Charles Town Picks & Predictions — November 13, 2026

Navy Band rates just a hair behind at 86.76 and brings the best recent speed figure in the field — 11.80 sec/furlong, which stands out in a 4½-furlong sprint where early pace matters. Five placings in the last six starts speak to consistent, reliable form, and a 75% career in-the-money rate across 24 dirt starts is the mark of a horse that finds the board routinely. Trainer Jeff Runco grades out at an A, and that consistency makes Navy Band the natural place bet.

Golden Circles checks in third in the ratings at 81.29 and has placed in 5 of its last 6 starts — nearly as consistent as the top pick. The second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.96 sec/furlong confirms this horse can keep pace early, and 6 wins in 22 dirt starts shows genuine winning ability. The age concern (1.2 years older than the field average) is worth noting, but trainer M. Joanna Boggs grades A- and the form cycle is sharp right now.

Smoked Peach is a legitimate threat to run second here, rating at 80.31 and boasting one of the most consistent recent form lines in the race — 5 placings in the last 6 starts is exactly what you want from a place horse. The second-ranked recent speed figure at 12.71 sec/furlong is very close to the top pick, and 3 wins in 15 dirt starts rounds out a solid dirt pedigree. At 9/5 on the morning line, the place price won't be generous, but the consistency warrants the ticket.

Ada May is the value inclusion here at 9/2, sitting third in the ratings at 49.84 with the third-best recent speed figure in the field. The massive class drop — down from $12,500 to $5,000 — is a significant angle; horses dropping dramatically in class often have something to prove and are spotted to find the bottom. Yes, there are form concerns (no placings in the last 4 or 5 starts), but class relief of this magnitude frequently reawakens horses, and the 11.85% sim win rate suggests it's more competitive than the recent form suggests.

Symptomatic rates a close second at 82.71 with real back-class on the surface — 4 wins and 21 placings in 38 dirt starts is a volume of experience that counts. Three consecutive in-the-money finishes heading into today is the kind of recent form that screams consistency, and the second-fastest recent speed figure at 12.68 sec/furlong suggests it can run with the top of this field. The age flag (1.2 years older than field average) is the only real concern, but horses with that kind of dirt form don't suddenly forget how to hit the board.

Ivyleaguedropout is an interesting show inclusion at 9/2, with a career record at this exact distance that is frankly excellent — 3 wins and placing in 7 of 9 starts at 6½ furlongs. Jockey Reshawn Latchman grades A- with a 22% win rate over the past year, adding quality in the irons. The concern is cold recent form (just 1 placing in the last 6 starts), so the horse might need things to set up, but the distance affinity and the 16.71% sim win share make it a worthwhile exotics piece at the price.

Nate the Great has a career dirt record that is simply remarkable — 8 wins and placing in all 16 of 16 starts on the surface, a perfect in-the-money rate. Four consecutive in-the-money finishes coming in and a 40% career win rate paint the picture of a horse that finds a way to get paid. The concern is that the recent speed figure ranks 8th in the field, so it may not be doing things the flashy way, and the horse is 6 years old. But a 40% career win rate and 85% in-the-money rate are hard numbers to dismiss at 3/1.

Amy's Music rates third in the field at 73.19 and shows the second-fastest recent speed figure at 12.14 sec/furlong — only Heard On Thestreet is quicker. At 8/1 on the morning line, there's clear value in this horse landing third in a field where the top two are legitimate. J.D. Acosta, who has a 17% win rate and 52% in-the-money rate over the past year, provides solid handling, and the 5-win record from 22 dirt starts confirms this horse knows how to compete on the surface. Worth including in exacta and trifecta tickets at the price.

Kosher Cowboy is the natural place horse here — second in the ratings at 81.5 with a career dirt record that is almost comically consistent: 14 wins and 22 placings in 25 starts. An 80% in-the-money rate and 48% career win rate speak for themselves. J.D. Acosta has a 17% win rate and 52% in-the-money rate over the past year, and the horse's recent speed figure of 11.65 sec/furlong is legitimate. The age concern at 8 years old is real, but form like that doesn't disappear overnight.

Time to Rock rates third in the field at 72.83 and brings a career win rate of 42% with 8 wins in 19 dirt starts — genuine winning ability at this surface and level. The third-fastest recent speed figure at 11.84 sec/furlong puts it in the mix if anything goes sideways for the top two. Moises Santaella in the irons has a 21% win rate and 55% in-the-money rate over the past year, providing competent handling, and the 15.79% sim win share at 5/1 morning line makes this a solid show bet and exotics piece.

Moon Rox sits second in the ratings at 78.63 and posts the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.72 sec/furlong. Nomar Arroyo Bueno is an A-graded jockey with a 21% win rate and 55% in-the-money rate over the past year, providing strong handling. Three wins and 12 placings in 22 dirt starts rounds out a solid surface record, and the 27.99% sim win share at 8/5 on the morning line makes Moon Rox a legitimate threat to steal the win if Starship Polaris stumbles.

R Special is the value inclusion in the show spot at 4/1 morning line, checking in third in the ratings at 62.82 with two consecutive in-the-money finishes to bring into today. Multiple wins at this surface and distance make the form relevant, and while the Sunday Diaz Jr./Timothy Shanley combination hasn't set the world on fire rate-wise, the horse's own consistent recent form justifies a spot on the ticket. At 15.56% in TrackWiz simulations, R Special outperforms what a cold read of the morning line might suggest for a third horse.