Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026
It's a beautiful Thursday at Delaware Park — clear skies, 84°F, and a 9-race card that gives us plenty to work with. The turf course figures to be running firm under these conditions, which is great news for horses with proven grass form, and the dirt looks fast and fair all day long.
The card spans maidens to allowances, with a nice mix of sprints and routes on both surfaces. Three of today's races are highlighted as our free best bets, giving everyone a taste of TrackWiz analysis before the full card unlocks for subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt
A maiden claimer full of first-timers and lightly raced types makes this opener tricky to unpack, but one horse stands clearly above the field on TrackWiz ratings.
Siena Belle (#5) checks in as the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 59.33 — a meaningful edge over the competition. Trained by George Weaver, who consistently sends his debut runners ready to fire, this filly figures to be forwardly placed from the gate in a short 5-furlong sprint. With several rivals either unrated or posting minimal speed figures, Siena Belle's numbers suggest she's operating in a different tier entirely. Lay the modest chalk here and move on.
Great Destiny (#1) posts an average speed figure of 55 — one of only two horses in this field with any published speed data — and comes in at a workable 7/2 on the morning line. Trainer Nesvil Hernan Bailon also saddles First Blush in this spot, suggesting stable confidence in the barn's runners today. At that price, Great Destiny looks like a solid ticket-saver underneath the favorite in exactas and quinellas.
Maxie's Munny (#2) draws attention as one of three horses sharing a 51.67 TrackWiz rating and goes postward at 6/1. Trainer Daniel G. Eubanks runs a pair in this field, which can sometimes indicate a stable with inside knowledge about which horse is peaking. Kevin Gomez in the irons adds a competent hand, and at 6/1 in a wide-open maiden field, a show ticket here has real value as a safety net in exotic wagers.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
The top of this maiden special weight is tightly bunched on ratings, setting up a fascinating three-way battle at the top while the rest of the field tries to keep up.
No No Milo (#1) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.67 and draws the rail in a field of first-time starters, which is a cleaner scenario than it might sound at 5.5 furlongs where the gate position is less punishing. Trainer Edward T. Allard is a steady presence at Delaware Park, and Carol Cedeno in the irons gives this entry a polished, experienced hand from the break. The morning line of 9/5 reflects genuine market confidence — this one has been talked about, and our analysis backs it up.
Nazeer (#7) is the second-best rated horse in the field at 57.50 and draws the outside post, which at 5.5 furlongs on dirt can actually work in a closer's favor — room to settle and find a clean run. Trainer Gregory D. Sacco knows how to have a first-starter ready, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market isn't sleeping on this one either. He's a natural underneath play if No No Milo gets the lead and is challenged late.
Sound Check (#6) slots in third on our ratings at 55.83 and goes as the third choice at 7/2 — a logical price for a horse in this position. Trainer Michael E. Gorham has the horse pointed at a competitive maiden special weight, which signals some belief in this horse's ability to hold its own. In a field where several runners have zero public speed data, Sound Check's rating suggests enough underlying form to hit the board.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf
A full, sprawling 14-horse maiden claimer on the turf — with field size this large and a wide range of ratings, the top two selections stand out dramatically while chaos lurks behind them.
Aqua Blaze (#7) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the entire field at 85.62 — a substantial margin over the second-best horse — and goes postward at a fair 4/1 off the morning line. Trained by Michael J. Trombetta, who has a strong record placing horses in the right spots at Delaware Park, this runner posted an average speed figure of 52 with room to grow. The turf at 7.5 furlongs sets up ideally for a horse with tactical pace, and Angel R. Rodriguez is a sharp booking for a horse the connections believe in.
Crab Mentality (#10) is no slouch either, rating 79.87 on our scale and posting an average speed figure of 55 — actually the highest in the field among horses with published numbers. Trainer Keri Brion excels on the grass at mid-Atlantic tracks, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this horse could easily reverse the order with a clean trip in a field this large. A natural exacta play with Aqua Blaze, and don't overlook the possibility Crab Mentality outright wins this.
Tiz Complex (#3) rates 71.99 — third-best in the field — and is the short morning-line price at 3/1, reflecting legitimate public support. Trainer Cathal A. Lynch has a knack for turf routing, and Julio A. Hernandez gives this horse a capable pilot in the two-turn setup at 7.5 furlongs. In a race this full, a horse rated this well is almost certain to hit the board, making Tiz Complex a key show wheel and a must-use in trifectas.
Our three free races cover a solid cross-section of today's card. In Race 1, maiden claimer Siena Belle draws our attention as the 7/5 morning-line favorite going 5 furlongs on dirt — she earns our top rating at 59.33 in what shapes up as a fairly open field. Race 2 steps up to maiden special weight company at 5½ furlongs, where No No Milo (9/5 ML) is the horse to beat. Then Race 3 shifts things to the turf for a 7½-furlong maiden claimer — and that's where the real standout sits.
Aqua Blaze catches the eye in a big way, carrying an 85.62 TrackWiz rating into Race 3 at a juicy 4/1 morning line. When a horse has that kind of rating gap over the field and the odds still reflect value, that's the kind of spot we circle. The firm turf under today's sunny conditions plays right into it.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: Aqua Blaze is the standout value among the free picks, and Glows in the Dark is our top-rated horse on the entire card. It's a clean, beautiful day at Delaware Park with surfaces that should reward horses that fit the conditions. Head over to your TrackWiz subscription — available at /pricing — to unlock the full Race 4 through Race 9 breakdown and get in on our exotic ticket strategies before post time.