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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — August 20, 2026

August 20, 20269 racesAll Charles Town picks

Rain is falling at Charles Town on Thursday night, and that changes everything. With temperatures sitting at 75°F and the dirt surface absorbing steady precipitation, we're likely looking at an off track by post time — and that means pace scenarios shift, trip horses get compromised, and horses with proven mud-running ability move to the front of the conversation.

Nine races are on the card tonight, ranging from maiden claimers sprinting 4½ furlongs to allowance routes going the full seven. It's a workmanlike Thursday slate, but don't let that fool you — wet tracks at Charles Town have a way of producing some genuinely juicy overlays, especially when the crowd blindly follows dry-track form.

TrackWiz has graded all nine races. Three are fully unlocked for every reader, and the full-card breakdown — including Races 4 through 9 — is available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where two horses separate themselves from the pack on our ratings — but pace could be the wildcard on this short 4½-furlong strip.

win5Unusual BayML 9/5

Unusual Bay sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 88.83, a significant gap over the rest of this maiden field, and the 9/5 morning line suggests the connections know what they have. With an average speed figure of 50 in a field where speed is clustered tightly, it's the overall rating advantage that sets this horse apart. Trainer Ronney W. Brown hands the reins to Nomar Arroyo Bueno, a capable pilot who should be able to dictate terms in a short sprint. In maiden claiming company, a horse with this kind of ratings edge tends to wire the field — we're confident making this our top selection.

place2Hobnob's GirlML 7/5

Hobnob's Girl carries the lowest morning line in the race at 7/5 and posts a TrackWiz rating of 63.87 — second-best in the field — backed by the top average speed figure of 52 among horses with recorded figures. Trainer William E. Straughn sends out what the market clearly respects, and Victor Rodriguez is a solid pick-up in the irons. If Unusual Bay stumbles or gets shuffled at the break, Hobnob's Girl has the raw speed to capitalize.

show4Kaylee's FireballML 6/1

Kaylee's Fireball at 6/1 is easy to overlook, but a TrackWiz rating of 50.57 puts her third in this field, and an average speed figure of 50 matches the top horses. Trainer Frederick Clatterbuck places her in a spot where the class level is within reach, and Christian Hiraldo gives her an experienced rider. For exotic players, she's a natural inclusion underneath at a price.

Race 2

11:30 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Starter optional claiming over 4½ furlongs — the morning line is split three ways but our ratings say one horse has a clear edge, with a jaw-dropping career win percentage lurking mid-field.

win1Beautiful CrazyML 5/2

Beautiful Crazy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 in this field and owns a career win rate of 28% — strong for any level, exceptional in a sprint like this. The average speed figure of 57 is tied for best in the field, and trainer Anthony Farrior puts Jeiron Barbosa aboard, a jockey who knows how to get horses home on a short layout. At 5/2, this isn't a gift price, but the data firmly supports making Beautiful Crazy the top selection.

place6Breezey BellaML 8/5

Breezey Bella comes in at 8/5 on the morning line with a 77.77 rating and an average speed figure of 57 — matching the top figure in the race. A 23% career win rate shows she hits the board with regularity, and trainer Joan A. Reynolds has her spot-placed at this level. If the race sets up with any pace pressure on Beautiful Crazy, Breezey Bella has the late kick to show up in the exacta.

show7Little Bit of ThatML 3/1

Little Bit of That is the most intriguing number in this field — a 44% career win rate is eye-opening and leads the entire field by a wide margin. The 70.26 rating is third-best here, and an average speed figure of 55 keeps her competitive on raw numbers. Trainer Kent Knudsen has this one primed at 3/1, and Wesley Ho should have her in a good stalking position throughout.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full nine-horse claiming field going 6½ furlongs — one horse has a dominant ratings advantage, but value seekers will find a couple of double-digit prices worth a look in the exotics.

win8Imperial KingML 3/1

Imperial King leads all comers with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — a comfortable margin over the second-ranked horse in this field. Trainer Manolo Mangual sends him out with Jeiron Barbosa up, and the 3/1 morning line confirms this is a well-backed selection. A career win rate of 20% at the claiming level is respectable, and at 6½ furlongs, there's enough real estate for a horse of his caliber to settle and unleash. He's the clear top pick here.

place2Buckin' DreamerML 4/1

Buckin' Dreamer rates second in the field at 71.09 with a 22% career win percentage — the highest among horses in the pick trio — and an average speed figure of 52 that holds up in this company. Trainer Timothy Shanley has him positioned well off the second-best post in the field, and Jahnxander Raspaldo tends to get good trips from mid-pack. If Imperial King gets any trouble in the early going, Buckin' Dreamer is right there.

show6RidiculousML 8/1

Ridiculous checks in with a 56.82 rating and a 16% career win rate — modest numbers, but enough to stay competitive at this level. Fredy Peltroche pilots for trainer Vanessa Peltroche, a family operation that tends to know its horses inside and out. At 8/1 on the morning line, if you're building a trifecta, Ridiculous is a logical include underneath the top two.

