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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — September 7, 2026

September 7, 202611 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

Happy Labor Day weekend, horse players. Colonial Downs is putting on a show today — 11 races, six of them stakes, and a card that leans heavily on the turf. Conditions are about as good as it gets: partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 79°F should keep the Colonial grass course playing fast and fair all afternoon.

This is genuinely one of the better cards you'll see at Colonial all season. Stakes action stretches from a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint all the way out to a mile and a half marathon, giving every style of player something to sink their teeth into. Whether you're building an exacta in the early claiming race or hunting a pick-4 through the stakes-packed back half of the card, today has it all.

TrackWiz analysis covers all 11 races. The first three are on the house — after that, subscribers get the full breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open turf claiming mile with a clear top-three separated from the rest of the field — but the order among them is far from settled, making exotics the play here.

win3Flamenco StarML 3/1

Flamenco Star tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 — the highest mark in the field by a meaningful margin — and draws the rail-friendly post 3 with Paco Lopez in the irons. Lopez is one of the sharpest turf riders in the Mid-Atlantic, and trainer Jorge Duarte, Jr. keeps this one competitive. At 3/1 on the morning line, you're not getting a gift, but the ratings edge is real and the price is fair for what shapes up as the class of the field.

place5Boss LilyML 9/2

Boss Lily checks in with a strong 82.56 TrackWiz rating and gets the Jevian Toledo-Phil Schoenthal connection, a pairing that consistently shows up in the money at Colonial. Her 7% career win rate may look modest, but in a field this deep, posting and placing is the expectation — she's a rock-solid exotic anchor at 9/2.

show8He's a CharmerML 5/2

He's a Charmer (78.95 rating) is the third leg of what looks like a formful top trio, and Jareth Loveberry gives him a competent pilot at 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Ethan W. West also saddles Mo Can Dance in this race, so he's got a strong read on the conditions. At short odds he's not a value play, but his rating supports inclusion in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Race 2

4:27 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight on the dirt sprinting 6½ furlongs, and the field splits cleanly between one dominant top-rated horse and a cluster of hopefuls looking to steal a slice of the pie.

win2EleosML EVN

Eleos is the standout with a 90 TrackWiz rating — a full 35 points clear of the next-best finisher — and draws even money on the morning line, which tells you the market agrees. Axel Concepcion gets the call for trainer Carlos Munoz, who also sends out Fanti in the same race, showing confidence in his stable's turf of the dirt sprint. Among maiden fields, this kind of ratings gap is rare; Eleos is as close to a must-use as you'll find.

place6Overtime RulesML 4/1

Overtime Rules (55.0 rating) brings the second-highest mark in the race and the top average speed figure at 57 — the best in the field. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is a consistent performer with first-time starters and maiden types, and Paco Lopez in the saddle is never a throwaway. At 4/1, this is a legitimate place contender who could surprise in the exacta.

show7Soupersonic DancerML 5/1

Soupersonic Dancer posts a 53.33 rating and carries the Mark Casse barn's colors, with Sonny Leon up — a combination that knows how to place horses in maiden company. No published average speed figure is available, which means this one may be hiding some workouts that haven't shown up in the box score yet. At 5/1, he's a reasonable third wheel on exotic tickets for bettors looking to widen their coverage.

Race 3

4:57 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 13-horse maiden turf mile with ratings clustered tightly near the top — the kind of race where post position and pace scenario could matter as much as pure ability.

win12HardscapeML 4/1

Hardscape leads our TrackWiz ratings at 55.0 and shows a solid average speed of 56, matching the top mark among the contenders. Trainer Keri Brion also runs Springtime Diva in this spot, but Hardscape draws the more favorable outside post at 12 with Samuel Marin, who's been active and sharp around Colonial. In a maiden turf mile where pace can collapse, a horse with proven speed figures and a strong barn angle is worth leaning on.

place1Silver RoadML 5/1

Silver Road (53.33 rating) gets the high-profile Brad H. Cox and Florent Geroux combination — two names that show up in the winner's circle far too often to ignore in maiden company. No prior speed figure is listed, suggesting this could be a first-out runner with strong works behind the scenes. At 5/1, Cox-Geroux first-starters on turf are a reliable angle worth respecting in your place and exacta plays.

show11Gold BrewML 5/1

Gold Brew matches Silver Road's 53.33 rating and posts a 56 average speed — one of the better figures in this crowded field. Sonny Leon handles the mount for trainer W. Robert Bailes, and the 5/1 morning line offers legitimate overlay potential if the wagering public gets distracted by the sheer size of the field. As a show anchor in a trifecta, Gold Brew's combination of speed and rating makes him a smart hedge.

