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Century Mile Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026

September 12, 20269 racesAll Century Mile picks

It's a crisp Saturday at Century Mile — partly cloudy skies and 54°F at post time, which means a firm, consistent dirt surface with no weather excuses for underperformers. Nine races are on the board today, and this is about as stakes-rich a card as you'll see at this track all season.

From the 400-yard quarter-horse sprints that kick things off to a pair of route tests closing out the card, there's something for every type of player. The pace scenarios shift dramatically from race to race, so reading each race on its own terms is key. Don't let the heavy chalk at the top of the morning line push you away from some legitimate value deeper in the card.

TrackWiz has full ratings across all nine races. Three races are open to everyone — including a couple of the quarter-horse dashes and the headliner route. The remaining six are available to subscribers, and trust us, that's where the most interesting decisions live today.

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Race 1

10:45 PM EDT

Futurity · 400 yd · Dirt

A wide-open Quarter Horse Futurity at 400 yards where TrackWiz ratings separate three contenders from the field — but morning-line longshots hold real upset potential in a sprint this short.

win7Rooters WagonML 2/1

Rooters Wagon tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, the highest mark in the field by a meaningful margin, and Buckey A. Stockwell sends this one out with O. Amador Hernandez in the irons — a barn-and-rider combo worth watching. The 2/1 morning line makes this the public's second choice, but the rating edge here is substantial. In a 400-yard dash where fractions of a second decide everything, that kind of analytical edge matters.

place6Streakin Snow WagonML 9/2

Streakin Snow Wagon, also trained by Stockwell, carries a 72.16 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and draws out to post 6 at 9/2 on the morning line. Sharing a barn with the top pick often means these connections know exactly what they have in both horses. At a price, she's a natural fit underneath Rooters Wagon in exotics.

show4First Flash the MoonML 10/1

First Flash the Moon is a bit of a sleeper here at 10/1 morning line despite carrying the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 64.14. Trainer Craig Robert Smith saddles this one with Miguel Angel Lopez up, and the rating puts this horse well clear of the rest of the bottom half of the field. A legitimate show contender and a way to get some value into your exacta or trifecta.

Race 2

11:15 PM EDT

Derby · 400 yd · Dirt

The Derby at 400 yards features a clear top-rated standout, but this nine-horse field has enough live pace and career-win-percentage talent to make the exacta and trifecta interesting.

win8She My Dulce GirlML 2/1

She My Dulce Girl owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and backs it up with a 57% career win rate — the best strike rate among any horse in this field. Daniel Tavares gets the call for trainer Misael Moreno, and at 2/1, she's a deserving favorite in what amounts to a professional-grade sprint. This filly has the profile of a horse that should dominate when she's right.

place1Jess the TrainML 5/2

Jess the Train rates second in the field at 82.52 and shows a 33% career win percentage for trainer Buckey A. Stockwell. O. Amador Hernandez, who also pilots Rooters Wagon in Race 1 for this barn, gets the mount here — and Stockwell's stable has strong representation across this card. At 5/2, she's likely to be right there at the wire.

show7O SawyerML 7/2

O Sawyer draws post 7 at 7/2 and rates third in the field at 79.89 with a 23% career win rate under trainer Wesley T. Oulton. Jockey Alejandro Jorge Angeles takes the mount, and the combination of a competitive rating and fair price makes O Sawyer a solid show anchor and a legitimate exacta wheel candidate underneath the top two.

Race 3

11:45 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A heavy-odds chalk dominates this four-horse Stakes at 1 1/16 miles, but savvy bettors will be focused on which longshot can sneak into the exotics at a massive price.

win4Big HugML 1/5

Big Hug is the most imposing favorite on the card at 1/5 on the morning line — and the TrackWiz rating of 90.00 (highest in this race) combined with a 51% career win percentage under trainer Rick Hedge makes that chalk understandable. Rafael Zenteno Jr. handles the ride, and this horse's numbers simply dwarf the competition. The question isn't whether Big Hug should be the favorite — it's whether the price makes single-horse win betting worthwhile. For exotic players, Big Hug is a must-use.

place2H K MimiML 10/1

H K Mimi is our place selection at 10/1 and carries a 52.16 TrackWiz rating with a 25% career win percentage for trainer Colton Reid. The speed figure of 52 is in line with the rest of the field outside the dominant favorite, and at double-digit odds on the morning line, she brings real value to the exacta with the chalk on top.

show1Seattle StingML 8/1

Seattle Sting checks in at 8/1 morning line with a 46.38 rating and a 20% career win percentage for trainer David Nicholson. The average speed of 53 is actually a tick above H K Mimi, giving Seattle Sting a subtle edge in raw speed. With only four horses in the field, this one essentially needs to beat just one rival for a show check — decent value for trifecta players.

