Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Charles Town Picks & Predictions — October 21, 2026

October 21, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

It's a beautiful Wednesday night at Charles Town — clear skies, 55 degrees, and fast dirt underfoot. Conditions like these tend to reward horses that can get out and establish position early, so pace scenarios are going to matter all night long on this tight, turning track.

Eight races are on the board, stretching from quick 4.5-furlong sprints to a two-turn mile and a sixteenth in Race 4. There's a nice mix of claiming, maiden special weight, and allowance company, which means class dynamics are going to be a real factor as you work through the card.

TrackWiz has rated every runner on tonight's card. Three races are fully unlocked below — including a potential longshot angle in Race 3 — and the full five-race premium breakdown is available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Municipal looks vulnerable against a TrackWiz-rated top horse in Hamdoun, setting up a potential upset in this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer.

win3HamdounML 5/2

Hamdoun earns the top TrackWiz rating of 87.81 in this field — a significant edge over the morning-line chalk Municipal (73.81). At 5/2 on the morning line, he offers real value relative to his rating advantage. Trainer Adam King puts him in a spot where he figures to control or sit close to the pace in a race where the pace scenario looks manageable, and jockey Moises Santaella is a capable partner to get the best out of him.

place5MunicipalML 7/5

Municipal opens as the 7/5 favorite and carries a 9% career win rate — the best in the field — with a TrackWiz rating of 73.81. Trainer Anthony Farrior puts him in a competitive spot here, and jockey Arnaldo Bocachica has the experience to keep him honest in the stretch. He's a solid place backup even if Hamdoun runs him down.

show7Notorious HallML 4/1

Notorious Hall is a legitimate exotics piece at 4/1 with an eye-catching 25% career win rate — highest among all runners — and a TrackWiz rating of 71.83. Trainer Kevin J. Joy has two horses in this race, which suggests stable confidence. He's a natural fit in tri and exacta coverage, especially if the top two come from the front.

Race 2

11:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight where every runner is still searching for their first win, but TrackWiz analysis separates one horse by a significant margin in a field full of question marks.

win4A Notable NatureML 2/1

A Notable Nature earns a commanding TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest in a competitive maiden field — and opens at a very fair 2/1 on the morning line. Trainer Ronald G. Sigler puts her in a spot where the form profile matches up well over 6.5 furlongs on the dirt. Jockey Antonio Lopez has a live mount here, and while maiden races always carry uncertainty, the rating gap between A Notable Nature and the rest of the field is hard to ignore.

place6Kickin' With CaityML 5/2

Kickin' With Caity draws the 5/2 morning line from trainer Anthony Farrior, who also saddles Anatolian Bullet in this spot — stable doubles in maiden races can signal genuine confidence. Her TrackWiz rating of 57.5 puts her in solid contention for the runner-up spot, and with Arnaldo Bocachica in the irons, she gets a reliable hand to navigate a first-time-winner scenario.

show2Anatolian BulletML 7/2

Anatolian Bullet is the other Farrior runner in this race, going postward at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83 — nearly identical to stablemate Kickin' With Caity. Jevian Toledo takes the mount, and the Farrior barn sending two horses into the same maiden race suggests the trainer sees a winnable spot. In tri-key exotics, having both Farrior runners underneath makes sense.

Race 3

12:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Punxadonny carries the best TrackWiz rating but opens at a generous 6/1, while Blameitonmyroots from the Contreras barn looms as a serious pace threat in a short 4.5-furlong sprint.

win5PunxadonnyML 6/1

Punxadonny tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and brings a monster 33% career win rate — by far the best in this eight-horse field. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay value here relative to his overall profile. Trainer Bobby L. Barber puts him in a race where the short sprint distance over dirt should suit, and jockey Maximo Chilo has a capable horse underneath him to get a fast early fractions advantage.

place1BlameitonmyrootsML 7/2

Blameitonmyroots opens at 7/2 under trainer Javier Contreras with a strong TrackWiz rating of 78.67 — second-best in the field. Sunday Diaz, Jr. takes the mount, and this combination has the look of a horse sent to win. Over a quick 4.5 furlongs, getting away cleanly from post 1 is key, and if he fires early, he'll be a factor deep into the stretch.

show4AbolitionistML 5/2

Abolitionist rates out at 73.18 by TrackWiz, third-best in the field, and opens at 5/2 with trainer Jacob G. Hess. Nomar Arroyo Bueno gets the call, and his 11% career win rate shows enough class consistency to hold a show spot against this claiming field. He's a natural anchor for exacta and trifecta construction.

