52 average speed figure and above-average rating make this horse the clear third choice on the TrackWiz model — and the 12/1 price makes the show ticket a smart value add in trifecta boxes.

Race 8

8:04 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The stakes race on turf at 7½ furlongs brings out a fascinating collection of winners — Sassafrassness carries a stunning 50% career win rate and the top TrackWiz rating, making this horse an overlay at 8/1 against a morning-line favorite that our model doesn't fully endorse.

win4SassafrassnessML 8/1

Sassafrassness is our stakes pick and the top-rated horse in this field at 76.40, with a 50% career win rate that is simply extraordinary for any level of racing. Martin Chuan rides for trainer Jamie Ness, and a 55 average speed figure puts this horse at the top of the class on raw numbers too. The 8/1 morning line feels like a significant underestimate — the public may be gravitating toward Sophie's Cruiser at 8/5, but our model sees Sassafrassness as the most complete horse in this field. In a stakes race, when the highest-rated horse also wins half its starts, that's a compelling case.

place2Golden Eib MicrphnML 6/1

Golden Eib Micrphn at 6/1 is a 35% career winner — one of the elite win rates in this field — with a 73.92 TrackWiz rating that slots in comfortably behind Sassafrassness. Jevian Toledo is a skilled turf jockey for trainer Jonathan Maldonado, and this horse's profile screams value in a race where the morning-line favorite is rated well below our top choice. A 52 average speed figure is the one potential concern at 7½ furlongs, but the career winning percentage suggests a horse that finds ways to perform when it matters.

show1J CandyML 15/1

J Candy at 15/1 is the longshot worth a look in your trifecta tickets — a 20% career win rate and a 69.58 TrackWiz rating make this horse one of the most underrated in the field on paper. Paul A. Luna takes the mount for trainer Jose S. Rodriguez, and a 54 average speed figure is right in the competitive zone for this stakes turf sprint. At 15/1, the show price on J Candy could be a payoff multiplier in a race where the top two picks might separate themselves — locking in this horse at the bottom of your ticket is a sensible play.

Race 9

8:36 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Closing out the card, another maiden claiming sprint where every horse is winless — but Molly the Cat's dominant 87.81 TrackWiz rating makes this one of the clearest top picks of the entire day.

win6Molly the CatML 5/2

Molly the Cat posts an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the second-highest of any horse on today's card — in a maiden field where the next-best score is 72.85. Angel Cruz is one of the sharpest riders in the jock colony and takes the mount for trainer McLean Robertson, who has been active and confident with entries all day. A 54 average speed figure ties for the best in this field, and at 5/2 morning line, this horse is actually a fair price given how far ahead the model has her. Maiden claimers are volatile, but when the rating gap is this wide, the signal is hard to ignore.

place4Dina's TouchML 7/2

Dina's Touch at 7/2 is the clear second choice on our model at 72.85 — a comfortable advantage over the rest of the field behind Molly the Cat. Wesley Ho gets the call for trainer Jose S. Rodriguez, and the 54 average speed figure is right at the top of the group. If Molly the Cat encounters any trouble from the rail draw, Dina's Touch figures to be first on the scene — and at 7/2, the place payoff here makes for a solid consolation in any exotic ticket.

show3Shes the Tall OneML 9/2

Shes the Tall One at 9/2 holds a 54.17 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure — both competitive for a maiden claiming sprint. Emanuel Rosario takes the mount for trainer Cathal A. Lynch, who has shown a knack for placing maiden types wisely throughout this card. With several unknown quantities in this field — including horses with no recorded average speed — a horse with a clean rating and a known form profile is a logical show anchor to close out the night.

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Delaware Park has a clean, fast card ahead of it on a gorgeous July afternoon. Russian Hammer, Cap'n Cats, and Pure Octane headline the free picks, and all three offer legitimate value at their morning line odds. The real fireworks are in the premium races — especially that 8/1 shot in the stakes and the pace-driven angles in the optional claimers. Full card analysis, exotic ticket breakdowns, and pace projections are all waiting for subscribers. Good luck today — bet smart, and let the card come to you.

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