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Century Mile Picks & Predictions — September 11, 2026

September 11, 20268 racesAll Century Mile picks

Century Mile is hosting an 8-race all-dirt card today under overcast skies with temperatures sitting at a crisp 53°F. That cool, dry air can firm up the surface nicely, and on days like this the track tends to play fair — no excuses for underperformers.

The card runs the full spectrum from maiden optional claiming openers all the way up to allowance optional claiming in Race 7, so there's something for every type of player. Whether you're hunting a single sharp win bet or building toward a multi-race sequence, there's plenty to work with today.

Three races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, and the remaining five are part of our full premium breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 AM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden field at 6½ furlongs with three horses bunched tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — this one is closer than the morning line suggests, and the chalk could easily get caught.

win5Golden GooseML 4/5

Golden Goose tops our ratings at 75.48 despite being the heavy 4/5 morning-line favorite, and the average speed figure of 54 matches the top of this field. Trainer Tom Rycroft sends Jose Mariano Asencio aboard, a pairing worth watching at Century Mile. In a maiden field where nobody has broken their maiden yet, the ratings edge here is real — Golden Goose has the most complete profile in the race.

place3She's a RowskiML 8/1

She's a Rowski actually leads the entire field with the highest TrackWiz rating at 74.21, just a tick ahead of our win pick, which makes the 8/1 morning line look like a gift. Trainer Seymour Biggs has her in a competitive spot, and Linton Leon Steadman picks up the mount. If you're playing exotics, this horse is a must-use — the value gap between her rating and her odds is the widest in the race.

show1ChablisML 9/5

Chablis comes in at 72.08 on our ratings — the third-highest in the field — and draws the rail for jockey Antonio Ambrosio Reyes. At 9/5 on the morning line she's likely to be bet down even further, but as an exotic hedge in a tight three-horse cluster at the top, she earns her place here. Trainer Dino K. Condilenios keeps her competitive in this maiden optional claiming spot.

Race 2

12:45 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite and the TrackWiz top-rated horse don't match up here — a potential overlay is sitting at 2/1 while the public lines up behind a shorter price, setting up a sharp angle for the savvy bettor.

win1Tool TimeML 2/1

Tool Time is the standout in this starter optional claiming field, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — nearly 20 points clear of the next horse. A 28% career win rate is elite at this level, and trainer Tim Rycroft has him sharp for Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez. The 2/1 morning line actually represents solid value given that rating gap, and at 5½ furlongs on dirt, a horse with that kind of raw figure should be able to dictate pace.

place2Indio MaraML 7/5

Indio Mara is the public's choice at 7/5, but our analysis has her second here with a 69.62 rating and a 22% career win rate. Rico W. Walcott has a live mount — this filly clearly has talent — but the rating gap between her and Tool Time is significant enough to make her a place play rather than a win bet at this price. She's a logical key for exactas underneath.

show5Stone CarverML 4/1

Stone Carver sits third in our ratings at 65.82 with a career win rate of 27%, which is quietly strong for a horse sitting at 4/1 on the morning line. Trainer Rodney J. Cone sends out Jose Mariano Asencio, and the numbers suggest this horse consistently fires. In a six-horse field, a 27% winner off a solid rating profile makes Stone Carver a dependable show play and a live exacta partner.

Race 3

1:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two double-digit longshots — Just Ken at 15/1 and Jackpot Bar at 12/1 — come in with the two highest TrackWiz ratings in the field, creating a genuine upset scenario that the morning line completely undervalues.

win1Just KenML 15/1

Just Ken leads our ratings at 69.58 despite the 15/1 morning line, and that disconnect is the heart of this play. Richard Balgobin gets the mount for trainer Tim Rycroft, who also saddles Counter Cat in this race — when a barn doubles up, both horses are live. The average speed figure of 54 ties for best in the field, and an 11% career win rate in claiming company suggests consistent competitiveness rather than a horse that blows up. At 15/1, the overlay case is strong.

place5Jackpot BarML 12/1

Jackpot Bar sits just a half-point behind Just Ken in our ratings at 69.07, and the 12/1 morning line makes this another significant overlay. Trainer Carson Frey has him at 20% for his career — that's a legitimate strike rate — and jockey Keihton Natera gives him a capable pilot. In a race where the two best-rated horses are both double-digit longshots, the place pool on Jackpot Bar could pay extremely well.

show6Counter CatML 8/5

Counter Cat is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and posts a 62.22 rating — lower than both of our top picks — but the Tim Rycroft barn angle is real here. Rycroft trains both Just Ken and Counter Cat, and Jose Mariano Asencio takes the mount on Counter Cat, which could be a signal about where the barn's confidence lies. An 11% win rate keeps expectations measured, but at 8/5, she's a logical show anchor if you're playing the exotics.

