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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 17, 2026

September 17, 20268 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

It's a hot one at Churchill Downs today — 93°F under clear skies with temperatures that could have the dirt playing lightning fast by post time. Eight races are on the board, stretching from a pair of claiming miles to a sprint allowance and a turf maiden route, giving us plenty of angles to dig into across a full afternoon of racing.

The heat is worth keeping in mind. Fast, hard tracks can favor front-runners and horses with tactical speed, while turf races on firm going tend to reward closers with a late kick. We'll be watching how the early splits develop in those dirt races — if the pace scenario sets up honest, there could be some serious value in the right spots.

TrackWiz has ratings and picks locked in for all eight races. The first three are free for everyone, with the full premium card — including Races 4 through 8 — available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open mile on the dirt with three legitimate contenders clustered near the top of the TrackWiz ratings, but a clear class standout has emerged — the question is whether value exists underneath.

win5AlstonML 2/1

Alston is the standout here, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 that towers over the rest of this claiming field. The connections are serious — Jose L. Ortiz in the irons and trainer Peter Eurton sending him postward, and that 40% career win rate is elite company for a dirt mile at this level. The 2/1 morning line won't offer overlay value, but this looks like a horse who controls his own destiny. Back him to get the job done.

place1Gallo de FuegoML 8/1

Gallo de Fuego at 8/1 is the most interesting horse in the race from a value standpoint, posting a rating of 77.89 — second-best in the field — while going largely ignored by the morning-line makers. Gabriel Saez keeps the mount, and the horse's average speed figure is right there with the field's better runners. If Alston falters or gets caught in traffic, Gallo de Fuego is positioned to collect the place money at a price.

show10Stay for the BoomML 4/1

Stay for the Boom (programNumber 10) brings a 27% career win rate that's the highest among the serious contenders outside of Alston — that's a horse that finds the winner's circle. Trainer Christopher Davis keeps Luis Saez engaged for the spot, and a rating of 74.21 is comfortably ahead of the middle of the pack. At 4/1, he's not an overlay, but he's a sensible show anchor in your exotics.

Race 2

9:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The turf mile looks like a two-horse show on paper with a strong favorite sitting well clear of the field on TrackWiz ratings, but the place and show prices could deliver real value in a wide-open supporting cast.

win7Derry GirlML 5/2

Derry Girl is the class of this field by a comfortable margin — her 87.81 TrackWiz rating is a full 24 points clear of the next horse — and trainer Dale Romans knows how to spot a turf runner in the right spot. Gerardo Corrales gets the call, and while the 5/2 morning line makes her an odds-on candidate to get bet down further, the rating edge here is too large to ignore. This looks like a wire-to-wire or a dominant late-running performance depending on how the pace sets up.

place9Breaking HeartsML 10/1

Breaking Hearts at 10/1 is a genuine value play for the place spot, posting a 63.86 rating and a 16% career win rate that suggests she hits the board more often than her price implies. Edgar Morales takes the mount for trainer Genaro Garcia, and in a race where the second-tier is remarkably compressed in the 40s and 50s, Breaking Hearts sits meaningfully ahead. At double-digit odds, she makes for an excellent place play in an exacta or trifecta underneath Derry Girl.

show1GalatinaML 15/1

Galatina is a sneaky show inclusion at 15/1 with a 63.08 TrackWiz rating — actually the third-best figure in the race — despite being largely dismissed by the morning line. Gabriel Saez takes the ride for trainer James E. Baker, and while a 6% career win rate suggests she's a horse that runs well without always winning, she consistently puts in competitive efforts. At the price, she's worth weaving into exotics for show coverage.

Race 3

10:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight chaos over six furlongs on the dirt — sixteen first-time or lightly-raced runners with no career wins among them, making trainer and jockey connections the primary handicapping tool.

win14Clever OneML 3/1

Clever One (programNumber 14) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 in a race where the margins between horses are razor-thin, and the connections here are as strong as it gets. Jose L. Ortiz aboard and Mark E. Casse in the trainer's box is a combination that regularly delivers in maiden spots at major tracks. The 3/1 morning line suggests the market agrees, and with an average speed figure of 54, she's shown she can run. In a wide-open maiden sprint, having the most respected connections matters.

place4Katie JaneML 4/1

Katie Jane is a strong alternative at 4/1 for trainer Riley Mott, who is sharp in maiden spots. Her 55.0 rating is just a tick below Clever One, and Jaime A. Torres has been picking up quality mounts. With an average speed figure of 53, she has a workable foundation for a first-level sprint, and at a fair price she's a natural exacta partner to the top pick.

show13Flaming VerdictML 9/2

Flaming Verdict at 9/2 is the third horse in this select tier, carrying a 54.17 rating with the decorated Joel Rosario in the irons and Michael J. Maker training. Maker is one of the best in the business when it comes to prepping maiden runners, and Rosario's ability to put a horse in position on a sprint track is well established. No average speed to reference, which suggests debut or limited public work, but this pedigree of connections in a maiden sprint deserves respect.

