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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — August 7, 2026

August 7, 20269 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

It's a gorgeous Friday at Colonial Downs — clear skies, 87°F, and the kind of firm turf you dream about when you're hunting for pace-pressers and closers to run their best numbers. Nine races are on the board today, split evenly between dirt and Colonial's famously lush turf course, which should be playing right into the sweet spot of fast and fair.

The card has something for everyone: a couple of maiden events to kick things off, a mid-card stretch of turf claimers that could produce some juicy overlays, and a late-card allowance sprint on the turf to close it out. With the ground playing fast, pace scenarios are going to be key all day — horses with early speed will be dangerous, but don't sleep on closers if the early fractions get honest.

TrackWiz has rated all nine races, and the numbers are pointing to a few standout situations where the morning line might not be telling the full story. Three races are open to everyone — let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear top-two standout race with No What Ifs and Militia separating themselves from the field on ratings, but the 7-horse sprint sets up for a pace battle that could play into closers' hands.

win4No What IfsML 7/2

No What Ifs earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 — a significant gap over second-ranked Militia — and backs it up with a 25% career win rate that's entirely respectable at the allowance level. Trainer Grant T. Forster sends him out at 7/2 on the morning line, which feels like fair value given the rating edge. Jareth Loveberry gets the call, and he's a capable hand in short-field sprints like this one at six furlongs. If the pace heats up early, No What Ifs looks like the horse with the class to close it out.

place6MilitiaML 3/1

Militia sits second in the ratings at 78.4 with a solid 30% career win percentage — the best strike rate among the top contenders in this field. Paco Lopez is a reliable pilot who knows how to position a horse in a sprint, and a 3/1 morning line suggests the market respects this one's chances. Even if No What Ifs runs him down, Militia's consistency makes him a strong candidate to hit the board.

show2Gena BML 6/1

Gena B at 6/1 is the value play for exotics, posting the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 62.18. Johan Rosado takes the mount for trainer Horacio De Paz, and if there's any trouble up front in the early stages, Gena B could emerge as a sneaky alternative to the top two. At those odds, including her in trifecta coverage makes a lot of sense.

Race 2

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse maiden claiming field on the turf at 1 1/8 miles with every horse winless — this one is wide open, but The Fed's Plot owns a commanding rating edge that's hard to ignore.

win9The Fed's PlotML 3/1

The Fed's Plot tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08, which is a full 16+ points clear of the next best horse in this field — that's a sizable cushion in a maiden race. Samuel Marin gets the leg up for trainer Kelsey Danner, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this isn't an overlay, but the rating advantage justifies the favorite-level support. The 1 1/8-mile turf trip is a test, but horses with this kind of rating gap in maiden fields tend to graduate. The Fed's Plot looks like the most reliable anchor for your multi-race tickets.

place13Rule Seventy SixML 2/1

Rule Seventy Six comes in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a rating of 70.65 — the second-best mark in the field — trained by Saffie A. Joseph Jr., who is perpetually dangerous with maiden turf routers. Nik Juarez takes the mount and will likely have this horse rolling late in the long 1 1/8-mile trip. Even if The Fed's Plot has the edge, this one is too well-connected to dismiss for a place spot.

show11Grand LiamML 6/1

Grand Liam at 6/1 slots in at a 69.33 rating, nearly identical to Rule Seventy Six, and trainer Gerard Ochoa double-enters in this race — always a sign of stable confidence in conditions. Daniel Centeno rides and the price point makes Grand Liam worth including in trifecta wheels. In a wide-open maiden field this size, having a 6/1 shot in show position gives you strong payout potential.

