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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — August 21, 2026

August 21, 20268 racesAll Del Mar picks

It's a beautiful Friday afternoon at the Del Mar meet — partly cloudy skies, 81°F, and a seaside breeze that makes this one of the best days on the racing calendar. Eight races are on the board today, split between the main dirt track and the turf course, giving us plenty of angles to work with from first post to the nightcap.

The card has a nice mix of conditions: two Maiden Special Weights, a pair of Allowance Optional Claimers, two straight Claiming races, and a duo of Maiden Claimers to bookend things. The star of the show figures to be Race 7, a one-mile turf AOC where our top-rated contender Tahini draws in at a juicy morning line of 2/1. That's a race worth circling on your program early.

Three races are unlocked and free for all TrackWiz readers today. The premium full-card analysis — covering Races 4 through 8 — is available to subscribers. Here's your roadmap for the afternoon.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint where first-time starters dominate the field — TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top of the market but plenty of unknown quantities make this one unpredictable.

win4Running SpartanML 3/1

Running Spartan (4) earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 82.84, and trainer George Papaprodromou has a strong reputation for getting debut runners ready to fire first out. The 3/1 morning line suggests the market agrees this is the one to beat. With Cesar Belmont aboard and the pace scenario likely to set up for a closer or a horse with tactical speed, Running Spartan looks like the most complete package in what is otherwise a field full of question marks.

place5Fuzzy StareML 6/1

Fuzzy Stare (5) grades out second-best on the TrackWiz model at 72.52 and carries a competitive 6/1 price that offers genuine each-way value. Trainer Isidro Tamayo spots horses thoughtfully, and Kyle Frey gives this one a live look from the five hole on the turf. If Running Spartan faces any traffic, Fuzzy Stare has the profile to sweep past for a piece.

show6Smashing MachineML 5/2

Smashing Machine (6) is the public's second choice at 5/2 under Bob Baffert, and the Hall of Fame trainer's record with first-time starters on turf is well established. Drayden Van Dyke is a polished turf rider who can find daylight in a short five-furlong sprint. Even without a speed figure on record, the connections here demand respect and make this horse a safe landing spot in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Race 2

9:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Captain Shreve looks like a horse trying to graduate from the bottom rung of the maiden claiming ladder — the question is whether the morning line favorite is as dominant as the numbers suggest or vulnerable to a pace-pressing spoiler.

win2Captain ShreveML 7/5

Captain Shreve (2) is a standout on paper with a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 — a full 30+ points clear of the next logical threat in this field. The 7/5 morning line reflects that dominance, and trainer George Papaprodromou saddles him with Umberto Rispoli, one of the sharpest tactical riders at Del Mar. The horse carries an average speed figure of 56 in a field where several rivals are sitting at the same benchmark, but the rating gap here is significant enough that Captain Shreve projects as a must-use in all exotics.

place4Sharons MaxfieldML 3/1

Sharons Maxfield (4) rates at 56.67 under the TrackWiz model and holds a slight edge over the rest of the mid-pack group at 3/1. Trainer Richard Baltas is a consistent presence at Del Mar, and Diego A. Herrera gives this one a capable pilot. If anything goes sideways for the heavy favorite, Sharons Maxfield has the profile to grab the runner-up spot.

show5GandalfML 7/2

Gandalf (5) comes in at 55.83 on the TrackWiz model, nearly identical to Sharons Maxfield, making these two interchangeable for the show slot. John W. Sadler is a respected barn and Alfredo L. Bautista should get a clean look from post five in this short sprint. At 7/2, Gandalf is reasonably priced as a third-slot anchor in trifecta plays.

Race 3

10:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

The top of this five-furlong turf claimer is tightly contested between two horses with nearly identical TrackWiz ratings — but a subtle pace scenario could tilt the outcome toward one over the other.

win7Hurricane WayML 3/1

Hurricane Way (7) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 87.08 and comes in from the outside post, which on a five-furlong turf sprint typically asks a horse to do extra work early. That said, trainer Mark Rheinford spots horses well and Armando Ayuso is comfortable on the Del Mar turf. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and a career win rate of 9% in what is presumably a limited sample isn't a red flag in a claiming context — the rating does the talking here.

place6Proud RacerML 7/2

Proud Racer (6) rates just behind at 80.84 and is trained by Peter Miller, who consistently ranks among the top conditioners at the Del Mar meet. A 10% career win rate in a claiming field is acceptable, and Ricardo Gonzalez has been sharp around the oval. At 7/2, Proud Racer offers real each-way value and could easily be the best horse if Hurricane Way gets into traffic from the far outside.

show2Luck LuckyML 2/1

Luck Lucky (2) brings the best career win percentage in the field at 20% and comes in as the 2/1 morning line favorite, meaning the public likely loves this one more than our model does. Trainer Philip D'Amato is exceptional on the Del Mar turf and Antonio Fresu is a polished turf jockey. A show position in trifectas is warranted — the 66.96 rating keeps Luck Lucky relevant even as a fade from the top spot.

