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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — August 22, 2026

August 22, 202611 racesAll Del Mar picks

It's a gorgeous Saturday at Del Mar — clear skies, 82°F, and the kind of afternoon that makes you remember why this place is called the track where the surf meets the turf. Conditions couldn't be much better, and with 11 races on the card spanning both dirt and turf, there's plenty to work with today.

The card leans heavily on the turf course, with six races run on the grass including three stakes. That's good news given how pristine the turf has been playing lately under these dry, sunny conditions. On the dirt side, the main track should be fast and consistent — a pace-friendly surface that typically rewards horses with early speed. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets today.

The stakes action gets serious in the back half of the card. Tam Tam goes in the 1⅛-mile turf stakes in Race 9, El Potente takes the one-mile turf stakes in Race 11, and Knightsbridge tops our ratings heading into a 1¼-mile dirt stakes in Race 10. Three stakes, three strong top picks — it's the kind of card worth staying for from first post to last.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf mile where several horses are making their debuts, creating a ratings gap that our top pick exploits significantly — but plenty of pace and class intrigue surround him.

win1Bogarts BuccheroML 7/2

Bogarts Bucchero draws the rail and carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 86.35 — a full 20+ points clear of the next-best horse. Doug O'Neill is a proven Del Mar trainer who consistently fires first-timers and maidens, and Emisael Jaramillo is a sharp tactical rider who knows how to rate horses on turf. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is about as much value as you'll find on a horse this clearly superior in the ratings.

place4Born to RockML 5/1

Born to Rock (4) checks in with a 65.81 rating and an average speed figure of 54, which is competitive for this maiden claiming field. Michael McCarthy is a trainer who spots horses well in these spots, and Umberto Rispoli gives this runner a confident, experienced hand from post 4. At 5/1 morning line, the place payoff should be solid if the chalk fires.

show5Elusive ConML 6/1

Elusive Con (5) at 6/1 rates third in the field with a 62.58 score and matches several rivals on average speed at 55. Trainer Christopher Davis has a runner who fits the class level well, and Hector Isaac Berrios is a capable jockey to navigate the early turf traffic. As an exotic anchor at a double-digit mutuel, Elusive Con is worth sprinkling in tri and superfecta tickets.

Race 2

9:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two scratches tighten up this six-furlong dirt claiming sprint, and the result is a lopsided ratings edge at the top — though the pace scenario figures to be contentious with a large field chasing a clear standout.

win9Shady StripesML 2/1

Shady Stripes (9) posts a dominant 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the best mark in this field by a wide margin — and tops the board at 2/1 as the morning-line chalk. Tyler Baze gets the call and is a savvy sprint rider who can control position in a big field. A 12% career win rate is modest, but this horse's speed figures (avg 55) and overall profile suggest this is a class and quality drop into a very beatable group.

place6My Girl MiaML 4/1

My Girl Mia (6) rates second in the field at 58.93 and gets the powerful Emisael Jaramillo/Doug O'Neill combo — a pairing that clicks consistently at Del Mar. The 4/1 morning line represents real value for a place ticket, especially in a race where the pace could soften up the front runners and set up closers like Mia.

show2Church LadyML 5/1

Church Lady (2) brings an 11% career win rate and a solid 51.27 rating into this field, and trainer Martin Valenzuela Jr. runs a tight operation in these claiming ranks. At 5/1, she's a logical show play in a race where three or four horses figure to battle for the top spots and she can sneak into the money at a decent price.

Race 3

10:03 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

This allowance optional claiming turf route features a deep, experienced field with multiple horses carrying 20%+ win percentages — a genuinely contentious race where the winner could come from several different running styles.

win12Allequin SummerML 9/2

Allequin Summer (12) earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.90 and backs it up with a 22% career win percentage — respectable credentials in an AOC field. Trainer Paula Capestro sends this runner with Hector Isaac Berrios in the irons, and at 9/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated horse. The 1 1/16-mile turf distance suits horses with tactical versatility, and this one profiles as exactly that.

place10Ventry StrandML 5/1

Ventry Strand (10) is a name to know — a 28% career win rate is exceptional for this level, and John Sadler is one of the best turf conditioners in Southern California. Joel Rosario adds elite jockey quality from post 10, and a 78.06 rating confirms this horse belongs near the top of the ticket. At 5/1, the place is the smart play if you want exposure to Sadler's runner without taking a full swing.

show4Trump EraML 7/2

Trump Era (4) sits third on ratings at 74.66 and brings a 16% career win rate into this competitive mix. Edwin Maldonado is a skilled turf jockey who can find position in traffic, and trainer Ryan Hanson's horses often run well in competitive AOC spots at Del Mar. At 7/2 morning line, Trump Era is actually the shortest-priced horse in our top three, making the show ticket a low-risk exotic inclusion.