The first three races on today's card give casual players plenty to dig into. Rooters Wagon (Race 1) and She My Dulce Girl (Race 2) both land as 2/1 morning-line favorites with matching TrackWiz ratings of 88.54 — two sharp, evenly assessed quarter-horse sprints at 400 yards where pure speed and reaction time out of the gates are everything. These are tight fields and the margins will be razor-thin.

Race 3 is where things get genuinely compelling. Big Hug comes in at 1/5 on the morning line — heavy chalk, yes — but a TrackWiz rating of 90 backs that price up convincingly. Going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, this is a horse our analysis identifies as a clear class standout. Chalk at 1/5 doesn't mean automatic profit, but when the data lines up this cleanly, the play is hard to fade.

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Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A fascinating six-furlong Stakes where the morning-line favorite and the TrackWiz top-rated horse are two different horses — that's the kind of overlay situation that gets handicappers excited.

win4Asiniy's StormML 3/1

Asiniy's Storm carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 for trainer Karline Kingston, yet sits at 3/1 on the morning line — meaning the public is backing Socialization (4/5) more aggressively. Keihton Natera gets the ride, and an average speed figure of 53 matches up well with the competitive set in this race. When our model sees a gap this wide between the top-rated horse and the betting favorite, that's a value angle worth pressing.

place3SocializationML 4/5

Socialization carries a 100% career win rate and a 4/5 morning line, which tells you the crowd isn't wrong to respect this horse. Trainer James R. Brown sends out Rico W. Walcott, and the perfect record demands respect — though the absence of a recorded speed figure introduces some uncertainty. A solid place play for bettors who want the favorite covered without paying chalk-level win prices.

show2Queen AstridML 8/1

Queen Astrid at 8/1 morning line is an interesting show value with a 55.04 TrackWiz rating and a speed figure of 53 that keeps her competitive in this field. Trainer Rodney J. Cone and jockey Alexander Marti team up here, and while she's yet to break her maiden, the rating is respectable enough to make her a live longshot in the trifecta. At those odds, she brings legitimate upside to your exotic bets.

Race 5

12:45 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Midnight Moover looms as a massive favorite in this six-furlong Stakes, but there's a wide-open battle shaping up behind the chalk that could produce some generous exacta and trifecta payouts.

win6Midnight MooverML 1/5

Midnight Moover is a 1/5 morning-line monster with a 100% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 60 — topped only by a clean record and the best speed figure in the field at 55. Trainer William H. Leech sends this one out under Alexander Marti, a combination that's been effective across the card today. At this price, this is about using Midnight Moover in exotics rather than betting the win pool — but the horse clearly earns the top slot.

place2Just Like RexML 8/1

Just Like Rex draws post 2 at 8/1 and holds a 48.33 TrackWiz rating for trainer Carson Frey under jockey Brian Boodramsingh. There's no speed figure on record, which keeps the uncertainty elevated, but the rating and the wide morning-line price make this a smart place play to back against the overwhelming favorite in the exacta.

show7Patriot's WordML 10/1

Patriot's Word brings a 100% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 to the table at 10/1 morning line — the highest career win percentage among the horses we're targeting below the chalk. Trainer Karline Kingston, who also handles Asiniy's Storm in Race 4, saddles this one with Amadeo Perez. If you're building a trifecta around Midnight Moover on top, Patriot's Word is a logical third-leg inclusion at double-digit odds.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong Stakes is the most competitive race on the card — two horses rated in the upper 80s are going head-to-head, and a legitimate 10/1 value play lurks as a show contender.

win4River SevenML 7/5

River Seven tops TrackWiz ratings in this race at 89.42 with a 20% career win percentage and an average speed of 55 — tied for best in the field — and trainer Joan Petrowski sends out Antonio Ambrosio Reyes for the assignment. At 7/5, the morning line reflects public confidence, and the rating edge over most of the field is real. This is a race where the top two rated horses are very close, making single-race win bets on River Seven reasonable if you believe in the model.

place5Wedge PondML 5/2

Wedge Pond is breathing right down River Seven's neck with a 87.81 TrackWiz rating and the field's top career win percentage at 34%. Trainer Jason Coney and jockey Jose Mariano Asencio combine here, and with a speed figure of 55 matching River Seven's mark, this one has the raw ability to win outright. At 5/2, Wedge Pond is an excellent place horse and a genuine win threat if River Seven runs into trouble.

show2Tennessee MosesML 10/1

Tennessee Moses at 10/1 morning line is a sharp value angle for show and exotics — a 72.21 TrackWiz rating puts this horse third in the field, well ahead of the remaining competition. Trainer James R. Brown and jockey Alexander Marti are a strong pairing, and a speed figure of 54 is competitive with the top horses. If you're building a trifecta around the top two, Tennessee Moses at double-digit odds gives you real payout upside in the third slot.