The first three races are open to everyone tonight, and they tell an interesting early story. Unusual Bay opens the card as the 9/5 morning-line choice in the maiden claimer at 4½ furlongs — a short sprint where a fast pace could be compromised by a sloppy surface, so early position is going to matter. A few races later, Imperial King draws our eye in Race 3, a 6½-furlong claimer where class and wet-track adaptability could be the separating factors at 3/1 on the morning line.

The through-line across these free picks: in off-track conditions, horses that can secure clean position early without expending excess energy tend to hold their advantage. If the rail is playing favorably — which Charles Town's inside path often does when the surface gets wet — expect front-runners and stalkers to have a significant edge over closers tonight. Keep that bias in mind as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:25 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

Maiden special weight going seven furlongs — this is a two-horse battle at the top of the ratings with the public favorite set to go postward at 9/5, but our top pick is going off at nearly 5/1.

win3Standard DeductionML 9/2

Standard Deduction is our top pick here at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 — second highest in the field by our numbers, but the angle here is value. Trainer Phillip Capuano sends out two horses in this race, which suggests he's confident in the barn's form, and Nomar Arroyo Bueno is a well-respected hand who rarely gets on horses without upside. An average speed figure of 53 is solid for a maiden route, and if this horse fires its best at today's distance, 9/2 looks like an overlay.

place6MunicipalML 9/5

Municipal sits as the public's 9/5 morning line choice with a 76.03 rating and the top average speed figure in the field at 54 — that raw speed number matters most when you stretch out to seven furlongs. Trainer Anthony Farrior saddles Jeiron Barbosa, one of the more consistent pilot-trainer combos in the Charles Town barn. Even if Standard Deduction beats him, Municipal has enough pure ability to finish in the exacta.

show4Hobson's ChoiceML 7/2

Hobson's Choice rates third in the field at 55.83 with a 7/2 morning line that suggests public support. Trainer Jeff C. Runco is a savvy conditioner, and Arnaldo Bocachica gives this horse a reliable rider who can pace a seven-furlong maiden correctly. As a show play in a maiden route with no standout pace setter, Hobson's Choice is a solid insurance piece.

Race 5

12:53 AM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Nine-horse claiming sprint with a fascinating split — the morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse, and a 40% career winner at 6/1 makes this race harder to box up than it looks.

win5PunxadonnyML 6/1

Punxadonny is our top selection at 6/1, carrying an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and an astonishing 40% career win percentage — the highest in the field by a very wide margin. That kind of winning consistency at the claiming level is not an accident; this horse knows how to finish. Trainer Bobby L. Barber has him positioned for a bounce-back effort, and Maximo Chilo gets the call in the irons. At morning line odds of 6/1, this looks like a genuine overlay given what the numbers say.

place2Magical SurpriseML 8/5

Magical Surprise is the public's 8/5 choice with a strong 80.71 rating and an average speed figure of 52 that's competitive in this sprint field. Trainer David Walters pairs with Jeiron Barbosa — a combo that has shown up consistently at Charles Town — and a 10% career win rate at what appears to be a tough book of races isn't alarming. She figures to press or stalk the pace and give a solid effort every time.

show4Renegade RabbitML 7/2

Renegade Rabbit rates third among our picks at 74.38 with an average speed figure of 53 — actually the best speed figure of the three top picks. Anthony Farrior trains and Nomar Arroyo Bueno rides, a combo that fires regularly at this oval. At 7/2 on the morning line, Renegade Rabbit is a natural show bet or trifecta fill if the top two separate themselves.

Race 6

1:21 AM EDT

Allowance · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Allowance sprint with a peculiar dynamic — the morning line favorite has a 100% career win rate but a middling TrackWiz rating, while our top pick goes postward at nearly 5/1 with the highest number in the field.

win7Captured in TimeML 9/2

Captured in Time leads the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 with a 25% career win percentage — the highest among the top picks in this race — and carries a 9/2 morning line that looks like potential value against the heavily bet public choice. Trainer Michelle R. Wilson sends out Angel Cruz, and the avg speed figure of 51 fits comfortably in this allowance sprint. When the ratings say one thing and the crowd says another, that's exactly the spot to trust the data.

place8Great FiberML 10/1

Great Fiber is the value angle here at 10/1 on the morning line with a 70.56 rating and an average speed figure of 52 — actually the best speed figure among our three picks. Trainer Timothy C. Grams saddles both this horse and Ain't No Angel in the race, suggesting real confidence in the barn. A 20% career win rate makes Great Fiber a legitimate live longshot in a race where the crowd may be chasing the wrong horse.

show3Ain't No AngelML 4/1

Ain't No Angel checks in at 4/1 with a 69.05 rating and a 20% career win percentage that ties for the best among the top three picks. Trainer Timothy C. Grams — who double-dips in this race — appears to have a sharp opinion on both of his starters, and Jahnxander Raspaldo gets the mount. In an allowance sprint where pace could be contested, a horse with solid numbers like these belongs in your exotics.

