Daily Picks

Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

Saturday, July 11, 20268 racesDelaware Park

It's a warm Saturday afternoon at Delaware Park — partly cloudy skies and 83°F mean the track crew will be happy, and so will the horses. Eight races are on tap today, and the card leans heavily on the dirt with a pair of turf spots injected mid-card to keep things interesting.

The mix of claiming races, starter allowances, and an allowance optional claimer in Race 7 gives us a nice spread of competition levels — which means pace scenarios and class dynamics are going to matter a lot today. This is exactly the kind of card where doing your homework separates a profitable afternoon from a frustrating one.

TrackWiz has rated all eight fields, and there are some genuine angles worth digging into — including a 10/1 morning-line shot in Race 3 that our model loves. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite gets little respect from our model — TrackWiz analysis flips the script and elevates two double-digit longshots above the chalk in this 6-furlong dirt claimer.

win5Kitty's SonML 9/5

Kitty's Son draws the 9/5 morning line for a reason, but our TrackWiz rating of 78.78 leads this field and backs that price up with substance. Running out of the five hole with Emanuel Rosario up, this horse matches the best average speed figure in the race (53) while posting a field-high rating. A 3% career win rate is modest, but the underlying numbers suggest this horse is consistently competitive and ready to break through in the right spot.

place4Party On RufusML 10/1

Party On Rufus is the genuine value play here — buried at 10/1 on the morning line, yet his TrackWiz rating of 76.88 is second-best in the field by a comfortable margin. Paul A. Luna picks up the mount and this horse also logs a 53 average speed figure. At those odds, he's a prime candidate to hit the board and pay handsomely in exactas.

show7MigratoryML 9/2

Migratory rounds out the ticket at 9/2 with a 68.14 TrackWiz rating, which slots him cleanly into third in this field on paper. Trainer Michael V. Simone sends him out with Marvin Fernandez aboard, and a 52 average speed figure keeps him in the mix in what looks like a pace-friendly scenario for closers.

Race 2

4:52 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sharon's Prince dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but with a wide-open supporting cast, the place and show slots offer some intriguing price plays.

win3Sharon's PrinceML 2/1

Sharon's Prince is the clear top selection here, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that is the best in this field by over 10 points — that's a significant margin. Paul A. Luna gets the call for trainer Robert T. Paterno, and the horse's 55 average speed figure ties for the field lead. Posted at 2/1 on the morning line, this isn't a big-price play, but the numbers validate the favoritism and make him a strong win bet.

place1Federal ExchangeML 8/5

Federal Exchange draws the 8/5 morning line but actually trails Sharon's Prince by 10 rating points in our model (78.45 vs. 88.54), which sets up a mismatch in perceived versus actual edge. Still, a 54 average speed figure and a top-two rating make him the logical place horse — Cipriano Gil keeps the ride for trainer Robert A. Werneth and this horse should be in the mix late.

show2Good News RocketML 9/2

Good News Rocket is the show fill at 9/2 with a 66.59 rating, and what stands out is his 10% career win rate — the second-best conversion figure in this five-horse field. Ajhari Williams pilots for Giovanni M. Salinas, and his 55 average speed figure matches the top two. At the price, he's a smart addition to exacta and trifecta tickets.

Race 3

5:24 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite in this 6-furlong dirt starter allowance is a single-digit price, but our best bet is a double-digit longshot who leads the field in TrackWiz ratings — a genuine upset alert.

win5Heard On ThestreetML 10/1

Heard On Thestreet goes postward at 10/1 despite carrying a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that tops this entire field — that's exactly the kind of disconnect we look for when building tickets. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser has Angel R. Rodriguez aboard, and a 21% career win rate signals a horse that knows how to find the winner's circle. In a starter allowance where pace scenarios can jumble the results, a horse with this profile at this price is worth a serious win bet.

place6Take a HintML 3/2

Take a Hint is the 3/2 morning line choice and posts a solid 69.66 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — with a 24% career win rate that's among the highest here. Trainer Gary Capuano also has Great Quality in the race, which speaks to his confidence in this barn's form. Jose E. Vargas gets the call, and the horse's 55 average speed figure gives him the back class to finish in the top two.

