Daily Picks

Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 3, 2026

July 3, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

This card ran on July 3, 2026.

Best bets at Colonial Downs, July 3, 2026

Race 12Divine SwaggerML 5/210:45 AM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 8, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

Happy holiday eve, Colonial Downs fans. Eight races are on tap this Friday afternoon in New Kent, Virginia, and the track is baking under a brilliant, cloudless sky with temperatures pushing 92°F. That kind of heat matters — turf courses can firm up significantly on days like this, and Colonial's grass has a well-earned reputation for playing to closers when the ground gets quick underfoot.

Six of today's eight races are contested on the turf, so if you're building multi-race tickets or hunting exacta value, surface preference is going to be your most important filter all afternoon. The remaining two dirt sprints give speed horses a chance to shine before the sun takes its toll on the main track. It's a deep, varied card — maiden claimers, allowances, optional claimers, and a starter allowance — and TrackWiz analysis has identified plays at every level.

Three races are open to all readers as free best bets. The full eight-race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic strategies are waiting for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:45 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden claiming opener on the Colonial turf where one horse separates itself clearly on TrackWiz ratings, but a wide-open bottom half of the field creates exotic opportunities.

win2Divine SwaggerML 5/2

Divine Swagger is the class of this field by a significant margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — a full 23 points clear of the next closest horse. Forest Boyce gets the call in the irons, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is workable for a horse that looks this superior on paper. The 1 1/16-mile turf trip suits a horse that figures to settle and finish, and in a maiden field where no one has broken their maiden yet, raw ability tends to win out.

place3Chucky Our LawML 6/1

Chucky Our Law catches the eye as the place play at a juicy 6/1 morning line, offering real value in the exacta underneath Divine Swagger. Trained by Gerard Galligan, who also saddles Coco No Loco in this race — trainers who double up often have a clear read on which horse they prefer, and it's worth noting Chucky Our Law draws the more experienced jockey in Sofia Vives. An average speed figure of 54 is the best in the field among horses with recorded figures.

show1Broadside SalvoML 8/1

Broadside Salvo at 8/1 is worth slotting into your trifecta at a price. The TrackWiz rating of 58.33 ties Dan Gamble for third in this field, and Jose E. Vargas gets a live chance from the rail. In a five-horse field on the turf, the inside post can actually be an asset over a longer distance, and the morning-line price makes Broadside Salvo a nice trifecta fill without breaking the bank.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

11:13 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Short sprint on the dirt for maiden special weight fillies, with the morning-line favorite drawing sharp connections and a split of debut runners making pace projections tricky.

win6Caffeine FixML 6/5

Caffeine Fix opens as the 6/5 morning-line favorite and tops the TrackWiz ratings at 59.67 — modest in absolute terms but the clear edge in this field. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset has a strong reputation developing debut runners, and Jareth Loveberry is one of the sharper pilots on the Colonial circuit. Without a published speed figure, the market is doing most of the heavy lifting here, and the public clearly respects this barn's judgment.

place2StellinaML 5/2

Stellina at 5/2 is the second choice on the morning line and posts a TrackWiz rating of 57.5, close enough to Caffeine Fix to make her a real contender in the place spot. Michael J. Trombetta is a proven conditioner who consistently delivers first-out runners ready to compete, and Horacio Karamanos is a savvy pick for a horse that may need to be spotted into the race. Without a recorded speed figure, the upside is unknown — which is exactly what makes her compelling in the exacta.

show1Riva RedML 6/1

Riva Red has the most experience in the field based on her recorded average speed figure of 53, giving handicappers something concrete to hang their hat on. At 6/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 51.67, she's unlikely to be heavily bet, which could translate to show overlay value in a race where the top two are well-backed. Trainer Hamilton A. Smith keeps her live with Jeiron Barbosa in the irons.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our free card opens strong. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf at 1 1/16 miles with Divine Swagger catching our eye at a morning-line price of 5/2 — a solid rating of 87.81 suggests there's legitimate horse underneath that odds tag. Race 2 flips us to the dirt for a 5½-furlong Maiden Special Weight sprint, where Caffeine Fix comes in as the morning-line favorite at 6/5. And Race 3 brings us back to the dirt for a Claiming sprint where Betsylicious earned our top rating on the entire free card — a flat 90.00 — and draws even money on the morning line. When a horse rates that cleanly and opens at even money, the market and the numbers are speaking the same language. Pay attention.