Our three free previews tonight span a wide range of conditions. Race 1 is a 6.5-furlong claimer where Hamdoun (morning line 5/2, TrackWiz rating 87.81) comes in as the top-rated runner with solid numbers for this level. Race 2 flips to maiden special weight company at the same trip, and A Notable Nature (2/1 ML, 88.54 rating) is our highest-rated free pick of the evening — a horse we think can justify that favorite's billing. But the most intriguing free look is Race 3, where Punxadonny sits at 6/1 on the morning line despite posting a TrackWiz rating of 82.71. On a track where pace and position can be everything over the short 4.5-furlong trip, double-digit returns on a legitimate contender is exactly the kind of spot we want to flag.

Across all three free races, keep an eye on how early speed is faring in the first few races — Charles Town's compact oval can play favorably for front-runners when conditions are firm and fast, and tonight's weather sets that up nicely.

Send me tomorrow's free Charles Town card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:32 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Three horses are separated by less than six points at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, making this 1 1/16-mile dirt claimer one of the trickier races on the card to separate — but pace shape could be the deciding factor.

win5Dame CatherineML 9/5

Dame Catherine tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.40 and is the morning-line 9/5 favorite under trainer Jean L. Adorno with Nomar Arroyo Bueno up. While her 7% career win rate is modest, the rating strength over a field that includes a pair of 21%-and-higher career winners suggests she's hitting a career peak cycle right now. In a route race over a flat mile-and-sixteenth, she figures to get the pace setup she needs to pounce late.

place1Smoked PeachML 3/1

Smoked Peach is right there with a 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a much stronger 21% career win rate — the best in the field. Trainer Timothy Shanley puts him in with Sunday Diaz, Jr. in the irons, a proven Charles Town combination. He's only a whisker behind our top pick on the ratings and is more than capable of upsetting if Dame Catherine doesn't fire at her best.

show3Seven Natty PattyML 5/2

Seven Natty Patty rates 82.07 by TrackWiz and opens at a workable 5/2 with a 17% career win rate. Trainer Jean L. Adorno — who also trains the top pick — saddles both of the top contenders, which suggests stable confidence in the race shape. Jahnxander Raspaldo gets the mount, and in a three-way photo scenario at the wire, Seven Natty Patty is a logical exotics anchor.

Race 5

1:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Talkin Pharoah's eye-popping 44% career win rate stands out immediately in this 4.5-furlong dirt sprint, but Pay Zone and Imperial King are lurking to make this a genuine three-horse battle.

win4Talkin PharoahML 9/2

Talkin Pharoah is the standout here, and it starts with that 44% career win rate — nearly half of his career starts have ended in the winner's circle. His TrackWiz rating of 84.9 is tops in the field, and trainer Michael E. Jones, Jr. puts Reshawn Latchman aboard — a jockey familiar with the Charles Town circuit. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's definite overlay value given how dominant his win profile is compared to the competition.

place7Pay ZoneML 2/1

Pay Zone comes in at 2/1 on the morning line with a 25% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 80.21 — second-best in the field. An average speed figure of 54 is also among the highest in this sprint field, which matters a great deal over 4.5 furlongs where early speed rules. Trainer Adam King and jockey Nomar Arroyo Bueno form a reliable combination, and if Talkin Pharoah gets away cleanly, Pay Zone figures to be right in his shadow.

show1Imperial KingML 6/1

Imperial King rounds out our TrackWiz top three with a rating of 76.6, a 21% career win rate, and an average speed of 53 — both solid markers for a short sprint. Trainer Manolo Mangual sends Angel Cruz to the post from the rail, and a clean break from post 1 puts him in a position to dictate terms early. He's the right horse to close out your trifecta tickets at 6/1.

