Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 18, 2026

Thursday, June 18, 20268 racesChurchill Downs

Churchill Downs serves up an eight-race card on Thursday, June 18th under a cloudy sky and a warm 82°F. The overcast conditions are worth watching — soft, filtered light and mild temperatures tend to keep the turf lively, and we've got a pair of grass sprints on today's slate that could be sharply contested.

The card stretches across both surfaces and a wide range of conditions, from maiden special weights kicking things off to a turf allowance closing things out. Distance options range from 5½ furlongs to 1⅛ miles, so there's something here for every handicapping style — pace analysts, form players, and trainer-angle hunters alike.

TrackWiz has broken down all eight races. The first three are open to everyone; the back five are where the real meat of the card lives, and those are reserved for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint with 16 runners and almost no prior speed figures to lean on — trainer and jockey power will do a lot of the heavy lifting here.

win4Ez PalML 5/2

Ez Pal tops our TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 and draws a potent connections duo in Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz Jr. — a combo that consistently delivers in maiden turf sprints. Ward is one of the sharpest conditioners in the country for first-time turf runners, particularly at sprint distances, and 5½ furlongs on grass suits his typical barn style perfectly. With no meaningful speed figures in this maiden field to challenge Ez Pal's rating edge, the 5/2 morning line looks about right and possibly even beatable.

place8AugustML 7/2

August checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83 and the powerful Mark Casse/Jose Ortiz alliance aboard — a combination that fires at a high clip in maiden grass races. Casse runs a deep stable and routinely puts up competitive debutants on the turf, so don't let the zero career wins fool you. At 7/2, August offers solid each-way value in what figures to be a competitive exotic ticket.

show14Tic Tic TicML 4/1

Tic Tic Tic sports a 55.0 TrackWiz rating and a sharp booking in Michael Maker's barn, a trainer who knows how to spot a turf type and place them correctly. Irad Ortiz Jr. doubles up in this race, which tells you something about his confidence level across both mounts. At 4/1, Tic Tic Tic is worth including in trifecta coverage given Maker's solid maiden turf record.

Race 2

9:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't our top-rated horse in this claiming sprint — there's a significant rating gap between the top two and the rest, setting up a potential two-horse battle that could be exploited in exacta play.

win3Derby DateML 3/1

Derby Date leads all comers with an 86.36 TrackWiz rating despite carrying just a 9% career win rate, suggesting this horse may finally be hitting a form cycle that warrants more respect. Trainer Armando Hernandez sends out Emmanuel Esquivel, and the 3/1 morning line makes Derby Date one of the strongest value-to-rating correlations on this card. At 6½ furlongs on dirt, the distance should suit a horse who has been pointed toward a race like this.

place4IlliniML 8/1

Illini is a sneaky-good place contender here — an 8/1 morning line on a horse with a 25% career win rate and a solid 79.79 TrackWiz rating is genuinely mispriced. Brittany Vanden Berg has been quietly effective at Churchill Downs, and Abel Cedillo is a capable rider who can save ground out of post 4. If Derby Date fires, Illini looks like the most logical threat to land the place spot.

show1CatamountML 5/1

Catamount brings the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 37% and a TrackWiz rating of 77.63 — that's a horse who knows how to win and hits the board regularly. Trainer Anna Meah and jockey Danny Sheehy are a familiar tandem at this level, and at 5/1, Catamount is a comfortable show inclusion in exacta and trifecta wagers. The consistency here is real.

Race 3

9:58 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

One horse dominates the ratings in this starter allowance, but the pace scenario and a pair of live closers make the exotics worth constructing carefully.

win6GewurztraminerML 7/5

Gewurztraminer is the standout at 89.42 — the highest TrackWiz rating in today's Race 3 field by a wide margin — and draws Irad Ortiz Jr., one of the best big-race jockeys in the business. A 31% career win rate is elite at any level, and trainer Kinnon LaRose clearly has this horse primed at 7/5. The short price reflects the horse's class edge, and while the value isn't enormous, this looks like a deserving chalk play.

place9Military RoadML 3/1

Military Road comes in at 75.28 with a 25% career win rate and the red-hot Tyler Gaffalione in the irons for David Jacobson — a trainer-jockey tandem with real chemistry. Gaffalione is one of Churchill's most effective closers and could benefit from any pace pressure up front. At 3/1, Military Road is a legitimate place threat and a key part of any exacta underneath Gewurztraminer.

show8UnderdressedML 10/1

Underdressed is an interesting third wheel here — a 69.5 TrackWiz rating, 18% career win rate, and the Steven Asmussen barn behind the horse is nothing to dismiss. Erik Asmussen takes the mount, keeping it in the family, and at 10/1 this horse represents real overlay value for show bettors and trifecta builders who want to broaden the ticket. Asmussen trainers at Churchill Downs historically hit the board at a solid clip.