The free portion of today's card kicks off with back-to-back claiming miles — one on dirt, one on turf — before switching gears to a 6-furlong maiden special weight sprint. Our top dirt pick, Alston (morning line 2/1, TrackWiz rating 88.54), leads the way in Race 1 and grades out as one of the stronger-rated horses on the entire card. On the turf side, Derry Girl (5/2 ML, 87.81 rating) looks like a prime contender in Race 2 — firm going suits the profile, and the rating backs the chalk.

Race 3 flips to maiden territory, where Clever One draws our top spot at 3/1 on the morning line. Maiden sprints on a hot, fast track can get chaotic, so we're leaning on TrackWiz's pace projections to sort out the chaos — and Clever One fits the bill. Three solid plays to start the day, all available right now with no subscription needed.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:30 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short-field allowance optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares where the TrackWiz model has uncovered a significant gap between the top two and the rest — this could be a two-horse race playing out at generous prices.

win4Her TownML 6/1

Her Town is the top-rated horse in this race at 82.71 and comes in with a remarkable 40% career win rate — among the highest you'll see in any field on the card today. Tyler Gaffalione is one of Churchill's most trusted riders, and Saffie A. Joseph Jr. is a trainer who consistently spots horses in winning positions. The 6/1 morning line looks like a gift given her profile, and TrackWiz analysis identifies her as the clear top choice in what shapes up as a legitimate value play at that price.

place3Miss EnchantedML 5/1

Miss Enchanted at 5/1 is a natural second here — 78.42 rating, 13% career win rate, and trainer Dale Romans sending her out with Martin Garcia aboard. Romans has a long history of placing horses effectively in allowance company at Churchill Downs, and Miss Enchanted's speed figure of 55 is among the best in the field. She could win outright but makes an even stronger case as the logical second finisher.

show6Madonna of LoretoML 3/1

Madonna of Loreto is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 with Luis Saez up for trainer Lacey Gaudet, which makes the 55.01 TrackWiz rating a bit underwhelming relative to her projected odds. That said, a 9% career win rate in allowance company is respectable, and Saez gives her every chance. She's a reasonable show anchor in exotics, especially if the pace gets hot and the top two are grinding each other down.

Race 5

10:59 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

First-time starters and lightly-raced maidens go 1 1/16 miles on the turf — a distance and surface combination that rewards horses with strong breeding and patient trainers, making the connections angle critical.

win6Roscoe GooseML 5/2

Roscoe Goose is the TrackWiz top pick at 57.5 and draws in as the 5/2 morning-line favorite for the formidable combination of Luis Saez and trainer Riley Mott. Mott is particularly sharp with turf maidens going two turns, understanding how to position horses for late runs at Churchill's demanding turf course. The average speed figure of 53 shows enough foundation to handle the distance, and the Saez-Mott partnership adds meaningful confidence to the selection.

place9Time in MotionML 7/2

Time in Motion (programNumber 9) sits at 55.83 on the TrackWiz scale — just behind Roscoe Goose — and Axel Concepcion takes the mount for trainer William Walden. The 7/2 morning line puts him at a fair price in a race where the ratings cluster tightly at the top. His average speed of 54 shows he's done something in the mornings, and in a first-time turf situation at this distance, a closer profile often finds a way to run into the money.

show5American VeteranML 9/2

American Veteran at 9/2 brings Jose L. Ortiz to the plate for trainer Cherie DeVaux, and that's a powerful combination in any maiden race. The 54.17 rating is squarely in the show tier, and DeVaux has been effective getting turf maidens ready to run. With no average speed figure available, this is likely a debut runner — but with Ortiz aboard, he'll get every opportunity to settle and fire late on the turf.