Race 3

5:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight, competitive claiming sprint where the top two ratings are separated by barely three points — Double Airo and Green Eyed Monster look destined to hook up, and the pace scenario could be the deciding factor at six furlongs.

win1Double AiroML 5/1

Double Airo leads all comers with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and checks in with a strong 33% career win percentage — the best strike rate among any horse in this field. Carlos Eduardo Lopez climbs aboard for trainer W. Robert Bailes, and the 5/1 morning line represents genuine value given that rating advantage. At six furlongs on dirt, horses with high speed figures and strong career win rates tend to be on the muscle, and Double Airo fits that profile perfectly. This is a best-bet situation despite the modest odds discount.

place2Green Eyed MonsterML 3/1

Green Eyed Monster is only a tick behind at 80.76 with a matching 28% career win rate, making this a true photo finish on paper between the top two. Trainer John J. Robb also saddles Itsamonstamash in this race — that double-entry tells you he's comfortable in these conditions. Xavier Perez gets the call and should have Green Eyed Monster close enough at the top of the stretch to threaten for the win and secure a place finish.

show6KissedbyanangelML 9/2

Kissedbyanangel at 9/2 has a 73.37 rating — a legitimate third-best in the field — and Paco Lopez is a significant jockey upgrade that demands attention in any race. Trainer Joanne Shankle's runner has a modest career win rate of 12%, but this is a claiming race where pace and trip matter. If the top two hook up early and tire each other out, Kissedbyanangel is positioned to sweep up the pieces late.

Our three free races today span both surfaces and race types, giving every reader a taste of the full card. On the dirt side, No What Ifs (Race 1, 7/2 ML, rated 86.35) headlines the allowance opener at six furlongs — a distance that should suit a horse with that kind of TrackWiz rating on a fast track. In the dirt claiming spot, Double Airo (Race 3, 5/1 ML, rated 84.17) is the one to beat, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value if the pace sets up right. Over on the turf, The Fed's Plot (Race 2, 3/1 ML, rated 87.08) earns our top rating among the free picks — the 1 1/8-mile maiden claiming distance on a firm turf course is exactly where horses with stamina and a clean trip can outrun their odds.

The through-line connecting these three free plays: today's firm turf and fast dirt are rewarding horses with legitimate speed figures, and all three of our free top picks have the ratings to back them up. None of them are chalk you have to swallow hard — No What Ifs and The Fed's Plot offer fair prices, while Double Airo is a legit value target.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint with every horse still looking for that first career win — Hot Cocoa leads the TrackWiz ratings, but Blame Eve is right there, and a 12-horse field at six furlongs on dirt means chaos is always a possibility.

win4Hot CocoaML 5/1

Hot Cocoa sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 with a respectable average speed figure of 55 to match. Trainer Mary Lightner sends this one out at 5/1 on the morning line, which feels like solid value for the top-rated horse in the field. Jareth Loveberry is in the irons — a jockey who consistently delivers results and knows how to break sharp from the gate in maiden sprints. In a field this deep, having the highest rating, a capable jockey, and a fair price is about as good a combination as you can ask for.

place5Blame EveML 3/1

Blame Eve at 3/1 posts an 80.78 rating — barely a sliver behind Hot Cocoa — and trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero clearly has this one ready to fire. Ruben Silvera takes the mount, and while the average speed figure of 52 is slightly below the top contenders, maiden races are often won by horses who simply run their best race on the day. The 3/1 morning line shows the market is high on Blame Eve, and a place finish is a very realistic outcome here.

show11RuntownML 8/1

Runtown drifts out to 8/1 on the morning line but has the third-best rating in the field at 76.64 with an average speed figure of 54. Trainer Monica McGoey sends this one out for Ubardo Casique, and in a large maiden field, double-digit-priced horses with legitimate ratings often outrun their morning lines. If you're playing trifectas, Runtown at 8/1 with a 76.64 rating is exactly the type of horse you want underneath your top two picks.