Race 7

1:49 AM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

Seven-furlong allowance with one horse clearly sitting above the field on our ratings — the question is whether the 5/2 chalk delivers or if a closer can run her down in deep stretch.

win3Our MemoriesML 5/2

Our Memories is the standout at 87.81 on TrackWiz ratings — a number that separates her from the field by over 11 points — and she draws the services of Arnaldo Bocachica for trainer Timothy C. Grams, a sharp tandem at this circuit. An average speed figure of 53 is competitive for seven furlongs, and an 11% career win percentage isn't alarming given what we suspect is a tough book of races. At 5/2, she won't offer explosive value, but the data makes her a confident top selection.

place4Tina's BackML 4/1

Tina's Back rates second among our picks at 76.45 with a 15% career win rate and an average speed figure of 52. Trainer Anthony Lucas sends out Jahnxander Raspaldo — a jockey who tends to get horses to settle nicely around two turns — and the 4/1 morning line suggests the market respects this one as a legitimate contender. If Our Memories gets caught up in pace trouble early, Tina's Back is ideally positioned to inherit the exacta.

show8Miss Nine One OML 6/1

Miss Nine One O is an interesting piece at 6/1 with a 73.40 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field. What stands out is the combination of Nomar Arroyo Bueno in the irons — one of the better hands at Charles Town — and an average speed figure of 52 that keeps her honest in this spot. The 5% career win rate is low, but in allowance company at seven furlongs, a horse with her ratings profile can absolutely sneak into the trifecta.

Race 8

2:17 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse allowance field going 6½ furlongs — this is a deep, competitive race where our top pick bucks the morning line and a 37% career winner posts up as the place selection.

win8BurlsworthML 6/1

Burlsworth leads our picks at an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and goes postward at 6/1 — a clear overlay against the 5/2 morning line chalk. An average speed figure of 54 is tied for best in the entire field, and a 16% career win rate holds up in allowance company at this distance. Trainer Kevin J. Joy and rider Arnaldo Bocachica make for a confident pairing, and in a field this large, a horse with big raw numbers at a double-digit price is exactly the kind of play we love.

place1Outdoor CatML 5/2

Outdoor Cat posts a 79.62 rating and carries the most impressive career win percentage of any horse in this analysis — 37% — for trainer Phillip Capuano. An average speed figure of 54 matches the field-best figure, and Carlos Eduardo Lopez has the horse well in hand from the rail. At 5/2, this is the public's top choice and the numbers largely back that up; she figures prominently in the exacta.

show10ManseeyaswayML 5/1

Manseeyasway rates third at 77.92 with a solid average speed figure of 53 for trainer David Walters, who also runs Breezing Up in this race. Jeiron Barbosa gets the call, and a 11% career win rate in what looks like competitive allowance fields is not a red flag. At 5/1, this horse offers solid value as a show bet or trifecta fill in what could be a pace-contested 6½-furlong race.

Race 9

2:45 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is an 11-horse claiming marathon at seven furlongs — one horse stands above the field in both our ratings and career win percentage, making this the most clearcut top pick on the card.

win5Yankee Doodle KidML 7/2

Yankee Doodle Kid is the play of the night — an 86.35 TrackWiz rating paired with a 36% career win percentage that leads every horse in this field by a country mile. Trainer Ronney W. Brown saddles Moises Santaella, a capable jockey who should have no trouble placing this horse within striking range on the long seven-furlong layout. An average speed figure of 52 is perfectly suited for this class level. At 7/2, the public has him well-supported, and the numbers say he's worth every penny of that confidence.

place8W V LadML 5/2

W V Lad draws the 5/2 morning line — making him actually the public's slight choice — with a 77.77 rating and a 20% career win rate. An average speed figure of 53 gives him a slight edge in raw speed over our top pick, and Juan Mauricio Nunez guides for trainer Kristy Gazzier, who places horses thoughtfully at Charles Town. If Yankee Doodle Kid goes wire to wire, W V Lad figures to be right on his flank through the stretch.

show9Grandpa JoeML 9/2

Grandpa Joe is a sneaky fit here at 9/2 with a 76.46 rating and an average speed figure of 53 — matching the place pick on raw speed. Christian Hiraldo takes the mount for trainer M. Joanna Boggs, and a 12% career win rate at the claiming level suggests this horse can deliver a solid effort when spotted correctly. In an 11-horse field at seven furlongs, pace can get chaotic, and Grandpa Joe has the profile to swoop in late for a piece of the trifecta.

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Bottom line: tonight at Charles Town is all about reading the wet track correctly and finding the horses built to handle it. Unusual Bay, Beautiful Crazy, and Imperial King headline the free card, but the real angles are deeper in the night. Unlock the full analysis at TrackWiz — see pricing for subscriber options — and let's make the mud work for us.

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