Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 20, 2026

Irish Gent posts an 80.22 rating — second only to our win pick — and Francisco Arrieta navigates the outside post in a field this large, which can actually be advantageous on Churchill's turf course. Trainer Sandino Hernandez Jr. has placed this horse perfectly, and a 7/2 morning line in a 16-horse field is workable. He's the logical place horse and an automatic inclusion in exactas with The Town.

Kick a Buck rounds out our vertical coverage at 57.5 rating with Luis Saez in the irons for the reliable Joe Sharp barn. Sharp consistently delivers competitive horses at Churchill, and Saez will have his pick of trips in a 16-horse field. At 6/1, Kick a Buck is a solid show option and a value piece in the trifecta underneath the top two rated horses.

Side Quest holds a 56.67 rating — right behind our top pick — and the William Walden barn sends her out at a very fair 3/1 price with Axel Concepcion up. Walden is quietly one of the more underrated conditioners in this region, and Concepcion has been riding with confidence. The rating separation from the middle of the field is meaningful, and Side Quest figures to be in the mix in the final sixteenth.

Major Rager is an intriguing show play at 7/2 with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons for the powerful Joe Sharp barn — Sharp consistently puts up competitive runners at Churchill, and when Ortiz books a maiden, it often means the connections like what they've seen in the mornings. A 55.83 rating in a field this thin at the top gives Major Rager a legitimate shot at hitting the board. He's a natural exotic piece in this deep field.

Diamond Eyed Jack is the value play in this race — a 68.06 rating that's virtually identical to our win pick, yet he's available at 10/1 on the morning line with Ben Curtis aboard for the Brendan Walsh barn. Walsh is a top-tier trainer on turf, and Curtis is one of the sharper jockeys in the country on the grass. The price-to-rating ratio here is excellent, and Diamond Eyed Jack is the horse we'd target most aggressively in the exacta.

Turbo Launch is another live contender at a double-digit morning line — 67.6 rating, third-best in the field, and Junior Alvarado pilots for Linda Rice, a trainer with a solid turf record. The 10/1 price on a horse within a point of the field leader is a genuine overlay, and Turbo Launch is the kind of show price that can make a trifecta enormously profitable if the top two hold form.

Shared Vision sits at 73.96 — just a whisker behind Grand Luxx — with a 25% career win rate and Edgar Morales in the irons for George Arnold II. The 12/1 morning line is eye-opening for a horse this close to the field leader in our ratings, and Arnold has a track record of running live horses at prices. Shared Vision is the clearest value play on the card in the place position, and pairing him with Grand Luxx in an exacta at those odds could be very lucrative.

French Blue at 7/2 brings a 67.41 rating and the pedigree of the Bob Baffert barn, with Irad Ortiz Jr. up — two names that immediately elevate any horse's ceiling. A 20% career win rate is acceptable at allowance level, and Baffert's horses often improve sharply around their second or third starts. French Blue projects as the logical favorite-adjacent show option for bettors who want a safer bottom rung in the trifecta.

Quarry posts an 82.71 rating with Brian Hernandez Jr. up for Thomas Drury Jr. — a trainer who has been placing horses well on the Churchill turf. A 10% career win rate understates a horse that our model rates this highly, and at 6/1 on the morning line, Quarry offers genuine value underneath. He's the prime exacta partner with Abbi Fede and a horse that should be on every trifecta ticket.

Snare rounds out our top three with an 81.62 rating and Ben Curtis in the irons for Paul McGee, a trainer known for running sharp turf horses. An average speed of 56 — tied for highest in the field — is a meaningful edge in a one-mile turf race where finishing kick matters. At 5/1, Snare is properly priced as a show option and adds depth to exotics in what figures to be a very competitive stretch drive.

Lotsandlotsofcandy actually outranks the morning line favorite in our model at 75.3, and a 57% career win rate is the best in this stakes field — that is a staggering number for a horse competing at this level. Rafael Bejarano is a seasoned stakes rider for the Paul McGee barn, and Lotsandlotsofcandy's highest average speed figure in the field at 57 is a real asset in a seven-furlong dirt stakes. At 5/1, she's our top value play of the entire card.

Eclatant opens as the 6/5 morning line favorite — the public trusts Irad Ortiz Jr. and the Brad Cox barn, and rightfully so — but our model places her third at 74.71 rating behind Usha and Lotsandlotsofcandy. A 62% career win rate is exceptional, and Cox-trained horses rarely show up without being genuinely ready. Even at short odds, she's a responsible show option in trifectas because a top-three finish in a stakes field this good is hardly a stretch.

The Pretty One is the value gem of this race — a 69.58 rating that's second-best in the field, yet she's sitting at 15/1 on the morning line with Brooke Bays up for Yimi Alvarez. The enormous gap between her rating and her odds is one of the more glaring overlays on the entire card, and in maiden claiming races, price discrepancies like this are exactly where value bettors thrive. Play her confidently in the place slot and lean hard on the exacta with Diagram.

She's Gotta Go rounds out our selections with a 68.74 rating and the powerful Steven Asmussen barn behind her, with Brian Hernandez Jr. up at 6/1. Asmussen and Hernandez have combined to win countless races at Churchill Downs, and maiden claiming sprints are a spot where that barn regularly dominates. She's a natural show selection and a necessary piece in trifecta coverage given the stable's consistently high rate of placing horses on the board.