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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026

September 12, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

Rain is in the air at Charles Town on Saturday, September 12th, and that changes everything. With wet conditions rolling through and temps sitting at 76°F, the dirt surface is going to play differently than a dry afternoon — expect the track to play heavier as the card progresses, and keep a close eye on how early speed holds up in the first few races before drawing any firm conclusions.

We've got a full 8-race card on tap tonight, mixing maiden company, claiming ranks, and a pair of allowance tests that give us the best look at genuine class. The card opens with a heavy favorite in Pomerance drawing plenty of attention in the Maiden Special Weight, but the real intrigue builds toward the back end where our TrackWiz ratings are flagging some legitimate pace questions and at least one big-number overlay worth talking about.

Bottom line: wet tracks at Charles Town tend to tighten up pace scenarios and reward horses that can settle early, so pace handicapping is even more critical than usual today. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight going 6½ furlongs, but there's a clear standout on the TrackWiz ratings — the question is whether the morning line reflects her true ceiling or creates dead money at the windows.

win7PomeranceML 3/5

Pomerance is the most dominant-rated horse on the card tonight, posting a TrackWiz score of 90 in a field where no other runner cracks 70. Trainer Brittany T. Russell puts her in the hands of Jevian Toledo, one of the more accomplished pilots in this ship, and the morning line of 3/5 tells you the market agrees. In a maiden race, a horse this far ahead on ratings in a sprint scenario is the kind of play you make with confidence — just manage your exposure since maiden firsters can always surprise.

place3Dulce MiaML 12/1

Dulce Mia is the sneaky standout of this race at 12/1 morning line, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 68.54 — by far the second-highest in the field and a massive gap above everything else except Pomerance. Trainer Kathleen E. Hamlin sends her out with Nomar Arroyo Bueno up, and if Pomerance hits any trouble or flattens late, Dulce Mia is positioned to grab the place slot. At double-digit odds, she's the prime inclusion in any exacta underneath.

show5Aunt NanML 12/1

Aunt Nan at 12/1 deserves a spot in your exotics as the third-best-rated horse in the race with a score of 43.6 — not flashy, but this is a field where the ratings fall off a cliff after the top three. Gustavo Larrosa gets the call for trainer Konstantinos Harigeorgiou, and with zero career wins across this group, pedigree and workout quality are what separates — Aunt Nan's inclusion here is about coverage in trifecta combinations at a price.

Race 2

11:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint at 7 furlongs with a legitimate top two on paper, but the pace scenario could get contentious early — the kind of race where a stalker with a big rating closing from just off the pace can steal the whole thing.

win1AmamaML 3/1

Amama earns our top rating at 87.08 in this claiming field and ships in at a fair 3/1 morning line under Nomar Arroyo Bueno for trainer Jean L. Adorno. A 7% career win rate sounds modest, but in a claiming sprint with an avg speed of 52, she has the tools to be forwardly placed and hold on. The gap between her rating and the second-best Cloudyncool (78.0) is meaningful enough that we're comfortable marking her as the win selection.

place5CloudyncoolML 5/2

Cloudyncool sits at 5/2 on the morning line with a solid 78.0 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 10% career win rate, giving her legitimate top-three credentials here. Trainer Adam King puts Reshawn Latchman on board, and the combination of a competitive rating and a win percentage matching some of the better horses in the field makes her the logical place contender. If the pace heats up early and Amama gets caught in a speed duel, Cloudyncool could be the one swooping late.

show4Miss Nine One OML 2/1

Miss Nine One O is right in the mix at a 68.11 rating and offers reasonable value at 2/1 — she's listed as our show selection, meaning she profiles as a closer who benefits from a honest pace. Carlos Eduardo Lopez is a reliable hand in the irons, and with a 5% career win rate in a crowded field, she's the kind of horse you use to round out exactas and trifectas rather than single-mindedly chase.

Race 3

12:02 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are bunched tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claimer going 6½ furlongs, setting up a genuine three-way battle — but one of them has a slight edge that's easy to miss on the morning line.

win4PamperoML 5/2

Pampero leads our ratings at 87.81 and is installed as the 5/2 morning-line favorite by the track oddsmaker — rare alignment between our model and the market in a maiden field. Carlos Eduardo Lopez is a sharp pilot who puts up consistent numbers at Charles Town, and trainer Francisco Alanis clearly has this one pointed at tonight. With an avg speed of 52, Pampero isn't the fastest horse on raw figures, but the rating composite suggests she brings more to the table than those numbers alone show.

place1AwegodML 7/2

Awegod is right behind Pampero on our board at 80.52 and offers a touch of value at 7/2 on the morning line. Trainer Adam King — same barn that has Cloudyncool in Race 2 — appears to have this card circled, and Denis Vicente Araujo takes the mount. An avg speed of 51 is in the mix for this level, and a rating in the low 80s in a maiden claimer gives Awegod every reason to hit the board.

show2Knocking LuckML 6/1

Knocking Luck rounds out the top three on our ratings at 77.79 and is worth including in trifectas at 6/1. Trainer Daniel W. Siculietano also has Honor the Bull in this race, so the barn has multiple shots — but Knocking Luck is clearly the stable's better-rated entry. Jahnxander Raspaldo gets the call, and with an avg speed matching Awegod, the 6/1 price makes this a value-forward show option.