Our three free races today are clustered right at the top of the card and offer some genuinely interesting betting opportunities. Race 1 opens things up on the turf at five furlongs — a Maiden Special Weight where Running Spartan (3/1 ML, TrackWiz rating 82.84) gets our nod. Short turf sprints at Del Mar can be tricky to pace-read, so watch the early fractions closely. Race 2 shifts to dirt for a 5½-furlong Maiden Claimer, and Captain Shreve (7/5 ML, rating 89.42) is our most confident free pick of the day — the highest-rated selection among the trio and a horse who should be tough to beat if he runs to his profile. Race 3 brings us back to the turf for a five-furlong Claimer, where Hurricane Way (3/1 ML, rating 87.08) gives us a solid price with legitimate upside.

One theme connecting all three free picks: speed is at a premium in these short-distance sprints. Horses that can establish position early without burning out tend to hold up well on Del Mar's compact layouts. Keep that pace scenario in mind as you're building your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:34 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint on dirt where a horse with elite career win percentage meets a field of capable veterans — pace could be honest here with multiple speed types likely to battle early.

win1Billie HolidayML 5/2

Billie Holiday (1) is our top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and a 33% career win rate that stands out in this field. Trainer Steven Miyadi has her pointing to this spot with purpose, and Diego A. Herrera gets the call from the rail — a post that at five and a half furlongs on dirt can be a launching pad for a horse that breaks cleanly. The 5/2 morning line is fair, and this is a race where we want to be on board with the TrackWiz top-rated horse.

place4La SilenciosaML 5/1

La Silenciosa (4) brings a 25% career win rate and a solid 75.64 TrackWiz rating, making her the clear second choice in our analysis despite going off at 5/1. Emisael Jaramillo is a grinder who works well in traffic, and trainer Victor L. Garcia has her primed for a forward effort. The price alone makes her a worthwhile inclusion in exactas — she's not a throwout at this odds level.

show2Smile Baby SmileML 4/1

Smile Baby Smile (2) rates at 60.64 and shows a 20% career win percentage that demonstrates she knows how to finish in the money. Trainer Ronald Glatt and Abel Lezcano form a workmanlike combo, and at 4/1 she's not overpriced for a third-place slot in trifectas. Her profile is that of a horse who rarely embarrasses, which is exactly what you want anchoring your exotic plays.

Race 5

11:06 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A sprawling 12-horse maiden turf sprint with a clear standout on the TrackWiz model — but big fields at five furlongs on grass are notoriously chaotic, making pace and post position critical factors.

win2Seeking AttentionML 5/2

Seeking Attention (2) is the most intriguing horse in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.71 — a significant jump above the rest of the field. Trainer Peter Eurton is one of the better debuters in Southern California, regularly sending first-time starters out sharp on turf, and Armando Ayuso picks up the mount at 5/2. The average speed figure of 57 is the best posted figure in the race among horses who have recorded one. In a wide-open maiden field, having a clear model edge plus a quality trainer-jockey combination makes Seeking Attention our confident top pick.

place10First Or LastML 3/1

First Or Last (10) comes in with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating and also clocks a 57 average speed figure — matching Seeking Attention's figure and giving this Doug O'Neill trainee real credentials at 3/1. Antonio Fresu has been a reliable turf pilot all meet and the outside post could actually work in a five-furlong sprint where the entire field is breaking from a gate. This is a horse with enough raw ability to grab the second spot against a competitive field.

show1Autumn LeavesML 4/1

Autumn Leaves (1) carries John W. Sadler's barn colors — a trainer who thrives on Del Mar turf — with Umberto Rispoli aboard, one of the best turf riders in the country. The TrackWiz rating of 55 is modest but the connections are top-shelf, and the rail post in a maiden turf dash can work if she breaks clean and avoids early trouble. At 4/1, she's worth including in trifecta tickets purely on trainer-jockey merit.

