Daily Picks

Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

Sunday, July 5, 20268 racesColonial Downs

Happy post-holiday Sunday at Colonial Downs, where eight races are on the board for July 5th and the summer heat is not taking a day off — 91°F under clear skies with firm turf conditions setting the stage for some honest pace scenarios. If you're looking to shake off the Fourth of July cobwebs, this is a solid card to do it on.

Six of today's eight races are contested on the turf, so grass form is going to be the name of the game. The card spans a nice variety — from maiden claimers and maiden special weights working their way up the ladder to allowance-level horses trying to prove they belong. There's something here for every level of bettor, whether you're playing singles or building multi-race exotics.

Three races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, and we've got five premium races locked and loaded for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden claimer going a flat mile on dirt, and one horse stands head and shoulders above the field on TrackWiz ratings — but a pair of sneaky rivals could make this more interesting in the exacta slots.

win4Skedaddling HomeML 9/5

Skedaddling Home is the clear top selection here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — more than 35 points clear of the next closest rival. The Michael Trombetta barn is a sharp outfit, and pairing this horse with Paco Lopez at a mile on the Colonial dirt gives you every reason to expect a professional effort. With an average speed figure of 56 — best in the field — the pace scenario should set up well for a horse with natural ability. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the edge is real.

place1Revolution RockML 5/1

Revolution Rock at 5/1 is the logical place horse in a thin maiden claimer. The Jevian Toledo-Bailes combination gets a horse with a 53 average speed figure, matching Power Aura but with a far more favorable morning line for exotic purposes. In a race where the chalk is obvious, getting Revolution Rock underneath at 5/1 makes the exacta worth playing.

show5Power AuraML 5/2

Power Aura draws the third-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 48.01 and shares Revolution Rock's 53 average speed figure, making this a genuine coin flip for the show slot. Mychel Sanchez is a capable rider who can put a horse in the right spot, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market already respects this one. Use Power Aura underneath in trifectas to round out your tickets.

Race 2

3:13 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/4 mi · Turf

An eight-horse maiden special weight on the turf going 1¼ miles — a genuine distance test — with three horses bunched tightly at the top of the ratings and real separation from the rest of the field.

win5Payton's HammerML 7/2

Payton's Hammer tops the TrackWiz ratings at 63.15 despite a morning line of 7/2 that suggests the market hasn't fully caught up. Trainer Caio Caramori sends this horse out at a classic turf route distance, and Orlando Bocachica knows how to rate a horse on the grass at a mile and a quarter. With an average speed figure of 53 and the highest overall rating in the field, Payton's Hammer profiles as the most complete package here.

place3Mr BoboML 3/1

Mr Bobo rates right alongside the top pick at 60.36 and comes from the Jeremiah O'Dwyer barn, which is not a trainer you want to overlook in turf routes. Johan Rosado has shown he can navigate a long trip on the grass, and with a 53 average speed figure, this horse should be running hard late in a route. At 3/1 on the morning line, the place payoff may be modest, but Mr Bobo's profile makes him a must-include in exactas and trifectas.

show1StarkML 8/5

Stark breaks from the rail for Brendan P. Walsh — a trainer who knows how to place a horse — and posts a solid 59 TrackWiz rating with a 54 average speed figure, best in the field. The 8/5 morning line makes Stark the public's top choice, and while we prefer the horses above on overall ratings, this one's back-class and barn connection are hard to dismiss. Use Stark in show position and underneath in exactas as insurance.

Race 3

3:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A dirt claiming mile-and-sixteenth with two horses that TrackWiz rates within two points of each other at the very top, setting up a potential one-two battle between Christmas Spirit and the morning-line favorite Edelweiss.

win5Christmas SpiritML 2/1

Christmas Spirit rates a 88.54 on TrackWiz — essentially a dead heat with Edelweiss — but the value case makes this horse our top selection. At 2/1 on the morning line, Christmas Spirit offers a better price than the 4/5 chalk while posting a 13% career win rate for the Trombetta barn. Sonny Leon is a quality rider who can press or stalk in these dirt routes, and at a mile and a sixteenth, there's plenty of room to maneuver. The combination of near-identical top ratings and a full point better on the morning line makes Christmas Spirit the smart play.

place6EdelweissML 4/5

Edelweiss is the morning-line favorite at 4/5 for a reason — a 87.07 TrackWiz rating and a 52 average speed figure put this horse right at the top of the class. Paco Lopez is one of the circuit's most reliable pilots, and trainer Ferris Allen III has clearly pointed this horse for a winning effort. If Christmas Spirit handles the distance better, Edelweiss should still be running second money, making it a natural place bet even if you're fading it to win.

show3NotmyfirstrodeoML 4/1

Notmyfirstrodeo is the clear third wheel here at 64.77 — a substantial gap below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. The 4/1 morning line provides fair value for show tickets and trifecta plays, and a 52 average speed figure suggests this horse can keep pace with the leaders. Kenneth Cox sends out runners that compete on the front end at this level, which makes Notmyfirstrodeo worth including underneath.

