Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 17, 2026

Katie Jane is a strong alternative at 4/1 for trainer Riley Mott, who is sharp in maiden spots. Her 55.0 rating is just a tick below Clever One, and Jaime A. Torres has been picking up quality mounts. With an average speed figure of 53, she has a workable foundation for a first-level sprint, and at a fair price she's a natural exacta partner to the top pick.

Flaming Verdict at 9/2 is the third horse in this select tier, carrying a 54.17 rating with the decorated Joel Rosario in the irons and Michael J. Maker training. Maker is one of the best in the business when it comes to prepping maiden runners, and Rosario's ability to put a horse in position on a sprint track is well established. No average speed to reference, which suggests debut or limited public work, but this pedigree of connections in a maiden sprint deserves respect.

Miss Enchanted at 5/1 is a natural second here — 78.42 rating, 13% career win rate, and trainer Dale Romans sending her out with Martin Garcia aboard. Romans has a long history of placing horses effectively in allowance company at Churchill Downs, and Miss Enchanted's speed figure of 55 is among the best in the field. She could win outright but makes an even stronger case as the logical second finisher.

Madonna of Loreto is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 with Luis Saez up for trainer Lacey Gaudet, which makes the 55.01 TrackWiz rating a bit underwhelming relative to her projected odds. That said, a 9% career win rate in allowance company is respectable, and Saez gives her every chance. She's a reasonable show anchor in exotics, especially if the pace gets hot and the top two are grinding each other down.

Time in Motion (programNumber 9) sits at 55.83 on the TrackWiz scale — just behind Roscoe Goose — and Axel Concepcion takes the mount for trainer William Walden. The 7/2 morning line puts him at a fair price in a race where the ratings cluster tightly at the top. His average speed of 54 shows he's done something in the mornings, and in a first-time turf situation at this distance, a closer profile often finds a way to run into the money.

American Veteran at 9/2 brings Jose L. Ortiz to the plate for trainer Cherie DeVaux, and that's a powerful combination in any maiden race. The 54.17 rating is squarely in the show tier, and DeVaux has been effective getting turf maidens ready to run. With no average speed figure available, this is likely a debut runner — but with Ortiz aboard, he'll get every opportunity to settle and fire late on the turf.

Private Show at 8/1 is a compelling value play for the place, posting a 78.28 rating that's essentially deadlocked with the favorite while going off at nearly three times the price. The Asmussen barn — Steven M. Asmussen training, Keith J. Asmussen riding — is a family operation that takes these spots seriously, and the 52 average speed figure shows there's a base to work from. This is a live longshot price for what amounts to a near co-favorite on TrackWiz ratings.

Ingleborough at 6/1 is the third horse in this tight grouping at 77.67, saddled by Dale Romans with Luan Machado aboard. Romans regularly fires competitive maiden claimers, and Machado has been building momentum at this meet. The average speed of 54 is solid, and if this race gets hot up front — a real possibility given the tight ratings cluster — a horse with Ingleborough's profile can loom large in the stretch and collect show money at a reasonable price.

Gould's Gold is less than a point behind the favorite at 84.90 — essentially a statistical tie — yet goes postward at 9/2 for trainer Kenneth G. McPeek with Emmanuel Esquivel up. McPeek is a seasoned conditioner who regularly challenges at the allowance level, and a 15% career win rate over what is likely a sizable sample suggests consistent competitiveness. If So Sandy gets bet to near even money and Gould's Gold drifts, there's real exacta value here.

Malarchuk at 7/2 represents the third tier of this race with a 72.78 rating — a meaningful gap below the top two but comfortably ahead of the rest. Umberto Rispoli handles the mount for Michael W. McCarthy, who won't enter a horse in allowance company unless it's ready. The 27% career win rate and 54 average speed suggest a consistent, versatile performer, and in a race where the top two might battle each other, Malarchuk is well-positioned to collect show money.

Pursuit of Freedom (programNumber 7) rates second on TrackWiz at 78.34 and gets Jose L. Ortiz for trainer Peter Eurton — a combination that has produced winners in similar spots. The 4/1 morning line is a fair price given the horse's profile, and an average speed figure of 55 is the highest among the three top picks, suggesting she can be on or near the pace from the outset. In a sprint, early position matters, and Ortiz knows how to use it.

Hyperlink at 12/1 is a longer shot worth weaving into the exotics for the show spot. The 61.56 TrackWiz rating puts her well ahead of the mid-pack, and trainer Steven M. Asmussen with Luis Saez is never a combination to dismiss lightly, even at a big price. An average speed of 53 shows she can run, and in a wide-open 16-horse field, exotics prices in the trifecta and superfecta can get enormous — Hyperlink as a show inclusion could pay handsomely if the top two deliver.