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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — August 13, 2026

August 13, 202611 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

Clear skies and 84°F greet us at Colonial Downs this Thursday, and conditions couldn't be more inviting for what's shaping up to be a turf-dominated card. Seven of the eleven races are contested on the grass, which means surface form, turf pedigrees, and course familiarity are going to be doing a lot of the heavy lifting today.

We've got a full 11-race card to break down, ranging from maiden special weights to allowance company, with a handful of claiming races mixed in on both surfaces. The card opens with three back-to-back turf routes at 2¼ miles — a distance you don't see everywhere — before shifting to the dirt for the mid-card. It closes out with a stretch of turf sprints and routes that should produce some serious wagering action.

Our TrackWiz ratings span from the mid-50s up to a clean 90 on Race 11, where heavily-favored Italy draws plenty of attention at 4/5 on the morning line. There's value to be found throughout this card, including at least one big-price play our analysis has flagged mid-card.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight at 2 1/4 miles on the turf, where three horses cluster near the top of our ratings within 10 points of each other — the longshot angle is very much alive here.

win7RoundtopML 8/1

Roundtop earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 79.79, a meaningful gap above the rest of the contenders. Trainer Keri Brion sends him out with jockey Stephen Mulqueen aboard, a combination worth watching at this distance on the Colonial turf. At 8/1 on the morning line, you're getting legitimate top-rated ability at a price — that's where we want to be in maiden company over this kind of ground.

place6Give It a WhirlML 7/2

Give It a Whirl brings the best career win percentage in this field at 23%, which tells you this horse knows how to finish the job. Trainer Mark Beecher and jockey Graham Watters team up at a 7/2 price that still represents solid value given the horse's overall profile and a TrackWiz rating of 69.38. At 2 1/4 miles, proven winners stand out — and this one has been there before.

show5Day and AgeML 3/1

Day and Age checks in with a 69.05 rating and a 14% career win rate, backed by trainer Todd J. Wyatt and jockey Freddie Procter. With an average speed figure of 55 — the best posted figure among horses with recorded numbers — there's real late-running ability here to factor at a fair 3/1 price. A solid exotic underneath option in a race that figures to string out over this marathon distance.

Race 2

3:20 PM EDT

Handicap · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

The handicap at 2 1/4 miles on the turf sets up as a battle between two horses rated well clear of the field, with a morning-line favorite who may be underestimated and a key price play lurking at the top of our ratings.

win8Bright Eyed EagleML 6/1

Bright Eyed Eagle tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and goes at 6/1 on the morning line — a horse that merits far more respect than that price suggests. Trainer Katherine S. Neilson puts Jamie Bargary in the irons, a booking that signals the barn likes its chances. At this distance, a horse with the class edge in a handicap field is exactly the profile we want to anchor our ticket.

place5WhiskeyinthejaroML 4/1

Whiskeyinthejaro rates second-best in the field at 80.08 and brings a 16% career win rate to the table, which is respectable in a field this competitive. Mark Beecher trains and Dan Nevin rides, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this is a horse that could easily flip the result if Bright Eyed Eagle hits any traffic. Keep him on top in the exacta as well.

show1MissionaireML 2/1

Missionaire is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for good reason — a 21% career win rate is the best in the field, and the 54 average speed figure gives him legitimate race-to-race consistency. Neil R. Morris trains and Graham Watters rides, a stable connection that knows Colonial well. Even if the top two in our ratings shine, Missionaire's class and winning pedigree make him a near-lock for the superfecta.

Race 3

3:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

A well-structured allowance at 2 1/4 miles on the turf where the top of the market and the top of our ratings align — but a sneaky price play rated nearly as high as the favorite makes this a race worth attacking with exotics.

win6Hold OutML 2/1

Hold Out carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.11 and is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, so the public and our model are in agreement here. Trainer Meriwether Morris sends out Conor Tierney, and with a 19% career win rate and a top average speed figure of 55, this horse has the tools to wire this field over the long Colonial turf layout. At 2/1, the price isn't exciting, but the profile is hard to argue with.

place4Flash FrozenML 8/1

Flash Frozen is the sneaky price play in this spot — rated 79.79 by TrackWiz, just a hair behind the top choice, yet sitting at 8/1 on the morning line. That's a significant overlay for a horse with a remarkable 41% career win rate, the best among any horse in this race. Trainer Thomas Garner and jockey Evan Dwan combine on what could easily be the best-value ticket on the card.

show2FulmineoML 7/2

Fulmineo brings a 19% career win rate and a solid 77.78 TrackWiz rating, sitting third in our model behind only the top two. Trainer Julie Gomena and jockey Freddie Procter team up at a workable 7/2 morning line, and the 53 average speed figure shows consistent output. In a race where the top two may battle it out, Fulmineo is the natural beneficiary and a logical show/exotic play.