Race 6

1:32 AM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

Two live favorites collide in this 7-furlong allowance, with Saint Paddy's Day and McDougal drawing most of the early money — but a double-digit longshot sneaks into the show analysis.

win5Saint Paddy's DayML 9/5

Saint Paddy's Day earns the highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 88.83 and draws the 9/5 morning line — the crowd and our model are aligned. His 16% career win rate is respectable in an allowance field, and trainer Ronney W. Brown sends him out with Moises Santaella in the irons, a capable handler for a route-ish sprint distance of seven furlongs. The rating gap between him and third-rated Screaminvengeance (62.53) is large enough to inspire confidence.

place7McDougalML EVN

McDougal opens at even money — the most attractive price in the race if you're betting him to place — and carries a top-tier 84.13 TrackWiz rating alongside a 25% career win rate. Trainer Stacey R. Viands puts Jose Montano up, and his average speed of 53 ties the field's best among the main contenders. He's more than capable of flipping this result if he gets a better pace setup than the favorite.

show4ScreaminvengeanceML 10/1

Screaminvengeance is a live show play at 10/1, sitting at a 62.53 TrackWiz rating with an 11% career win rate. Trainer Ryan A. Gillespie sends him out with J. D. Acosta, and in a seven-furlong race where two heavy hitters may battle each other up front, a closer profile can sneak into the trifecta. He's worth including underneath in tri wagers if you want to get paid at a real price.

Race 7

2:02 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A razor-thin rating separation at the top between The Big Lep and Restless sets up a potential duel in this allowance optional claimer, while Hey Boots' lofty 38% career win rate makes him impossible to leave off tickets.

win5The Big LepML 9/5

The Big Lep tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and carries a remarkable 50% career win rate — one of the most impressive marks you'll see anywhere on a race card. Trainer Anthony Farrior — who also enters Restless — fields two live shots here, but The Big Lep gets first call with Arnaldo Bocachica in the irons. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price is fair for the most statistically dominant horse in this field.

place3RestlessML 2/1

Restless is essentially a dead-heat with the top pick at 88.15 on the TrackWiz scale, and her 32% career win rate is nothing to overlook. The Farrior barn clearly likes both of their horses in this spot, and Moises Santaella takes the mount — a capable jockey who can find a position in a short 4.5-furlong sprint. If The Big Lep gets bottled up early, Restless has the profile to capitalize.

show7Hey BootsML 9/2

Hey Boots is the horse to beat in your show slots at 9/2, sporting a 38% career win rate that trails only The Big Lep's 50% among the entire field. Trainer Michael E. Jones, Jr. puts Reshawn Latchman on him — the same rider he trusted in Race 5 — and that repeat booking carries weight. With a TrackWiz rating of 69.5, he's a clear tier above the bottom of this field and a safe exotic anchor.

Race 8

2:32 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The biggest field of the night — eleven runners in a 6.5-furlong dirt claimer — creates a chaotic pace scenario and puts a premium on finding the horse with the right trip from a deep draw.

win7Ziggy StardustML 4/1

Ziggy Stardust rates 84.2 by TrackWiz — second-highest in this crowded field — and opens at a generous 4/1 on the morning line. Trainer Howard S. Grim sends him out with Abnel J. Bocachica, and his 8% career win rate understates the quality he's shown in recent outings based on his rating. In a large field where pace confusion is likely, a horse with Ziggy Stardust's rating at a double-digit morning-line neighborhood would be a gift — 4/1 is still a fair price.

place10Ed's ProphecyML 7/2

Ed's Prophecy draws program number 10 and opens at 7/2 with a 82.09 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate. Trainer Javier Contreras — who runs Musical Entourage in the same race — fields two horses, but Ed's Prophecy gets the stronger rating and Reshawn Latchman in the saddle. His average speed of 52 is middle-of-the-pack for this field, but his overall rating profile makes him the natural backup to the top pick.

show5Racing Hot LineML 8/1

Racing Hot Line is the under-the-radar show play at 8/1 with a solid 79.79 TrackWiz rating and a 13% career win rate. Trainer Bobby L. Barber puts Larry C. Reynolds up, and an average speed of 52 keeps him in the mix on a track where early positions often prove decisive. At 8/1, the overlay value for show bets or trifecta construction is real — don't overlook him in your exotics.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Clear skies, fast dirt, and eight races — Charles Town is set up for a great night of racing. Hamdoun, A Notable Nature, and longshot play Punxadonny are your free TrackWiz best bets to kick things off. For the complete card — pace angles, exotic tickets, and all five premium picks — subscribers have everything they need waiting inside. Good luck at the windows tonight.

← All Charles Town picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 8 races free