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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — July 26, 2026

July 26, 202611 racesAll Del Mar picks

It's a beautiful Sunday at Del Mar — partly cloudy skies, a comfortable 80°F, and the Pacific breeze doing exactly what you'd want it to do on a summer afternoon at the track. Conditions are about as close to ideal as you'll get at the Seaside oval, and that matters on a card loaded with turf sprints and routes where a soft rail or tricky wind can turn a chalk bet into a bad day fast.

Eleven races are on the board today, mixing Maiden Special Weights and Allowance Optional Claimers across both surfaces before the card peaks with a Stakes event in Race 9 — a 1 1/8-mile turf affair that deserves your full attention. Throw in a pair of longshot angles our models flagged and you've got plenty of reasons to stay locked in from first post to last.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A loaded turf mile to kick off the card — Candy Bar and Cameron Slough separate themselves at the top of the ratings, but Lubie's Music looms as a sneaky price in a race where the morning line is tighter than it looks.

win1Candy BarML 7/2

Candy Bar tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35, the highest mark in this field by a meaningful margin, and Kazushi Kimura is the right rider to put her in position on the front end of a turf mile. She's at 7/2 on the morning line, which feels fair rather than generous — but the rating edge is undeniable. Trainer Jose R. Valdez keeps her sharp, and with an average speed figure of 57 matching the top of the field, she's the most logical win choice here.

place6Cameron SloughML 4/1

Cameron Slough grades out second in the field at 83.79 and shares that 57 average speed figure with the top choice, making her a natural underneath play. Trainer Blaine D. Wright has her at 4/1 on the morning line, and Armando Ayuso gets the call — a workmanlike pairing that should keep her in contention throughout. If Candy Bar hits any traffic or breaks slow, Cameron Slough is right there to pick up the pieces.

show5Lubie's MusicML 12/1

Lubie's Music at 12/1 is the price horse worth including in your exotics. A 25% career win rate is the best in this field — that's a horse that knows how to close out races when she fires. Richard E. Mandella conditions her, and Hall of Fame trainers don't send horses to post without a purpose. The rating of 73.04 ranks third here, and at double-digit odds she's a genuinely attractive show and exotic play.

Race 2

9:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

An open maiden dirt mile where Van Gogh Style owns a commanding ratings edge, but the tightly bunched middle of the field — Zakiel, Mickey, and De Facto all within a few points — means the exacta beneath him is anyone's game.

win2Van Gogh StyleML 2/1

Van Gogh Style carries an 87.43 TrackWiz rating into this maiden special weight, the highest figure in the field and a full 30 points clear of the third-place horse — that kind of separation in a maiden field is significant. Tyler Baze is in the irons for trainer Sean McCarthy, and the 2/1 morning line reflects public confidence that mirrors our own. With an average speed figure of 54 matching the field median, he's not a rocket, but the class edge should be more than enough to get the job done.

place5ZakielML 5/2

Zakiel is the 5/2 morning line second choice and rates out at 57.5 for Peter Eurton — one of the sharpest maiden conditioners in Southern California. His 55 average speed figure edges the top choice slightly, which hints at raw ability that could show up at first asking. In a race where the favorite will attract heavy chalk money, Zakiel underneath offers solid value in the exacta.

show3MickeyML 3/1

Mickey draws the rail for Joel Rosario — and getting Rosario on a maiden is always a meaningful upgrade. He grades out at 56.67, just a hair behind Zakiel, and his 55 average speed figure is competitive. At 3/1 he won't light up the win pool, but as the third wheel in a straight exacta or trifecta key he makes plenty of sense.

Race 3

10:04 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile stacked with first-time starters — pace will be unpredictable and the winner could come from anywhere, making this a strong exotic race rather than a straightforward single.

win3Automatic PressML 4/1

Automatic Press posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 69.22 and gets Joel Rosario in the saddle for trainer Peter Miller — that's as good a maiden combination as you'll find in California. His 55 average speed figure is competitive, and Miller has a strong record debuting horses on turf at Del Mar. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is a win price that still offers some value given the overall quality of the connections.

place6Let Her FlyML 5/2

Let Her Fly is the 5/2 morning line favorite and grades out at 57.5, comfortably second in the field. Doug O'Neill saddles her with Emisael Jaramillo — a live combo — and her 56 average speed figure is among the best in the race. The favorite's price isn't exciting, but pairing her underneath Automatic Press in exactas is a structured approach in a chaotic maiden field.

show1Dream SeekerML 3/1

Dream Seeker draws the rail for John Velazquez — and honestly, getting JV on a first-time starter is always reason to take notice. He tops out at a 56.67 rating for trainer Michael McCarthy, who also has two other horses in this race, suggesting he's comfortable with this surface and distance setup. At 3/1 he's not a throwback price, but Velazquez's ability to find the ideal position early on turf makes him a solid show and trifecta inclusion.

