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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026

July 31, 20269 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Colonial Downs — clear skies, 85°F, and the kind of firm turf conditions that make grass racing in Virginia genuinely exciting. With seven of nine races contested on the lawn today, surface preferences are going to matter all card long.

Nine races are on the slate, stretching from a 6-furlong maiden claimer to a mile turf allowance to close the card. The mix of maiden races, claiming company, and upper-level allowance fields gives every kind of bettor something to dig into — whether you're looking for a chalk play or hunting a price.

A few names are already jumping off the page in our TrackWiz analysis. Lucky Tin Tin on the dirt in Race 2 and Munny Problem on the turf in Race 6 are generating some of the highest ratings on the card. Keep those two in your sights.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming sprint on the turf where two Mary Lightner trainees dominate the morning line, but Queen of Woodbine's edge in average speed figures makes this a three-horse puzzle worth solving carefully.

win3MightystrongchanceML 2/1

Mightystrongchance tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and carries a 2/1 morning line that reflects genuine respect from the oddsmakers. Trainer Mary Lightner saddles this one alongside stablemate Sisu Spirit, and having two live runners in the same race can work in your favor — connections clearly like their chances here. Jareth Loveberry gets the call, and he's a rider who knows how to position turf runners in tight sprints. With an average speed figure of 54 in a field where several rivals show zeroes, there's a measurable edge here.

place4Sisu SpiritML 5/2

Sisu Spirit is the other Lightner runner at 5/2, matching stablemate Mightystrongchance's average speed figure of 54 — so these two are essentially a barn entry in all but name. The question for bettors is whether Sisu Spirit can split or run past her stablemate; Rajiv Maragh is a capable enough hand to carve out a separate trip and grab a piece. At 5/2 she's worth stacking in exactas and trifectas beneath the win pick.

show5Queen of WoodbineML 9/2

Queen of Woodbine is the interesting inclusion here — she's the only horse in the field with an average speed figure of 56, which actually tops the two favorites in raw speed terms. The 9/2 morning line reflects some uncertainty, but if she fires her best number on the Colonial turf, she's a genuine contender to hit the board. Trainer John J. Robb has her pointed at a race she can compete in, and that speed advantage makes her the right show anchor in trifecta play.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Lucky Tin Tin dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this dirt mile claimer, but Fresh Out opens as the morning-line favorite at even money, setting up an interesting battle between raw form numbers and public support.

win2Lucky Tin TinML 5/2

Lucky Tin Tin is the standout on paper with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — nearly five points clear of second-ranked Quibble and a full 25 points ahead of the morning-line favorite Fresh Out. A 25% career win rate is legitimate class for this level, and trainer A. Ferris Allen III keeps Paco Lopez in the irons, a sharp jockey who will use that gate speed in a one-mile dirt setting. The 5/2 price offers fair value given how clearly she separates from the field in our model.

place4QuibbleML 7/2

Quibble rates second in our analysis at 82.60 with Jareth Loveberry aboard, and trainer Michael E. Lauer has positioned this one at 7/2 — a price that likely goes even lower once the public sorts through the form. A 7% career win rate in claiming company isn't flashy, but the speed figure of 53 is consistent with what it takes to hit the board in this spot. Use her underneath Lucky Tin Tin in the exacta.

show6Fresh OutML EVN

Fresh Out draws the morning-line favoritism at even money for trainer Kenneth G. McPeek, but our TrackWiz rating of 63 puts her well behind the top two — suggesting she may be a false favorite driven by public reputation rather than current form. Still, a 12% career win rate and consistent speed figures of 53 mean she's not going to disappear, and McPeek is always worth respecting. She's a reasonable show play and a safety net for your trifecta tickets.

Race 3

5:36 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Graham Motion ships in two runners for this maiden special weight mile on the turf, and the wide-open ratings spread makes this a race where stable confidence — not the morning line — may be the most useful handicapping tool.

win7Mary's Gunna RunML 2/1

Mary's Gunna Run heads our selections with a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 and the highest average speed figure among our top picks at 55. Trainer H. Graham Motion is one of the sharpest conditioners in the mid-Atlantic with turf maidens, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the barn's confidence. Jorge Ruiz gets the mount, and in a nine-horse field on Colonial's turf course, drawing post 7 gives her room to find her stride without getting pinched early.

place8Cherokee PurpleML 3/1

Cherokee Purple at 3/1 rates second in our model at 56.67 — just behind the top pick but well clear of the rest. Trainer Kelsey Danner sends Samuel Marin out from post 8, another outside draw that should help in a one-mile turf test where early traffic can be punishing. In a race where several horses show zero average speed figures, Cherokee Purple's 53 is a tangible edge that earns her a place slot.

show3By Her DecreeML 9/2

By Her Decree comes in at 9/2 on the morning line with a solid 54 average speed figure and a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 — tied with Dance to Glory but with actual speed numbers behind it. Trainer Jeremiah O'Dwyer has a strong reputation with turf routes, and Johan Rosado is a reliable turf jockey. At 9/2, the value is there to use her in exotics, especially in a field this competitive.

