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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

July 25, 202611 racesAll Del Mar picks

It's a gorgeous Saturday at Del Mar — partly cloudy skies, 81°F, and a breeze off the Pacific that makes this place feel like nowhere else in American racing. Conditions are about as close to ideal as you'll get, and the racing office has put together an 11-race card that gives everyone something to get excited about.

Three stakes races anchor the afternoon — a turf mile in Race 3, a five-furlong turf sprint in Race 9, and a six-furlong dirt stakes in Race 10 — giving the card a legitimate big-day feel. The turf course looks to be in strong shape under these mild conditions, and with four turf routes on the program, grass form is going to be a central theme all afternoon.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all 11 races. Races 1, 2, and 3 are open to everyone — we'll get you started with three solid plays from the jump. The rest of the card is available to subscribers, and today's program is exactly the kind of card where locking in a multi-race ticket early pays off.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden optional claimer on the dirt sprint where the morning line is all over the map — TrackWiz numbers tell a different story than the oddsmakers, with a clear top-rated horse flying under the radar at 6/1.

win2Cammy's GirlML 6/1

Cammy's Girl tops our ratings at 82.71 — that's a meaningful edge in a field where the next-best horse checks in at 73.72. Trained by Daniel Dunham and piloted by Kazushi Kimura, who has been one of the sharpest riders at Del Mar, she carries an average speed figure of 54 in a race where several rivals show no speed figure history at all. At 6/1 on the morning line, she's undervalued relative to her TrackWiz score, and that's the kind of gap that creates real value in maiden races.

place6Smokin Hot StuffML 7/2

Smokin Hot Stuff rates second in the field at 73.72 with a 53 average speed figure, and trainer George Papaprodromou has a reputation for having horses ready to run first out. Umberto Rispoli in the irons is another positive — he's a polished rider who rarely wastes a race — and at 7/2, this one could easily be the favorite by post time. If Cammy's Girl hits the board, Smokin Hot Stuff has the profile to land right behind her.

show7Kinzlee'scharismaML 4/1

Kinzlee'scharisma slots third in our ratings at 71.41 and ties for the field's best average speed figure at 55, which is encouraging in a dirt sprint. The 4/1 morning line reflects public respect, and trainer Daniel M. Jensen keeps a consistent barn. She's a solid exacta and trifecta anchor given her combination of speed and ratings support.

Race 2

9:32 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Thirteen horses entered in a full-field maiden claimer going six furlongs on the dirt — Treximo's TrackWiz rating stands well clear of the pack, but there's a cluster of live contenders lurking in double-digit post positions that could complicate the exotics.

win6TreximoML 4/1

Treximo earns a 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a comfortable margin — and posts a 55 average speed figure to match. Trainer Ryan Hanson sends him out with Adrian Escobedo up, and the morning line of 4/1 is fair given his separation from the competition. In maiden claiming company, a horse this far clear on our model is exactly the kind of play you want to center your tickets around.

place10Bucks ActionML 8/1

Bucks Action is an interesting underneath play at 8/1 — his 64.04 rating slots him second in the field and trainer Robert B. Hess Jr. knows how to spot horses in the right spot. The 51 average speed figure is a touch lower than ideal for this group, but his class profile relative to the rest of the field makes him a credible place contender. The price makes him worth including in exactas.

show8H Q WilsonML 12/1

H Q Wilson checks in at 63.34 on our ratings scale with a 54 average speed figure, and the Philip D'Amato connection is worth noting — D'Amato routinely fires firsters and drops into this level with horses that are ready. At 12/1 on the morning line, he's a strong exotics inclusion for trifecta players looking for a deeper price in the show spot.

Race 3

10:04 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A stakes mile on the turf that features some genuine class, headlined by a John Sadler trainee posting the top TrackWiz number — but a Richard Mandella runner with a proven 36% career win rate complicates the pace picture and makes this more than a one-horse show.

win3CertitudeML 9/2

Certitude sits at the top of our ratings with an 84.90 score, pairs that with a 57 average speed figure — the best in the field — and carries a 22% career win rate into a stakes spot. Joel Rosario is as good as it gets for a turf mile, and trainer John W. Sadler's record on grass at Del Mar is consistently strong. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's mild overlay value here for a horse whose numbers say he's the best in the race.

