Del Mar Picks & Predictions — November 14, 2026
Best bets at Del Mar today
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Not So Merry Mary is our top play on the free Race 1 Maiden Special Weight — she ranks 3rd in recent race speed and her jockey has hit the board in 51% of starts over the past year, giving us real confidence at her 5/2 morning line. That's the headliner for everyone on today's card.
Conditions at Del Mar are about as good as it gets in November — 69°F and partly cloudy, which means a fast, consistent surface on the dirt and a true turf course that should reward horses who can carry their speed. Nine races are on the slate, with a healthy mix of maiden specials, claiming races, a stakes, and some allowance action spread across both surfaces.
What makes today interesting is the volume of turf content — four of nine races go on the grass — and a bona fide stakes showdown in Race 3 where Holmby is drawing serious attention at an odds-on 4/5 morning line. There's also a legit longshot angle in Race 9 worth watching. Plenty to dig into.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden sprint on the Del Mar dirt with five unproven runners showing in-the-money finishes and no clear pace scenario — top-rated Not So Merry Mary holds a narrow edge over Thirsty Eterna in what figures to be a competitive affair from bell to wire.
Not So Merry Mary earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 85.54 and leads all comers in our rating rankings. The Tim Yakteen-trained filly brings a 'A' trainer grade to the table and pairs with Kazushi Kimura, who has posted a 19% win rate and hit the board in 51% of starts over the past year. She's placed in two of her last two races, showing the kind of consistent form that stands out in a maiden field, and our 10,000-race simulations gave her a 27% win share — the best of anyone in this race.
Thirsty Eterna sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and owns the most impressive in-the-money record in the field — she's placed in all three of her career starts, including three for three on dirt. Her recent race speed clocked at 12.26 sec/furlong ranks second-best in the field, suggesting she's doing real work between the calls. At 6/1 on the morning line, she offers legitimate place value behind the slight favorite.
Princess Luna checks in third in the ratings at 68.26 and sports the fastest recent race speed of anyone in this field at 12.17 sec/furlong — a legitimately eye-catching number. She's placed in two of her last three and hit the board twice in three sprint starts. The concern is her workouts, which rank seventh among the field over the last month, so she may need the race to sharpen up, but her raw race-day speed makes her a reasonable exotic inclusion at 5/1.
We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:
- 3Not So Merry Mary27%
- 1Thirsty Eterna19%
- 5Princess Luna15%
Not So Merry Mary draws our eye in Race 1 for a few reasons beyond the obvious. Her recent pace numbers place her competitively in this maiden field, and when you pair that with a jockey who's won 19% of rides over the past year, you have a solid framework for a confident play at a price that offers real value — 5/2 isn't a gift, but it's fair for a horse with her profile. In maiden races, connections and work patterns matter enormously, and TrackWiz analysis gives her a 27.46% simulated win probability, meaningfully ahead of what her morning line implies.
The partly cloudy sky and mild temps mean the Del Mar dirt should be consistent from gate to wire — no moisture playing tricks on early speed or closers. That's worth keeping in mind as you assess pace scenarios throughout the card.
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Not So Merry Mary is the free play of the day in Race 1, and she's worth a confident look at 5/2. Beyond that, today's nine-race Del Mar card has genuine depth — a stakes race, four turf routes, and a couple of overlooked angles that could pay handsomely. The full breakdown, pace projections, and exotic strategies are waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.