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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — November 8, 2026

November 8, 20269 racesAll Del Mar picks

Best bets at Del Mar today

Race 16Lady RuthML 6/53:30 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 7 races are for members.

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Lady Ruth in Race 1 is the play to open the card — she tops our TrackWiz ratings at 89.71 and clocks the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.56 sec/furlong, giving her a clear edge in this mile Claiming opener on dirt. Our simulations have her winning at nearly 34%, well ahead of the morning line's implied probability at 6/5.

It's a beautiful November Sunday at Del Mar — clear skies, 81°F, and fast conditions underfoot. Nine races spread across dirt and turf give you plenty of angles to work with, from a maiden special weight on the turf in Race 7 to what shapes up as the card's marquee event: a Stakes race at 7 furlongs on dirt in Race 8 with Grand Slam Smile drawing serious attention at even money.

The mix of surfaces today is worth noting — five of the nine races go on turf, so reading how the going plays early will be key. We'll be watching the first couple of turf races closely for any bias that could influence our exotics strategy later in the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:30 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The opener looks like a two-horse battle between the morning-line favorite and the second choice, with a significant rating gap separating the top pair from the rest of the field — but all six entrants are stepping up in claiming price from $12,500 to $20,000, so take the figures with a grain of salt.

win6Lady RuthML 6/5

Lady Ruth tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.71 — the highest mark in the field — and backs it up with the fastest recent race speed among the entrants at 12.56 sec/furlong. Joel Rosario in the irons is a major plus: he's logged a 19% win rate and hit the board in 52% of races over the past year, and Lady Ruth has gone 1-for-7 on dirt with five additional placings, giving her a 62% in-the-money rate overall. Our simulations had her winning 34% of 10,000 runs, which aligns nicely with her 6/5 morning line. The one flag worth noting is that her workout times rank only fourth in this group, but her race-day figures more than compensate.

place2Good Golly DollyML 2/1

Good Golly Dolly is the second-highest-rated horse in the field at 86.78 and owns solid recent form — she's hit the board in each of her last three races. Ricardo Gonzalez (A- grade) gives her a strong pilot, and she's placed in four of seven dirt starts, posting the third-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.79 sec/furlong. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's a logical piece to use underneath in exactas and trifectas.

show4Remember AprilML 8/1

Remember April checks in with a 65.38 TrackWiz rating (third in the field) and owns the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.58 sec/furlong — she's been competitive in the right spots. She's landed in the money in three of her last five races and boasts a 50% overall in-the-money rate, with four placings in seven dirt starts. Trainer Tim Yakteen (A grade) and jockey Welfin Orantes (A- grade) are quality connections, making her a sensible show bet and exotic fill at 8/1.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Lady Ruth34%
2Good Golly Dolly31%
1Sugar Reign13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

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Race 1 is your free look today, and Lady Ruth gives us plenty to like. The speed figure leads the field, the jockey has posted a 19% win rate and hit the board in over half of starts over the past year, and the TrackWiz rating is the highest of any top pick on the entire card at her odds tier. In a Claiming field on a fast dirt track, that combination of raw speed and in-form rider is exactly the kind of overlay we target.

If you're building a wagering plan around the free race, Lady Ruth is a strong single in multi-race sequences — the kind of horse you can use confidently in a Pick 3 or Pick 4 opener and spread elsewhere. That said, racing is never a sure thing, and at 6/5 the margin for error is thin if something catches her wide or the pace scenario scrambles.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

4:01 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt sprint where no horse has broken their maiden yet — the top two on TrackWiz ratings are separated by just over ten points, and the morning line favorite is actually ranked second in our model, setting up a potential upset scenario.

win1Smokem WickedML 7/2

Smokem Wicked holds the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and owns the fastest recent race speed among the field at 12.45 sec/furlong — that's a meaningful edge in a maiden claimer. He's been consistent without getting that elusive first win, hitting the board in four of his last six races and placing in four of eight dirt starts. TrackWiz simulations had him winning 27% of 10,000 runs. The main concern is that his workout times rank last in the field, so there could be a fitness question, but his race-day performance says he belongs.

place4Vern GosdinML 8/5

Vern Gosdin carries a 75.62 rating (second best) and his jockey Emisael Jaramillo has posted a 20% win rate and 47% in-the-money rate over the past year. He shows the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.68 sec/furlong, and while his in-the-money percentage at 33% isn't flashy, trainer Steve Knapp has an A- grade and knows how to place maiden claimers. At 8/5 on the morning line, he's a logical foil to our top pick.

