Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 13, 2026

Countthetrue draws the rail for Wayne Catalano and Victor Carrasco, rated 55.83 — the second-best mark in a very compressed field. Catalano is a Churchill staple who understands the bias at this track, and the inside post in a short sprint can be a gift if this one breaks cleanly. At 7/2, there's a touch of value relative to the morning-line favorite.

Mels Daisy gets Florent Geroux for John Hancock and sits at 4/1 on the morning line with a 55.00 rating — right in the mix in what is essentially a pick-your-poison debut field. Geroux is one of the most experienced riders at Churchill Downs and can coax a clean trip out of a green horse. As a show play in a maiden sprint, the 4/1 price makes her an attractive exotic inclusion.

Sassy and Bold rates second in the field at 76.95 and owns a 28% career win rate — the second-best in the field. Declan Cannon picks up the mount for Brian Knippenberg, and with an average speed of 55 matching the top mark, she should be competitive throughout. If anything goes wrong with the chalk, Sassy and Bold is positioned to capitalize.

Talkin in Cursive rounds out our picks at a 66.90 rating with a 23% career win rate and an average speed of 55 — she fits the pace profile in a field of 6.5-furlong sprinters. Jaime Torres gets the ride for Matt Shirer, and at 9/2, there's genuine show value if the race shape sets up for a stalker. A solid exotic anchor in the bottom position.

Different Gravy is the value angle in this race, going off at 5/1 with an impressive 40% career win rate — second only to Consolidated in the field. Mitchell Murrill rides for Eddie Kenneally, and while the 73.58 rating puts him well below Pagode, the win percentage screams horse who fires fresh and competes hard. In a field with multiple question marks, a 40% winner at 5/1 is hard to ignore for the place.

Chillax is our show selection at 15/1 on the morning line — a genuine longshot angle. The 64.29 rating isn't flashy, but David Jacobson also saddles House United in this same race, suggesting he has confidence in at least one of them. Rafael Bejarano is an experienced hand in routes, and if the pace scenario gets honest over 1 3/16 miles and a closer gets loose, Chillax could be the name you're happy to see in the exotic payouts.

House Boat Party draws post 8 for Brian Lynch with Florent Geroux, rated 55.00 — second in the field. Lynch is a capable conditioner at Churchill, and Geroux's experience getting horses to relax in their first start is a real asset in a maiden sprint. At 4/1, there's overlay potential here if the Casse entry attracts heavier-than-deserved action.

Smidgeon gets the Steve Asmussen-Keith Asmussen family combination — always worth noting when the conditioner puts his son aboard, it often signals genuine intent. Rated 54.17 and going at 9/2, Smidgeon sits third in our ratings and rounds out a logical top three in what is a genuinely unpredictable first-out sprint. Solid show inclusion in horizontal wagers.

She's Lookin Lucky rates third in the field at 69.40 and draws the 3-hole for Matt Shirer with Florent Geroux — the same Geroux who figures to get a feel for the turf course early in the card. A 53 average speed figure and a 5/2 morning line make her one of the shorter-priced place plays of the day. The 12% career win rate is modest, but on turf where pace flow and trip luck matter more, she fits neatly in the exacta.

Miwa is an interesting show inclusion at 9/2 for Joe Sharp with Axel Concepcion. Her 60 average speed figure is the highest in the field by a wide margin — that kind of raw number on turf can translate to a powerful mid-race move if the pace is honest. The 54.93 rating and 14% career win rate suggest she's still finding her best, but at nearly 5/1, she's a worthwhile exotic piece.

Zambezi is the chalk at 8/5 for Michael Maker with Florent Geroux — a power barn-jockey combo that demands respect. The 78.85 rating and 54 average speed figure are both legitimate, and Maker horses at Churchill rarely show up unprepared. We have Lunar Module rated ahead, but Zambezi's place probability is high enough that fading him entirely in the exotics would be a mistake.

Honky Tonk Highway rates third in the field at 71.44 with Gabriel Saez aboard for Joe Sharp. A 55 average speed figure and 15% career win rate are competitive for this level, and the 4/1 morning line gives show bettors a fair return. In a ten-horse field going an odd distance, pace dynamics get complicated — Honky Tonk Highway profiles as a stalker type who could be running on at the wire.

Percy's Bar is the 7/5 morning-line favorite with Luan Machado for Ben Colebrook, and a 42% career win rate is hard to dismiss — that's a horse that wins almost half the time he runs. Rated 76.97 — second in the field — he'll be tough to run down if he gets loose on the lead or sits a perfect trip. At short odds, win value is limited, but place money is very likely to cash.

Point of Reference is our show selection at 10/1 for Chad Brown with Florent Geroux — and any time Brown ships a horse to Churchill for a stakes race, it pays to ask why. A 66% career win rate is the second-highest in the field and is remarkable for any stakes horse. Rated 70.17 and going at double-digit odds, this is the kind of horse that quietly lands in the exotics and makes your ticket a monster.

Echo Lane is our value play at 10/1 for Rohan Crichton with Francisco Arrieta — a 27% career win rate and a 76.88 rating make him the second-best rated horse in the field. A 55 average speed figure is competitive at this distance, and 1 3/8 miles on turf rewards horses that can sustain a pace over a long way. At 10/1, the place overlay here is substantial if Burnham Square runs his race and Echo Lane is the one chasing him home.

Parchment Party goes for William Mott with Junior Alvarado and carries a 71.36 rating with a 46% career win rate — that win percentage is the highest in the field by a considerable margin. Mott horses in stakes spots at Churchill tend to be very live, and the 6/1 morning line reflects some market respect. As a show inclusion in a field anchored by a heavy favorite, Parchment Party at 6/1 is a high-probability exotic piece.

Epic Proud Mary draws a strong rating of 56.67 and gets Florent Geroux for Brian Lynch — a trainer who has already shown up multiple times on today's card and clearly has his horses sharp. Going at 3/1 on the morning line, she's second in our ratings and profiles as the most likely horse to run Kaykay down if the Baffert entry encounters any trouble. An 'A' effort from Lynch-Geroux in a debut sprint is very much on the table.

Via Artista rates 55.00 — third in the field — with Axel Concepcion riding for Cherie DeVaux at 4/1. DeVaux is a trainer who takes care with debut runners and Concepcion is in excellent form with multiple mounts today. In a 16-horse field, getting a 4/1 show price on a horse rated in the top three is solid value, and Via Artista rounds out a logical trifecta key in the nightcap.