Race 5

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A maiden special weight turf route at 1 1/8 miles where the morning-line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — Bourbon Dream leads on numbers but faces a sharp field with a pair of well-connected runners right on his tail.

win9Bourbon DreamML 7/2

Bourbon Dream owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35 despite being posted at 7/2 on the morning line — a slight disconnect that creates mild overlay value. Paco Lopez is one of the most accomplished jockeys on the East Coast and a major positive in a maiden turf route where tactical positioning over 1 1/8 miles can be decisive. Trainer Fausto Gutierrez sends this one out with Lopez getting the call, and the average speed figure of 54 is competitive with the best in the field. Maiden turf routes at this distance heavily reward horses with the highest raw ability, and Bourbon Dream's numbers say he has it.

place1C J StarML 5/2

C J Star enters as the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with a 85.49 rating — just a hair below Bourbon Dream — trained by the accomplished Mark E. Casse, who runs horses to win and rarely wastes starts. Sonny Leon gets the mount, and Casse runners in maiden turf routes carry enormous credibility. If Bourbon Dream has any trouble in traffic over 1 1/8 miles, C J Star is poised to capitalize.

show7Joy DivisionML 8/1

Joy Division at 8/1 is the value inclusion for exotics, posting a 78.63 TrackWiz rating — a legitimate third-best in the field — under trainer Arnaud Delacour, who has a well-earned reputation with European-style turf routers. Samuel Marin takes the mount and knows how to get horses into a rhythm over distance. At 8/1, Joy Division is the kind of horse that wins maiden turf routes at a price, and including this one in trifecta coverage at those odds is just smart handicapping.

Race 6

7:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The morning-line favorite doesn't come close to topping the TrackWiz ratings here — Ineedyoubabe at 12/1 leads the field on numbers in a nine-horse turf claiming mile that shapes up as a prime longshot opportunity.

win6IneedyoubabeML 12/1

Ineedyoubabe tops the TrackWiz ratings at 73.96 and flashes a stunning 57% career win percentage — by far the highest in this field and a number that commands serious respect. The 12/1 morning line suggests the market isn't fully caught up to these numbers, which is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is designed to find. Trainer Anthony Farrior sends this one out with Jeiron Barbosa in the irons, and while the average speed figure of 52 is modest, that career win rate tells you this horse knows how to get to the wire first. At double-digit odds, Ineedyoubabe is your prime value play in Race 6.

place5Tell Me Some LiesML 9/2

Tell Me Some Lies at 9/2 has a 67.53 rating and a 21% career win percentage — consistent numbers that suggest a horse that competes every time out. Sonny Leon rides for trainer Joseph F. Orseno, and a 9/2 morning line on a horse with legitimate numbers in a nine-horse field is fair value. If Ineedyoubabe leads this race home, Tell Me Some Lies has the profile to run them down for the place.

show9Golden RocketML 7/2

Golden Rocket at 7/2 is interesting as a show play — a 64.25 TrackWiz rating combined with a 17% career win rate puts this one solidly in the mix. Jorge Ruiz climbs aboard for W. Robert Bailes, who is no stranger to cashing tickets in turf claiming races. The 7/2 morning line means you won't get rich on the show end, but if you're building exacta and trifecta tickets around Ineedyoubabe, Golden Rocket underneath is a logical piece.

Race 7

7:30 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Mark Casse doubles up with two entries in this optional claiming turf mile, with The Brigade holding the top rating and presenting a potential value edge at 4/1 in a race where the form looks bunched.

win6The BrigadeML 4/1

The Brigade tops the TrackWiz ratings at 83.02 with an average speed figure of 55 — one of the better figures in the field — and trainer Mark E. Casse notoriously enters horses to win, not just to finish. Samuel Marin gets the mount and the 4/1 morning line is a reasonable price for the top-rated horse in an optional claiming turf mile. With a 12% career win rate, The Brigade isn't a knockout-percentage horse, but in optional claiming company the rating edge over the field is what matters most. When Casse singles a horse in a race where he has two, pay attention.

place5Our Souper HeroML 9/2

Our Souper Hero rates at 73.81 with a 25% career win percentage and is also trained by Casse — the second of the barn's two entries in this race. Sonny Leon rides, and this horse has the second-best average speed figure in the field at 55, matching The Brigade. The 9/2 morning line on a Casse-Leon combo in a turf mile is always worth considering, and if the stable's primary firepower is The Brigade, Our Souper Hero still figures to be competitive for the place.

show4RecklessML 7/2

Reckless at 7/2 with a 72.66 rating and a 33% career win percentage is arguably the most consistent horse in the race on percentage alone. Paco Lopez takes the mount for Jamie Ness, and a horse winning 33% of its career starts in optional claiming company is exactly the type of reliable runner you want filling out your trifecta. The 7/2 morning line reflects market respect, and this horse's strike rate suggests it knows how to hit the board.

