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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — August 29, 2026

August 29, 202610 racesAll Del Mar picks

Results are in — see the official Del Mar chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 10)→

It's a beautiful Saturday at Del Mar — clear skies, 85°F, and a 10-race card that gives you plenty to work with from the first post to the nightcap. The Pacific breeze is keeping things comfortable out on the coast, and conditions are about as close to ideal as you'll get at this track.

Today's card spans both dirt and turf, mixing maiden fields with allowance company and capping things off with a pair of stakes races in Races 9 and 10. That late-card double — a 7-furlong dirt sprint followed by a route on the grass at 1 3/8 miles — is where the serious money tends to congregate, and we've got strong opinions on both.

Three races are open to everyone today, with our full-card premium breakdown covering the remaining seven. Whether you're here for a casual afternoon or grinding every race, there's plenty to dig into.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight three-way battle atop the morning line as two Sadler horses sandwich a pair of Baffert firsters — trainer power is the story here, and the margins are razor thin.

win1Ala SawabML 6/5

Ala Sawab tops our TrackWiz ratings at 59.67 and draws the rail under Joel Rosario, one of the sharpest pilots in the country when it comes to breaking from the one-hole in sprint maidens. Trainer John Sadler is a consistent performer in first-out situations at Del Mar, and the 6/5 morning line reflects genuine confidence from the connections. With no career races logged and no prior speed figure to lean on, you're betting on the package — the trainer, the jockey, and a rating that edges all rivals in this field.

place3RiccelliML 9/5

Riccelli is the other Baffert shooter at 9/5 and carries a TrackWiz rating of 58.67 — just a tick behind the top pick. Bob Baffert's debut maidens at Del Mar are always taken seriously, and Juan Hernandez gives this one a capable pilot who knows the track cold. The tight morning line gap between Riccelli and the favorite suggests the market sees this as a pick-'em between the top two, making the place ticket a sensible hedge.

show2EmancipateML 3/1

Emancipate is the second Baffert entry at 3/1 and brings the only measurable average speed figure in the top tier at 56 — a meaningful data point when the other principals are unraced. A 56.67 TrackWiz rating trails the top two, but in a five-horse maiden field where the pace is genuinely unknown, having some speed on record is a quiet edge worth noting for show and exotics.

Race 2

9:32 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer with a deep field, but one horse separates itself clearly in our model while the rest of the field bunches up in a competitive mid-tier scrum.

win6YautownML 7/2

Yautown stands out decisively here with a TrackWiz rating of 67.15 — a full ten points clear of the next-best horse in the field. Umberto Rispoli picks up the mount for trainer Michael McCarthy, who is reliably sharp with maiden claimers and fields horses ready to fire. The 7/2 morning line doesn't reflect the size of the ratings gap, making Yautown one of the better value plays on the card today.

place2Carolina LegacyML 5/2

Carolina Legacy is the runner-up in our model at 57.50 and gets the Joel Rosario upgrade — always a boost in a race like this. Sadler and Rosario are a clockwork combination at Del Mar, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market agrees this filly belongs near the top. She showed an average speed of 54 in prior works, keeping her competitive on figures even if she won't lead the way on ratings.

show8Sigma BoyML 6/1

Sigma Boy represents the second Sadler entry in the race and rates third overall at 51.67, with a consistent average speed of 55 giving him a legitimate figure foundation. Wandryck Cardoso Franco takes the mount, and at 6/1 there's a touch of value here for exotics — especially in a 10-horse field where pace dynamics could get messy and a stalker-type can benefit from early speed burning itself out.