Our three free picks today cover the early dirt and the first stretch of the card, and the common thread is confidence. Skedaddling Home opens the day in the maiden claimer going a flat mile on dirt — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating at 9/5 on the morning line tells you the model likes this one, and the pace setup on a sealed dirt track in this heat should favor a horse who can establish position early. Christmas Spirit in Race 3 is another high-rated free pick (88.54) in a claiming route on dirt — watch for class dynamics to do the heavy lifting there. Sandwiched between them, Payton's Hammer draws a tougher assignment in the maiden special weight going 1¼ miles on the turf in Race 2, which is a real test at that distance for a horse still seeking a win.

The dirt pace picture in the early races looks like it could produce some front-end speed on a warm, clear afternoon — keep that in mind when building your tickets for the first few races on the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

4:09 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

Five furlongs on the turf for maidens, and this one has a genuine price play hiding at 6/1 — Baru posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field while the morning line underestimates the horse considerably.

win4BaruML 6/1

Baru is our best bet of the race at 6/1 on the morning line despite posting an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — a full 23 points clear of the second-rated horse in the field. That kind of gap at that kind of price is exactly the spot TrackWiz analysis is designed to identify. With a 54 average speed figure — tied for best in field — and trainer Jose Corrales knowing how to deliver a turf sprinter, Baru is the value play of this race. Don't let the morning line fool you; this horse belongs at the top of your tickets.

place3Omaha SpiritML 8/5

Omaha Spirit comes from the Wesley Ward barn, and that's an angle that demands attention in a turf sprint. Ward is one of the most accomplished turf-sprint trainers in the country, and pairing with Paco Lopez gives Omaha Spirit every tactical advantage at five furlongs. The 59 TrackWiz rating and 8/5 morning line reflect legitimate respect, and this horse profiles as the most likely rival to Baru.

show2Never SleepML 5/2

Never Sleep is the second Larry Rivelli entry in the field and posts the second-best rating at 57.5, with Jareth Loveberry up for a barn that sends multiple horses for a reason. In turf sprints with a full field, having two Rivelli horses means at least one could inherit a dream trip. Use Never Sleep in your show slot and trifecta wheels as the value backup behind Baru.

Race 5

4:37 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

An eleven-horse maiden special weight sprint on the turf with most of the field showing no recorded speed figures — making the few horses with actual data stand out sharply in the TrackWiz model.

win8Bee CrazyML 2/1

Bee Crazy earns our top call with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and a recorded average speed figure of 55 — the only horse in this field to combine both a competitive rating and a confirmed speed number. Trainer Kelsey Danner has been an active presence on the Colonial turf circuit, and Samuel Marin knows how to ride a turf sprint. At 2/1 on the morning line, Bee Crazy is the public's favorite for good reason, and we agree.

place11AdelitaML 4/1

Adelita breaks from post 11 for trainer Michael B. Campbell with Jareth Loveberry in the irons — a jockey who has been putting in strong work at Colonial this meet. The 55 TrackWiz rating is solid, and while no average speed figure is available, the 4/1 morning line gives this horse fair value as the place selection. In a wide-open field of maidens, Loveberry's feel for pace from an outside post could be a genuine advantage.

show6Press ReleaseML 9/2

Press Release draws Paco Lopez — one of the best jockeys in the field — and trainer D. Whitworth Beckman points this horse at a distance and surface that suits its profile. The 54.17 TrackWiz rating places Press Release just below our top two, and 9/2 on the morning line makes it interesting for trifecta construction. In a field this large with so many unknowns, having a Lopez-ridden runner in your show spot is a sensible hedge.

