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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — November 13, 2026

November 13, 20268 racesAll Del Mar picks

Best bets at Del Mar today

Race 13Et AlML 6/13:30 PM EST

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Et Al is our best bet on the free side of today's card — an unproven maiden drawing a jockey-trainer combo that has clicked at a 23% win rate and hit the board 50% of the time over the past year, all at a generous 6/1 morning line in Race 1's 6½-furlong Maiden Special Weight on dirt. That's real value hiding in plain sight to open the day.

Del Mar is running under partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 67°F — ideal conditions for a full eight-race Friday card that mixes maiden routes, claiming battles, and an Allowance Optional Claiming feature in Race 7. There's turf action sprinkled throughout (Races 3, 5, and 8), so surface versatility matters today.

The card has some genuine intrigue. Tessuto (Race 2) and Mio Bambino (Race 4) are both posting the fastest recent race speeds in their respective fields, and Piper's Causeway brings a 6-for-23 record on dirt into Race 7's allowance test. Plenty of angles to work — let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:30 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where the morning-line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — the TrackWiz model sees value at longer odds, and the Baffert-Hernandez combo looms as a major threat from post 6.

win3Et AlML 6/1

Et Al lands atop our ratings at 66.34 — the highest mark in the field — despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line, which is where the value is. The Jaramillo/O'Neill combo has clicked at a 23% win rate over the past year, and that partnership arriving with the top TrackWiz rating in a maiden is a signal worth respecting. Our 10,000 simulations gave Et Al a 19.66% share of wins, making it one of the more productive numbers in a first-time-starter-heavy field. With every horse listed as 'unproven' in terms of run style, pace shape is a true wildcard, but the numbers point here.

place1Ala SawabML 6/5

Ala Sawab (6/5) is the public's choice and draws the rail with Joel Rosario up — a jockey who's hit the board in 52% of races over the past year. The rating of 59.67 ranks second in the field and the workout rank of 2nd in the last month (11.88 sec/furlong) suggests physical readiness, though the recent race speed ranks only 5th at 20.23 sec/furlong, which is a note of caution. At short odds, the place spot feels like the right way to use this horse.

show6Bold TypeML 8/5

Bold Type is the one to keep onside for exotics. The Hernandez/Baffert combo has posted an eye-catching 38% win rate and 78% in-the-money rate over the past year — that's a tier-one stat in any field. Bold Type also leads this field in recent race speed (12.25 sec/furlong) and carries a 59.00 rating. At 8/5, the morning line reflects the public's awareness of the Baffert angle, so the show slot may be the most efficient way to get paid.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Bold Type27%
1Ala Sawab24%
3Et Al20%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 1 is the free look today, and Et Al is the play. The 6/1 morning line suggests the oddsmakers aren't sold, but our TrackWiz simulations put the win probability at nearly 20% — meaning there's a gap between public perception and what the numbers say. The jockey-trainer combo hitting the board half the time over the past year is exactly the kind of quiet, repeatable angle that pays off at a price. In a wide-open maiden field, that combination of live connections and undervalued odds is where the edge lives.

Maiden Special Weights can be unpredictable — inexperienced horses, unknown form — but when you have a proven human team steering the ship, it tilts the equation. Bet Et Al to win, and consider a small exacta saver underneath in case the field tightens up at the windows.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

4:01 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Tessuto enters as a heavy favorite with the top rating and best recent speed in the field, but Leyas Candy at 6/1 offers legitimate value and the pace scenario could set up an interesting late run.

win6TessutoML 7/5

Tessuto is the class of this claiming mile, sitting at a 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the top mark by a comfortable margin — and posting the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.07 sec/furlong. The dirt record is solid: placed in 12 of 17 starts on the surface. Our simulations gave Tessuto 32.84% of wins across 10,000 runs, more than double the next horse, which is a meaningful edge in a six-horse field. The main quibble is that the morning line at 7/5 compresses your return, but the numbers justify the favoritism.