The first three races are free to all TrackWiz readers, and they make for a fascinating opening sequence. All three go 2¼ miles on the turf — a demanding test of stamina that filters out pretenders in a hurry. Roundtop opens the card at a juicy 8/1 morning line in a maiden special weight, and our rating of 79.79 suggests there's genuine upside here at a price the crowd may be underestimating. Race 2 shifts to handicap company, where Bright Eyed Eagle (6/1, rated 82.71) profiles as a compelling each-way play against a field likely to be compromised by the relentless pace that long turf routes can produce. Then in Race 3, Hold Out steps in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with an 82.11 TrackWiz rating — a number that backs up the chalk's status but leaves a little room to shop around.

The common thread across all three free races is that Colonial Downs' turf course at this distance rewards horses that settle well and have the stamina to grind through the final turn. Keep that pace scenario in mind — front-runners have a tough time going wire-to-wire at 2¼ miles, especially on a warm August afternoon.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

4:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers going 6 furlongs on the dirt can be unpredictable, but this one has a clear class of the field at the top of the betting — though two co-contenders at identical ratings make exacta combinations very playable.

win7BefuddledML 7/5

Befuddled draws the 7/5 morning-line favoritism and backs it up with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 59.33. Trainer Anthony Farrior and jockey Jeiron Barbosa are the connections to beat, and in a field of first-time or struggling maidens, even a modest edge in preparation and rating points can be decisive going 6 furlongs on the dirt. This is as clear a top choice as you'll find in maiden claiming company.

place2Alta Vista ChapelML 4/1

Alta Vista Chapel ties for second in our ratings at 55.00 and posts the best average speed figure among the co-contenders at 55, a tick above the field norm. Trainer John J. Robb and jockey Xavier Perez make a clean, professional pairing at a fair 4/1 price. In a race where maiden claimers are breaking their maiden for the first time, the horse with the best raw speed numbers often finds a way to hit the board.

show6Whacky WitchML 4/1

Whacky Witch matches Alta Vista Chapel's 55.00 TrackWiz rating and also shows a 54 average speed figure, making this effectively a coin flip for the second spot in our ratings. Trainer Anthony Farrior — who also saddles the top pick Befuddled — has a strong barn presence in this race, and a second entry from the same shedrow is always worth noting. At 4/1, Whacky Witch with jockey Jevian Toledo is a natural show/exacta inclusion.

Race 5

5:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A dirt-mile claiming sprint that sets up as a fascinating clash between the morning-line favorites and a TrackWiz value play rated well above her market price — this is the kind of race where our model really earns its keep.

win4Miss SerafinaML 12/1

Miss Serafina tops our TrackWiz ratings at 73.96 and is sitting at 12/1 on the morning line — that's a massive overlay for the horse our model likes best. Trainer Maria Bowersock puts Sonny Leon aboard, a rider who knows how to get horses home, and with a 14% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure, Miss Serafina has the raw ingredients to outrun that price considerably. This is our value play of the day in the claiming ranks.

place6Three Run BoltML 8/5

Three Run Bolt is the 8/5 second choice and rates second in our model at 71.60, making him the consensus contender you'd expect. A 18% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure show a horse who delivers regularly, and trainer Jose Antonio Vargas runs Jose E. Vargas in the irons for what looks like a well-prepped effort. He's a very fair win threat in his own right and the natural exacta backbone underneath Miss Serafina.

show1Ginger GirlML 9/5

Ginger Girl is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and carries a field-best 21% career win rate, so the public knows this one can win. The 52 average speed figure is a touch below the top contenders, and our model has her third, but in a small claiming field, favorites hit the board often enough that including her underneath makes strong exotic sense. Trainer Joanne Shankle and jockey Jevian Toledo form a sharp local combo.