We're giving everyone a look at Races 1, 2, and 3 today — a nice cross-section of the card that covers maiden claimers on the turf, a six-furlong dirt sprint, and an allowance optional claiming route back on the grass. Bogarts Bucchero (7/2 ML, TrackWiz rating 86.35) opens things up in the maiden claimer at a mile on turf — a number that stands out at that price for this level. In Race 2, Shady Stripes ships to the six-furlong dirt sprint as the 2/1 morning line choice and our highest-rated free pick at 88.54 — the pace scenario here sets up nicely for a horse with her running style. Then Allequin Summer (9/2 ML) closes out the free card in the Race 3 allowance optional claimer, where the turf conditions today give turf routers a genuine edge.

One thread connecting all three free picks: the turf is playing true and the dirt looks fast and fair. No obvious surface biases to fight today, which means horses with the clearest form edges should get their due. These are solid spots to start building your card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A first-time-starter-heavy Maiden Special Weight on the dirt mile where unknown quantities dominate — several horses have zero starts and no published speed figures, making our ratings model and trainer pedigree the primary handicapping tools.

win2Boss Man BoltML 5/1

Boss Man Bolt (2) tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 and an average speed figure of 55 — meaningful work for a first-time starter crowd where several rivals show no speed figures at all. Trainer Mick Ruis Sr. is a capable conditioner who develops young horses well, and Armando Ayuso gives this runner professional handling. At 5/1, Boss Man Bolt offers legitimate overlay value compared to the morning-line favorite.

place5MotgaML 2/1

Motga (5) is the 2/1 morning-line favorite — a clear signal that connections and the oddsmaking community are high on this Bob Baffert-trained first-timer. Baffert's first-out record in MSW dirt routes is historically strong, and Juan Hernandez is an elite-level jockey who gets the best of the Baffert barn. The 58.33 rating trails our win pick, but the barn's reputation makes Motga a legitimate threat to hit the board.

show6Take a PictureML 3/1

Take a Picture (6) carries a 56.67 rating and gets Peter Miller — a sharp trainer — combined with Joel Rosario, who is arguably the best turf rider on the grounds and handles dirt capably as well. The 3/1 morning line suggests sharp money respects this runner, and with no published speed figures from rivals making debuts, the horses with any work to point to have a legitimate edge. Take a Picture belongs in exotics.

Race 5

11:10 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf stakes sprint with genuine star power — Man O Rose's 60% win rate and Motorious's top rating create a fascinating battle between proven winning percentages and peak form speed figures.

win6MotoriousML 5/2

Motorious (6) leads all starters with an 85.31 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 59 — elite numbers for a five-furlong turf sprint. Philip D'Amato is one of the premier turf trainers in California, and Antonio Fresu is a crafty jockey who excels at short turf distances where pace judgment is critical. The 38% career win rate and 5/2 morning line confirm this horse is rightfully the top pick, with the figures to back it up.

place9Sorrento SkyML 8/1

Sorrento Sky (9) is the TrackWiz value play of the race — a 79.79 rating is second in the field, but 8/1 morning line odds put this horse well above her implied probabilities. Also trained by Philip D'Amato, this is a barn running at full strength, and Umberto Rispoli is a proven short-turf specialist. A 23% career win rate on a horse rated this high at these odds makes Sorrento Sky a strong place play and a key exotic piece.

show5SumterML 4/1

Sumter (5) brings the second-best average speed figure in the field at 58 and a 20% career win rate from the Richard Mandella barn — one of the most respected operations in the country. Mike Smith has hidden races where connections are setting up a big effort, and at 4/1, Sumter is worth including on all multi-horse wagers as the most credentialed of the secondary contenders.