Our three free races today give you a solid cross-section of the card. Race 1 sends us straight into maiden optional claiming territory over 6½ furlongs, where Golden Goose opens as the heavy 4/5 morning-line favorite — a horse that short in price demands scrutiny, but our rating of 75.48 suggests the chalk has earned it. Race 2 flips the script a bit: Tool Time checks in at 2/1 in a 5½-furlong starter optional claiming affair and carries our highest free-race rating at 88.54, which is a number that commands serious respect at that price.

Race 3 is where things get really interesting for the value hunters. Just Ken goes off at a juicy 15/1 on the morning line in a 6½-furlong claimer, yet our TrackWiz analysis still lands him as the top pick. A double-digit price on a top-rated horse is exactly the kind of overlay this game is built on — approach with eyes open, but don't dismiss it.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:45 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Squalotoro's 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure — highest in the field — make this look like a class standout in a claiming sprint, but the 4/5 morning line on Pisco suggests the public sees a two-horse race.

win4SqualotoroML 2/1

Squalotoro is the class of this field by our metrics, with a 88.54 rating that ties for the top mark on the entire nine-race card — and an average speed figure of 55 that's a full tick better than any other horse in this race. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes picks up the mount for trainer Carson Frey, and a 12% career win rate in claiming company is respectable. The 2/1 morning line offers fair value for the top-rated horse, and in a six-furlong dirt sprint, raw speed figures matter most.

place6PiscoML 4/5

Pisco enters as the morning-line favorite at 4/5 — which tells you the public is split on this race — and backs that up with a 76.23 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed figure. Jose Mariano Asencio gets a key mount for trainer Tom Rycroft, and a 14% career win rate at this level is workable. If Squalotoro gets to the front and controls the pace, Pisco has the figures to chase her down for a piece.

show1Man At the PulpitML 6/1

Man At the Pulpit is the sleeper in this spot. A 33% career win rate is the best in the field — that kind of consistency at the claiming level is hard to ignore — and trainer Tom Rycroft has two horses in this race, giving the barn options. His 73.78 rating is third-best in the field, and Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez is a capable pilot. The 6/1 morning line makes him an attractive show play and a live exacta wheel underneath the top two.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Glava's dominant rating stands well above a competitive seven-horse starter optional claiming field, but Perdition lurking at 5/1 with a strong figure could make the exacta a compelling play at generous odds.

win3GlavaML 5/2

Glava leads our ratings by a comfortable margin at 87.81 — over nine points clear of the next horse — and averages a 55 speed figure, tied for tops in the field. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson sends out Dane Nelson, and a 24% career win rate signals this is a horse that knows how to win. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for the top selection; in a seven-horse field with this kind of ratings separation, Glava deserves to be bet.

place7PerditionML 5/1

Perdition comes in as a value play at 5/1 on the morning line with a 78.22 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and a 23% career win rate. Trainer Joan Petrowski sends out Antonio Ambrosio Reyes, and that combination has been active on this card. The 6½-furlong distance on dirt at Century Mile should suit a horse averaging 54 in speed figures. If Glava gets into any trouble or faces early pressure, Perdition is the horse most likely to pick up the pieces.

show1Deal EmML 7/2

Deal Em draws the rail post and comes in at 74.47 on our ratings with a 17% career win rate. Trainer Colleen O'Hagan keeps her competitive at this starter optional claiming level, and Keimar Trotman is a capable rider for the spot. The 7/2 morning line makes her a reasonable show investment — she's not the flashiest play in the race, but a horse with a top-three rating that gets a clear trip from the inside should hit the board.

