Charles Town Picks & Predictions — November 14, 2026

Goldeck is the morning line favorite at 6/5 and wins the most TrackWiz simulations at 30.65% — his raw probability is the highest in the field. He ranks third in recent speed (12.83 sec/furlong) and second in workouts (12.20 sec/furlong), so he's sharp heading in. The concern is that he's placed in only one of his last five races and has just one hit at Charles Town in five tries — recent form and local record both give pause. Good enough to include, particularly in exotics.

Golden Boss Man rates third in the field at 82.37 and has that elite jockey-trainer combination working in his favor — Santaella and trainer Ronney Brown have combined for a 28% win rate and 64% in-the-money rate over the past year, which is a strong angle in a short field. He does rank sixth in recent pace figures, and he's the only horse in the field not on Lasix while six rivals are, which is a real concern worth noting. That said, a 42% career in-the-money rate and elite connections keep him firmly in the show conversation.

George posts the fastest recent speed figure in the race at 12.19 sec/furlong and owns a career in-the-money rate of 63% from 22 dirt starts — four wins in the bank on this surface. He's also hit the board in his last two races. The age concern is noted in the data, and his jockey grade (C+) is below the standard, but the form is sharp and those speed figures are hard to ignore at 9/5. He's the horse the crowd is on for a reason.

King Kontie gives you a compelling pace piece — his recent figure of 12.32 sec/furlong ranks third in the field and his career dirt record shows 2 wins from 16 starts with a 60% in-the-money rate. The claiming price increase from $5,000 to $10,000 is a concern, as is the three-race out-of-the-money streak. But a horse with that kind of board percentage and sharp recent speed belongs in the exotics, particularly in a six-horse field where he can't get too far away.

Ojin checks in as the second-highest rated horse at 84.17 and has put together three consecutive in-the-money finishes — the best recent form line in this field for a maiden. She ranks third in recent speed at 12.80 sec/furlong and has placed in three of her last five overall. The one flag is that she's the only horse not on Lasix while six rivals are, which can matter. At 5/1, she's solid value for the place slot given her form consistency.

Serendipitymonday rates third in the field at 72.39 and ranks second in recent speed at 12.63 sec/furlong — the figures say she belongs in this race. She's placed in two of four career dirt starts, which is respectable. The complications are real, though: 412 days off the track is a significant layoff, and the data notes she actually performs better with shorter rest. That cuts against her, but the speed figures and dirt record make her an interesting show play if you believe the fitness held over a long layoff.

Saint Paddy's Day is the morning line favorite at 2/1 for good reason — a 28% career win rate and a stunning 85% in-the-money rate from 7 dirt starts, with 2 wins in that sample. He ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 83.46, and the Santaella/Brown jockey-trainer duo posts a 28% win rate together. The sim win share of 25.91% is actually higher than Knight Sage's, which tells you how respected this horse is. He's the logical place key.

Gurney Halleck slots in third in the ratings at 82.54 and benefits from one of the meet's hottest human angles — jockey Arnaldo Bocachica has a 34% win rate and 72% in-the-money rate over the past year, and together with trainer Jeff Runco they've posted a 39% win rate. That jockey-trainer combination alone is worth including in exotics. He ranks third in recent speed at 12.59 sec/furlong and owns a 63% career in-the-money rate. If the top two disappoint, he's positioned to collect.

God's Pride rates second in the field at 84.77 and has the fastest recent speed figure in the race at 12.31 sec/furlong — that's the top raw number and a real edge going long. His career profile is extraordinary: a 50% win rate and 87% in-the-money mark, including 4 wins from 8 dirt starts. Santaella (Grade B+) has ridden him effectively, and that 19.95% sim win share is healthy. At 3/1, there's a case he should be closer to favoritism.

Petty Perfect has placed in every single race during his last four starts and owns a 78% career in-the-money rate from 28 dirt outings — 8 wins in that sample is legitimate stakes-level consistency. He ranks second in recent speed at 12.39 sec/furlong, and trainer Kristy Petty (Grade A-) knows this horse well. At 6/1, he's priced as a third horse but his form line and in-the-money consistency make him the kind of show play you feel good about in a stakes field.

Yes to Love ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 80.52 and has placed in four of his last six starts — consistent, dependable form. He ranks third in recent speed at 12.77 sec/furlong and owns four career wins from 35 dirt starts. The 5/2 morning line is competitive, and his 22.21% sim share makes him the second-most likely winner in the field. If Sophistry hits a rough trip, Yes to Love has the form to capitalize.

Over the Bull gives you a powerful dirt profile to anchor the show slot — 6 wins from 25 career dirt starts and a 52% in-the-money rate, with four money finishes in his last six. Trainer Michael Sterling (Grade A) is among the stronger conditioners in this race, and the horse has been consistent enough that including him in exactas and trifectas below the top two makes real sense. At 7/2, he's a reasonable price for a proven performer.