The first three races are free for all TrackWiz readers, and they cover a nice spread — a 6-furlong turf maiden claimer, a mile dirt claimer, and a mile turf maiden special weight. On firm turf like we're seeing today, pace scenarios tend to favor horses who can settle off the early speed and unleash a sustained run in the stretch. That's a thread worth pulling in Races 1 and 3.

Our top free picks are Mightystrongchance (Race 1, 2/1 morning line), Lucky Tin Tin (Race 2, 5/2), and Mary's Gunna Run (Race 3, 2/1). Lucky Tin Tin carries the highest TrackWiz rating of the trio at 87.81 — that's a strong number for a claiming field — so if you're only making one free-race play today, that's where we'd start.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Pomerance dominates the TrackWiz model in this dirt maiden special weight, but the 7/5 morning-line favorite Sister Jean creates a classic situation where the public and the numbers are pointing in different directions.

win2PomeranceML 4/1

Pomerance opens at 4/1 but holds a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — the highest in the field by a significant margin and nearly 10 points clear of second-ranked Crawford. Trainer Brittany T. Russell saddles this one alongside Baffle, so she clearly likes her chances with both, but Pomerance's rating is the one that stands out. Jevian Toledo is an experienced jockey who knows how to navigate a dirt maiden route, and the 4/1 price on a horse this well-rated is exactly the kind of value TrackWiz analysis is designed to find.

place3CrawfordML 5/1

Crawford rates second in our model at 76.48 for trainer Arnaud Delacour, a conditioner who consistently produces ready-to-fire maiden runners. Mychel J. Sanchez takes the call from post 3, which is a clean, manageable draw in a six-horse field. The 54 average speed figure leads the field in raw terms, making Crawford a legitimate win threat and a high-confidence place selection.

show5Sister JeanML 7/5

Sister Jean is the 7/5 morning-line chalk for trainer D. Whitworth Beckman with Jareth Loveberry aboard — a respected jockey-trainer pairing that explains the public money. Our TrackWiz rating of 57.59 doesn't make her the standout the morning line implies, but she's not without merit: a 53 average speed figure and consistent form make her a near-certain board finisher. Use her in the show position of your trifectas and lean toward our top two for the bigger payoff.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A deep eleven-horse turf claiming sprint with a clear TrackWiz standout in Yo Adrian, but the real story is the sneaky value beneath the top choice — Cash Machine's 25% career win rate and a pair of 15/1 shots could blow this trifecta wide open.

win11Yo AdrianML 9/2

Yo Adrian leads our model at 83.03 — a significant gap over the field in a race this competitive. The 9/2 morning line is fair value for a horse with a 10% career win rate who is stepping into a spot our analysis clearly favors. Trainer Brittany T. Russell and jockey Jevian Toledo are a combination worth following at Colonial Downs, and an average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the field alongside Goal, Let Her Pass By, and Cash Machine. TrackWiz sees her as the clear top selection here.

place9Cash MachineML 8/1

Cash Machine at 8/1 is the value angle in this race, and the case is compelling: a 25% career win rate is the best in the field — twice the mark of most rivals — and an average speed figure of 56 matches the top horses. Trainer Gerald S. Bennett has him pointed here at a price that might be too good. Horacio Karamanos rides, and if the pace gets hot up front, this horse's natural running style could produce a big late kick. The 8/1 morning line screams overlay.

show3Let Her Pass ByML 15/1

Let Her Pass By opens at a generous 15/1 despite rating third in our model at 69.58 and posting an average speed figure of 56. Trainer Richard P. Sillaman sends Daniel Centeno out from post 3, and a 10% career win rate is respectable at this level. If the pace scenario develops favorably, this one has the raw speed numbers to hit the board at a price that would make the trifecta very interesting.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

Munny Problem towers over this maiden special weight turf sprint in the TrackWiz model, but the battle for second money is wide open with Thunder Zeus and Easy Pick both showing legitimate credentials at double-digit odds.

win2Munny ProblemML 7/5

Munny Problem is the strongest-rated horse on today's entire card at 89.42 and draws the 7/5 morning-line favoritism that our numbers fully support. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is one of the mid-Atlantic's premier turf trainers, and Mychel J. Sanchez is an ideal fit aboard a horse that likely has the tactical speed to control this race from the front. The average speed figure of 55 is consistent, and in a maiden field where several horses have no speed figures at all, that experience edge could be decisive.

place5Thunder ZeusML 4/1

Thunder Zeus rates second at 72.47 and opens at 4/1 for trainer Patrick L. Biancone, a Hall of Famer who knows exactly what he's doing with turf runners. J.G. Torrealba takes the mount, and the 56 average speed figure — the joint-best in the field — suggests this horse has the raw ability to challenge for second if Munny Problem controls things. At 4/1, he's fairly priced and worth using in exactas.

show3Easy PickML 5/1

Easy Pick at 5/1 is the third piece of this puzzle with a TrackWiz rating of 65.47 and an average speed figure of 55. Trainer Kevin J. Joy sends out Paco Lopez — one of the best turf riders in the region — and that booking alone signals confidence. In a maiden event where pedigree and connections matter as much as form, Lopez on a Joy-trained runner at 5/1 is a legitimate show anchor.

