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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — April 25, 2026

April 25, 202610 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

This card ran on April 25, 2026.

Best bets at Churchill Downs, April 25, 2026

Race 16Pure JoyML 8/512:45 PM EDT

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Here's our expert breakdown of today's 10-race card at Churchill Downs. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 10 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.

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Race 1

12:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Pure Joy looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win6Pure JoyML 8/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.1 for Race 1. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Steven M. Asmussen. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.55 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 24% win rate and finished in the money in 53% of races. Placed in 3 of 3 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of 3 at Medium Distance races. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 12.32 sec/furlong. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place5Plaza CueML 2/1

Rating board at 78.6. Ridden by Luis Saez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.58 sec/furlong. Placed in 7 of 9 races on Dirt tracks.

show3Ati GirlML 3/1

Rating board at 60.8. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Happy Away looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win5Happy AwayML 7/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 59.3 for Race 2. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., trained by Wesley A. Ward. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 27% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races.

place1Sargent BilkoML 7/2

Rating board at 55.8. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 11.87 sec/furlong.

⚡ Longshot4TigradoML 8/1

Rating board at 48.3. Ridden by Evin A. Roman. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.05 sec/furlong. Has placed in 1 of the last 1 races.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Lady Orient looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win3Lady OrientML 6/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.7 for Race 3. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Kinnon LaRose. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.51 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. 1 wins and placed in 5 of 7 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 5 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 2 of 3 races at 1 mi. Placed in 2 of 3 races at Churchill Downs. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.75 sec/furlong. Horse won last time it raced. 03/09/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place2BarbratinaML 2/1

Rating board at 64.3 • 28% career wins. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 52% of races.

show4Mint DrivenML 12/1

Rating board at 52.8. Ridden by Gabriel Saez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.91 sec/furlong. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

3:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Upturned Brim looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win4Upturned BrimML 4/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.6 for Race 4. Ridden by Axel Concepcion, trained by J. Keith Desormeaux. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.12 sec/furlong. 3 wins and placed in 10 of 15 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 5 of the last 6 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 4 of 4 races at 6 fur. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 12.05 sec/furlong. Claiming Price Decreased from $20000 to $12500.

place5Lord MajestyML 5/2

Rating board at 83.2 • 23% career wins. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.12 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races.

show1IlliniML 3/1

Rating board at 72.5 • 23% career wins. Ridden by James Graham. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.15 sec/furlong. 5 wins and placed in 9 of 16 races on Dirt tracks.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

3:38 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Wistucky looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1WistuckyML 7/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.4 for Race 5. Ridden by Luis Saez, trained by Bobby S. Dibona. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.21 sec/furlong. 2 wins and placed in 9 of 16 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 3 of 3 races at 6 1/2 fur. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.86 sec/furlong. Horse won last time it raced. 03/28/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place3ExplorationML 3/1

Rating board at 78.3. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.37 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.

⚡ Longshot5Michael's CoveML 20/1

Rating board at 17.3. Ridden by Edgar Morales. Horse won last time it raced. 03/12/2026.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

4:12 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Velveteen looks standout with daylight to the rest.

⚡ Longshot1Cookie TimeML 8/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 48.3 for Race 6. Ridden by John McKee, trained by Thomas Drury, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 52% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 33% win rate and finished in the money in 68% of races. Claiming Price Decreased from $30000 to $12500.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 7

4:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Goodbetterbest looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win7GoodbetterbestML 4/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.6 for Race 7. Career win rate of 27% shows consistency. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, trained by Brittany A. Vanden Berg. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.82 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Has 5 wins and placed in 8 of 9 races at 1 mi. Placed in 2 of 2 races at Churchill Downs. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 12.10 sec/furlong. 5 wins and placed in 9 of 12 races on Turf tracks. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

5:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Army Wildcatter looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win7Army WildcatterML 6/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 82.7 for Race 8. Career win rate of 33% shows consistency. Ridden by Alex Achard, trained by John Ennis. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.42 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 3 of 4 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 3 of the last 4 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 3 of 4 of Sprint races. Ranked 4th in workouts over last month at 12.13 sec/furlong.

place3Shadow CoastML 7/2

Rating board at 78.5. Ridden by Luis Saez. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.13 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 52% of races.

⚡ Longshot4A Cab On the RocksML 8/1

Rating board at 51.9. Ridden by Jaime A. Torres. Horse won last time it raced. 03/12/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 9

5:46 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Lotsandlotsofcandy looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win4LotsandlotsofcandyML 7/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 86.3 for Race 9. Career win rate of 66% shows consistency. Ridden by Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr., trained by Paul J. McGee. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.63 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. 4 wins and placed in 5 of 6 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 3 of the last 4 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 3 of 3 races at 6 fur. 2 wins and placed in 3 of 3 races at Churchill Downs. Jockey & Horse combo has a 16% win rate and finished in the money in 46% of races. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.45 sec/furlong. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 10

6:16 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Ashley's Archer looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win2Ashley's ArcherML 9/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 84.9 for Race 10. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Mark E. Casse. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 11.96 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.79 sec/furlong.

place8Treaty of RomeML 4/1

Rating board at 81.7 • 25% career wins. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.14 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races.

⚡ Longshot13Write Off JerryML 10/1

Rating board at 72.7. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 52% of races.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

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