Race 8

8:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Knockanara enters as a short-priced morning-line favorite and is backed by top ratings, but Karate Island lurks with a near-identical number at 5/1 — this shapes up as a two-horse race in a sprawling 14-horse field on the turf.

win8KnockanaraML 3/2

Knockanara goes postward as the 3/2 morning-line favorite and backs that billing with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.18 — plus the highest average speed figure at 57, which stands out in a field where most horses clock in at 54-56. Trainer Sarah Nagle sends this one out with Jorge Ruiz in the irons, and the 23% career win rate is solid for an allowance turf sprint. A 57 average speed figure at 5.5 furlongs on turf is a genuine form edge, and it's hard to make a case against Knockanara as the anchor of your tickets.

place9Karate IslandML 5/1

Karate Island is essentially co-top-rated at 84.17 — one one-hundredth of a point behind Knockanara — and goes at 5/1 on the morning line, which is the most interesting price discrepancy on the card. Trainer Brittany T. Russell sends Jevian Toledo out on this one, and an average speed figure of 56 is right there with the best in the field. In a 14-horse turf sprint where traffic trouble is a real factor, Karate Island at 5/1 with a near-identical rating to the favorite is a prime value play for exactas and trifectas.

show10Biker BaleyML 6/1

Biker Baley at 6/1 rates third in the field at 70.4 with a strong 33% career win percentage — a number that holds up beautifully in allowance company. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon also has Roommate Martin in the field, but Biker Baley is clearly the stable's stronger entry with Jareth Loveberry getting the call. An average speed figure of 55 and a 33% career win rate says this horse competes, and at 6/1 in a 14-horse field, the show payoff should be worth chasing.

Race 9

8:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A deep, 14-horse turf claiming mile to close out the card, with Flamenco Star holding the top rating but facing four horses rated 70 or above — this is the most competitive race of the day, and the pace scenario in a field this large is anyone's guess.

win11Flamenco StarML 4/1

Flamenco Star commands the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and gets Paco Lopez in the saddle — a major positive in a large-field turf mile where positioning and pace judgment are everything. Trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. sends this one out at 4/1 on the morning line, a fair price for the top-rated horse going a mile on turf. The 12% career win rate isn't flashy, but the rating gap over most of this field is meaningful, and Lopez has the experience to navigate a 14-horse turf field efficiently. Flamenco Star is the best bet to close out the card.

place14CptbobsbtwentynineML 3/1

Cptbobsbtwentynine is a mouthful to say but a legitimate threat with an 80.88 rating and a 10% career win rate — numbers that suggest consistent form without necessarily dominating. Jareth Loveberry gets the call for trainer Jordan Blair at 3/1 on the morning line, making this one of the better-priced contenders in the race. In a competitive field, a horse with a top-five rating and a capable jockey at 3/1 is a reliable place candidate.

show4Boss LilyML 6/1

Boss Lily at 6/1 rates at 80.12 — third-best in the field — and trainer Phil Schoenthal sends out Jevian Toledo, who is dangerous in any turf route. The 8% career win rate is low, but in claiming company over a mile on turf, form cycles matter more than raw percentages. At 6/1 with a legit rating in a race where the top three horses are all closely bunched, Boss Lily is a smart inclusion on the bottom of trifecta tickets.

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Bottom line: Colonial Downs is offering up a well-rounded nine-race Friday card under perfect conditions. The Fed's Plot is our top-rated free pick, No What Ifs headlines the dirt, and Double Airo gives you a price in the claimer. For the full card — including that 12/1 longshot angle and all the exotic ticket breakdowns — subscribers have everything they need waiting for them. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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