Race 3

10:01 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Himari's unbeaten record grabs the eye, but a lightly raced 100% win percentage is paper-thin — the real intrigue is whether the deeper class of experienced rivals can expose a maiden special weight winner stepping up.

win2No CapML 4/1

No Cap tops the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin at 85.62 and gets Joel Rosario in the irons — a combination that commands respect in any allowance field. A 13% career win rate may seem modest, but that's a realistic clip for a horse running in competitive optional claimer company, and the 4/1 morning line offers solid return for a horse our model clearly favors. With an average speed of 57, No Cap has the highest speed figure among all runners and brings real class to this mile on the dirt.

place3Kozy Kurlin KittenML 7/2

Kozy Kurlin Kitten rates second at 71.04 and shows a 21% career win rate — the best win percentage among the experienced runners outside the top pick. Trainer Doug O'Neill has a strong allowance book at Del Mar and Jaramillo gives this one every chance to fire into the front flow. At 7/2, the morning line makes her a natural place companion to No Cap in exacta constructions.

show5Shared FutureML 5/1

Shared Future checks in at 68.85 and owns a 19% career win rate — right in the range of a consistent, professional allowance horse who finds a way to hit the board. The 5/1 price is fair, and trainer Mark Rheinford with Armando Aguilar aboard gives this one a workmanlike setup. For trifecta coverage, Shared Future provides a live option at a price that keeps the exotic payoffs meaningful.

Our three free races give you a solid cross-section of the card. Ala Sawab opens the day as the morning-line favorite in the Race 1 maiden special weight — a useful spot to gauge how the dirt is playing early. By Race 2, Yautown at 7/2 in the maiden claimer offers some value if the pace sets up right, and No Cap in the Race 3 allowance optional claiming is the pick we feel most confident about in the free group, posting a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 at a juicy 4/1 morning line.

One thing to watch across the early dirt races: with the track fast and weather clear, front-runners have historically held up well at Del Mar under these conditions. All three of our free picks project favorably in their respective pace scenarios — keep that in mind when building any multi-race tickets through the early going.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:31 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The turf mile starter allowance is stacked at the top with three horses bunched between 80 and 87 in our model — picking the winner here is genuinely difficult, and the pace scenario on grass at a mile will be decisive.

win2CaissonML 7/2

Caisson leads all runners with a 86.35 TrackWiz rating and gets Antonio Fresu, who has been sharp on the turf this summer. Trainer Mark Rheinford saddles this horse at 7/2 on the morning line, a price that underestimates the ratings edge just slightly. With a career win rate of 13%, Caisson hasn't been a monster by raw wins, but in a starter allowance field where class is compressed, a top model score is exactly what you want to anchor a ticket.

place8GrandisimoML 7/2

Grandisimo sits just behind at 85.45 with a notably stronger career win rate of 23% — the best among the top-rated contenders. Abel Lezcano takes over in the saddle for trainer Brian Cunningham, and the 7/2 morning line mirrors Caisson's, making this a genuine co-top of the market situation. On turf, where pace often sorts out in the stretch, a horse with Grandisimo's career win efficiency can be the one to come calling late.

show5DruidicML 6/1

Druidic rates third at 80.91 for trainer Daniel Azcarate with Kazushi Kimura — a jockey whose turf form at Del Mar this meet has been quietly excellent. The 6/1 morning line offers value for a horse sitting just outside the top two in our model, and a 13% career win rate in allowance company is respectable. In a three-horse photo for the top of the model, Druidic rounds out a logical trifecta wheel at a price that helps the ticket pay.

Race 5

11:02 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse maiden claimer on the sprint where our model finds a clear standout — but big fields breed chaos, and pace traffic in a six-furlong sprint can swallow favorites whole.

win10Positive TimesML 5/1

Positive Times rates a field-best 84.17 for trainer Ryan Hanson and gets Edwin Maldonado up — a capable combination that doesn't attract heavy morning line attention at 5/1, which is exactly the kind of value spot TrackWiz analysis is built to find. An average speed of 56 is among the top marks in the field, and in a sprint maiden claimer, raw speed figures are as predictive as it gets. The double-digit morning line gap between Positive Times and the next serious contender is notable — this horse should be taking money at post time.

place7Hit the Track JackML 6/1

Hit the Track Jack sits second in our model at 70.09 for trainer Ruben Gomez and draws Armando Ayuso, who is comfortable rating off the pace in short sprints. An average speed of 56 matches Positive Times on figures, which suggests this horse can keep up with the top pick physically — the model separation is about overall profile, not raw speed alone. At 6/1 on the morning line, Hit the Track Jack has genuine place appeal in a big field.

show12De FactoML 7/2

De Facto comes in at 57.27 with Joel Rosario grabbing the mount for trainer Brian Koriner — a jockey-trainer combo that regularly delivers in maiden company. The 7/2 morning line makes De Facto the second market choice despite sitting third in our model, which suggests connections and the betting public see something worth backing here. He's a logical show play and keeps your trifecta ticket honest in what could be a wide-spread exotic race.

