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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — September 17, 2026

September 17, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

This card ran on September 17, 2026.

Best bets at Charles Town, September 17, 2026

Race 14DadsnumbronehelprML 5/27:00 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Charles Town: our top pick won 22 of 64 races (34%) and finished in the money in 47.

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Charles Town kicks off Thursday evening under partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 80°F — about as good as late-summer racing gets at this tight, one-turn oval. Eight races are on the board, all contested on the main dirt surface, and the pace-heavy nature of Charles Town's short distances promises an action-packed card from the jump.

Three of those races are sprint sprints at 4½ furlongs, and the card stretches out to 7 furlongs in Races 6 and 8 — giving pace horses and closers alike a chance to shine depending on how the early fractions set up. Our TrackWiz ratings cover the full card, and there's genuine separation between the top picks and the rest of the field in several spots worth circling.

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Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short 4 1/2-furlong claiming opener with a clear class standout at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, though the morning line favorite Ellinger at 9/5 trails the top-rated horse by a wide margin — expect some fireworks at the windows.

win4DadsnumbronehelprML 5/2

Dadsnumbronehelpr (No. 4) is the horse to beat here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — a full 15 points clear of the next best. Jockey Abnel J. Bocachica gets the call for trainer Owen Garber, and a 20% career win rate is the best among horses with a meaningful sample in this field. At 5/2 on the morning line, this isn't a price play, but the rating edge is hard to ignore in a short sprint — back this one confidently.

place7Excitable BoyML 3/1

Excitable Boy (No. 7) checks in with a solid 72.08 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55 — the highest posted by any horse in the field. Trainer Anthony Farrior sends him out with Nomar Arroyo Bueno up, and at 3/1, there's decent value for a place ticket if the top pick falters.

show3EllingerML 9/5

Ellinger (No. 3) is the morning line favorite at 9/5, and while the TrackWiz rating of 58.83 puts him third in the field, trainer Charles A. Frock has him in a spot where the public money will follow. His average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this company, making him a reasonable show hedge in exacta and trifecta exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint that's essentially a wide-open guessing game — this is a first-time starter or lightly raced field where trainer angles and workout patterns carry extra weight, and the TrackWiz ratings are tightly bunched at the top.

win7Baseball CardML 5/2

Baseball Card (No. 7) is our top pick here, carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.5 and also the only horse in the top tier with a recorded average speed figure — posting a 56, which leads all runners with speed data. Trainer Jeff C. Runco is a Charles Town veteran who knows how to spot a maiden winner, and Jahnxander Raspaldo gets the mount. At 5/2 morning line, this is a fair price for a horse with the clearest form edge in the field.

place2Doubles AlleyML 3/1

Doubles Alley (No. 2) is trained by the same Jeff C. Runco barn and rates second in the field at 56.67 — only a fraction behind Baseball Card. Arnaldo Bocachica takes the mount, and the 3/1 price makes this a sensible place play given the barn's familiarity with both horses and what it takes to win at this track.

show5HijinxnoelML 4/1

Hijinxnoel (No. 5) slots in third on the TrackWiz ratings at 55.0, right in the thick of a competitive maiden cluster. Trainer Christopher M. Keller sends Denis Vicente Araujo out at 4/1, and in a race where the top three are separated by less than three rating points, Hijinxnoel is a natural show inclusion in trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

The first three races on the card are fully unlocked for all TrackWiz readers, and there's a strong thread connecting them: speed. Charles Town's 4½-furlong distance rewards horses that can break cleanly and establish position early — the rail is a factor, and early pace command matters here more than almost anywhere else on the circuit. Dadsnumbronehelpr (Race 1, 5/2 ML) tops our ratings at 87.81 and headlines the free slate, while Baseball Card (Race 2, 5/2 ML) gives maiden bettors a target to build around. The standout of the free trio is Restless in Race 3 — our highest-rated free pick at 89.12 and installed as the 8/5 morning-line chalk in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint that looks like a prime spot.

If you're playing a small daily bankroll, these three races offer a sensible foundation. The pace scenarios in Races 1 and 3 set up particularly well for front-runners, so don't sleep on how the early fractions play out in those openers.