Race 6

11:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

With Blame Ashley scratched, this five-and-a-half furlong dirt maiden sprint for fillies tightens to a battle of first-timers and lightly raced horses — trainer pedigree and morning-line positioning are the handicapper's best friends here.

win6FuriosityML 7/2

Furiosity (6) earns the top TrackWiz rating in the active field at 55.83 and gets the potent Bob Baffert/Juan Hernandez combination — a pairing that consistently wins at this meeting. With no speed figures available for several rivals, the fact that Furiosity has a published profile gives her a tangible edge. The 7/2 morning line is fair and reflects the barn's respected first-out record in maiden sprints.

place7Confetti RainML 4/1

Confetti Rain (7) matches the show pick on rating at 55.00 but gets a slight nod here given the Doug O'Neill/Emisael Jaramillo combination — a tandem that hits regularly at Del Mar. At 4/1, Confetti Rain is a logical place play who can stalk the pace and pounce if the favorites get into a speed duel on the front end. Worth including in exacta and trifecta combinations.

show9Sea's No JokeML 4/1

Sea's No Joke (9) is the second Bob Baffert runner in the field, trained by a conditioner with a legendary record in maiden sprint events at this track. Florent Geroux is a polished jockey who rates horses well in short dashes, and the 55.00 rating is tied for second-best among active runners. Two Baffert runners in the same maiden race raises the possibility that both fire — Sea's No Joke deserves show coverage.

Race 7

12:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full, sprawling turf mile field in an AOC spot — with 14 entries and multiple horses rated in the 80s, this race has legitimate win contenders from multiple parts of the draw, and the exotics should pay well.

win8Lonesome StewML 6/1

Lonesome Stew (8) combines the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 82.71 with a remarkable 46% career win percentage — the kind of winning pedigree that stands out in any field. Mark Glatt is a sharp trainer for these turf routes, and Antonio Fresu is a capable jockey who can rate a horse perfectly over a mile on grass. At 6/1, this is a horse that's rated like a favorite but priced like a midfield contender — that's where value lives.

place14Packs a WahlopML 5/1

Packs a Wahlop (14) rates second in the field at 81.79 and gets the John Sadler/Joel Rosario combination — arguably the most formidable trainer-jockey duo in Southern California turf racing. A 19% career win rate is solid, and the 5/1 morning line is reasonable for a horse this competitive on ratings. From the 14 post, Rosario will need a good early trip, but he's more than capable of finding position.

show10First PeaceML 7/2

First Peace (10) boasts a 27% career win rate and the highest average speed figure among our top three picks at 58 — suggesting this horse runs consistently fast fractions on turf. Mark Glatt saddles this runner as well, giving the barn two live chances in the same race. Mike Smith in the irons at 7/2 makes this the morning-line shortest of our selections, and a show play at that price offers low-risk exotic coverage.

Race 8

12:40 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A competitive dirt-mile AOC that sets up as a two-horse ratings battle between Pure Madness and Magnify — but don't sleep on the closers, as pace figures to be honest with several speed horses in the field.

win5Pure MadnessML 5/1

Pure Madness (5) is the standout here — an 84.17 TrackWiz rating paired with a 50% career win percentage is elite-level production for an AOC dirt route. Brian Koriner consistently places horses in spots where they can succeed, and Armando Ayuso is a capable handler at Del Mar. At 5/1, this is a genuine overlay: the ratings say favorite, the odds say mid-card price — that's the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place7MagnifyML 3/1

Magnify (7) sits just behind our top pick with an 83.38 rating and gets the Tim Yakteen/Kazushi Kimura combination — Kimura in particular has been one of the form riders at this Del Mar meet. The 3/1 morning line makes Magnify the likely favorite on the board, and while a 12% career win rate gives slight pause, the speed figure profile at 54 average is right in line with what this distance requires. Strong place play.

show9SantarenaML 5/1

Santarena (9) profiles as the pace-presser who could steal into the superfecta — a 62.59 rating is third-best in the field, and Joel Rosario rarely gets on horses without legitimate winning chances in these allowance spots. Mark Glatt has this runner pointed right, and an average speed of 56 is actually the highest in the field — suggesting Santarena runs fast fractions that could carry over at a mile. At 5/1, the show ticket is a smart hedge.