Race 6

11:36 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

First-time turf sprinters dominate this wide-open maiden special weight, and with most horses showing zero prior speed figures, trainer reputation and workout patterns carry outsized weight today.

win10Seamless FactorML 3/1

Seamless Factor leads our ratings at 56.67 for trainer Carla Gaines with Hector Isaac Berrios in the irons, and the 3/1 morning line makes her the clear market favorite in a race where nobody has shown much on paper. In a turf sprint maiden full of debuting fillies, the market's confidence in Gaines — a trainer with genuine turf acumen at Del Mar — is a meaningful signal. No prior speed figure means we're projecting off the model, but the ratings edge here is real.

place6Petite MarieML 7/2

Petite Marie rates 55.83 and shows an average speed of 56 — one of only a handful of horses in this field carrying an actual figure into the race. Paula Capestro sends her out at 7/2 with Tyler Baze, and a prior speed mark on turf is invaluable when most of the competition is guessing. That measurable performance history gives Petite Marie a slight edge in projection and makes her a natural place complement to the top pick.

show4Savvy TigerML 5/1

Savvy Tiger at 5/1 gets Umberto Rispoli for trainer Philip D'Amato — and D'Amato's turf debut record at Del Mar is a genuine angle worth noting. Despite no prior speed figure on record, the 53.33 TrackWiz rating and the Rispoli-D'Amato combination give Savvy Tiger legitimate show appeal in a race where guessing is unavoidable. A 5/1 price for a D'Amato first-timer on turf is not a price to dismiss lightly.

Race 7

12:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two scratches shake up the allowance optional claimer field, and what's left is a competitive dirt sprint with a clear model leader — but several closers with strong career win percentages could make this a battle in the stretch.

win6SeptembersixtyfourML 7/2

Septembersixtyfour posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 for trainer Mike Puype with Kazushi Kimura in the irons — the same Kimura who has been one of the meet's standout performers. A 14% career win rate in allowance optional claiming company is sustainable for a horse consistently running against this caliber of competition, and an average speed of 56 keeps him right in the mix on figures. The 7/2 morning line reflects genuine respect from the market, and our model backs up that respect with the field's top number.

place8Matt At FiveML 5/1

Matt At Five is a compelling place play at 5/1 — a 42% career win rate is the highest mark among the legitimate contenders and signals a horse who finds the winner's circle with real regularity. Trainer Peter Miller with Hector Isaac Berrios is a live combination in sprint allowance races at Del Mar, and an 81.69 rating puts Matt At Five clearly in the second tier of the model. The gap between Septembersixtyfour and Matt At Five is modest enough that a circuit or a trip issue for the top pick makes the place position very attractive.

show11Howie's LawML EVN

Howie's Law carries a 78.40 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate — strong credentials, and notably the morning line listed EVN before the scratch removed Re Armed Jon and rearranged the market. Trainer and jockey details are unavailable post-scratch, but the model number is legitimate enough to keep in exotics. At whatever price this horse settles at, the 33% win rate and near-80 rating make it a credible show inclusion.

Race 8

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep claiming sprint with a model standout at the top, but a scratched horse (Day At the Track) still appears in the picks — bettors should note that scratches can reshape exacta and trifecta payouts significantly.

win1Stanford DropoutML 3/1

Stanford Dropout is our top-rated horse in this field at 87.08 — the highest TrackWiz rating of any horse across all claiming races on today's card. Trainer Steve Knapp puts him out at a generous 3/1 with Antonio Fresu, who is sharp in sprint claiming company. A 16% career win rate is respectable for a claimer, and an average speed of 56 gives Stanford Dropout a figure edge over most of this field. This is a horse the model loves, and the morning line price is reasonable enough to make the win bet straightforward.