place4Leyas CandyML 6/1

Leyas Candy at 6/1 is the value play here. A 78.62 rating ranks second in the field, and the in-the-money rate of 52% across a career with 6 wins in 34 dirt starts speaks to consistency. Edgar Payeras has hit the board in 54% of rides over the past year, and the recent race speed checks in third at 12.55 sec/furlong — competitive enough to stay in contention. Yes, she's 7 years old, but the form profile makes that concern manageable at this price.

show2Big JuanitoML 3/1

Big Juanito is the kind of horse that keeps show bettors happy. He's placed in his last three races and hit the board in 4 of his last 6, with 2 wins and 5 in-the-money finishes specifically at Del Mar — familiarity with the oval matters. The concern is age (6 years old) and a recent race speed that ranks last in the field, so he's not blowing by anyone. But in a claiming mile where pace can get honest, a consistent closer-type with Del Mar form should land somewhere in the exotics.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Tessuto33%
2Big Juanito20%
4Leyas Candy17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:32 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

Ocean Club enters this maiden turf sprint as a significant ratings standout, but the supporting cast at the top of the morning line gives the race enough intrigue to make the exacta interesting.

win6Ocean ClubML 5/2

Ocean Club is the clear top choice by our model, rated 84.35 — a full 18 points clear of the next horse — and backed by a jockey, Umberto Rispoli, who's hit the board in 65% of rides over the past year. The recent race speed ranks second in the field, the workout activity is sharp at 2nd in the last month (11.96 sec/furlong), and our sims put Ocean Club at 30.21% — leading all horses by a significant margin. The only real concern is a 0-for-2 record at Del Mar, but maiden form on this surface is thin by nature, and the overall profile is too strong to fade.

place4Jet E ZML 3/1

Jet E Z slots in at a 56.67 rating and draws post 4 with Joel Rosario, who's been in the money in 52% of races over the past year. There isn't a deep form line to dissect here — average speed data is listed as zero, which signals this is a horse without much of a racing record — but the Peter Miller barn has a B+ trainer grade and Rosario's presence keeps this horse relevant. At 3/1 on the morning line, the place slot is a reasonable landing spot in an exotic.

show3Gallant JackML 7/2

Gallant Jack brings the top workout mark in the field over the last month (11.75 sec/furlong) and pairs it with Juan J. Hernandez, who has won 27% of his races and hit the board in 64% over the past year. The Hernandez/Sadler team is a respected combination at this level, and a 55.83 rating ranks third. The concern is a no-show in the last start, but workout readiness argues for a bounce-back effort — keep onside in the trifecta.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Ocean Club30%
3Gallant Jack17%
4Jet E Z16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

5:04 PM EST

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Mio Bambino looks like the class of a wide-open claiming sprint, but a dramatic claiming price jump for Ballyhooligan and a price imbalance between the top two rated horses make this card worth playing exotics.

win7Mio BambinoML 8/5

Mio Bambino tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 — 20 points clear of the next horse — and leads the field in recent race speed at 12.07 sec/furlong. Joel Rosario in the irons adds an A- jockey grade, and the dirt record of 1 win with 7 in-the-money finishes in 13 starts shows this horse competes consistently on the surface. Our simulations gave Mio Bambino 33.54% of wins, the strongest single-horse number on today's card to this point. The workout rank is a mild concern at 6th (12.10 sec/furlong), but the speed and ratings profile is simply too strong to look past.

place2Bowtie BoysML 7/2

Bowtie Boys at 7/2 is the logical follow-up at 68.81 rating, ranking second in the field. The in-the-money percentage of 52% is solid, backed by 2 wins and 9 in-the-money efforts in 16 dirt starts, plus a 2-for-3 at the 6½-furlong distance. Kazushi Kimura carries a strong A jockey grade and has been in the money in 51% of rides. The concern is a claiming price bump from $12,500 to $16,000, which is worth noting, but the distance affinity offsets that flag nicely.

