Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026

Cherokee Purple at 3/1 rates second in our model at 56.67 — just behind the top pick but well clear of the rest. Trainer Kelsey Danner sends Samuel Marin out from post 8, another outside draw that should help in a one-mile turf test where early traffic can be punishing. In a race where several horses show zero average speed figures, Cherokee Purple's 53 is a tangible edge that earns her a place slot.

By Her Decree comes in at 9/2 on the morning line with a solid 54 average speed figure and a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 — tied with Dance to Glory but with actual speed numbers behind it. Trainer Jeremiah O'Dwyer has a strong reputation with turf routes, and Johan Rosado is a reliable turf jockey. At 9/2, the value is there to use her in exotics, especially in a field this competitive.

Crawford rates second in our model at 76.48 for trainer Arnaud Delacour, a conditioner who consistently produces ready-to-fire maiden runners. Mychel J. Sanchez takes the call from post 3, which is a clean, manageable draw in a six-horse field. The 54 average speed figure leads the field in raw terms, making Crawford a legitimate win threat and a high-confidence place selection.

Sister Jean is the 7/5 morning-line chalk for trainer D. Whitworth Beckman with Jareth Loveberry aboard — a respected jockey-trainer pairing that explains the public money. Our TrackWiz rating of 57.59 doesn't make her the standout the morning line implies, but she's not without merit: a 53 average speed figure and consistent form make her a near-certain board finisher. Use her in the show position of your trifectas and lean toward our top two for the bigger payoff.

Cash Machine at 8/1 is the value angle in this race, and the case is compelling: a 25% career win rate is the best in the field — twice the mark of most rivals — and an average speed figure of 56 matches the top horses. Trainer Gerald S. Bennett has him pointed here at a price that might be too good. Horacio Karamanos rides, and if the pace gets hot up front, this horse's natural running style could produce a big late kick. The 8/1 morning line screams overlay.

Let Her Pass By opens at a generous 15/1 despite rating third in our model at 69.58 and posting an average speed figure of 56. Trainer Richard P. Sillaman sends Daniel Centeno out from post 3, and a 10% career win rate is respectable at this level. If the pace scenario develops favorably, this one has the raw speed numbers to hit the board at a price that would make the trifecta very interesting.

Thunder Zeus rates second at 72.47 and opens at 4/1 for trainer Patrick L. Biancone, a Hall of Famer who knows exactly what he's doing with turf runners. J.G. Torrealba takes the mount, and the 56 average speed figure — the joint-best in the field — suggests this horse has the raw ability to challenge for second if Munny Problem controls things. At 4/1, he's fairly priced and worth using in exactas.

Easy Pick at 5/1 is the third piece of this puzzle with a TrackWiz rating of 65.47 and an average speed figure of 55. Trainer Kevin J. Joy sends out Paco Lopez — one of the best turf riders in the region — and that booking alone signals confidence. In a maiden event where pedigree and connections matter as much as form, Lopez on a Joy-trained runner at 5/1 is a legitimate show anchor.

Cactus at 6/1 is the most intriguing secondary selection in the race, and the 28% career win rate is the second-best among our picks — the kind of number that suggests a horse who finds his way to the winner's circle regularly. The average speed figure of 58 is the best in the entire field, which is a significant data point in a turf sprint where early separation matters. Trainer W. Robert Bailes has him live at a price the public may underestimate.

Petcoff comes in at 5/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 70.13, a 22% career win rate, and an average speed figure of 57 — matching the field's best. Trainer Brittany T. Russell and Sheldon Russell make for a formidable combination, and the 5/2 price reflects the public's respect for this runner. He's a reliable show anchor in a race where the top three are tightly grouped and the trifecta payoff will depend on which order they hit the wire.

Aldene is the other Trombetta runner at 8/1, and a rating of 58.94 with a 12% career win rate makes her a credible secondary threat — especially with Paco Lopez, one of the region's top turf jockeys, taking the mount. Her average speed figure of 56 is a tick below the top pick but well within striking range in a 5.5-furlong sprint where a few lengths can develop quickly. The 8/1 price is value for a barn that clearly knows how to saddle turf winners.

Chantico opens at 12/1 for trainer Lacey Gaudet with Forest Boyce in the irons — a combination we saw earlier today with Bushido — and the 16% career win rate is solid context. The average speed figure of 57 matches the top two horses in the race, which means Chantico has the raw ability to hang with the favorites in a short sprint. At 12/1, she's the kind of show play that makes trifectas go from standard to very profitable.

Connect the Stars rates second in our model at 77.73 for trainer Mark E. Casse — the kind of conditioner who routinely ships well-prepared horses into Colonial's turf meet. Sonny Leon rides from post 1, and that rail draw in a mile-long turf event is prime real estate. The career win percentage shows as zero, suggesting a horse that may be returning from a long absence or making a significant class/surface change — but Casse's horses are rarely wasting a trip.

In Her Glory opens at 10/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 — just a fraction behind the place pick — and Mychel J. Sanchez takes the call for trainer Michael J. Trombetta, who has been prominent across today's card. A 16% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 give her a genuine profile in a race where several horses show lower speed numbers. At double-digit odds in a trifecta this deep, she's worth including broadly in your exotic tickets.