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Race 3

8:02 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field allowance optional claiming sprint where one horse stands significantly above the rest on the ratings sheet — Restless is the class of this group and will be heavily favored, but Uncle Chinito at 5/2 gives bettors a live alternative.

win4RestlessML 8/5

Restless (No. 4) is the dominant figure in this race, topping the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 — a commanding margin over the field. Trainer Ronney W. Brown saddles this one with a 30% career win rate that makes every start meaningful, and Moises Santaella is a capable pilot who knows how to rate a short-priced favorite. The 8/5 morning line reflects the reality here: this horse is the one to beat, and our analysis agrees.

place7Uncle ChinitoML 5/2

Uncle Chinito (No. 7) is the most logical alternative to Restless, posting a 70.65 TrackWiz rating and boasting a 21% career win rate for trainer Joan A. Reynolds. Abnel J. Bocachica climbs aboard, and at 5/2, there's real value in the place slot — this horse has the profile of a horse that competes hard even when he can't catch the top pick.

show1Hey BootsML 4/1

Hey Boots (No. 1) is fascinating here — a 40% career win rate is the best in the field by a wide margin, and trainer Michael E. Jones, Jr. clearly knows this horse's best spots. The TrackWiz rating of 60.46 puts him third, but that win percentage suggests he knows how to finish, making him a strong exotic inclusion at a fair 4/1 price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

8:32 PM EDT

Allowance · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

This allowance sprint has a standout at the top — Love the Lad's 50% career win rate and near-90 TrackWiz rating make her the clear class of the field — but a wide-open supporting cast gives exotics bettors some room to get creative.

win6Love the LadML 9/5

Love the Lad (No. 6) is the most compelling horse on this entire card — a 50% career win rate combined with a 88.83 TrackWiz rating tells you everything you need to know about where this horse stands relative to its competition. Trainer Timothy C. Grams sends her out with Larry C. Reynolds in the irons, a partnership that should be trusted at 9/5. This is a confident win selection.

place1Navy BandML 6/1

Navy Band (No. 1) rates second in the field at 73.54 on the TrackWiz sheet and carries a 19% career win rate for the reliable Jeff C. Runco barn. Warren Ebow III picks up the mount, and at 6/1 morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse likely to be overlooked by bettors chasing the favorite — a solid exacta play underneath Love the Lad.

show5Candy TricksML 8/1

Candy Tricks (No. 5) sits third on the TrackWiz ratings at 68.54 with an average speed figure of 52, and at 8/1, trainer Ronald G. Sigler's runner deserves a look in the show slot. Denis Vicente Araujo has been active on the Charles Town circuit, and Candy Tricks fills out the trifecta nicely as a value add.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

9:02 PM EDT

Allowance · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Captured in Time draws the chalk role at 9/5 and looks the part on paper, but Namaste at 7/5 is the morning line favorite — an interesting split between the public and the TrackWiz model that makes this race worth watching closely.

win5Captured in TimeML 9/5

Captured in Time (No. 5) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and carries a 20% career win rate for trainer Michelle R. Wilson, with Moises Santaella steering. The model clearly prefers this one over the morning line favorite Namaste, and that kind of divergence often signals value. With an average speed of 51 in a sprint, the pace fits, and this is our top selection.

place1Fake StrollingML 10/1

Fake Strolling (No. 1) is a genuine value angle at 10/1 — the horse posts a 71.50 TrackWiz rating, second best in the field, with a 25% career win rate and an average speed of 51. Trainer Analia R. Gomez sends out Gustavo Larrosa, and if Captured in Time grabs the spotlight in the betting, Fake Strolling could be a significant overlay in the place pool.

show3ChangesML 8/1

Changes (No. 3) checks in with a 65.02 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 52 — competitive numbers for this field. Trainer Vanessa Peltroche puts Fredy Peltroche up at 8/1, and that barn familiarity is worth noting. At that price, Changes gives trifecta players a legitimate third-slot option without breaking the bank.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

9:32 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

The card stretches out to 7 furlongs for the first time tonight, and this ten-horse allowance field has a legitimate pace question to sort through — Manseeyasway leads the TrackWiz ratings but is not the morning line favorite, creating a potential overlay situation.