place1May Day ReadyML 7/2

May Day Ready brings a 36% career win rate — the second-highest in the field — which signals a horse that competes consistently and hits the board often. Kazushi Kimura keeps the mount for Richard Mandella, a Hall of Fame trainer who rarely shows up in stakes company without a plan. A 68.17 TrackWiz rating and 54 average speed figure won't light the world on fire, but a horse this accustomed to winning should land on the board.

show8Baltic FireML 6/1

Baltic Fire at 6/1 is an appealing third-position play with a 25% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure that matches the better horses in this field. Jeff Mullins sends him out with Kyle Frey, and his 60.89 rating is respectable in stakes company. Trifecta players should have him underneath — he's consistent enough to hit the board at a price that inflates the payouts.

Our three free races today cover the first three on the card — a pair of maiden dirt sprints to kick things off, followed by the afternoon's first stakes on the turf mile. Cammy's Girl in Race 1 is one of the more intriguing names on the board at 6/1 morning line — that's legitimate overlay territory if our rating of 82.71 holds up under scrutiny. Treximo in Race 2 comes in as the 4/1 morning line second choice in a maiden claimer, but our numbers peg him as the top horse in the field. And in Race 3, the stakes mile on the turf, Certitude is the play at 9/2 — a solid number for a horse our model rates near the top of the card's early stakes action.

One angle to keep in mind across these first two dirt sprints: watch how the track plays in the early going. Del Mar's main track can develop a speed bias as the afternoon heats up, and getting a read on inside vs. outside positioning in Races 1 and 2 will pay dividends when you're handicapping the dirt races later in the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Bob Baffert brings two horses to a first-level maiden sprint — Domus and Nayar — and they dominate a field that's largely debut or first-time starters with thin paper, making this look like an in-house decision between two powerhouse connections.

win2DomusML 2/1

Domus gets the nod as our top pick with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and the backing of trainer Bob Baffert, who wins at elite rates with first-out juveniles on the dirt. Juan J. Hernandez takes the mount — an excellent pairing for a short sprint like 5.5 furlongs where pace and early position matter. The 2/1 morning line makes this the clear public choice, and the Baffert debut angle has teeth in this spot.

place7NayarML 5/2

Nayar, also trained by Baffert but ridden by Joel Rosario, checks in at a 57.50 rating with a 56 average speed figure — one tick better than stablemate Domus on the speed side. When Baffert fills two spots in a maiden sprint, both horses often run well, and Rosario's presence suggests this one is meant to fire. At 5/2, the place payoff on Nayar should be solid if Domus controls the front.

show5Midnight OvationML 4/1

Midnight Ovation at 4/1 is the only horse outside the Baffert barn with a posted average speed figure (56), and trainer Peter Miller has a strong Del Mar record with young horses. Kazushi Kimura keeps the mount, adding another quality rider to the mix. If the Baffert pair run into each other early or have any trouble, Midnight Ovation is sitting just off the pace with legitimate ability.

Race 5

11:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A competitive turf mile in allowance optional claiming company where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses — Warm Sun and Brew and Steak Fries — are separated by fewer than four points, setting up a genuine head-to-head battle with value lurking underneath.

win6Warm Sun and BrewML 5/2

Warm Sun and Brew leads our ratings at 86.36 — the highest number on the entire card today — and pairs that with the field's top average speed figure of 57. Trainer Mark Glatt is dangerous in this spot, and Antonio Fresu has been a reliable turf rider at this meet. The 5/2 morning line is reasonable given the dominance of her TrackWiz score, and a 20% career win rate suggests she's been knocking on the door.

place5Steak FriesML 6/1

Steak Fries is right there behind our top pick at 82.71, earns a 56 average speed figure, and gets Joel Rosario — one of the best turf riders in the country — to steer him around a one-mile oval. Trainer Craig Anthony Lewis has him fit and ready, and a 20% career win rate mirrors the top pick's consistency. At 6/1, there's genuine value in the place pool here.

show8ChromeflashML 3/1

Chromeflash comes in at 60.19 on our ratings and has a 15% career win rate, which is solid for this type. Trainer Paula S. Capestro sends him out with Hector Isaac Berrios, and the 3/1 morning line reflects respectable public confidence. As a show play or an underneath exotic piece, Chromeflash offers a bridge between the top two and the rest of the field.

