Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — August 7, 2026

Green Eyed Monster is only a tick behind at 80.76 with a matching 28% career win rate, making this a true photo finish on paper between the top two. Trainer John J. Robb also saddles Itsamonstamash in this race — that double-entry tells you he's comfortable in these conditions. Xavier Perez gets the call and should have Green Eyed Monster close enough at the top of the stretch to threaten for the win and secure a place finish.

Kissedbyanangel at 9/2 has a 73.37 rating — a legitimate third-best in the field — and Paco Lopez is a significant jockey upgrade that demands attention in any race. Trainer Joanne Shankle's runner has a modest career win rate of 12%, but this is a claiming race where pace and trip matter. If the top two hook up early and tire each other out, Kissedbyanangel is positioned to sweep up the pieces late.

Blame Eve at 3/1 posts an 80.78 rating — barely a sliver behind Hot Cocoa — and trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero clearly has this one ready to fire. Ruben Silvera takes the mount, and while the average speed figure of 52 is slightly below the top contenders, maiden races are often won by horses who simply run their best race on the day. The 3/1 morning line shows the market is high on Blame Eve, and a place finish is a very realistic outcome here.

Runtown drifts out to 8/1 on the morning line but has the third-best rating in the field at 76.64 with an average speed figure of 54. Trainer Monica McGoey sends this one out for Ubardo Casique, and in a large maiden field, double-digit-priced horses with legitimate ratings often outrun their morning lines. If you're playing trifectas, Runtown at 8/1 with a 76.64 rating is exactly the type of horse you want underneath your top two picks.

C J Star enters as the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with a 85.49 rating — just a hair below Bourbon Dream — trained by the accomplished Mark E. Casse, who runs horses to win and rarely wastes starts. Sonny Leon gets the mount, and Casse runners in maiden turf routes carry enormous credibility. If Bourbon Dream has any trouble in traffic over 1 1/8 miles, C J Star is poised to capitalize.

Joy Division at 8/1 is the value inclusion for exotics, posting a 78.63 TrackWiz rating — a legitimate third-best in the field — under trainer Arnaud Delacour, who has a well-earned reputation with European-style turf routers. Samuel Marin takes the mount and knows how to get horses into a rhythm over distance. At 8/1, Joy Division is the kind of horse that wins maiden turf routes at a price, and including this one in trifecta coverage at those odds is just smart handicapping.

Tell Me Some Lies at 9/2 has a 67.53 rating and a 21% career win percentage — consistent numbers that suggest a horse that competes every time out. Sonny Leon rides for trainer Joseph F. Orseno, and a 9/2 morning line on a horse with legitimate numbers in a nine-horse field is fair value. If Ineedyoubabe leads this race home, Tell Me Some Lies has the profile to run them down for the place.

Golden Rocket at 7/2 is interesting as a show play — a 64.25 TrackWiz rating combined with a 17% career win rate puts this one solidly in the mix. Jorge Ruiz climbs aboard for W. Robert Bailes, who is no stranger to cashing tickets in turf claiming races. The 7/2 morning line means you won't get rich on the show end, but if you're building exacta and trifecta tickets around Ineedyoubabe, Golden Rocket underneath is a logical piece.

Our Souper Hero rates at 73.81 with a 25% career win percentage and is also trained by Casse — the second of the barn's two entries in this race. Sonny Leon rides, and this horse has the second-best average speed figure in the field at 55, matching The Brigade. The 9/2 morning line on a Casse-Leon combo in a turf mile is always worth considering, and if the stable's primary firepower is The Brigade, Our Souper Hero still figures to be competitive for the place.

Reckless at 7/2 with a 72.66 rating and a 33% career win percentage is arguably the most consistent horse in the race on percentage alone. Paco Lopez takes the mount for Jamie Ness, and a horse winning 33% of its career starts in optional claiming company is exactly the type of reliable runner you want filling out your trifecta. The 7/2 morning line reflects market respect, and this horse's strike rate suggests it knows how to hit the board.

Karate Island is essentially co-top-rated at 84.17 — one one-hundredth of a point behind Knockanara — and goes at 5/1 on the morning line, which is the most interesting price discrepancy on the card. Trainer Brittany T. Russell sends Jevian Toledo out on this one, and an average speed figure of 56 is right there with the best in the field. In a 14-horse turf sprint where traffic trouble is a real factor, Karate Island at 5/1 with a near-identical rating to the favorite is a prime value play for exactas and trifectas.

Biker Baley at 6/1 rates third in the field at 70.4 with a strong 33% career win percentage — a number that holds up beautifully in allowance company. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon also has Roommate Martin in the field, but Biker Baley is clearly the stable's stronger entry with Jareth Loveberry getting the call. An average speed figure of 55 and a 33% career win rate says this horse competes, and at 6/1 in a 14-horse field, the show payoff should be worth chasing.

Cptbobsbtwentynine is a mouthful to say but a legitimate threat with an 80.88 rating and a 10% career win rate — numbers that suggest consistent form without necessarily dominating. Jareth Loveberry gets the call for trainer Jordan Blair at 3/1 on the morning line, making this one of the better-priced contenders in the race. In a competitive field, a horse with a top-five rating and a capable jockey at 3/1 is a reliable place candidate.

Boss Lily at 6/1 rates at 80.12 — third-best in the field — and trainer Phil Schoenthal sends out Jevian Toledo, who is dangerous in any turf route. The 8% career win rate is low, but in claiming company over a mile on turf, form cycles matter more than raw percentages. At 6/1 with a legit rating in a race where the top three horses are all closely bunched, Boss Lily is a smart inclusion on the bottom of trifecta tickets.