Race 6

11:28 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The maiden claiming field over a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt features a fascinating top tier where four horses rate within about a point of each other — legitimate pace intrigue here with multiple speed types and closers in the mix.

win6ThrottleML 3/1

Throttle is the narrow TrackWiz leader at 78.72 and comes in as the 3/1 morning-line choice with Florent Geroux in the irons for Brad H. Cox. Cox is one of Churchill Downs' premier trainers and knows how to have a maiden ready to fire, particularly at this distance where pace management matters. An average speed figure of 54 is workable, and with Geroux — who excels at rating horses and finding the right turn of foot — this has the makings of a confident front-running or stalking performance.

place2Private ShowML 8/1

Private Show at 8/1 is a compelling value play for the place, posting a 78.28 rating that's essentially deadlocked with the favorite while going off at nearly three times the price. The Asmussen barn — Steven M. Asmussen training, Keith J. Asmussen riding — is a family operation that takes these spots seriously, and the 52 average speed figure shows there's a base to work from. This is a live longshot price for what amounts to a near co-favorite on TrackWiz ratings.

show8IngleboroughML 6/1

Ingleborough at 6/1 is the third horse in this tight grouping at 77.67, saddled by Dale Romans with Luan Machado aboard. Romans regularly fires competitive maiden claimers, and Machado has been building momentum at this meet. The average speed of 54 is solid, and if this race gets hot up front — a real possibility given the tight ratings cluster — a horse with Ingleborough's profile can loom large in the stretch and collect show money at a reasonable price.

Race 7

11:57 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A competitive allowance optional claiming mile and a sixteenth on the dirt where two horses have separated themselves from the field on TrackWiz metrics, but a third runner's extraordinary career win percentage demands a closer look.

win7So SandyML 9/5

So Sandy is the TrackWiz top pick at 85.78 and the 9/5 morning-line favorite, with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons and Cherie DeVaux training. A 30% career win rate is strong in allowance company, and the combination of Ortiz — one of the leading jockeys in the country — and DeVaux's patient placement gives this horse every advantage. The 54 average speed figure matches up well at this distance, and TrackWiz analysis sees her as the most complete package in the field.

place1Gould's GoldML 9/2

Gould's Gold is less than a point behind the favorite at 84.90 — essentially a statistical tie — yet goes postward at 9/2 for trainer Kenneth G. McPeek with Emmanuel Esquivel up. McPeek is a seasoned conditioner who regularly challenges at the allowance level, and a 15% career win rate over what is likely a sizable sample suggests consistent competitiveness. If So Sandy gets bet to near even money and Gould's Gold drifts, there's real exacta value here.

show8MalarchukML 7/2

Malarchuk at 7/2 represents the third tier of this race with a 72.78 rating — a meaningful gap below the top two but comfortably ahead of the rest. Umberto Rispoli handles the mount for Michael W. McCarthy, who won't enter a horse in allowance company unless it's ready. The 27% career win rate and 54 average speed suggest a consistent, versatile performer, and in a race where the top two might battle each other, Malarchuk is well-positioned to collect show money.

Race 8

12:26 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 16-horse maiden claiming sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs — the biggest field on the card and the hardest to sort, but TrackWiz analysis has identified a trio of horses with meaningful rating advantages over the rest of the pack.

win5Mountain HighML 8/1

Mountain High (programNumber 5) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 — a full point ahead of the next horse — and does so at 8/1 on the morning line, making this a genuine overlay situation. Luan Machado gets the mount for trainer Ben Colebrook, and the 53 average speed figure shows this horse has put in real work. In a 16-horse field where pace can get messy, having the top-rated horse at a generous price is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis is designed to uncover.

place7Pursuit of FreedomML 4/1

Pursuit of Freedom (programNumber 7) rates second on TrackWiz at 78.34 and gets Jose L. Ortiz for trainer Peter Eurton — a combination that has produced winners in similar spots. The 4/1 morning line is a fair price given the horse's profile, and an average speed figure of 55 is the highest among the three top picks, suggesting she can be on or near the pace from the outset. In a sprint, early position matters, and Ortiz knows how to use it.

show1HyperlinkML 12/1

Hyperlink at 12/1 is a longer shot worth weaving into the exotics for the show spot. The 61.56 TrackWiz rating puts her well ahead of the mid-pack, and trainer Steven M. Asmussen with Luis Saez is never a combination to dismiss lightly, even at a big price. An average speed of 53 shows she can run, and in a wide-open 16-horse field, exotics prices in the trifecta and superfecta can get enormous — Hyperlink as a show inclusion could pay handsomely if the top two deliver.

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Bottom line: Churchill Downs puts up a clean eight-race card on a scorching Thursday afternoon, and TrackWiz has you covered top to bottom. Start with Alston, Derry Girl, and Clever One as your free best bets, and if you want the full picture — pace projections, value plays, and exotic ticket breakdowns through Race 8 — the complete analysis is one click away at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there, and may the speed figures be ever in your favor.

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