The first three races are unlocked for everyone, and they set an interesting early-card tone. Pomerance opens things up as a heavy chalk in the 6½-furlong Maiden Special Weight — our rating of 90 makes that morning line of 3/5 look fair, but rain-softened going is the wildcard here. In Race 2, Amama tops our board in the 7-furlong claimer at 3/1, a price that could carry real value if the pace sets up in her favor. Pampero rounds out the free trio in the Race 3 Maiden Claiming, rated 87.81 and sitting at 5/2 on the morning line — a solid overlay candidate if the field shortens up around the favorite.

The common thread across all three free races: horses that can rate just off an honest pace have a clear edge on a wet surface. None of these picks need to lead to win — they just need a clean trip and a fair run at the turn. Use these early races to gauge how much the rain is affecting ground conditions before loading up later in the card.

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Race 4

12:32 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A deep allowance optional claiming field going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, where four horses are clustered between 76 and 83 on our ratings — this shapes up as a thorough pace test with the outcome potentially decided in the final sixteenth.

win6Keen TalentML 6/1

Keen Talent tops our ratings at 82.71 and is going postward at 6/1, which represents genuine value in a field this competitive. Trainer Anthony Farrior sends her out with Jeiron Barbosa in the irons — Farrior also has Genuine Gomo in the race, giving the barn two live shots. An 8% career win rate is a fair baseline for a horse at this class level, and the avg speed of 53 is right in line with the top tier. At a mile and a sixteenth, pace management matters, and a horse with this kind of rating that's still available at 6/1 is where the value lives tonight.

place5Blanches MuleML 5/1

Blanches Mule is our place selection at 5/1 with a 81.28 rating — just a tick below Keen Talent but essentially a dead heat on our model. Denis Vicente Araujo takes the mount for trainer Timothy Shanley, and while a 5% career win rate sounds low, the distance of 1 1/16 miles suits a closer profile that might eat up ground in the final stretch. She's the kind of horse who hits the board more than she wins, making the place bet especially logical.

show2MasterworkML 7/2

Masterwork is our show pick at 7/2 with an 80.01 rating and a 17% career win rate — that win percentage is among the better marks in the field and suggests she knows how to finish races. Trainer Ronney W. Brown puts Moises Santaella on board, a jockey who knows this oval well. At 7/2 she's probably not the biggest overlay, but her rating and win rate justify inclusion in trifecta combinations, especially at the route distance where class and fitness come to the fore.

Race 5

1:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A full field of twelve in a 7-furlong claiming sprint — the kind of race where pace chaos is a real possibility and a stalker with a strong rating sitting off the early speed can come flying late while the front-runners tire.

win10RidiculousML 10/1

Ridiculous is our top selection at a 76.88 TrackWiz rating despite the 10/1 morning line — that gap between the price and the rating is exactly the kind of overlay we look for. Fredy Peltroche rides for trainer Vanessa Peltroche, a family operation that clearly knows this horse well. A 16% career win rate is respectable in a big field, and the avg speed of 51 combined with the high rating suggests she's capable of generating big finishes. In a 12-horse sprint where the pace figures to be hot early, a horse with her profile closing into the teeth of the stretch is worth a serious look.

place2Doctor PardoML 9/2

Doctor Pardo checks in at a 71.24 rating and 9/2 morning line, with a 16% career win rate adding to the appeal. Carlos J. Rodriguez takes the mount for trainer Samuel Figueroa, and an avg speed of 51 tells us he profiles as a midpack runner who can weave through traffic in a crowded sprint. At a fair price, Doctor Pardo rounds out exacta combinations nicely beneath our top selection.

show3Palm IslandML 6/1

Palm Island is the show pick at 6/1 with a 70.65 rating and the highest avg speed in the field at 56 — that speed figure is a legitimate differentiator in a field where most horses are clustered in the 50-54 range. Trainer Anthony Farrior, who also has Irish Warlock in this race, sends out Anthony Y. Nunez, and a 15% career win rate speaks to a horse who competes with consistency. The raw speed advantage at 7 furlongs could translate to a fast-closing effort if the early fractions get honest.