Race 7

7:36 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

Bushido is a standout in a sprawling thirteen-horse optional claiming turf sprint, but the depth of this field — including several horses with 20-30% career win rates — means the exotics could pay handsomely if the favorite meets any trouble.

win6BushidoML 2/1

Bushido leads the TrackWiz model decisively at 88.54 and carries a 2/1 morning line that still represents fair value in a field this big. A 30% career win rate is genuinely elite for a horse at this level, and trainer Lacey Gaudet puts Forest Boyce in the irons — a jockey who knows how to navigate a full gate on Colonial's turf course. The average speed figure of 57 ties for the best in the field, and when you combine that raw speed with the career winning consistency, Bushido is a confident top selection.

place9CactusML 6/1

Cactus at 6/1 is the most intriguing secondary selection in the race, and the 28% career win rate is the second-best among our picks — the kind of number that suggests a horse who finds his way to the winner's circle regularly. The average speed figure of 58 is the best in the entire field, which is a significant data point in a turf sprint where early separation matters. Trainer W. Robert Bailes has him live at a price the public may underestimate.

show8PetcoffML 5/2

Petcoff comes in at 5/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 70.13, a 22% career win rate, and an average speed figure of 57 — matching the field's best. Trainer Brittany T. Russell and Sheldon Russell make for a formidable combination, and the 5/2 price reflects the public's respect for this runner. He's a reliable show anchor in a race where the top three are tightly grouped and the trifecta payoff will depend on which order they hit the wire.

Race 8

8:08 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Noquestionaboutit carries the top TrackWiz rating into this allowance turf sprint and gets a favorable post draw, but trainer Michael J. Trombetta doubles up with Aldene, creating a barn entry dynamic that bettors need to respect.

win1NoquestionaboutitML 5/2

Noquestionaboutit is a legitimate standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — matching the top mark from Race 2's winner — and a career win rate of 30% that speaks to genuine class. The 5/2 morning line is honest, and Jorge Ruiz from post 1 gives him a clean inside draw in a sprint where early position is crucial. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is dangerous with allowance-level turf runners, and an average speed figure of 57 is exactly what's needed to win this spot.

place3AldeneML 8/1

Aldene is the other Trombetta runner at 8/1, and a rating of 58.94 with a 12% career win rate makes her a credible secondary threat — especially with Paco Lopez, one of the region's top turf jockeys, taking the mount. Her average speed figure of 56 is a tick below the top pick but well within striking range in a 5.5-furlong sprint where a few lengths can develop quickly. The 8/1 price is value for a barn that clearly knows how to saddle turf winners.

show5ChanticoML 12/1

Chantico opens at 12/1 for trainer Lacey Gaudet with Forest Boyce in the irons — a combination we saw earlier today with Bushido — and the 16% career win rate is solid context. The average speed figure of 57 matches the top two horses in the race, which means Chantico has the raw ability to hang with the favorites in a short sprint. At 12/1, she's the kind of show play that makes trifectas go from standard to very profitable.

Race 9

8:40 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A full thirteen-horse allowance mile on the turf to close out the card, with Forget About You carrying the TrackWiz top rating into a race where Connect the Stars and In Her Glory both offer excellent value underneath at appealing morning-line prices.

win13Forget About YouML 2/1

Forget About You tops our model at 81.08 and draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism that the numbers justify. Trainer Brendan P. Walsh is a consistent performer with turf mile runners, and Jorge Ruiz gets a live outside post from program number 13 — wide in a big field, but that position can actually be an asset in a turf route where horses need room to build momentum. A 25% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 underscore that this horse belongs at the top of the trifecta.

place1Connect the StarsML 4/1

Connect the Stars rates second in our model at 77.73 for trainer Mark E. Casse — the kind of conditioner who routinely ships well-prepared horses into Colonial's turf meet. Sonny Leon rides from post 1, and that rail draw in a mile-long turf event is prime real estate. The career win percentage shows as zero, suggesting a horse that may be returning from a long absence or making a significant class/surface change — but Casse's horses are rarely wasting a trip.

show4In Her GloryML 10/1

In Her Glory opens at 10/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 — just a fraction behind the place pick — and Mychel J. Sanchez takes the call for trainer Michael J. Trombetta, who has been prominent across today's card. A 16% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 give her a genuine profile in a race where several horses show lower speed numbers. At double-digit odds in a trifecta this deep, she's worth including broadly in your exotic tickets.

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Colonial Downs is set up for a sharp afternoon of turf racing under clear Virginia skies. Lucky Tin Tin in Race 2 is our top free play, while Munny Problem headlining Race 6 is the marquee premium pick. Full pace analysis, exotic ticket breakdowns, and longshot angles for all nine races are available to TrackWiz subscribers — don't leave money on the table. Good luck at the windows.

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