win10ManseeyaswayML 5/1

Manseeyasway (No. 10) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 with an average speed figure of 53, and trainer David Walters — who also saddles Namaste in Race 5 — has a horse that knows how to get around this track. Jeiron Barbosa takes the mount at 5/1, and our analysis gives him the edge over a strong field. The extra distance to 7 furlongs should suit a horse with his profile.

place9BallinaclashML 4/1

Ballinaclash (No. 9) is the morning line second choice at 4/1 and rates second on our sheet at 78.34 — a legitimate challenger with the best average speed figure in the field at 55. Trainer Phil Schoenthal puts Carlos Eduardo Lopez up, and in a longer sprint like this, that extra speed reserve at the top of the lane matters. A natural place selection.

show6BurlsworthML 6/1

Burlsworth (No. 6) rates third on the TrackWiz model at 72.42 with an average speed of 53 and a 15% career win rate. Trainer Kevin J. Joy saddles Nomar Arroyo Bueno, and at 6/1, this horse has the numbers to earn a share in a wide-open seven-furlong race. A sensible third in trifecta exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 7

10:02 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A packed 12-horse allowance optional claiming field at 6 1/2 furlongs is the feature race of the night — Tico Grande is the clear TrackWiz top pick, but with a field this big there's room to get creative in the exotics.

win2Tico GrandeML 3/1

Tico Grande (No. 2) is the horse to beat in this race and it isn't particularly close — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a jaw-dropping 44% career win rate make him the standout in a 12-horse field. Trainer Patricia R. Anderson gives Victor Rodriguez the mount, and at 3/1, this is a fair price for a horse who wins nearly half his races. Over 6 1/2 furlongs, expect him to be forwardly placed and tough to run down.

place1Social ChicML 6/1

Social Chic (No. 1) rates second on our sheet at 71.72 with a 29% career win rate for the Jeff C. Runco barn — one of the most reliable training operations at Charles Town. Jahnxander Raspaldo rides from the rail, and that post draw in a sprint can be a blessing if he gets a clean break. At 6/1, this is an excellent place value play underneath Tico Grande.

show4DoradoML 6/1

Dorado (No. 4) is an intriguing third piece in this exotics puzzle — a 68.54 TrackWiz rating backed by the best average speed figure among the top picks at 55. Trainer Javier Contreras puts Wesley Ho up at 6/1, and Dorado's raw speed gives him the ability to press the pace and still have something left at the wire in a longer sprint. Strong trifecta candidate.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 8

10:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A deep 10-horse claiming route at 7 furlongs to close out the night — the TrackWiz model separates Smoked Peach from the field on ratings, but Authentic Appeal's eye-catching 50% career win rate adds a wrinkle that makes this one worth dissecting.

win5Smoked PeachML 3/1

Smoked Peach (No. 5) leads all horses in this race with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and owns a 25% career win rate under trainer Carlos Montilla. Sunday Diaz, Jr. takes the call from the five post, a comfortable spot in a 10-horse field around two turns. The average speed figure of 52 is right in line with the field, and the model's top rating makes this our confident win selection at a fair 3/1 morning line.

place2Authentic AppealML 6/1

Authentic Appeal (No. 2) might be the most interesting horse on the closing card — a 50% career win rate for trainer Jaime Cruz is a number that commands respect at any level. J.D. Acosta gets the mount on a horse rated 82.71, second best in the race, with an average speed of 52. At 6/1, this is significant overlay material for a horse with that kind of win pedigree, making it a strong exacta partner.

show3Seven Natty PattyML 5/2

Seven Natty Patty (No. 3) rounds out the top three with a 78.19 TrackWiz rating and posts a 17% career win rate for trainer Jean L. Adorno, with Moises Santaella in the irons. The morning line has this one at 5/2, reflecting legitimate public confidence, and in a claiming closer over 7 furlongs, Santaella's experience in route races is an asset worth factoring in.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line: Charles Town's Thursday card is built around speed and short dirt sprints, and TrackWiz ratings show clear top picks across all eight races. Free-card readers should focus on Restless (Race 3) as the marquee play of the unlocked slate. Subscribers get the pace scenarios, exotic strategies, and full breakdowns for the complete eight-race card. Good luck out there — race responsibly, and let the data do the heavy lifting.

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