Race 6

5:05 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A deep ten-horse allowance optional claiming field on the Colonial turf, where the top-rated horse is NOT the morning-line favorite — and that price discrepancy is where the opportunity lives.

win5Eff Thirty FiveML 9/2

Eff Thirty Five tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 and carries a 36% career win rate — one of the stronger win percentages in this field — yet sits at 9/2 on the morning line while lesser-rated horses command shorter prices. Trainer Brittany Russell sends this runner with Sheldon Russell in the saddle, a combination that has been sharp at Colonial. With an average speed figure of 55 and the highest overall rating in the race, this is the kind of price gap our model is designed to highlight.

place6CuginoML 8/5

Cugino opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite for Claude McGaughey III — a Hall of Fame trainer who doesn't ship horses to Colonial unless they're ready to run. A 74.44 TrackWiz rating, 40% career win rate, and 55 average speed figure make Cugino a formidable rival who should be right there at the finish. Samuel Marin gets the mount and should be able to find a good spot from post 6 in a mile-and-eighth turf race.

show7Air RecruitML 5/2

Air Recruit is a fascinating show play at 5/2 for Arnaud Delacour, posting a 74.03 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 50% career win rate — tied for the highest in the field. Paco Lopez aboard is another major plus, and the 55 average speed figure confirms this horse belongs in this company. If Eff Thirty Five and Cugino hit the board, Air Recruit's credentials suggest it'll be right behind them.

Race 7

5:33 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 3/16 mi · Turf

A nine-horse allowance at an unusual 1 3/16-mile turf trip — a distance that rewards horses with tactical versatility — and the top two in the TrackWiz ratings are separated by just 0.21 points, setting up a tight race at the top.

win1EtawaML 3/1

Etawa opens at 3/1 for the Mark Casse barn with Sonny Leon in the irons — a powerful combination on the Colonial turf. The 78.29 TrackWiz rating leads all comers, and the 55 average speed figure is tied for the field's best, suggesting Etawa has the raw ability to handle this field. What separates Etawa at the top of our card is the Casse-Leon collaboration's familiarity with turf routes, and a 1 3/16-mile trip should suit a horse that profiles as a patient, forward-moving turf type.

place9ThankfulnessML 5/1

Thankfulness at 5/1 is the most interesting horse in this race. A 78.08 TrackWiz rating — essentially tied with our top pick — combined with a 25% career win rate (best among experienced runners in the field) suggests a horse that consistently fires. Samuel Marin pilots for Miguel Clement, and at 5/1, Thankfulness offers legitimate exacta value if Etawa takes the win.

show2Doesn'thurttoflirtML 15/1

Doesn'thurttoflirt is our show pick and the race's prime value angle — a 15/1 morning line on a horse rating 69.58 on TrackWiz with an 18% career win rate. The Michael Stidham barn doesn't ship horses across state lines without confidence, and Jevian Toledo is a savvy turf jockey who can rate a closer over this kind of distance. At those odds, a single show ticket or trifecta inclusion with this horse could pay handsomely if the race sets up with a pace duel up front.

Race 8

6:01 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The day's deepest field — twelve horses in an allowance mile on the turf — with two horses rated above 84 on TrackWiz and a wide-open middle tier that makes exotic tickets both tricky and potentially lucrative.

win1Power DanceML 3/1

Power Dance leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and draws Paco Lopez for trainer Angel Rodriguez — a combination to respect on the Colonial turf. The 54 average speed figure is solid in this field, and a 12% career win rate may look modest, but it's worth noting this horse is competing in allowance company where the competition naturally suppresses win totals. At 3/1, Power Dance offers a fair price for the top-rated horse in a twelve-horse field, and Lopez's ability to find position from the inside post is a clear tactical edge.

place4Marital TrustML 6/5

Marital Trust opens as the 6/5 morning-line favorite — and for good reason. Arnaud Delacour is one of the sharper turf trainers in the Mid-Atlantic, and a 84.41 TrackWiz rating with an 55 average speed figure (best in the field) backs up the public's confidence. Mychel Sanchez has the mount, and a 20% career win rate in allowance conditions shows this is a horse that competes. We like Power Dance slightly better on overall rating, but Marital Trust should hit the board.

show2Precious MedleyML 4/1

Precious Medley at 4/1 for Kelsey Danner with Samuel Marin up is a solid third wheel in what shapes up as a competitive turf mile. The 70.83 TrackWiz rating places this horse third in the field, and a 54 average speed figure suggests she can match strides with the leaders into the stretch. In a twelve-horse field, using Precious Medley on the bottom of trifectas and superfectas is a prudent way to capture value if the top two favorites run into traffic trouble.

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Today's headline plays are Skedaddling Home in Race 1 and Christmas Spirit in Race 3 on the free side, with Power Dance leading our premium selections in the nightcap. It's a turf-heavy card on a hot July afternoon — conditions that reward sharp handicapping. Unlock the full breakdown and exotic ticket strategies for all eight races with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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