TrackWiz is opening up the first three races for every reader today, and they cover a nice cross-section of the card — a turf mile, a dirt mile for maidens, and another maiden turf route. Candy Bar at 7/2 kicks things off in Race 1, earning a solid 86.35 TrackWiz rating in an Allowance Optional Claiming field where the morning line feels a touch generous. In Race 2, Van Gogh Style tops the Maiden Special Weight on the dirt with our highest free-race rating of the day at 87.43 — that 2/1 morning line makes this one of the more straightforward plays on the card. Race 3 brings a wider-open turf maiden where Automatic Press sits at 4/1, though the lower 69.22 rating signals this is a more vulnerable spot and deserves some spreading in your exotics.

The common thread across these three free races is pace — all three are routed at a mile, meaning early speed will be tested and closers get every chance to fire late on a turf course that's expected to play fair today. Keep that in mind when you're constructing your early Pick 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:38 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Quick Kate owns a clear ratings advantage in this allowance optional claiming dirt mile, but Goodnight Nellie's eye-popping 36% career win rate and the presence of two Bob Baffert runners make this more interesting than the top number suggests.

win6Quick KateML 4/1

Quick Kate tops this field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and gets Kazushi Kimura — one of the most in-form riders at Del Mar right now. Trainer Craig Anthony Lewis places her perfectly in an AOC at a mile on the dirt, and her 55 average speed figure is right in the mix. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's not the shortest price in the field despite being our top-rated horse, which actually makes her a strong value play for win bettors.

place2Goodnight NellieML 4/1

Goodnight Nellie is the standout angle in this race: a 36% career win rate is elite by any standard, and she grades out second in the field at 67.62. Andy Mathis sends her out at 4/1 with Cesar Belmont aboard, and her 56 average speed figure is the co-highest in the field. Horses with win rates that high find a way to hit the board — she belongs in exactas and trifectas as a confident underneath play.

show5CiprianiML 5/2

Cipriani is one of two Bob Baffert runners here and draws the 5-hole with Juan Hernandez up. A 58.11 rating and a 25% career win rate are respectable marks, and Baffert doesn't enter horses in AOC company without believing they belong. At 5/2 on the morning line he'll likely be bet down, but as the third horse in a trifecta with the top two rated horses, he's a natural fit.

Race 5

11:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open 13-runner maiden turf sprint with one scratch — Danzing Daisy tops our ratings but the gap to the next tier is narrow, and Girl Fire at 20/1 is a legitimate price play that could light up the exotics.

win9Danzing DaisyML 8/1

Danzing Daisy posts the field's best TrackWiz rating at 73.33 for Sean McCarthy, who also saddles Come On Om in this race — dual-entry trainers at this level often have a clear idea which horse they prefer, and Armando Ayuso's call on Danzing Daisy over the other entry is a subtle but meaningful signal. Her 55 average speed figure is competitive in a sprint on turf. At 8/1 on the morning line, she's a legitimate overlay given that rating advantage.

place8Girl FireML 20/1

Girl Fire is one of the most intriguing plays on the entire card at 20/1 on the morning line. Her TrackWiz rating of 62.29 is actually fourth-best in the full field, which is a serious disconnect from her odds. Trainer Felix Gonzalez sends her out with Edgar Payeras, and while neither is a household name at Del Mar, the numbers say she belongs in the conversation. In a large maiden field on turf, overlooked horses at big prices hit the board regularly — she's a strong exotic play.

show10DrulinerML 8/1

Druliner draws the 10-hole for Joel Rosario and trainer Craig Anthony Lewis, and a rating of 60.05 with a 54 average speed figure makes him one of the more credentialed runners in this deep field. Rosario rarely takes weak mounts in California sprints — his presence alone pushes Druliner's probability ceiling higher than the 8/1 morning line implies. Use him in trifectas and supers as a show anchor.