Race 6

5:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint at 7 1/2 furlongs on the dirt where one horse stands dramatically clear of the field on our ratings — but the morning-line favorite looks like the most dangerous threat to spoil the upset.

win6Sweet LauraML 7/2

Sweet Laura is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — a full 24 points clear of the morning-line favorite and the highest mark in the race by a wide margin. A 29% career win rate is elite for this level, and trainer Jamie Ness has this horse primed with Mychel J. Sanchez up. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is one of the better-priced top picks on today's card — we're not shying away.

place5White RocksML 6/5

White Rocks is the 6/5 morning-line chalk and rates second on our model at 62.89, with a 16% career win rate and a consistent 54 average speed figure. Trainer Arnaud Delacour and jockey Samuel Marin form a polished pairing, and while our model slots White Rocks second, the public clearly sees this as a coin-flip race. In exactas, framing Sweet Laura over White Rocks makes a lot of sense.

show3DecadentML 9/2

Decadent slots in third on our model at 58.08 with a 20% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure — solid, consistent numbers for this level. Trainer Kenneth G. McPeek is a name that needs no introduction, and jockey Emmanuel Esquivel provides an experienced hand. At 9/2, this is a horse that won't go away cheaply and deserves a place in your tri/superfecta combinations.

Race 7

6:06 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A turf sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs featuring a deep field where two horses rated in the mid-to-high 80s are separated by significant daylight from the rest — but a 6/1 overlay in the middle of the pack adds legitimate exotic intrigue.

win8Ready for TroubleML 5/2

Ready for Trouble leads our TrackWiz ratings at 85.29 and is a very fair 5/2 on the morning line, making her a rare overlap between value and top model score. Trainer Jamie Ness teams up with jockey Jose E. Vargas, and an average speed figure of 56 ties her at the top of the speed numbers in this field. In a turf sprint where early position matters, a horse with that kind of raw speed backed by the top rating is our primary target.

place5Clay SoldierML 9/5

Clay Soldier rates second in the field at 77.90 and goes as the 9/5 morning-line second choice — so the market is aligned with our model here. The 57 average speed figure ties for the best in the field, and trainer Michael V. Simone sends out Samuel Marin in a confident booking. With a 15% career win rate and sharp speed numbers, Clay Soldier is the clear secondary threat and a strong exacta partner.

show10Bahamian MoonML 6/1

Bahamian Moon is the value piece in the exotic mix at 6/1 on the morning line, rating third on our model at 69.25. A 18% career win rate is solid for this level, and an average speed figure of 57 — the joint-best in the field — suggests this horse can match the top contenders on pure pace. Trainer Monica McGoey and jockey Luis Fuenmayor give her a capable handler, and she's a must-use in trifectas.

Race 8

6:37 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A large turf maiden claiming field at 1 1/16 miles where three horses cluster near the top of our ratings with strikingly similar marks — tight at the top, and the result could hinge on post position and trip luck.

win3Joy DivisionML 3/1

Joy Division tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.86 and goes at a fair 3/1 morning line with trainer Arnaud Delacour — a name synonymous with turf excellence — sending out jockey Jorge Ruiz. With an average speed figure of 53 and the top model score in a 12-horse maiden field, Joy Division has the profile of a horse ready to break through. In maiden claiming turf races, trainer class often separates the field, and Delacour is as strong as it gets.

place9TimestreamML 7/2

Timestream is just a whisker behind at 86.35 on our ratings — essentially a dead heat with Joy Division at the top — yet sits at 7/2 on the morning line. Trainer Thomas Molloy puts Samuel Marin in the irons, and while the 51 average speed figure is the lowest among the top contenders, the overall model score suggests there's more ability here than the raw numbers show. Don't let Joy Division's top billing blind you to this one as a legit upset threat.

show4Grey BullML 9/2

Grey Bull earns an 81.95 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field and only 5 points off the leader — and Jamie Ness trains with Mychel J. Sanchez riding, one of the sharper jockey-trainer hookups you'll find on the Colonial circuit. An average speed figure of 53 matches the field median, and at 9/2 on the morning line, this is a horse priced close to fair value for what he brings to the table. Strong trifecta inclusion.