Race 6

2:45 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Benzene runs as a heavy favorite on paper, but in a seven-horse maiden claiming field going two turns at 7 furlongs, the pace scenario could get messy and the place and show picks offer real value at fair prices.

win5BenzeneML 2/1

Benzene tops our ratings at 88.54 — matching the highest mark we've seen anywhere on today's card — and averages a 52 speed figure in a field where most rivals are checking in at 51. Trainer David Nicholson has her primed for Ridge Balgobin, and the 2/1 morning line is surprisingly reasonable for a horse with this kind of ratings gap over maiden company. The 7-furlong dirt distance is the one question mark, but the class separation here is hard to argue with.

place1Sunday RainML 5/2

Sunday Rain leads all other contenders in our ratings at 55.08 and gets the rail post with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes aboard for trainer Deanne Davies. An average speed figure of 51 is in line with the field, but the ratings edge over the rest of the non-Benzene group makes her the logical place horse. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's not a screaming overlay, but she's the right second choice on the numbers.

show4Chasing DaydreamsML 7/2

Chasing Daydreams sits third in our ratings at 54.03 — just a tick behind Sunday Rain — and shows a slightly higher average speed figure of 52, which is the best of the remaining field outside of Benzene. Trainer Rodney J. Cone sends out Keihton Natera, and the 7/2 morning line gives her modest value. In a maiden field where pace can get chaotic over seven furlongs, a horse with legitimate figures who can rate mid-pack and close is exactly the type to sneak into third.

Race 7

3:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The deepest race on the card — eight allowance optional claiming runners with four horses carrying ratings above 64 — and two of the best by our numbers are priced at 5/2 and 6/1, creating a genuine value split.

win6Goldie MonroeML 5/2

Goldie Monroe posts an 84.48 TrackWiz rating and carries a 33% career win rate into a competitive allowance optional claiming field — that win percentage at this level is exceptional. Rafael Zenteno Jr. picks up the mount for trainer Geovani Olalde, and a 54 average speed figure is at the top tier of this field. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's a legitimate overlay given her ratings position, and a 33% winner in any company commands respect.

place7Unveil the GraceML 6/1

Unveil the Grace is the value angle in this race — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating puts her just 1.77 points behind Goldie Monroe, but the morning line has her at 6/1. Trainer Craig Robert Smith and jockey Richard Balgobin team up, and a 22% career win rate in allowance company is solid. The ratings gap between her and the morning-line favorite is razor-thin, which makes 6/1 an attractive price. She's the type to sit a couple lengths off the pace and get there.

show1LoveaboveandbeyondML 6/1

Loveaboveandbeyond checks in third on our ratings at 72.04 and pairs that with a 33% career win rate — tied for the best in the field alongside Goldie Monroe and Gimlet. Jose Mariano Asencio gets the call for trainer Marvin Buffalo, and a 53 average speed figure keeps her competitive in the pace scenario at 6½ furlongs. The 6/1 morning line makes her a live longshot-show play and a logical include in trifecta coverage.

Race 8

3:45 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden claiming field at 7 furlongs closes out the card, and Dale's Magic enters as the TrackWiz top pick with the highest rating on the entire day's card — the favorite question is whether the field can challenge her at all.

win6Dale's MagicML 3/2

Dale's Magic leads not just this race but the entire Century Mile card with an 89.27 TrackWiz rating, and trainer Karline Kingston sends out Rico W. Walcott — a strong combination in maiden company. An average speed figure of 53 is tied for best in this field, and the 3/2 morning line, while short, reflects a genuine advantage over eleven runners. In maiden claiming sprints, a horse this far ahead of the field on raw ratings tends to get the job done.

place3Swift KahunaML 5/2

Swift Kahuna comes in second in our ratings at 82.32 with a 53 average speed figure that matches Dale's Magic — this filly has real ability. Trainer Deanna Walper also saddles Ari Ready in this race, but Swift Kahuna clearly has the stronger profile, and Dane Nelson is a reliable pilot. The 5/2 morning line is fair value for a horse that figures to be the main threat to the favorite, and the exacta of Dale's Magic over Swift Kahuna deserves serious consideration.

show11Due CoarseML 10/1

Due Coarse is a sneaky show play at 10/1 — a 75.47 TrackWiz rating makes her third-best in an eleven-horse field, and trainer Craig Robert Smith puts Silvino Morales on board. An average speed figure of 52 is a step behind the top two but well ahead of most of this field. In a large maiden claiming field, the show pool can get distributed widely, and a horse with a top-three rating at 10/1 is exactly the kind of overlay that pays well in the show spot.

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Today at Century Mile it's all about identifying spots where the numbers back the price — and Race 3's Just Ken at 15/1 is the kind of opportunity you circle on the program. Golden Goose and Tool Time anchor the free card, while Dale's Magic and the rest of the premium field round out what shapes up as a sharp, competitive afternoon. Full analysis, pace scenarios, and exotic plays are waiting for subscribers — don't go in blind.

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