The through-line across these three free races: the two dirt sprints in Races 2 and 3 set up as pace-centric battles where early speed could be rewarded, while the turf route in Race 1 figures to be more of a tactical, ground-saving affair given how firm the Colonial grass tends to play in summer heat. TrackWiz ratings factor in surface and distance trends — and on a day this warm, horses with proven turf form at Colonial specifically carry a meaningful edge.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

11:41 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Betsylicious arrives as a dominant favorite in this dirt claiming sprint, but the secondary battle between Lady Charlotte and Lady Zeta could produce some exotic value.

win7BetsyliciousML EVN

Betsylicious is the standout here, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the highest in today's card among claiming ranks — and opening at even money on the morning line. A 23% career win rate paired with that elite rating tells you this horse has been knocking on the door and converting at a solid clip. Samuel Marin handles the riding duties, and at 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt, this figures as a pure speed/class situation where Betsylicious should be very tough to catch.

place3Lady CharlotteML 7/2

Lady Charlotte rates second in the field with a TrackWiz score of 74.67 and a 19% career win rate — respectable numbers that suggest she consistently finds a check. Mychel J. Sanchez is a dependable pilot, and the 7/2 morning line offers fair value for a horse that could easily outrun her odds if Betsylicious hits any trouble. Trainer A. Ferris Allen III has her positioned well from post 3.

show2Lady ZetaML 3/1

Lady Zeta brings a 23% career win rate into this spot — matching Betsylicious's mark — and her TrackWiz rating of 66.04 puts her solidly in the mix for the show end of trifectas. At 3/1 morning line, she's the second choice, and trainer Lacey Gaudet with Tais Lyapustina up is a combo worth monitoring at Colonial this meet. She gives you a win-rate angle that supports her making the board regularly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

12:09 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The claiming turf mile features a classic case of a morning-line favorite that may be vulnerable, with two underlays lurking at 6/1 that tower over the field on TrackWiz ratings.

win4Stay in TuneML 6/1

Stay in Tune is one of today's best value plays across the card — a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 combined with a remarkable 33% career win rate, yet the morning line sits at 6/1 while the public loads up on Mrs. Katz at 7/5. Jorge Ruiz gets the mount for trainer Kieron Magee, and the one-mile turf distance sets up perfectly for a horse that knows how to win. If this horse goes off anywhere near 6/1 at post time, it represents significant overlay value.

place5IneedyoubabeML 6/1

Ineedyoubabe is the most intriguing figure in the race — a 57% career win rate is eye-popping and the highest in the field by a wide margin. The TrackWiz rating of 75.82 and the 6/1 morning line make Jevian Toledo's mount one of the best place bets on the card. The slightly lower average speed figure of 52 compared to the top horses is the only knock, but that win rate demands respect in any pace scenario.

show1Mrs. KatzML 7/5

Mrs. Katz draws all the public money at 7/5, and while a 16% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 61.85 aren't bad, they don't justify favoritism in this group. She does make sense as a show play — Sonny Leon aboard, rail draw, and trainer Derek S. Ryan knows how to get horses fit — but betting her to win at this price means accepting thin value. In trifectas, she's a solid anchor for the show spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

12:37 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive allowance optional claiming sprint on the dirt where the morning-line favorite is actually NOT our top-rated horse, setting up a potential overlay situation at the top of the card.

win1SuremeanttoobeML 5/1

Suremeanttoobe tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and carries a 28% career win rate — impressive credentials in an allowance optional claiming spot. The 5/1 morning line is where the value lives: Slam Notion opens at 3/2 as the crowd's choice, but our ratings give Suremeanttoobe a meaningful edge. Michael J. Trombetta conditions, and Mychel J. Sanchez is in the irons — a combination that has had success at this level. At 6 1/2 furlongs, a horse with an average speed of 55 should be right in the mix early.

place4Slam NotionML 3/2

Slam Notion at 3/2 is the betting favorite and there's a reason for it — a 46% career win rate is extraordinary and one of the highest marks you'll see on any race card. The TrackWiz rating of 77.05 keeps Slam Notion as a major player even if our model puts Suremeanttoobe on top. Jevian Toledo is one of the meet's leading riders, and trainer W. Robert Bailes also has Grand Opening in this race — always pay attention when a trainer doubles up.

show2Twelve TreasuresML 10/1

Twelve Treasures is an intriguing show price at 10/1 morning line with a 33% career win rate — that's a horse that converts at a high clip and could easily outrun a double-digit price. The TrackWiz rating of 72.43 is third-best in the field, and Sonny Leon provides quality handling from the 2-hole. In a race where the top two might hook each other, a stalker with Twelve Treasures's win rate is a natural to hit the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

1:05 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Turf

A ten-horse starter allowance on Colonial's turf course where a clear class standout on ratings is somehow not the morning-line favorite, offering potential value in a wide-body field.