Race 6

11:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A 14-horse claiming sprint with significant spread in quality — two horses at the top of the TrackWiz ratings are well clear of the rest, while a mob of mid-tier contenders battle for the show spot and complicate the trifecta.

win14Tate BatzML 4/1

Tate Batz tops our ratings at 85.62 and carries a 54 average speed figure into 6.5 furlongs of dirt — a distance that rewards early speed and tactical positioning. Trainer Doug F. O'Neill pairs him with Emisael Jaramillo, and O'Neill has a knack for dropping horses into the right claiming spot to fire. At 4/1, Tate Batz profiles as a legitimate win contender whose numbers are simply better than the field.

place7Shady StripesML 3/1

Shady Stripes rates second at 77.38 with a 55 average speed figure and a 14% career win rate — steady, not spectacular, but consistent enough to be dangerous. Trainer Jeff Bonde sends him out with Edwin A. Maldonado, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the public already respects him. In a race this large, his combination of above-average speed and ratings puts him comfortably in the place picture.

show2Violences OhrML 6/1

Violences Ohr clocks in at a 74.33 rating with a 55 average speed figure, and while her 7% career win rate is modest, her overall form numbers are better than her win percentage suggests. Trainer Jesus J. Uranga has her at 6/1, and Edgar Payeras is a competent pilot in a spot like this. As the third-best-rated horse in a wide field, she's an attractive trifecta underneath at a generous price.

Race 7

12:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Two horses — Ventry Strand and Known Idea — are separated by less than one point at the very top of the TrackWiz ratings in a turf mile allowance, setting up a potential duel between a John Sadler trainee and a George Papaprodromou runner with legitimate pace and late-kick weapons behind them.

win10Ventry StrandML 7/2

Ventry Strand earns a 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the best in the race by a hair — and brings a 33% career win rate that speaks to a horse who knows how to finish the job. Trainer John W. Sadler is outstanding with turf routers, and Umberto Rispoli is an elite grass rider whose style suits a one-mile setup perfectly. At 7/2, the morning line is fair and TrackWiz backs up the public preference.

place1Known IdeaML 4/1

Known Idea sits just below at 85.62 with an 18% career win rate and gets Antonio Fresu for trainer George Papaprodromou — a pairing that has been quietly effective at this meet. His 55 average speed figure matches the top pick, and an inside post draws well at Del Mar's turf course where the rail is often favorable early. If Ventry Strand goes to the front, Known Idea has the rating to run him down or at least secure the place.

show9Double JabML 5/1

Double Jab offers a compelling show play at 5/1 — the field's highest average speed figure at 57 and a 79.94 TrackWiz rating make him legitimately dangerous. Trainer Andy Mathis has him at a fair price, and Armando Ayuso is comfortable on the turf. The 12% career win rate is the only blemish, but his raw speed numbers suggest he hits the board more than that mark implies.

Race 8

12:40 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

March of Time enters this dirt mile allowance with a 50% career win rate and the field's top TrackWiz number — he's the class standout — but Midway Lane at 8/1 with a 40% win rate and strong connections gives this more than a single-horse look.

win3March of TimeML 7/2

March of Time is the standout here — a 86.35 TrackWiz rating, a 56 average speed figure, and a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate that makes him one of the most accomplished horses on today's entire card. Bob Baffert saddles him with Juan J. Hernandez, and that's about as strong a trainer-jockey combination as you'll find at any track. The 7/2 morning line might actually be a touch low given how dominant his numbers are, but he's still the play.

place9Midway LaneML 8/1

Midway Lane at 8/1 is the value underneath with a 40% career win rate — second-best in the field — and a 74.69 TrackWiz rating that easily clears the mid-pack. Antonio Fresu rides for John W. Sadler, and a 54 average speed figure is workmanlike for this distance. In exactas, pairing him below March of Time at 8/1 could produce a genuinely rewarding payoff.

show7IndispensableML 4/1

Indispensable earns a 65.08 rating and gets Joel Rosario for trainer John W. Sadler — a second look for the Sadler barn in the same race. An 11% career win rate is modest, but his 54 average speed figure and the quality of the connections suggest he won't be far off the pace. At 4/1, he's an accessible show play that won't destroy exotics payouts the way March of Time might.