place3Day At the TrackML EVN

Day At the Track is listed as scratched in the data but appears as the place pick — if this horse is declared out, bettors should adjust their tickets accordingly and look to the next-rated contender. The 72.62 TrackWiz rating and 14% career win rate represent a solid mid-tier claiming profile, and the EVN morning line suggested genuine confidence before the scratch. Always confirm final field status through TrackWiz updates before wagering.

show7It's a FactorML 6/1

It's a Factor sits at 67.84 in our model with Ricardo Gonzalez aboard for trainer Antonio Garcia — a 6/1 morning line that offers legitimate value for a show play. The 7% career win rate is on the low end, but in a field this large, a horse who finds the board consistently matters more than raw win percentage when constructing trifectas. An average speed of 53 is below the top tier, but at 6/1, the show price alone makes It's a Factor worth including as a hedge.

Race 9

1:11 AM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

This stakes sprint at seven furlongs features genuine talent top to bottom — a compact morning line where four horses are listed at 6/1 signals a wide-open race, but our model finds a clear top two worth trusting.

win9March of TimeML 5/1

March of Time tops our model at 84.17 for the powerhouse combination of Bob Baffert and Juan Hernandez — a pairing you never fade lightly in a stakes race. A 40% career win rate is outstanding at any level and suggests this horse doesn't just run well, it wins with regularity. The 5/1 morning line is fair but arguably a touch generous for a Baffert stakes runner with an average speed of 57 — tied for the field's best — and a model that places him comfortably atop the field.

place8Big City LightsML 7/2

Big City Lights rates second at 78.85 and owns the field's best career win rate at 52% — more than half his starts have ended in the winner's circle, which is a remarkable figure in stakes company. Trainer Richard Mandella sends him out at 7/2 with Kazushi Kimura, and an average speed of 57 matches the top pick on raw figures. This horse is not a place-and-forget — he's a serious win contender who just gets edged in the model, and in a stakes race, that gap can close on any given day.

show1StrongholdML 6/1

Stronghold comes in at 65.83 for trainer Philip D'Amato with Antonio Fresu and brings a 33% career win rate — the highest among the second tier of contenders. The 6/1 morning line is fair, and D'Amato has consistently put up competitive stakes runners at Del Mar throughout the summer. Stronghold is a logical show anchor in a stakes trifecta — experienced, well-conditioned, and guided by one of the meet's sharpest trainers.

Race 10

1:43 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

The feature turf marathon at 1 3/8 miles is a serious test of stamina with an international-style field — the distance will separate closers from pretenders, and pace setup at this trip is everything.

win4Gold PhoenixML 5/2

Gold Phoenix leads our model at 79.58 for trainer Philip D'Amato — one of the premier turf trainers on the West Coast — with Hector Isaac Berrios grabbing a strong mount at 5/2 on the morning line. A 32% career win rate is elite for a horse running at stakes distances, and an average speed of 55 keeps him competitive on figures in a field where most runners cluster in the same range. At a distance as demanding as 1 3/8 miles, trainer quality and horse profile matter enormously, and this combination checks both boxes.

place2Test ScoreML 3/1

Test Score slots in at 78.30 — barely a point behind the top pick — with Juan Hernandez aboard for trainer H. Graham Motion, a conditioner with an excellent record at routes on turf. A 31% career win rate mirrors Gold Phoenix's profile almost exactly, making this a genuine co-top scenario where the place bet is nearly as logical as the win. At 3/1 on the morning line, Test Score will likely go off as a co-favorite, and at this distance on turf, the Motion-Hernandez combination deserves that respect.

show11Packs a WahlopML 10/1

Packs a Wahlop is the value play of the race at 10/1 with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — just a step behind the top two, but carrying a morning line that suggests the market is underestimating this horse's chances. Trainer John Sadler with Emisael Jaramillo is a turf route combination worth watching, and a 19% career win rate at longer distances shows consistent effort. At double-digit odds, Packs a Wahlop rounds out a trifecta ticket that could pay handsomely if the top two run their race and this one slots into third.

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Bottom line: this is a card worth staying for start to finish. No Cap is our best bet among the free plays, and the Race 8–9 sequence is where we see the most actionable value for subscribers. Clear conditions, fast surfaces, and two stakes finales make August 29 at Del Mar a day to be locked in. Full analysis — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and all seven premium picks — is waiting for you at /pricing.

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