Race 9

1:10 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A stakes turf route loaded with intrigue — Tam Tam's top rating clashes with two horses showing 100% career win rates and a fascinating international entry in Kensington Lane (IRE), making this one of the day's most exotic-friendly races.

win3Tam TamML 4/1

Tam Tam (3) earns the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 85.62 and a 37% career win rate — excellent credentials for a turf stakes at 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Philip Bauer sends this runner with Junior Alvarado, who is a seasoned stakes rider capable of rating a horse over a route. At 4/1 on the morning line, Tam Tam represents fair value with the best figures in the field and the look of a horse ready to take on a graded challenge.

place10Raiding PartyML 4/1

Raiding Party (10) is trained by Brendan Walsh, one of the leading turf conditioners in the country, and carries a 50% career win rate that commands serious respect. Ben Curtis gets the mount and is a proven stakes jockey, while the 4/1 morning line ties Tam Tam for chalk status. The 75.57 rating is second-best in the field, making Raiding Party a logical place play who could easily reverse the order.

show6InboxML 10/1

Inbox (6) at 10/1 is a sneaky value play from the Philip D'Amato barn — the best turf operation in California. A 68.26 rating and 25% career win rate suggest this horse is capable, and Hector Isaac Berrios gives it a confident, aggressive ride style that can work in a stakes turf route where early position matters. The show price at 10/1 is excellent for exotic builders looking to land a big trifecta.

Race 10

1:43 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

The day's marquee dirt route — a 1 1/4-mile stakes that features Knightsbridge as a dominant favorite backed by a 63% career win rate and the top rating, but Navajo Warrior and Full Serrano offer genuine value for players who want to beat the chalk.

win11KnightsbridgeML 5/2

Knightsbridge (11) is the standout of the card — an 86.69 TrackWiz rating (tops in the field) combined with a 63% career win rate is simply remarkable for a stakes field at this level. William Mott is a Hall of Fame trainer, and Junior Alvarado has ridden at the highest levels in recent years. The 5/2 morning line is short but warranted: you're backing one of the best-rated horses on the entire card today.

place9Navajo WarriorML 8/1

Navajo Warrior (9) brings a 55% career win percentage — second-best in this field — and a 79.79 rating that makes him the clear second-best horse in the TrackWiz model. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is a powerful national barn that wins in these spots regularly, and Micah Husbands is a sharp jockey who knows how to conserve energy over a route of ground. At 8/1, this is the value play of the race — a horse with elite winning credentials at a generous price.

show10Full SerranoML 8/1

Full Serrano (10) gets Joel Rosario and John Sadler — a combination that wins routes at Del Mar as consistently as any in the country. A 37% career win rate and 74.54 rating confirm genuine class, and at 8/1, the show ticket is excellent risk/reward for a horse that belongs in this field. If the pace gets honest over 1 1/4 miles, Rosario's patient style could set up a strong late run into the money.

Race 11

2:18 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A deep turf mile stakes to close the card — El Potente's top rating is clear, but King of Gosford's 53% career win rate and Philip D'Amato's turf mastery make this a legit two-horse battle with several exotic threats lurking underneath.

win12El PotenteML 7/2

El Potente (12) leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 35% career win rate — strong numbers for a turf stakes mile. Hector Isaac Berrios gets the mount from the Dan Blacker barn, and the 7/2 morning line reflects a horse that the oddsmakers expect to be competitive. An average speed of 57 is among the best in the field, suggesting El Potente brings both class and pace capacity to this spot.

place9King of GosfordML 5/1

King of Gosford (9) is trained by Philip D'Amato and ridden by Umberto Rispoli — a combination that wins turf stakes at Del Mar at a high rate. The 53% career win percentage is the best in this field by a considerable margin, and a 78.33 rating is solidly second-best. At 5/1, a place ticket on King of Gosford is one of the strongest value plays on the closing race card, blending trainer quality with winning pedigree.

show7AlmendaresML 6/1

Almendares (7) provides a third D'Amato runner in this stakes — a barn firing on all cylinders late in the card. A 68.96 rating and 17% career win rate are respectable credentials, and Antonio Fresu is a jockey who excels at finding holes in turf traffic over a one-mile course. At 6/1, Almendares rounds out an all-D'Amato exacta and trifecta possibility that could produce a substantial multi-race exotic payoff.

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Bottom line: it's a deep, stakes-loaded Saturday at Del Mar with prime conditions and three top picks in our free analysis to get you started — Bogarts Bucchero, Shady Stripes, and Allequin Summer. For the full card including Knightsbridge, Tam Tam, El Potente, and all our exotic ticket strategies, subscribers have everything they need. Not a member yet? Head to TrackWiz Premium and get in before first post. Good luck out there.

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