Race 7

1:45 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

An interesting Stakes at 1 1/16 miles where the morning-line favorite is NOT the top TrackWiz-rated horse — Lil Miss Addy holds a significant edge over Sixty Six on our model despite being priced nearly six times higher.

win1Lil Miss AddyML 7/2

Lil Miss Addy has the field's top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 with a 27% career win rate and a speed figure of 53 under trainer Gonzalo Anderson and jockey Dane Nelson. What makes this compelling is the morning-line price of 7/2 — the public is betting Sixty Six at 3/5, but our model rates Lil Miss Addy more than 12 points higher. That kind of disconnect between market price and analytical rating is exactly the overlay situation TrackWiz is built to surface.

place4Sixty SixML 3/5

Sixty Six goes off at 3/5 morning line with a 73.36 rating and a 16% career win percentage for trainer David Nicholson with Kyle Carter in the saddle. The public clearly respects this horse, and it's not wrong to include Sixty Six in exotics — but if Lil Miss Addy fires at anywhere near her model rating, the chalk may be looking at a runner-up finish. A solid place anchor that could easily flip to first.

show5Hiway FortynineML 4/1

Hiway Fortynine at 4/1 morning line has a 65.50 TrackWiz rating with a strong 30% career win rate for trainer Rodney J. Cone under Antonio Ambrosio Reyes. The speed figure of 52 is slightly below the top horses, but the career win percentage here is better than both Sixty Six and Lil Miss Addy. At a fair price, Hiway Fortynine is a legitimate show bet and a trifecta consideration in what could be a more contested pace than the morning line suggests.

Race 8

2:15 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Papichulo and Flashfordani set up as a two-horse battle in this 1 1/16-mile Stakes, but there's a significant overlay at the top when our ratings diverge sharply from the morning-line pricing.

win6PapichuloML 4/1

Papichulo is our top selection at 4/1 morning line with a field-best TrackWiz rating of 85.62 and an impressive 45% career win percentage — both metrics lead this field by a substantial margin. Trainer Colten Mead saddles this one with Jose Mariano Asencio, who also has the mount on Wedge Pond in Race 6. With an average speed of 53 and the strongest strike rate in the field, Papichulo looks like a genuine overlay at 4/1 when the morning-line favorite Flashfordani goes off at 8/5.

place7FlashfordaniML 8/5

Flashfordani is the 8/5 morning-line favorite for trainer Karline Kingston with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes in the irons, carrying a 78.38 rating and a 14% career win rate with a speed figure of 54 — actually a tick better than the win pick. The public price is justified by raw talent, but if Papichulo is as good as our model says, Flashfordani is the natural place finisher. Include in exactas both ways.

show1Holiday's AgainML 8/1

Holiday's Again brings a 72.29 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win percentage — the third-best rate in the field — to post 1 at 8/1 for trainer Tim Rycroft under Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez. The speed figure of 53 is competitive, and a 1-in-4 career win rate shows this horse knows how to hit the board. At 8/1, this is a legitimate show play and a trifecta wheel piece with some upside.

Race 9

2:45 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The finale is a wide-open 1 1/16-mile Stakes with ten horses and a genuine upset pick: our top selection goes off at 10/1 despite holding the field's highest TrackWiz rating.

win10Little Did We KnowML 10/1

Little Did We Know is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in Race 9 at 76.88, yet draws a 10/1 morning line — a significant disconnect that's hard to ignore. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson sends out Dane Nelson, who is also aboard Lil Miss Addy in Race 7, giving this jockey a busy but productive evening. With a 12% career win rate and an average speed of 53, this horse fits the pace profile of a closer who can sneak through late in a ten-horse field. If you're looking for a value win bet on the card, this is it.

place6Pour HouseML 5/1

Pour House rates sixth by morning line at 5/1 but ranks second in our model at 61.83 with a speed figure of 53 for trainer Todd Kettleson and jockey Keihton Natera. A 10% career win percentage suggests this horse is more of a place-and-show regular than a consistent winner, but the rating gap between Pour House and the morning-line favorite Kamal (6/5, rated 53.59) is notable — Pour House shows better on our model at a substantially friendlier price.

show2Big Bad BizookeML 5/1

Big Bad Bizooke draws post 2 at 5/1 for trainer Tim Rycroft under Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez, with a 54.74 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 53 that keeps this horse honest at this level. No career wins yet, but the rating and speed figure are competitive in the back half of this ten-horse field, making Big Bad Bizooke a reasonable show target and a trifecta inclusion for bettors looking to build payouts around the upset-priced win pick.

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Bottom line — today at Century Mile offers a layered, stakes-heavy card with a dominant favorite in Big Hug, value-priced intrigue in the sprints, and a 10/1 finale worth exploring. Free picks cover Races 1–3 and give you a strong starting point. For the full card — pace scenarios, exotic structures, and the complete longshot case — it's all waiting for subscribers. Good luck at the windows today.

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