Race 6

11:40 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Perfect Smile owns an enormous ratings edge in this maiden claiming sprint, but this is the kind of large field where pace chaos can scramble the result — Salty Siss and Cotta Ride make for a logical and structured exotics approach.

win5Perfect SmileML 7/2

Perfect Smile is the class of this 14-horse maiden claiming field with a 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the same elite mark Candy Bar posted to win Race 1. Peter Miller gets Joel Rosario in the irons, arguably the most dangerous combination in this race by a mile. Her 55 average speed figure is among the best in the field, and in a maiden claiming sprint this is essentially a mismatch on paper. The 7/2 morning line is a fair price for a horse that should be running away from this group.

place2Salty SissML 6/1

Salty Siss grades out second at 69.68 for trainer Vann Belvoir with Armando Aguilar up, and her 54 average speed figure is solid for this level. She's drawn the 2-hole, which in a sprint should give her a clean break and the chance to establish position early. At 6/1 on the morning line there's genuine value here — horses at this odds range who rate second-best in the field are precisely the horses to back in exactas.

show1Cotta RideML 4/1

Cotta Ride draws the rail for trainer Craig Anthony Lewis and gets Kazushi Kimura — the same hot jockey who's our pick in Race 4. A 66.05 rating ranks third in this field, and her 54 average speed figure is workable on the front end of a 5.5-furlong sprint. The 4/1 morning line makes her slightly short for a show-only play, but she earns her spot as the third horse in a trifecta beneath the top two.

Race 7

12:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

One of the tightest races on the card — Valiant Son, Poseidon's Law, and Rogue Legend are separated by just 1.27 rating points at the top, setting up a genuine three-way battle in this turf sprint allowance.

win7Valiant SonML 10/1

Valiant Son edges this race by the thinnest of margins at 76.88, and at 10/1 on the morning line he's a legitimate overlay given that he rates as the top horse. Juan Hernandez rides for trainer Blaine Wright, and a 30% career win rate means this horse has a real knack for finishing the job. His 57 average speed figure matches the top of the field and his wide post (7-hole) in a five-furlong turf sprint isn't ideal, but the price more than compensates for it.

place4Poseidon's LawML 3/1

Poseidon's Law is essentially a co-top horse at 76.87 — one one-hundredth of a rating point separates him from our win pick — and at 3/1 he's the morning line second choice. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo has him ready with Emisael Jaramillo up, and his 58 average speed figure is the highest in the entire field. A 33% career win rate adds to the confidence — this is a horse that knows how to win, and at 3/1 he's a natural place underlier and a strong exacta key.

show1Rogue LegendML 8/1

Rogue Legend rounds out a compelling top three at 75.61 for Philip D'Amato, one of Del Mar's sharpest turf trainers. Antonio Fresu gets the call, and a 57 average speed figure matches the win pick at the top of the speed ratings. D'Amato running in a turf sprint allowance is always worth respecting — this trainer doesn't send horses out unprepared on the grass. At 8/1, Rogue Legend is a solid show hedge and a key part of any trifecta construction.

Race 8

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Emma G enters this claiming sprint as a massive morning-line overlay — her 73.96 rating leads the field despite 12/1 odds, and our analysis sees real value hiding in plain sight against a chalky public choice.

win5Emma GML 12/1

Emma G is the best-rated horse in this race at 73.96 yet goes off at 12/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of gap between public perception and TrackWiz analysis that makes for an exciting value play. Trainer Edward Freeman sends her out with Cesar Belmont, and a 50% career win rate is flat-out impressive for a claiming-level runner. Her 54 average speed figure isn't the highest in the field, but the rating tells us she's been doing things right, and at those odds she's worth a win bet beyond just exotics.

place3Spotted HazeML 5/2

Spotted Haze is the public's 5/2 choice and grades out second at 71.51 for Jeff Mullins with Juan Hernandez riding. A 40% career win rate — one of the highest in this field — backs up the public support, and a 55 average speed figure gives him a slight edge on the pure speed numbers. He's a legitimate contender, but at 5/2 the value is thin compared to Emma G — use him in exactas underneath her rather than on top.

show6DonttellourwivesML 5/1

Donttellourwives draws Joel Rosario for trainer Francisco Rodriguez and rates third in the field at 70.47 — within spitting distance of the top two. The 5/1 morning line offers some value, and while a 10% career win rate is modest, having Rosario in the irons gives any horse an automatic upgrade in terms of placement and pace judgment. He rounds out a trifecta combination nicely behind Emma G and Spotted Haze.