Our three free races today span both surfaces and give you a solid foundation before the card heats up. Ez Pal opens the day on the turf at 5/2 morning line — a maiden special weight sprint where early pace shape could be decisive. In Race 2, Derby Date draws our eye in a six-and-a-half furlong dirt claimer at 3/1, posting a strong TrackWiz rating of 86.36 that suggests this morning line may be leaving a little value on the table. Then comes our highest-rated free pick of the day: Gewurztraminer in the Race 3 starter allowance, clocking in at 89.42 and going off at 7/5 — that's the kind of number that makes a short-priced favorite worth backing with confidence.

One thread connecting today's free picks is surface fitness — all three top selections show form patterns that align well with current conditions at Churchill. On a warm, cloudy afternoon, the turf should be running true, and the dirt looks conventional. No exotic bias to fight today, which means clean form reads tend to hold up.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:27 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't our top pick in this maiden claiming mile — a significant ratings upset is very much on the table, and the value case for the win horse is compelling.

win4HellaciousML 6/1

Hellacious tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful gap between what the market says and what our analysis says. Gabriel Saez pilots for trainer Niccolo Troiani, and with an average speed figure of 54, Hellacious has shown the ability to run a number at this distance. The extra distance of a mile on dirt favors a horse with Hellacious's rating profile, and the value at 6/1 is too good to pass up.

place5Susan's BoyML 6/5

Susan's Boy is the 6/5 favorite and figures to generate significant early fractions at a mile on dirt — the Ben Colebrook barn is active at this meet, and Dylan Machado has the rail call. A 67.48 TrackWiz rating is respectable, and Susan's Boy's average speed figure of 52 is competitive for this level. Even at short odds, this horse lands on the ticket as a place backup given the market support.

show2KuchML 7/2

Kuch brings a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and the powerful Brendan Walsh/Tyler Gaffalione combo — one of the most consistent pairings in the Churchill Downs barn area. The average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the competitive range for this maiden claiming field. At 7/2, Kuch is a reasonable show bet for casual players and a trifecta anchor for exotic players who want a bit of chalk coverage.

Race 5

10:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A packed 15-horse turf claiming sprint with a clear ratings hierarchy at the top — but pace scenario and post position could scramble things quickly in a field this large.

win11Dark VintageML 7/2

Dark Vintage leads all horses with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the field at 58 — that's genuine class in a turf sprint. Trainer Scott Becker sends out Dark Vintage with a 27% career win rate, which signals a horse who consistently converts on the right day. Tyler Gaffalione knows this surface as well as anyone at Churchill, and 7/2 on a horse this well-rated represents solid value.

place5ExplorationML 9/2

Exploration checks in at 83.39 on our ratings with a 28% career win rate — another high-percentage horse who finds the board regularly. Trainer David Jacobson angles Luan Machado into post 5, a workable gate in this big field, and the 9/2 morning line leaves room for a real overlay. If the pace heats up in a field this big, Exploration's running style and experience could make this horse the go-to exacta partner with Dark Vintage.

show12Three ZeroML 6/1

Three Zero sits at 82.71 with a 10% career win rate — the win percentage is modest, but Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons for Carlos David elevates the floor considerably. An average speed of 57 matches up well with the top contenders, and at 6/1, Three Zero is a trifecta must in a race where spreads can pay. Don't sleep on the Ortiz factor in a field this deep.