show6Lead Pipe JoeML 8/1

Lead Pipe Joe at 8/1 is worth a trifecta look. A 63.77 rating ranks third, the recent race speed checks in third as well (12.28 sec/furlong), and Manuel Americano has posted a 24% win rate and 60% in-the-money over the past year. The claiming price jumped from $8,000 to $16,000, which is the biggest concern on the page and worth acknowledging honestly — but if the connections feel this horse has earned a step up, it can't be dismissed entirely in a wide-open sprint.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Mio Bambino34%
2Bowtie Boys18%
6Lead Pipe Joe12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

5:35 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A tricky starter optional claiming turf sprint with two horses returning from extended layoffs and a ratings standout in Sirnami who's flown a bit under the radar at 8/1.

win3SirnamiML 8/1

Sirnami is our top-rated horse at 79.79 and yet goes off at 8/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of ratings-versus-odds discrepancy TrackWiz analysis is built to find. The recent form is genuine: in the money in 4 of the last 6 races and a 3-race in-the-money streak coming in. Recent race speed ranks third in the field at 11.62 sec/furlong, which is competitive for a 5-furlong turf dash. Our sims gave Sirnami 18.36% of wins — right in the thick of it — and at 8/1, that's outstanding value.

place5Artic PowerML 4/1

Artic Power at 4/1 earns a 65.38 rating and pairs with Umberto Rispoli, who's hit the board in 65% of races over the past year — one of the better in-the-money rates among jockeys on today's card. The 25% career win rate is solid for a claiming horse, and Philip D'Amato's A- trainer grade gives confidence. The layoff (298 days) is a flag, and our data notes the connections may just be using this as a tightener, but D'Amato typically has horses fit enough to run well off a freshening.

show7Legal HeirML 3/1

Legal Heir has the best recent race speed in the field — tied for first at 11.58 sec/furlong — and brings 1 win with 5 in-the-money finishes in 9 turf starts, which is a legitimate surface record. Joel Rosario's presence always adds floor to a price. The concern is a no-show streak in the last 3 races and a 1-for-4 record at Del Mar specifically. At 3/1, the show slot reflects the form cycle honestly — this feels like a horse due for a bounce-back.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Artic Power19%
4Tees Touch19%
3Sirnami18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

6:05 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep 12-horse maiden claiming mile on dirt — one of the trickier puzzles on the card — where He's Got Fire leads the ratings by a wide margin and Lucky Sniper quietly brings the best recent form cycle.

win1He's Got FireML 5/2

He's Got Fire sits atop our ratings at 87.81, leading this 12-horse field by over 14 points, and backs that up with the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.23 sec/furlong. Joel Rosario in the irons, an A- jockey grade, and 4 in-the-money finishes in 7 dirt starts paint a picture of a horse that belongs near the top of maiden claiming company. Our simulations gave He's Got Fire 25.67% of wins across 10,000 runs — easily the most of any horse in the field. At 5/2, the morning line is fair for what amounts to a clear class and speed standout.

place6Lucky SniperML 3/1

Lucky Sniper at 3/1 brings something none of the other contenders can match: a 3-for-4 in-the-money record at the one-mile distance specifically. Three in-the-money finishes in the last five races shows active, consistent form, and that 60% in-the-money career rate is real. The workout rank is a concern at 10th (12.40 sec/furlong), and the recent race speed isn't listed in the top tier, but the distance pedigree and form cycle make this a compelling exacta play.

show11Duke of OrleansML 5/1

Duke of Orleans at 5/1 brings a significant angle: a claiming price drop from $50,000 to $12,500 is an enormous class descent that the TrackWiz model flagged. When a horse tumbles that far down the claiming ladder, there's often a fitness or form issue behind it — but if connections are ready to run, that level of class relief can produce a big effort. Manuel Americano has a 24% win rate and 60% in-the-money over the past year, and the 65.65 rating ranks third in the field. Worth including in the trifecta.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

1He's Got Fire26%
6Lucky Sniper16%
11Duke of Orleans11%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