show3Band CampML 5/2

Band Camp checks in at 5/2 with a 59.54 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 36% — the highest conversion rate in this field by a significant margin. That 36% figure tells you this horse competes hard when he's right, and trainer Daniel G. Eubanks sends him out with Angel Cruz, a capable hand around Delaware Park. He belongs on every exotic ticket.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader today. Race 1 sends us right to the dirt at six furlongs, where Kitty's Son tops our ratings at 78.78 — a solid foundation to open the card. Race 2 steps up the competitive ceiling with Sharon's Prince posting the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 88.54, making him the strongest top pick you can access without a subscription. Keep an eye on him at 2/1 on the morning line — that's a number that could firm up fast.

The headliner of the free picks, though, is Race 3: a Starter Allowance at six furlongs where Heard On Thestreet comes in at 10/1 on the morning line but carries a TrackWiz rating of 76.88. That gap between public price and our model score is the kind of value angle casual bettors miss and sharp players love. On a warm, fast-biased dirt surface, a horse with hidden upside at double-digit odds is worth your full attention.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:56 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A starter allowance that sets up as a wide-open pace duel — the 9/5 morning line chalk is the weakest horse on our model, and the real value hides at 6/1.

win5TakemybourbonneatML 6/1

Takemybourbonneat is our top pick at 6/1 despite a 9/5 morning line favorite in the race — the TrackWiz model has him as the clear class of this field with an 82.71 rating. Angel Cruz climbs aboard for trainer Anthony Adamo, and a 27% career win rate is among the best in this group. His 55 average speed figure ties for the field lead, and at 6/1 he represents meaningful overlay value.

place3Foggy NoteML 6/1

Foggy Note is a quiet contender at 6/1 with a 68.1 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race — and trainer Kelly J. Breen has a strong reputation for placing horses correctly. Carol Cedeno picks up the mount, and a 55 average speed figure matches the top horses in this field. A 17% career win rate shows consistency, and the price makes him worth a spot in the exacta.

show2Dewey DoitML 5/2

Dewey Doit brings a 65.6 rating and draws the 5/2 line for trainer Jamie Ness, who also has Antonacci Girl in this race — a sign the barn is loaded in this spot. Emanuel Rosario is a reliable pilot, and a 54 average speed figure puts him just a tick below the top two. He's the logical show hedge and a key part of any trifecta combination.

Race 5

6:28 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full and competitive turf field at 1 1/16 miles with several well-matched contenders — the pace scenario on the lawn figures to set up for closers, with real price plays lurking in the middle of the order.

win13DistinctML 7/2

Distinct gets the TrackWiz top rating in this 13-horse turf field at 83.39 — a nose in front of a very talented group. Wesley Ho is in the irons for trainer Jose A. Gallegos, and a 25% career win rate gives him legitimate closing credentials. Posted at 7/2, he's the right price in a wide-open field — not prohibitively short, and the model gives him a clear edge over the morning line favorites.

place9AlrasikhML 6/1

Alrasikh is right on Distinct's heels with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and draws the 6/1 morning line, making him a significant overlay if the market hasn't caught up. Jose A. Batista rides for Victor Carrasco Jr., and an 11% career win rate on the lawn shows this horse can find the finish line. In a multi-horse turf field, hitting the board at 6/1 is exactly the kind of ticket-building scenario we target.

show10SpecialagentjonsonML 5/1

Specialagentjonson rates third on our model at 79.43 and goes off at 5/1 — another price worth including in exotics. Trainer William Downing sends him out with Angel R. Rodriguez, and an 8% career win rate reflects the difficulty of this level, not a lack of competitive edge. His 54 average speed figure ties for the field lead on raw pace numbers, which matters in a longer turf route where pace collapse is a real scenario.