Race 9

1:10 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

Formidable Man enters as the odds-on choice in this turf stakes and his credentials back it up — but Almendares at 8/1 is the overlay of the race, rating just 0.63 points behind the favorite with a massive price discrepancy.

win8Formidable ManML 7/5

Formidable Man is the 7/5 favorite and our win pick for good reason — an 80.42 TrackWiz rating, a 50% career win rate, and John Velazquez in the irons for Michael McCarthy is about as formidable a combination as this stakes field will see. His 55 average speed figure matches the field, but in stakes company it's the overall profile that matters, and this horse has it all. The short price is what it is — when the numbers align this clearly, you play the horse.

place4AlmendaresML 8/1

Almendares is the value play of this entire stakes race at 8/1. His 79.79 TrackWiz rating is essentially a dead heat with the favorite — 0.63 points of separation — yet the morning line offers more than four times the return. Antonio Fresu rides for Philip D'Amato, one of the elite turf trainers on the West Coast, and an 18% career win rate in stakes company is respectable. If Formidable Man gets caught in traffic or hits any trouble at 1 1/8 miles, Almendares is right there to pounce.

show5Gold PhoenixML 3/1

Gold Phoenix is the 3/1 second choice in the wagering and posts a 63.23 rating with a 30% career win rate for trainer Philip D'Amato — who now has two horses in this race. Hector Berrios rides, and in a 9-horse stakes field at a classic distance, a 30% win rate and a double-digit rating gap between this horse and the mid-field tell a clear story. He's the chalk show play and a natural fit in trifectas with the top two.

Race 10

1:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Mici's Express owns the top rating in this 11-horse claiming mile but faces legitimate pressure from an interesting cast — Cupid's Crusader grades out second at nearly the same level, and Pioneer Prince gives the exotics real depth.

win8Mici's ExpressML 4/1

Mici's Express tops this claiming field with an 83.10 TrackWiz rating and draws Kazushi Kimura — the meet's most consistent rider — for trainer Isidro Tamayo. At 4/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse who clearly outrates the field on our numbers. His 53 average speed figure is modest, but claiming horses win on consistency and positioning, not raw speed — and everything about this horse's profile says he belongs on top.

place2Cupid's CrusaderML 8/1

Cupid's Crusader rates second in this field at 79.79 for trainer Genaro Vallejo, who also runs Oobubbakayo here — a dual-entry that always raises eyebrows. Edgar Payeras rides, and a 54 average speed figure gives him a slight edge over the win pick on raw numbers. At 8/1 on the morning line despite being our second-rated horse, Cupid's Crusader is a clear overlay and a strong place and exacta play underneath Mici's Express.

show11Pioneer PrinceML 4/1

Pioneer Prince rates third in the field at 76.02 for Doug O'Neill with Emisael Jaramillo up — a sharp trainer-jockey combination that performs well in claiming routes at Del Mar. His 55 average speed figure is the highest in the field, which matters in a one-mile dirt race where sustainable pace is essential. At 4/1 he's attractively priced given his standing in our ratings, and he rounds out the trifecta structure as a confident show selection.

Race 11

2:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The finale is a deep turf mile allowance that comes down to a coin flip at the top — Goje and Ryan's Girl are separated by just 0.35 rating points, setting up a juicy exacta matchup to close out the card.

win5GojeML 7/2

Goje edges this race by the slimmest of margins at 84.52, and Antonio Fresu gets the mount for trainer George Papaprodromou — a pairing with strong turf credentials at Del Mar. His 55 average speed figure is solid, and a 20% career win rate suggests consistency rather than flukiness. At 7/2 on the morning line, Goje is fairly priced as the top-rated horse, and the fractional edge over Ryan's Girl is enough to make him our win selection in what shapes up as a two-horse race at the top.

place2Ryan's GirlML 5/1

Ryan's Girl is a 34% career winner — the highest rate among any horse in this race — and her 84.17 TrackWiz rating is separated from Goje's by just 0.35 points. Kazushi Kimura takes the mount for trainer Genaro Vallejo, and the combination of her elite win rate and a live jockey at 5/1 on the morning line makes her a compelling place play and a strong exacta partner with Goje. The two-horse exacta box here is a natural.

show8Newport DreamzML 8/1

Newport Dreamz rates third in this 12-horse allowance field at 69.34 for trainer Tim Yakteen with Welfin Orantes aboard. A 20% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure both put him in the conversation for a piece of the prize, and at 8/1 on the morning line there's genuine value in slotting him third in trifectas. Yakteen-trained horses in evening turf allowances at Del Mar tend to be ready — factor that in when building your closing-race tickets.

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Bottom line: this is a deep, playable card at one of the best tracks in the country on a gorgeous summer afternoon. Van Gogh Style in Race 2 is our cleanest free play, Candy Bar opens the card with value at 7/2, and the Stakes in Race 9 is the centerpiece worth building your day around. For the full picture — including our longshot targets and late Pick 4 ticket — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Don't handicap the whole card blind. Go premium and get every edge.

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