Race 6

11:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A contentious maiden claiming route where the morning-line favorite doesn't top our ratings — the top-rated horse goes off at more than twice the morning-line price of the chalk.

win3Bourbon RageML 7/2

Bourbon Rage leads all horses in Race 6 with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and goes off at a juicy 7/2 — well above the 2/1 morning-line favorite Both Sides of Bad. Trainer Darrin Miller puts Luan Machado up, and with an average speed figure of 52 in a field where many horses are at the same level, Bourbon Rage's ratings edge could prove decisive at 1 1/16 miles. This is the kind of race where our analysis diverges sharply from the public, and that divergence is where the value lives.

place8Both Sides of BadML 2/1

Both Sides of Bad is the market's choice at 2/1 and carries a 78.66 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — with an average speed of 54, which is the best figure among the top three contenders. Trainer Helen Pitts sends out Jaime Torres, and a horse this sharp on speed figures going 1 1/16 miles on dirt can absolutely earn a place check even if Bourbon Rage fires. The 2/1 price makes it a place hedge rather than a value win bet.

show4WhateverML 9/2

Whatever rates at 77.9 and connects Trainer Paul McGee with Rafael Bejarano — a veteran rider who can rate a horse perfectly at a route distance. An average speed of 52 is in line with the field, and at 9/2, Whatever is the kind of show horse that can quietly hit the board while the favorites battle it out. Trifecta bettors should include Whatever at this price.

Race 7

11:54 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A starter allowance going seven furlongs on dirt where our top-rated horse is being offered at a generous morning-line price — value abounds at the top of the ticket.

win2Sharons BeachML 6/1

Sharons Beach tops Race 7 at 82.71 on TrackWiz ratings and draws Luis Saez for trainer Jonathan Thomas — a horse at 6/1 despite being our clear top selection. A 16% career win rate is modest, but the average speed figure of 55 matches the upper tier of this field, and the seven-furlong distance on dirt is a genuine sweet spot. Sharons Beach at 6/1 is the kind of bet that makes a winning day profitable, not just correct.

place6PalaciosML 5/2

Palacios rates at 77.61 and carries a 25% career win rate — one of the best conversion rates in this field — with Irad Ortiz Jr. doing the steering for trainer William Walden. The 5/2 morning line reflects the market's respect for this horse, and an average speed of 55 puts Palacios right in the thick of pace considerations. An exacta of Sharons Beach over Palacios is the core ticket in this race.

show3AtterseeML 9/2

Attersee posts a 63.9 TrackWiz rating with Tyler Gaffalione up for Norm Casse — a barn that is firing consistently at this meet. A 12% career win rate is on the lower side, but at 9/2, Attersee offers meaningful show value and trifecta coverage in a race where the top three ratings are reasonably separated from the rest of the field. Gaffalione's ability to get a horse into position early on a seven-furlong dirt track is an edge worth factoring in.

Race 8

12:23 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A full-field allowance turf route anchored by a clear ratings favorite — the question is whether a double-digit field at 1 1/8 miles on grass creates enough pace chaos to topple the chalk.

win5SuperchargerML 8/5

Supercharger sits at 89.12 on our ratings — the highest mark in today's Race 8 field — and goes off at 8/5 with Jose Ortiz in the irons for Cherie DeVaux. A 25% career win rate is strong for an allowance turf field, and an average speed figure of 53 is right in line with what's needed here. This is the kind of horse you build your ticket around rather than fight against — the rating is dominant enough to inspire confidence at a sprint-to-route distance.

place8My Boy TonyML 4/1

My Boy Tony carries a 73.04 TrackWiz rating and the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. for trainer Eddie Kenneally — a sharp placing at 4/1 that represents fair value relative to the favorite. The average speed figure of 54 actually edges Supercharger by a tick and could matter at a distance as long as 1 1/8 miles on turf. My Boy Tony looks like the prime exacta partner with Supercharger and a strong standalone place wager.

show1TelescopicML 8/1

Telescopic rounds out our Race 8 selections at 68.66 with Tyler Gaffalione up for Victoria Oliver — a trainer who spots horses well in grass routes. A 7% career win rate is low, but at 8/1, Telescopic is a classic show overlay, the type of horse that can quietly run into third while the heavy hitters battle for the top spots. Trifecta players at this price level can build some profit margin by including Telescopic on the bottom of their tickets.

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Bottom line: today's Churchill card has more teeth than a mid-week summer slate usually shows. Gewurztraminer is our strongest free play, and the premium card has at least two spots where we see real overlay potential. Free picks are live now — full eight-race analysis, exotic tickets, and pace maps are waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and may your tickets cash clean.

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