The free portion of today's card covers Races 1 through 3, and there's a clear thread connecting our top picks: horses who figure to get comfortable trips on a turf course that should reward front-runners and stalkers alike. Flamenco Star opens the card in the claiming mile on grass — at 3/1 on the morning line with an 87 TrackWiz rating, the value is real. From there, Eleos draws our eye in the 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on dirt, checking in as the even-money morning-line favorite with a 90 rating — the top mark among our three free top picks. In Race 3, the turf maiden mile gets more wide-open, which is why Hardscape at 4/1 carries some intrigue even with a modest 55 rating in a field full of question marks.

The consistent theme: today's early turf races set up well for horses who can get a clean trip and accelerate through the stretch. Keep that pace scenario in mind as you work through your tickets on Races 1 and 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:27 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile where the morning-line favorite looks vulnerable against a pair of lightly raced horses carrying much stronger TrackWiz ratings — this could be a sharp bettors' race.

win7ZencatML 10/1

Zencat is our top pick at 10/1 with a sparkling 76.88 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this field — and Sonny Leon in the irons for trainer Irvin G. Flores. At double-digit odds while posting the best analytical number, this is exactly the kind of morning-line overlay that TrackWiz analysis is built to find. A 54 average speed rounds out a profile that looks well-suited to a one-mile turf route, and the value case here is compelling.

place2Paid VacationML 8/1

Paid Vacation checks in at 70.99 — second-best in the field — with Jorge Ruiz up for trainer Timothy L. Keefe at 8/1. His 54 average speed is consistent with the top contenders, and the price suggests the market is underrating him significantly relative to his analytical profile. He's a prime candidate to hit the board and deliver real exacta value.

show3FosrocML 4/5

Fosroc is the 4/5 morning-line favorite trained by the accomplished Wesley A. Ward, one of the game's elite conditioners for turf runners, and Paco Lopez provides no downgrade in the saddle. His 60.0 TrackWiz rating trails both Zencat and Paid Vacation, which is the core reason we've slotted him third — the market price doesn't reflect the ratings gap. Ward's turf juveniles often outrun their numbers, so a show position on Fosroc makes sense as insurance even if we're skeptical of his favorite's price.

Race 5

5:58 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep allowance mile on the dirt where the top of the field separates cleanly by rating, but a pair of live longshots lurk with win percentages that demand attention in the exacta.

win5EdgyML 8/5

Edgy is the clear top-rated horse at 89.12 and draws the 8/5 morning line that the market has correctly identified. With a 25% career win rate and Sheldon Russell up for trainer Brittany T. Russell — a husband-wife combo that knows this horse better than anyone — the connections are tight and the motivation is high. The 55 average speed is right in line with the best in the field, and an allowance mile on the Colonial dirt sets up perfectly for a horse of this profile.

place6Break OutML 7/2

Break Out is a fascinating place pick at 7/2 with a career win rate of 35% — the highest among the legitimate contenders — and an 82.51 TrackWiz rating that confirms he belongs right near the top. Sonny Leon takes the mount for Michael B. Campbell, who also saddles Baytown Parfait, meaning the barn has a strong feel for the pace scenario. A horse winning 35% of the time is a legitimate threat to win, not just place, so don't be surprised if the order flips on us.

show9Ready as EverML 8/1

Ready as Ever catches the eye with a 40% career win rate — the highest of any horse in the field — and a respectable 74.02 TrackWiz rating that slots him solidly in the top three. Mychel J. Sanchez gets the mount for trainer Jamie Ness, and at 8/1 on the morning line, the price is generous for a horse whose win percentage screams 'live contender.' He's the kind of show anchor who could easily outperform his slot and land in the exacta, making him a must-use in multi-leg tickets.