Race 6

7:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Just Relax comes in as both the morning line chalk and the TrackWiz top-rated horse, setting up a relatively straightforward top sequence — the question is whether anyone can chase him down in the final furlong.

win7Just RelaxML 8/5

Just Relax is the dominant figure here with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse across the entire Saturday card. Trainer Michael V. Simone hands the reins to Angel Cruz, and a 31% career win rate is exceptional at any level, let alone a starter optional claiming field. The 8/5 morning line isn't generous, but when a horse has a 7-point rating cushion over his nearest rival and a win percentage this strong, you play the horse.

place3Plausible DenileML 3/1

Plausible Denile has the second-best rating in this race at 82.52 and draws the 3/1 morning line — a reasonable price for a horse this close to the top figure. Cipriano Gil rides for trainer Greg Compton, and his 55 average speed figure matches the field leaders on raw pace numbers. If anything disrupts Just Relax's trip, this one is right there to inherit the lead.

show2Triple PassML 9/2

Triple Pass slots into third on the TrackWiz model at 80.33 and goes postward at 9/2 with Carol Cedeno for trainer Johnny Collins. A 7% career win rate is modest, but his 55 average speed figure and the third-best rating in the field make him a legitimate show and exacta part. The price is attractive enough to sprinkle him underneath in trifectas.

Race 7

7:32 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Five furlongs on the turf is a sprint that favors horses with sharp speed and tactical ability — Gift of Gab leads our model in this allowance optional claiming field but faces a stacked and deep lineup.

win7Gift of GabML 5/2

Gift of Gab is our top selection with an 85.79 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure in this field at 58 — a meaningful edge in a 5-furlong turf sprint where gate-to-wire speed matters. Carol Cedeno rides for trainer Suzanne Stettinius, and a 25% career win rate shows this filly knows what to do when asked. Posted at 5/2, she's a fair favorite and our clear win selection.

place2Mischief MaxeyML 3/1

Mischief Maxey earns a strong 82.03 rating and draws the 3/1 morning line for Hall of Fame trainer John C. Servis — that combination deserves serious respect. Frankie Pennington gets the mount, and a 20% career win rate paired with a 56 average speed figure makes him a rock-solid place horse in a race where the top of the field is closely bunched.

show9River SeineML 8/1

River Seine is the show play here at 8/1, rating third in the field at 79.79 with an impressive 58 average speed figure that ties Gift of Gab for the field lead. Trainer Edward Maher sends her out with Sara Hess, and a 20% career win rate shows she can get the job done. At 8/1, she's a genuine price play in exacta and trifecta boxes.

Race 8

8:04 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming on the dirt is always unpredictable — nobody in this field has ever won a race, so TrackWiz ratings and speed figures do the heavy lifting in a wide-open 6-furlong dash.

win7Crazy MilesML 3/2

Crazy Miles draws the 3/2 morning line and backs it up with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 59.17 — a slim but meaningful edge in a maiden field. Cipriano Gil rides for Gregory D. Sacco, and a 54 average speed figure keeps him in the hunt on the front end. In maiden claiming, the horse with the best underlying numbers in the barn of a reliable conditioner is where we start, and this one checks all the boxes.

place1Hugs for AriesML 9/5

Hugs for Aries is right behind at a 58.67 rating — essentially a dead heat on paper with the top pick — and draws the 9/5 morning line with Jose A. Batista up for trainer Andrew L. Simoff. A 55 average speed figure is the best raw pace number in this maiden field, which gives him an edge if the race develops favorably. He's a strong place horse and worth singling on certain trifecta tickets.

show3Uncle ZebML 6/1

Uncle Zeb offers some show value at 6/1 with a 54.52 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — for trainer Juan Bacallao Vega with Paul A. Luna riding. In a maiden race where upsets and chaos are part of the territory, having a third wheel at 6/1 with a legitimate underlying rating gives your ticket a cushion. He's the right horse to round out the trifecta.

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Bottom line: Delaware Park is serving up a legitimate eight-race card today with value hiding in plain sight — especially that 10/1 shot in Race 3 and the pace-dependent turf spots mid-card. Sharon's Prince (R2) and Heard On Thestreet (R3) are the free-card plays to know, with Just Relax headlining the premium side as our top-rated horse of the day. Full analysis, pace maps, and exotic tickets are available to subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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