6:35 PM EST

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming mile that sets up as a three-horse battle at the top — Piper's Causeway, Sogno Di Vino, and Majestic Palisades are separated by just 4 points in TrackWiz ratings, and any of the three could win.

win3Piper's CausewayML 5/1

Piper's Causeway leads our model at 84.17 and brings the most impressive dirt résumé in the field: 6 wins and 20 in-the-money finishes in just 23 dirt starts is an extraordinary surface consistency rate. The fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.84 sec/furlong confirms current fitness, and an in-the-money rate of 62% over the career is elite for this level. Our sims gave Piper's Causeway 21.33% of wins. The concern is a 1-for-5 record at Del Mar and the age (6 years old), but the form cycle coming in — in the money last two starts — argues the tank isn't empty yet.

place5Sogno Di VinoML 5/2

Sogno Di Vino is the most interesting play in the race at 5/2. The 83.72 rating sits just behind Piper's Causeway, and Joel Rosario taking the mount is never an accident at this class level. Two in-the-money finishes coming in and a 25% career win rate show there's real ability here. The concern is genuine — only 1 hit in 5 dirt starts and 1 in 4 at Del Mar — but our sims actually put Sogno Di Vino at 26.08%, the top number in the field, suggesting the model likes the upside even if the dirt form has been inconsistent.

show4Majestic PalisadesML 2/1

Majestic Palisades at 2/1 is the public's second choice and has legitimate credentials: 3 wins and 14 in-the-money finishes in 28 dirt starts, plus multiple wins at today's surface/distance combination. Juan J. Hernandez riding adds a 27% win rate and 64% in-the-money mark from the irons. The flag here is a short rest of only 14 days when this horse performs better with 30 or more days between starts — that's a real pattern worth noting and may be why the sims put this one slightly lower at 23.84%. In the show slot of a trifecta, it's a solid inclusion.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Sogno Di Vino26%
4Majestic Palisades24%
3Piper's Causeway21%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

7:05 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A turf maiden claiming mile with a scratched horse thinning the field — Velvet Reign sits atop the ratings but Chair's Coin and Silkie Sevei offer legitimate competition and some overlay potential.

win1Velvet ReignML 6/1

Velvet Reign tops our ratings at 82.71 — the highest mark in this field — and pairs that with an impressive 75% in-the-money rate, the best career figure among active entrants. The Jaramillo/O'Neill combination has posted a 23% win rate and 50% in-the-money over the past year, which is a productive partnership. Our simulations gave Velvet Reign 22.47% of wins, again the top number in the field. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay potential for a horse that ranks first across multiple key metrics.

place3Chair's CoinML 9/2

Chair's Coin at 9/2 earns a 66.06 rating — second in the field — and brings the most applicable distance form: 2 in-the-money finishes in 3 starts at a mile and 2 in-the-money in 4 turf starts. That's the kind of surface and distance specificity that matters in a maiden turf mile. Hector Isaac Berrios has hit the board in 55% of his rides over the past year, and the Michael McCarthy barn's B trainer grade is solid. At 9/2, this is a realistic chance to land in the money.

show6Silkie SeveiML 5/1

Silkie Sevei at 5/1 brings an underrated angle: 2 for 2 in the money at Del Mar specifically, which is as good as a local record gets in a small sample. Juan J. Hernandez at 27% wins and 64% in-the-money rates from the saddle is among the best riding statistics on today's card. The concern is a 35-day layoff when this horse historically prefers shorter rest — the data flags a significantly lower WPS rate on 30-plus days of rest. That gap in performance is real, but the Del Mar form and rider quality keep this one in the exotic mix.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Velvet Reign22%
3Chair's Coin17%
6Silkie Sevei15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line for today at Del Mar: Et Al in Race 1 is the free best bet — a 6/1 morning line underlier backed by a sharp jockey-trainer combo. Beyond that, Tessuto, Mio Bambino, and Piper's Causeway headline a premium card with legitimate speed figures and strong surface records to anchor your tickets. Full pace analysis, exotic strategies, and every race breakdown are available to subscribers — don't go in blind on a card this loaded.

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