Race 6

6:31 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A sprint turf stakes at 5½ furlongs where the betting public will gravitate toward the short-priced favorites, but our analysis points to a clear overlay in the field — setting up a potential value score.

win5Bee CrazyML 4/1

Bee Crazy leads the field with a 74.82 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the next-rated horses — and posts a 56 average speed that's competitive on a 5½-furlong turf sprint. Samuel Marin gets the call for trainer Kelsey Danner, and the 4/1 morning line offers genuine value given the ratings separation. A 33% career win rate in stakes company is nothing to dismiss, and Bee Crazy shapes up as the logical pace presser in what looks like a speed-favoring scenario.

place7Omaha SpiritML 2/1

Omaha Spirit goes postward at 2/1 for the powerhouse Wesley A. Ward with Paco Lopez up — connections that have won this kind of turf sprint race dozens of times. A 57 average speed ties for the top mark in the field, and a perfect career win rate (however small the sample) signals an unbeaten record heading in. The concern is price: at 2/1, you're paying chalk money for a horse our ratings have third. Use him underneath rather than on top.

show4ExcessifML 5/2

Excessif (57.5 rating) ties for the top average speed in the field at 57 and draws the H. Graham Motion barn — one of the more respected turf outfits in the country — with Jorge Ruiz up at 5/2. A 50% career win rate is eye-catching, and the price, while not generous, reflects some market respect. He's the logical show anchor for bettors building a trifecta around Bee Crazy on top.

Race 7

7:06 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A turf stakes at 1 1/16 miles where a short-priced favorite is being asked to carry a heavy wagering load against a rival whose TrackWiz rating tells a different story — the market and the numbers aren't aligned.

win2Perfect DreamML 9/2

Perfect Dream tops our TrackWiz ratings at 67.59 and goes at 9/2 for trainer Jorge Delgado with Chantal Sutherland in the saddle — an underrated combination that consistently finds the winner's circle on turf routes. A 33% career win rate in stakes company gives you real confidence this horse can handle the level, and the 53 average speed is in line with a field that shapes up as ground-saving and tactical. At nearly 5-1, Perfect Dream is our pick to beat the morning-line favorite.

place6InductionML 6/5

Induction opens as the 6/5 favorite for trainer H. Graham Motion with Jorge Ruiz up, and a 100% career win rate demands respect even if the sample is small. His 59.67 TrackWiz rating trails Perfect Dream but leads the rest of the field, and Motion is one of the craftiest turf conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic. He's the chalk for a reason — use him underneath in exactas and trifectas where the value is better.

show4PopcornML 5/1

Popcorn brings a 100% career win rate like Induction and posts a 53.33 TrackWiz rating with a 54 average speed for trainer Jonathan Thomas. Axel Concepcion is an aggressive pilot who can be effective in the early going on a turf route, which matters at this distance. At 5/1, Popcorn is a legitimate third-place contender who could spice up trifecta payouts if the top two swap positions.

Race 8

7:42 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A full field of 11 battles it out in a 1⅛-mile turf stakes, and while a few horses draw market support, our top-rated horse offers value at a price that may not survive to post time.

win7Embrace TimeML 9/2

Embrace Time leads all comers with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating and a career win rate of 50% — the kind of stat that signals a horse who knows how to win when asked. Micah J. Husbands rides for Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., who has established himself as one of the sharper turf trainers in the country. The 55 average speed and 9/2 morning line represent solid value in a stakes field of this quality, and the ratings gap over the third-ranked horse is substantial enough to make Embrace Time our clear top selection.

place4Striking FinaleML 15/1

Striking Finale is the value play of the race at 15/1, checking in with a 69.07 TrackWiz rating — fourth-best in the field — that the market is drastically undervaluing. A 25% career win rate with a 54 average speed suggests a horse that competes consistently at this level, and trainer Nolan Ramsey with Diego A. Herrera up has the tools to make this work. If you're building a trifecta, Striking Finale at 15/1 is exactly the kind of live longshot that can balloon the payout.

show8Storm's WakeML 5/1

Storm's Wake rates at 63.99 with a 30% career win rate and posts a 55 average speed — matching the top figures in the field. Brian A. Lynch is a respected stakes trainer and Samuel Marin brings experience in these spots. At 5/1, Storm's Wake is the logical third option on most tickets and offers a fair price for a horse who figures to hit the board more often than not.