show6Big IfML 3/1

Big If earns a 56.67 rating and stands out for a horse with no recorded average speed — this appears to be an entrant with limited race data, but his workout times rank second in the field at 12.10 sec/furlong, which suggests he's training sharply heading into this spot. Joel Rosario picks up the mount (19% win rate, 52% in-the-money), and trainer Tim Yakteen (A grade) is well worth following, particularly with fresh horses. At 3/1 morning line, he's worth a spot in trifectas.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Vern Gosdin29%
1Smokem Wicked27%
6Big If15%

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:32 PM EST

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Tiger of the Sea is a heavy favorite in this allowance optional claiming mile on the turf, posting the top TrackWiz rating and the fastest recent figures by a comfortable margin — the question is whether Kool Mariah's winning form and distance affinity can keep it honest.

win5Tiger of the SeaML 6/5

Tiger of the Sea is the class of this field with a 89.71 TrackWiz rating and, more tellingly, the fastest recent race speed at 11.57 sec/furlong — that's a clear gap over second-fastest (11.82). He's won 15% of his career starts and placed in 69% of his races, one of the highest in-the-money rates you'll see. Joel Rosario, who has a 19% win rate and 52% ITM over the past year, also owns a 19% win rate specifically on this horse — a combined jockey-horse dynamic that our model flagged as a positive angle. He topped 36% of our 10,000 simulations, the highest of any horse today.

place2Kool MariahML 7/2

Kool Mariah brings legitimate credentials to this spot: she won last time out on October 16th and has posted two wins while placing in all three starts at the one-mile distance — that's perfect distance form. Her 28% career win rate is strong, and trainer Ian Kruljac (A grade) is in great shape. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's a fair price to run second behind the favorite and belongs in exactas.

show3Dorie MillerML 6/1

Dorie Miller is a steady presence at 61.71 TrackWiz rating with a 51% career in-the-money rate and four placings in her last six races, suggesting she can be counted on to hit the board. Her workout times rank second in the field at 11.95 sec/furlong, and connections Armando Ayuso and Leonard Powell (both B+ grades) are solid. The only real concern is she's listed as older than the field average by 1.2 years, but her consistency makes her a worthy show inclusion at 6/1.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Tiger of the Sea36%
2Kool Mariah20%
6Midnight Cowgirl13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

5:03 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Cindys Beach House breaks from the rail as the TrackWiz top-rated horse in a wide-open maiden claimer over 5.5 furlongs — she's well-clear of the field on our ratings, though the fact that every single entrant is still searching for that first win keeps things unpredictable.

win1Cindys Beach HouseML 4/1

Cindys Beach House sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — a full 20 points clear of the second-ranked Kizazi — and she's shown she can run on this surface, placing in two of three dirt starts. Jockey Manuel Americano carries a 24% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate over the past year, which is excellent for this level. She's logged the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.37 sec/furlong, and our simulations gave her a 25% win share. Trainer Bill McLean is only a C grade, so the connections aren't elite, but the horse's numbers more than carry the argument.

place4KizaziML 5/1

Kizazi ranks second on our ratings at 65.78 and owns the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.35 sec/furlong — she's been getting there, just hasn't closed the deal yet. Kazushi Kimura (A- grade, 19% win rate, 51% ITM) gives her a live jockey, and her workout times rank second at 12.00 sec/furlong, suggesting she's training well. The concern is real — she hasn't placed in her last five — but speed figures and connections at 5/1 make her a value place bet.

show8Penny the JetML 5/2

Penny the Jet draws the outside post but brings Joel Rosario into the saddle, which is an automatic upgrade at any level. She's posted an average speed of 56 — the highest in this field — and while she hasn't placed in her last two, she's still the third-ranked horse on our ratings at 57.50. Peter Miller is a B+ trainer who does well in maiden situations, and at 5/2 morning line she won 17% of our simulations, making her a sensible exacta and trifecta fill.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Cindys Beach House25%
8Penny the Jet17%
4Kizazi15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

5:33 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Jennys Wine Girl headlines this turf claiming mile as the TrackWiz top-rated horse by a solid margin, but Rehearsal brings an elite jockey-trainer combination angle that could make the exacta very interesting at overlaid prices.