win8Motown DivaML 3/1

Motown Diva leads all comers with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the top mark in the field — and a 37% career win rate that screams consistent performer. Despite those credentials, she opens at 3/1 while others draw shorter looks, which feels like a gift. Jevian Toledo is an excellent pilot for the front-running or pressing style this rating implies, and trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo has her primed. On Colonial's turf at 6 furlongs, a horse with an average speed figure of 54 who wins better than one in three starts should be tough to beat.

place5Come to MamaML 8/1

Come to Mama is the value angle at 8/1 morning line, sporting a TrackWiz rating of 68.91 — second-best in this field. A 21% career win rate is solid for the starter allowance level, and Jorge Ruiz gives the horse a smart pilot from post 5. The big gap between Come to Mama's rating and the horses priced below her on the morning line suggests the market hasn't fully caught up to what our ratings see.

show7GranuaileML 15/1

Granuaile at 15/1 morning line is a legitimate trifecta option despite a modest 7% career win rate — the TrackWiz rating of 66.38 puts her third in this ten-horse field. Denis Vicente Araujo handles the mount for Jose Corrales, and Corrales had a starter in the Race 3 winner's circle today with a horse at a similar number. The 56 average speed figure is strong for this company, and at 15/1, you don't need much to make Granuaile a profitable trifecta inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 7

1:33 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

An optional claiming route on the Colonial turf features a genuine class standout buried in a deep ten-horse field, with the place and show picks offering significant overlay potential on the morning line.

win7The BrigadeML 7/2

The Brigade is the horse to beat at 7/2 — a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 towers over the field, and trainer Mark E. Casse is one of the premier grass horsemen in North America. Sonny Leon is a top-shelf rider who gets along well in turf routes, and at 1 1/16 miles, pace scenarios tend to set up for horses with quality figures. The 7/2 morning line looks fair but could drift, and any price north of 3/1 at post time should be considered playable.

place9Punxsutawney PhilML 7/2

Punxsutawney Phil at 7/2 is our place pick, and it's hard to argue with a 28% career win rate in optional claiming company — that's a horse that knows how to get the job done. Mychel J. Sanchez has the mount, and trainer Horacio De Paz keeps the horse sharp. The TrackWiz rating of 62.16 is fourth in the field, but the win percentage suggests the numbers may be undervaluing what this horse is capable of on a good day.

show5EdgertonML 5/2

Edgerton opens at 5/2 as the morning-line second choice, and while our ratings slot him third overall in the field at 60.64, the 25% career win rate is solid. Trainer Michael Stidham has a good feel for turf routes and Sofia Vives is comfortable in this spot. In a race where The Brigade figures to be bet heavily, Edgerton represents a reasonable show hedge that could easily upgrade to place if things set up right.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

2:01 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The Colonial allowance turf mile closes the card with a legitimate battle between two top-rated horses priced well above morning-line favorites, while the crowd fixates on a 2/1 shot our ratings don't love.

win7ZephyrosML 9/2

Zephyros heads our analysis at 9/2 morning line despite posting the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.9. Trainer Mark E. Casse — who also has The Brigade in Race 7 — is a master at placing turf horses, and Sonny Leon is back in the irons for the second time today in a Casse grass entry. A 20% career win rate combined with an average speed of 55 makes Zephyros a formidable closer on Colonial's turf course, and the price relative to the Dr. Agne morning-line favorite looks like a genuine overlay.

place3CapanaparoML 4/1

Capanaparo brings a TrackWiz rating of 73.6 — third-best in the field — and a 16% career win rate for trainer Richard E. Dutrow Jr., who knows how to have a horse ready. Mychel J. Sanchez handles the riding from the 3-hole, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the place price should be attractive. If the race sets up as a pace duel up front, a horse with Capanaparo's profile has a clear path to hitting the board.

show9Lennox the GreyML 3/1

Lennox the Grey is fascinating — a 50% career win rate tied for the highest in this field, yet the morning line sits at 3/1, making the show payoff potentially thin. What makes him worth including in multi-race exotics is that Jorge Ruiz is aboard for Arnaud Delacour, a trainer who doesn't waste entries. The TrackWiz rating of 56.67 is a gap below the top two, but that win rate tells you this horse competes and converts when fit.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Today's card at Colonial Downs is a turf-lover's afternoon with real betting opportunities from the first post to the last. Our top-rated free play is Betsylicious in Race 3 — a 90-rated horse opening at even money is exactly the spot where confidence and value can coexist. For the full eight-race picture, pace breakdowns, and our multi-race exotic strategies, subscribers have everything they need in the premium analysis. Good luck out there — stay hydrated, and we'll see you in the winners' circle.

← All Colonial Downs picks & predictions