Race 9

8:18 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A massive 14-horse turf stakes at 1⅛ miles where the morning line is spread thin and the true contenders are separated more by our ratings than by the public's dollars — a race ripe for exacta and trifecta value.

win14SuperchargerML 5/2

Supercharger leads the field with a 73.15 TrackWiz rating and draws the morning-line chalk position at 5/2 for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who also saddles Dr. Agne in this race. Axel Concepcion is sharp and aggressive — exactly what you want in a 14-horse field where early position matters. A 50% career win rate and a 55 average speed back up the analytical case, and while 5/2 is not a big price, the ratings support a win-oriented approach.

place9ChambersvilleML 12/1

Chambersville is the value play on this ticket at 12/1 with a 65.87 TrackWiz rating — the second-highest in the field — and a 20% career win rate that understates his competitiveness at the stakes level. Kenneth G. McPeek is a Hall of Fame-caliber trainer who consistently places horses in graded company, and Emmanuel Esquivel provides a capable pilot. At double-digit odds with the second-best rating, Chambersville is a prime exacta candidate.

show5FuzzbusterML 15/1

Fuzzbuster draws 15/1 on the morning line despite a 65.03 TrackWiz rating that slots him third overall in the field — another market gap our analysis is flagging. Samuel Marin gets the mount for Victoria H. Oliver, and a 14% career win rate may look modest but a 55 average speed in a stacked 1⅛-mile turf field shows he can run. If Supercharger and Chambersville hit the top two spots, a Fuzzbuster show finish could yield meaningful trifecta returns.

Race 10

8:52 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

A rare 1½-mile turf test — the marathon of the meet — where stamina and pace management separate the contenders from the pretenders, and the even-money favorite has a legitimate challenger lurking at a much friendlier price.

win7Just a TouchML EVN

Just a Touch leads the TrackWiz ratings at 85.40 and draws even money on the morning line — the market has done the math here. Florent Geroux is one of the elite turf riders in the country and gives trainer Brad H. Cox yet another weapon; Cox is no stranger to winning marathons with distance-loving grass horses. A 35% career win rate rounds out a profile that screams 'top of the class,' and while the even-money price is short, the ratings justify the confidence.

place9CarcanoML 6/1

Carcano is the most intriguing horse on the ticket at 6/1 with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — just three points behind Just a Touch and a significant 23-point jump over the third-ranked runner. Axel Concepcion handles the mount for Victoria H. Oliver, and a 21% career win rate in routes suggests a horse who competes but hasn't always gotten the best of trips. At 6/1, Carcano represents outstanding place value and is the primary upset threat to the favorite.

show3CrisperML 15/1

Crisper is an intriguing third option at 15/1 with a 61.70 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate — respectable numbers for a horse the market has largely dismissed. Mychel J. Sanchez rides for trainer Tim Woolley, and the 55 average speed is among the better marks in this field. In a 1½-mile stamina test where pace can collapse late, a horse who rates quietly off the pace and finishes could catch tiring leaders for a show spot at a big price.

Race 11

9:28 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The nightcap is a 12-horse turf sprint stakes at 5½ furlongs, and the morning-line favorite doesn't match up with the top TrackWiz ratings — setting the stage for what could be one of the better value plays of the card.

win2Souper QuestML 10/1

Souper Quest opens at 10/1 with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — and teams with Sonny Leon for trainer Mark E. Casse, who also sends out Victory Achieved. Casse's decision to tab Leon for Souper Quest rather than the other entry is a subtle but telling signal about where the barn's confidence lies. A 33% career win rate and a blazing 58 average speed — among the top figures in the race — make Souper Quest our top selection in a race where the public money figures to go elsewhere.

place8Governor SamML 7/5

Governor Sam draws 7/5 on the morning line with Paco Lopez up for George Weaver, and the public won't be wrong to make him the favorite — a 35% career win rate and the top average speed figure in the field at 59 are genuinely elite numbers. The reason he's slotted place rather than win is purely the ratings: at 75.45, he trails Souper Quest by more than a point and a half. Use him underneath in exactas for a potentially juicy payout if the top choice runs him down.

show4Determined KingdomML 6/1

Determined Kingdom rates at 73.01 — third-best in the field — with a 32% career win rate and a 58 average speed that ties for the top mark alongside Souper Quest, Petcoff, and Louie the Sun King. Michael J. Trombetta is a shrewd conditioner in these sprint turf spots, and Mychel J. Sanchez provides a forward-moving ride that suits a 5½-furlong test. At 6/1, Determined Kingdom is the logical third leg of a trifecta and has the figures to outrun his position if the pace sets up favorably.

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Bottom line: today's Colonial Downs card is worth your full attention. Flamenco Star, Eleos, and Hardscape headline the free picks, while a deep stakes card — anchored by Just a Touch and Edgy — gives subscribers plenty of ammunition for multi-race wagers. It's a big afternoon on the Virginia turf. Full analysis for all 11 races is available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing — don't handicap the stakes blind.

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