win6Jennys Wine GirlML 3/1

Jennys Wine Girl checks all the boxes: she's the top-rated horse in the field at 87.08, owns the fastest recent race speed at 11.94 sec/furlong, and has placed in two of three starts at Del Mar — home-court advantage matters. Juan Hernandez aboard is a major asset with a 26% win rate and 63% in-the-money rate over the past year. Our simulations gave her a 24% win share — clearly the field's standout. The lone concern is that her workout times rank last among the field, but her race figures say she's fit enough.

place3RehearsalML 5/2

Rehearsal is the second-ranked horse at 76.20 and brings a compelling connections angle — jockey Umberto Rispoli (24% win rate, 65% ITM) paired with trainer Philip D'Amato produces a 27% win rate and 73% in-the-money rate over the past year as a combo. She's placed in four of her last six races and owns a 60% career in-the-money rate. The age concern (1.3 years older than field average) is noted, but form horses don't just forget how to place.

show8Angelica BayML 8/1

Angelica Bay is the third-ranked horse at 68.18 and is backed by a strong surface record — she's won once and placed in six of eleven turf starts, showing she's a consistent turf performer. Kazushi Kimura (A- jockey) gives her a capable pilot, and her recent race speed of 12.08 sec/furlong ranks second in the field. At 8/1 morning line, she offers genuine value as a show bet and is a smart inclusion in turf trifectas.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Jennys Wine Girl24%
3Rehearsal21%
1Glory'z Clubhouse12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

6:03 PM EST

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Himari enters as a heavy favorite backed by one of the most powerful jockey-trainer combinations on the board, but Artisma is no pushover with a strong dirt record and a top-tier pilot of her own — this six-furlong allowance optional claimer could produce a sharp exacta.

win5HimariML 6/5

Himari is the class of the field with a 89.71 TrackWiz rating and the most intimidating connections angle in this preview: Juan Hernandez paired with Bob Baffert has produced a 38% win rate and 77% in-the-money rate over the past year — that's as strong a jockey-trainer stat as you'll find. She's won 33% of her career starts, hit the board in 66% of races, and owns the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.07 sec/furlong. Our simulations had her winning 35% of 10,000 runs. Hard to fade.

place3ArtismaML 8/5

Artisma is a deserving place pick — 82.43 TrackWiz rating (second in the field), a 70% career in-the-money rate, and she's placed in seven of ten dirt starts, which is exceptional consistency on the surface. Joel Rosario (19% win rate, 52% ITM) gives her a live shot to close the gap, and her recent race speed of 12.13 sec/furlong ranks third, suggesting she can keep up with the pace. At 8/5 on the morning line, she's a solid exacta saver.

show1Kinzlee'scharismaML 5/1

Kinzlee'scharisma earns the third slot with a 69.53 rating and genuine sprint credentials: she's posted one win and placed in five of six dirt starts, and her sprint record shows one win in eight starts with six in-the-money finishes. She's placed in four of her last six races, showing she hangs around late, and that consistency at 5/1 makes her a smart show bet and trifecta piece. Jockey Mike Smith (C+ grade) is the modest concern, but the horse's own form carries the argument.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Himari35%
3Artisma29%
1Kinzlee'scharisma15%

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Race 7

6:33 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Yep is the clear class standout in this maiden special weight on the turf — an 89.12 rating and a 100% in-the-money rate from prior starts — but Alghero brings the fastest recent race figures and legitimate credentials that could make the exacta rewarding.

win1YepML 8/5

Yep is as well-qualified as a maiden gets — the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12, a 100% in-the-money rate from prior starts, and the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.05 sec/furlong. The jockey-trainer connection of Rispoli and D'Amato has produced a 27% win rate and 73% in-the-money rate over the past year — this is a combo that shows up in the right spots with live horses. Our simulations gave Yep a 36% win share, the highest in today's card. The 8/5 morning line reflects the deserved respect.

place2AlgheroML 4/1

Alghero holds the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.85 sec/furlong — that's the number that gets your attention in a turf route. Joel Rosario takes the mount (19% win rate, 52% ITM), and Alghero has placed in three of four starts at medium distance, which is exactly the distance profile you want here at 1 1/16 miles. At 4/1 morning line, he's a fair price to finish right behind the favorite and a natural exacta partner.