Race 6

1:32 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A starter optional claiming sprint at 6½ furlongs featuring a legitimate top-rated horse going postward at a generous price — and a pair of well-rated closers who could make the exacta and trifecta payoffs worth chasing.

win1Miss InterpatationML 4/1

Miss Interpatation leads the field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a standout 35% career win rate — in a ten-horse field, that kind of win percentage is rare and commands attention. Arnaldo Bocachica, a workmanlike pilot at Charles Town, gets the call for trainer Michael V. Simone. At 4/1, she's not a monster overlay, but the combination of top rating, elite win percentage, and a sprint distance where she should be able to dictate pace makes her our confident top selection.

place10Malibu YearsML 9/5

Malibu Years is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a 79.93 rating and a 23% career win rate — she's clearly a serious threat, which is why we have her as the place selection rather than fighting the likely chalk. Larry C. Reynolds takes the mount for Bobby L. Barber, and with an avg speed of 54 — second-highest in the field — she has the raw figures to hit the board even if Miss Interpatation runs her down late. Using both in exactas makes strong sense here.

show3Beautiful CrazyML 5/1

Beautiful Crazy checks in at 79.01 on our ratings with an eye-catching avg speed of 57 — the highest in the entire field tonight — and a 26% career win rate that makes her more than a throwaway third choice. Trainer Anthony Farrior puts Jeiron Barbosa on board at 5/1, and that speed figure is the kind of outlier that can translate to an early pressing position in a sprint. If the pace sets up honestly, Beautiful Crazy has the engine to be involved at the wire.

Race 7

2:02 AM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 7 furlongs where the morning-line favorite carries a massive ratings edge, but the supporting cast — particularly a pair of 4/1 to 9/2 horses — makes the exotics worth constructing carefully.

win2Truth and JusticeML 7/5

Truth and Justice is our top selection with an 89.42 TrackWiz rating — second-highest on the entire card tonight — and is installed at 7/5 on the morning line, which means the market is well aware of her ability. Sunday Diaz Jr. gets the mount for trainer Cynthia E. McKee, and a 15% career win rate in allowance company is a legitimate mark of class. The 17-point gap between her rating and the next-best Cappuccino Crunch (74.42) is the kind of margin that tends to hold up in non-maiden company.

place7Cappuccino CrunchML 9/2

Cappuccino Crunch is our place pick at 9/2 with a 74.42 rating and the best career win rate among the supporting cast at 25% — that's a meaningful data point in a field full of horses who have struggled to break their maiden or sustain winning form. Trainer Javier Contreras sends out Arnaldo Bocachica, and at a mile sprint distance, a horse with that win percentage knows how to get to the wire first when conditions are right. She's the logical player to include underneath in exactas.

show4Belle CauseML 6/1

Belle Cause rounds out our picks at a 73.01 rating and 6/1 morning line, with a 16% career win rate that keeps her in the conversation as a legitimate board horse. Victor Rodriguez takes the mount for trainer Kristy Rodriguez, and with the pace likely to be set by Truth and Justice, a horse with Belle Cause's closing profile at this price should be a standard trifecta inclusion. She won't win on her best day, but a spot on the board is well within reach.

Race 8

2:32 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a full thirteen-horse claiming sprint at 7 furlongs — a big, unwieldy field where the top-rated horse has a significant edge on the numbers and should be treated as the anchor of every exotic combination.

win1Truly an HonorML 2/1

Truly an Honor tops the field at an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — by far the highest score in this claiming field — and is rightly installed as the 2/1 morning-line favorite. Moises Santaella takes the mount for trainer Ronney W. Brown, a barn that clearly knows how to spot horses in situations they can win. A 10% career win rate in a field this large is competitive, and with an avg speed of 53, she projects to be close enough to the pace to pounce in the final furlong. At 2/1, she's not a value bomb, but the rating separation justifies using her on top in all exotics.

place2Old Fashion CandyML 7/2

Old Fashion Candy is a fascinating place pick at 7/2, carrying a 64.56 rating and an impressive 25% career win rate — the best win percentage among any horse in the field. Trainer Anthony Farrior puts Jose Y. Diaz on board, and with an avg speed of 53 matching our top pick, she has the raw tools to be competitive. In a 13-horse field where chaos is possible, a horse who knows how to finish races a quarter of the time provides solid place insurance.

show7Starship RefundML 5/1

Starship Refund at 5/1 is our show selection, bringing a 58.98 rating and the highest avg speed among the supporting cast at 54. Trainer Anthony Lucas sends out Denis Vicente Araujo, and a 12% career win rate in claiming company is respectable. In a field this large, pace scenarios get complicated, and a horse with Starship Refund's speed advantage on raw figures is the type who can sit just off a fast pace and reel in tired rivals in the stretch — exactly the kind of horse worth using in trifecta and superfecta coverage.

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Eight races, a rain-soaked strip, and at least one double-digit longshot with a legitimate shot to light up the board — Saturday at Charles Town has the makings of a genuinely profitable night. Pomerance, Amama, and Pampero anchor the free plays, but the full card value is stacked in the premium races. Unlock the complete analysis at TrackWiz Premium and go into post time with a real edge. Good luck tonight — bet smart, and trust the process.

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