Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — April 25, 2026
Here's our expert breakdown of today's 10-race card at Churchill Downs. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 10 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
2026-04-25T16:45:00Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Pure Joy looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.1 for Race 1. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Steven M. Asmussen. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.55 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 24% win rate and finished in the money in 53% of races. Placed in 3 of 3 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of 3 at Medium Distance races. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 12.32 sec/furlong. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.
Rating board at 78.6. Ridden by Luis Saez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.58 sec/furlong. Placed in 7 of 9 races on Dirt tracks.
Rating board at 60.8. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.
Race 2
2026-04-25T17:20:00Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Happy Away looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 59.3 for Race 2. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., trained by Wesley A. Ward. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 27% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races.
Rating board at 55.8. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 11.87 sec/furlong.
Rating board at 48.3. Ridden by Evin A. Roman. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.05 sec/furlong. Has placed in 1 of the last 1 races.
Race 3
2026-04-25T17:56:00Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Lady Orient looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.7 for Race 3. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Kinnon LaRose. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.51 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. 1 wins and placed in 5 of 7 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 5 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 2 of 3 races at 1 mi. Placed in 2 of 3 races at Churchill Downs. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.75 sec/furlong. Horse won last time it raced. 03/09/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.
Rating board at 64.3 • 28% career wins. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 52% of races.
Rating board at 52.8. Ridden by Gabriel Saez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.91 sec/furlong. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races.
Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.
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Good luck at Churchill Downs today! Remember to check back for live odds updates and follow us for real-time picks throughout the card. Subscribe to TrackWiz for full access to every race at every track.