Race 6

11:36 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claiming race with legitimate speed throughout the field — the pace could be hot early, which sets up a potential closer to sweep late and steal the show.

win4Red FlagML 3/1

Red Flag (4) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and owns a 32% career win rate that puts him among the more accomplished horses in this field. Trainer Jeff Mullins has a knack for spotting horses in spots where they can fire, and Tiago Josue Pereira is an underrated jockey who excels on the front end. At 3/1, this is a horse that the model strongly supports — the combination of elite rating plus proven win rate makes Red Flag the anchor of the card for us.

place7TessutoML 6/1

Tessuto (7) rates at 71.82 and is trained by Peter Miller, who as mentioned earlier is one of the hottest conditioners at the Del Mar meet. The 6/1 price is generous for a horse with an 11% career win rate in what has presumably been a competitive path. Ricardo Gonzalez is comfortable on this horse, and if the pace scenario unfolds with early speed burning itself out, Tessuto from the outside post could be the horse flying late.

show8Zeus' WarML 12/1

Zeus' War (8) is worth a look at 12/1 as a show or trifecta inclusion, grading out at 70.33 on the TrackWiz model — nearly identical to Tessuto. A 16% career win rate shows this horse fires on occasion, and Francisco Rodriguez has him in a manageable spot here. Armando Ayuso picks up the mount, and at double-digit odds, Zeus' War is an affordable bomb to sprinkle into your multi-race tickets.

Race 7

12:06 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf allowance optional claimer featuring a standout on the ratings but a formidable field that includes a horse with a jaw-dropping career win percentage — pace should be honest at a true route distance.

win2TahiniML 2/1

Tahini (2) leads the TrackWiz model at 88.54 and goes off at 2/1 on the morning line, making her the clear top choice in our analysis. Trainer George Papaprodromou saddles her with Antonio Fresu, a polished turf route specialist, and the one-mile distance on grass suits horses with tactical speed rather than pure sprinters. The 15% career win rate is modest, but the rating gap between Tahini and the rest of the field is meaningful — this looks like a horse who has been pointed to this spot.

place5Pura Vida PrincesaML 6/1

Pura Vida Princesa (5) grades out at 73.26 and offers excellent each-way value at 6/1 on the morning line. Doug O'Neill has a solid record routing on turf, and Joe Bravo is a seasoned hand who knows how to position a horse over a mile on grass. An 11% career win rate is serviceable, and at this price, including Pura Vida Princesa on top of your exactas behind Tahini could deliver a very nice return.

show1Canto Della TerraML 3/1

Canto Della Terra (1) is the wild card in this field — a 66% career win rate is extraordinary and demands attention even as a third-place selection. Philip D'Amato trains him and Ricardo Gonzalez has the call at 3/1, and while the TrackWiz rating of 70.97 puts him third in our model, that win percentage suggests a horse who knows how to finish in the money. Don't leave him off trifecta tickets.

Race 8

12:35 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden claiming sprint on dirt where our top pick is a significant overlay — the public might overlook Smokem Wicked entirely, making this one of the better value opportunities on the card.

win3Smokem WickedML 8/1

Smokem Wicked (3) is the clear TrackWiz top pick in this race at 79.79 despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect and represents genuine overlay territory. Trainer Adan Farias doesn't have the name recognition of some of the bigger barns in this field, but the model numbers are hard to argue with, and Francisco Monroy gets the call. An average speed figure of 55 puts Smokem Wicked in the middle of the pack on raw numbers, but the overall rating suggests there's more underneath — this is exactly the kind of price you're looking for in maiden claiming races.

place6Stanford WarriorML 3/1

Stanford Warrior (6) rates at 56.67 and carries the more recognizable 3/1 morning line that will attract public money. Trainer Jorge Periban gives Emisael Jaramillo the mount, and while there's no speed figure on record, the rating supports a forward effort. In a race where the win pick is a potential overlay, getting Stanford Warrior in second on your exacta tickets makes the payoffs even more attractive.

show5Here Comes Too TooML 4/1

Here Comes Too Too (5) comes in with a 55.00 TrackWiz rating and a recognizable barn behind her — George Papaprodromou, the same trainer sending out Captain Shreve in Race 2 today. Antonio Fresu picks up the mount, giving this one a top-tier jockey, and the 4/1 morning line suggests the market isn't sleeping on her. Use her in the third slot of trifectas as a reliable safety net behind your top two selections.

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Today's best free bet is Captain Shreve in Race 2 — the numbers say he's the most dominant horse in any of our unlocked races. For premium players, Tahini in the turf mile (Race 7) is the marquee play of the card, and Smokem Wicked is worth a look as a longshot flier in the closer. It's a gorgeous day at Del Mar — let's make it a profitable one. Full analysis for subscribers is live now.

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