show5PostmodernML 5/1

Postmodern is the third-ranked horse at 64.24 and carries consistent turf form — three placings in five turf starts and three in-the-money finishes in the last five races. Ricardo Gonzalez (A- jockey) gives him credible pilot, and his recent race speed of 12.09 sec/furlong ranks third in the field. The workout times are a concern (last in the field at 12.30 sec/furlong), but his race-day form on turf is the more relevant metric here. At 5/1, he rounds out a logical trifecta.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Yep36%
2Alghero20%
5Postmodern14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

7:03 PM EST

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

Grand Slam Smile enters this stakes at even money with a resume that's hard to argue with — a 54% career win rate, the top speed figures, and an elite jockey — but Big Hug's jaw-dropping 11-race in-the-money streak makes the exotics far more interesting than the win pool suggests.

win1Grand Slam SmileML EVN

Grand Slam Smile is the deserving favorite with the highest TrackWiz rating at 89.54 and the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.96 sec/furlong. The career numbers are exceptional — 54% win rate and a 90% in-the-money rate — and she's posted five wins in ten dirt starts with an overall record of 9-for-10 on the surface. Juan Hernandez (26% win rate, 63% ITM) is exactly the right pilot for a horse this sharp. Our simulations had her winning 33% of 10,000 runs, which lines up fairly with the even-money line.

place2Christel CleanML 5/1

Christel Clean is the second-ranked horse at 84.17 and her dirt record is spotless — two wins and four placings in just four starts on the surface. Joel Rosario (19% win rate, 52% ITM) and trainer John Sadler (A grade) form a formidable team, and her second-fastest recent race speed at 12.10 sec/furlong puts her right in the mix to finish close. At 5/1, she offers meaningful exacta value against the even-money favorite.

show7She's No QuantML 6/1

She's No Quant earns the third slot with a 75.75 rating, a 50% career win rate, and an 83% in-the-money rate that speaks to her consistency. She's placed in five of her last six races, showing she shows up ready to compete, and her dirt record of one win in three starts is perfectly respectable for a stakes horse. At 6/1, she's the right price to include in trifectas against the top two on this card.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Grand Slam Smile33%
2Christel Clean18%
7She's No Quant14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 9

7:33 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

Lanilla tops the TrackWiz ratings in this starter optional claiming turf route and brings a remarkable six-race in-the-money streak into the race, but Jasmine owns the fastest recent race figures and the best workout times — connections will tell the story on a competitive closer-heavy field.

win1LanillaML 3/1

Lanilla is the top-rated horse at 87.08 and has been an absolute model of consistency — she's hit the board in each of her last six races, posting a 85% career in-the-money rate. Joel Rosario (19% win rate, 52% ITM) handles the ride, and trainer Vladimir Cerin carries an A grade. Her recent race speed of 12.11 sec/furlong ranks second in the field, and TrackWiz simulations gave her a 30% win share. When a horse is this in-form, you lean into it.

place3JasmineML 7/2

Jasmine owns the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.02 sec/furlong and also tops the workout rankings at 11.95 sec/furlong — she's sharp right now by two different measures. Hector Berrios (19% win rate, 55% ITM) gives her a capable pilot, and trainer Peter Eurton (B- grade) has done well with her. At 7/2 morning line, she's a solid place bet and a logical exacta partner with Lanilla — just note her 25% career in-the-money rate is modest compared to our top pick.

show6Cat The ConfidanteML 4/1

Cat The Confidante ranks third in the field at 58.89 and brings Umberto Rispoli into the irons — a jockey who has posted a 24% win rate and 65% in-the-money rate over the past year. Trainer John Sadler (A grade) is one of the best in the barn, and that combination has historically produced results. Her overall in-the-money rate of 42% is respectable, and at 4/1 morning line she's a fair price to fill out the trifecta in a competitive field.

We ran Race 9 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Lanilla30%
3Jasmine18%
6Cat The Confidante14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line for today at Del Mar: Lady Ruth is the free best bet in Race 1 — fast, well-ridden, and sitting atop our TrackWiz ratings. The full nine-race card has real depth, with the Race 8 Stakes and a loaded turf program giving premium subscribers plenty of multi-race ticket opportunities. Clear skies and 81°F mean conditions aren't an excuse today — it comes down to the handicapping. Good luck at the windows.

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