Race 9

1:10 AM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

A 10-horse turf sprint stakes where our top pick is a genuine overlay at 8/1 despite posting the field's highest TrackWiz rating — and a horse listed at even-money without jockey or trainer information adds an unusual wild card to the mix.

win3Can't SleepML 8/1

Can't Sleep tops our ratings at 79.79 in a stakes turf sprint with a 57 average speed figure and a standout 42% career win rate that ties for the best in the field. Trainer Carla Gaines has her in top form with Emisael Jaramillo aboard, and for a horse this accomplished to open at 8/1 suggests the market hasn't caught up with her numbers. That's a legitimate overlay, and five furlongs on the grass at Del Mar should suit her style.

place7Lee's Baby GirlML EVN

Lee's Baby Girl carries a 74.23 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate, drawing the even-money line on the morning sheet — noting that jockey and trainer information wasn't available at time of publication, so confirm those details at the window. Her rating alone justifies a place ticket, and as the public choice, she's likely to set the pace scenario that shapes the race for everyone else.

show2Bit's Tiger MagicML 4/1

Bit's Tiger Magic rates at 65.68 with the field's best average speed figure at 58 and a 42% career win rate — matching Can't Sleep's mark for the highest in the field. Trainer Peter Miller sends her out with Juan J. Hernandez, and five furlongs of turf suits a horse with this kind of raw speed. At 4/1, she's a natural show play and an attractive piece in exacta boxes underneath our top two.

Race 10

1:40 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A loaded dirt stakes at six furlongs featuring a horse with a 66% career win rate alongside a D'Amato trainee whose TrackWiz number clears the field — pace will be honest with this group, and the stretch run should be a true battle.

win5StrongholdML 4/1

Stronghold leads our ratings at 81.91 with a 35% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure in a six-furlong stakes where every horse in the field has genuine credentials. Trainer Philip D'Amato doubles up his stable entry here, and Antonio Fresu gets the call on what appears to be the preferred runner. The 4/1 morning line is reasonable value for a horse whose TrackWiz number clears the field.

place2ListenupshanceML 8/1

Listenupshance at 8/1 is a genuine overlay — a 79.79 rating, a 57 average speed figure tied for the field's best, and a 27% career win rate all say he belongs right in this mix. Doug O'Neill sends him out with Emisael Jaramillo, and O'Neill has a history of landing upset prices in stakes company at Del Mar. If the morning line holds, this is one of the better value plays on the card.

show1Maximum BourbonML 7/2

Maximum Bourbon is the interesting underneath piece — a 75.57 TrackWiz rating, the field's best career win rate at 66%, and Joel Rosario on his back for Philip D'Amato. The 7/2 morning line makes him a public go-to, and a 57 average speed figure ties for the fastest in the race. His win rate alone suggests he doesn't finish out of the money often, making him a reliable show play and exacta anchor.

Race 11

2:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse turf route to close the card where Take Another Card separates from the pack on our ratings, and a trio of horses listed at even-money without assigned jockeys or trainers add unpredictable elements that could scramble the exotics.

win10Take Another CardML 7/2

Take Another Card posts an 84.02 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the next confirmed competitor — and a 57 average speed figure that's among the best in the field. Simon Callaghan sends him out with Umberto Rispoli, one of the sharpest turf riders in the country, and a 12% career win rate in a 14-horse field is respectable. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a solid play in a race that has some fog around the even-money runners.

place5Miso PhansyML 6/1

Miso Phansy rates at 82.71 — second on our board — with a 30% career win rate that stands out in a field this large. Trainer Leonard Powell has her at 6/1 with Armando Ayuso up, and her combination of a high rating and proven win efficiency makes her a strong place candidate. Given the uncertainty around several horses in this field, her upside-to-price ratio in the place pool is compelling.

show7America's MarkML 5/1

America's Mark checks in at a 79.50 rating with the field's best career win rate among horses with full information at 40% — that's a horse who consistently competes at a high level. Trainer Mike Puype sends him out with Hector Isaac Berrios at 5/1, and the 56 average speed figure is right there with the best in the race. For trifecta construction in a race this large, he's an ideal show piece at a price that should pay well.

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Bottom line: Del Mar is putting on a show today. Cammy's Girl, Treximo, and Certitude are your free best bets to start the afternoon, and the turf program gives the card serious depth from Race 3 all the way through Race 11. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and our take on Can't Sleep in the Race 9 sprint — subscribers have everything waiting. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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