Race 9

7:08 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

One of the deepest fields on the card — 12 horses going a mile on the turf in a claiming race, with four horses rated between 70 and 80 on our model and no clear runaway top selection, making this a prime exotics race.

win4Mr. FuntasticoML 8/1

Mr. Funtastico tops our TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a significant overlay for the highest-rated horse in the field. Trainer Kieron Magee and jockey Horacio Karamanos team up, and while a 5% career win rate is modest, the model sees ability here that the public price doesn't reflect. On a mile turf course where pace can set up for closers, a horse with this kind of rating gap is exactly who we want at the top of our ticket.

place12CptbobsbtwentynineML 8/1

Cptbobsbtwentynine rates 78.35 — nearly as high as our top pick — and goes at 8/1, making this a race with two overlays in the top two spots. Trainer Jordan Blair and jockey Jareth Loveberry form a capable pairing, and a 10% career win rate with a 54 average speed figure shows a horse that's been competitive. In a field this deep, two horses priced at the same odds with top model scores makes for a very attractive exacta.

show2Some PerformanceML 3/1

Some Performance comes in at a 74.48 TrackWiz rating with the best career win percentage among our top three picks at 25% — and goes at 3/1 on the morning line, making him the most fairly priced of the bunch. Trainer Brendan P. Walsh is a significant name in turf racing, and jockey Jorge Ruiz brings competitive experience. With a 54 average speed figure and a proven winner's profile, Some Performance anchors our exotic tickets underneath.

Race 10

7:40 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A turf allowance mile with a clear class standout at the top of our ratings and a legitimate overlay lurking one spot below — this is a race where the model and the morning line diverge enough to create real value on multiple horses.

win2Gramp's LegacyML 5/2

Gramp's Legacy leads all comers with an 86.55 TrackWiz rating and pairs that with a 33% career win rate — one of the strongest winning profiles you'll see anywhere on the card today. Trainer Jeremiah O'Dwyer and jockey Johan Rosado form a sharp turf team, and an average speed figure of 56 is among the best in the field. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is as close to a confident top selection as you'll find in allowance company.

place9Drilling for GoldML 8/1

Drilling for Gold rates 79.79 on our model and goes at 8/1 — a clear overlay for a horse with a 20% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure. Trainer Brittany T. Russell sends out Sheldon Russell in a family barn booking that often signals confidence, and the distance-surface combination of a mile on turf suits the profile. This is one of the best-priced plays on the entire card if you're looking for place and exotic value.

show1Se Thar BarrML 5/1

Se Thar Barr rounds out our top three at 79.12 on the TrackWiz ratings and posts an average speed figure of 55 — right in line with the top contenders. Trainer Susan S. Cooney and jockey Jorge Ruiz make a workmanlike pairing, and a 10% career win rate in allowance company still puts this horse in the hunt. At 5/1 on the morning line, Se Thar Barr is a solid show bet and a value piece to include in trifecta and superfecta combinations.

Race 11

8:11 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The nightcap is a maiden special weight sprint on the turf headlined by a standout morning-line favorite who is as dominant on paper as any horse on the card — but two double-digit longshots make the exotics worth building.

win1ItalyML 4/5

Italy carries a TrackWiz rating of 90.00 — the highest mark of any horse on the entire Colonial card today — and goes as the 4/5 morning-line favorite, meaning the market has caught up to what our model sees. Trainer Michael Stidham is an accomplished conditioner, and Sonny Leon in the irons gives this horse an aggressive, confident rider for a sprint on the turf. With an average speed figure of 55, Italy looks like a horse ready to dominate this maiden field, and at 4/5, you're essentially paying for certainty — though in maiden company, nothing is guaranteed.

place4VeraciousML 5/1

Veracious is the clear second-best option on our model at 56.96, going at 5/1 on the morning line with trainer Cherie DeVaux and jockey Samuel Marin. The 57 average speed figure is the joint-highest in the field — matching Cheddar — and in a sprint where pace matters, raw speed can surprise. If Italy stumbles or gets shuffled back in a full field, Veracious is ideally positioned to scoop up the place.

show10ScarceML 12/1

Scarce sits third on our model at 50.94 with an average speed figure of 54, and trainer D. Whitworth Beckman has a second entry in this race, which suggests the barn is targeting this spot seriously. Jockey Jareth Loveberry is a quality booking for a maiden turf sprint, and at 12/1 on the morning line, Scarce represents the best-priced horse among the legitimate contenders. A great show bet and a strong trifecta wheel underneath Italy.

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It's a deep, turf-heavy Thursday at Colonial Downs with real value scattered across the card — from Roundtop's 8/1 price in the opener to Miss Serafina's eye-catching morning line mid-card. The free races give you a strong starting point, and Italy's 90 TrackWiz rating makes the finale must-watch. Ready to go deeper? Full-card analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket breakdowns are available to TrackWiz subscribers — check out our plans at /pricing. Good luck out there today.

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