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Century Mile Picks & Predictions — August 22, 2026

August 22, 202612 racesAll Century Mile picks

It's a big Saturday at Century Mile. Twelve races on the dirt, partly cloudy skies overhead, and a comfortable 80°F making for ideal racing conditions — the kind of afternoon where the track can really show its true nature. No weather excuses today, no mudders getting a free pass. Pure form.

The headliner? A four-stakes gauntlet in the back half of the card — Races 8 through 11 — capped by a 1¼-mile closer where TrackWiz analysis has flagged 10/1 morning-line shot Big Curl as a legitimate threat. Stakes days at Century Mile have a way of rewarding the patient bettor, and today's card gives you plenty of chances to build toward those big-ticket finishes.

Races 1–3 are open to all readers. Races 4–12 are behind the paywall. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The morning line favorite gets a serious rating challenge here — TrackWiz numbers flip the script on the 7/5 chalk and point toward a pair of overlooked contenders at generous prices.

win5EitherinorinthewayML 8/1

Eitherinorintheway is the clear TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field with a 79.79 — and at 8/1 on the morning line, that's the kind of disconnect that makes value players salivate. A 20% career win rate is the best among the legitimate contenders, and Brian Boodramsingh gets the call for trainer Jason Coney. Over a mile and 70 yards of dirt, horses with the stamina edge tend to take over late, and this one's profile fits that profile nicely.

place7Barney GoogleML 6/1

Barney Google (70.95 rating) sits just a tick below the top two in TrackWiz score and brings a respectable 12% career win rate into a race where the chalk looks vulnerable. Amadeo Perez has been a consistent presence in the Century Mile jockey colony, and at 6/1 this horse offers real place value in what could be a chaotic pace scenario over the longer dirt route.

show6WillingnessML 5/2

Willingness checks in at a 70.43 TrackWiz rating and opens at 5/2, making it the second choice on the morning line despite our numbers ranking it third. That short price limits upside, but Mauricio Malvaez in the irons and an 11% career win rate make this a sensible hedge in exacta and trifecta tickets. If pace gets hot up front, a closer like this one could be picking up pieces late.

Race 2

9:15 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Lord of Battle looks like an absolute steamroller on paper, but the real question is whether the 6/1 shots behind him can sort out who grabs second money in this allowance sprint.

win3Lord of BattleML EVN

Lord of Battle is one of the most dominant profiles on the entire card — a 90 TrackWiz rating, an even-money morning line, a 42% career win rate, and the highest average speed figure in the field at 56. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson also saddled Mr. Who in this same race, which suggests real stable confidence in this barn. Antonio Whitehall gets the mount, and frankly, this horse needs to fall apart for anyone else to win.

place5Bar Down ExpressML 6/1

Bar Down Express is quietly intriguing at 6/1 with a 76.44 TrackWiz rating and that 55 average speed figure matching the higher tier of this field. Tim Rycroft conditions this one and Jose Mariano Asencio rides — a solid combination at Century Mile. If Lord of Battle has any trouble at all, this is the horse most likely to capitalizing on the pace scenario over 6.5 furlongs.

show1Mr. WhoML 6/1

Mr. Who owns the best career win percentage in this field at 22%, which is a stat that doesn't lie in allowance company. The 66.19 TrackWiz rating is solid for a show play, and Gonzalo Anderson running him back in the same race as Lord of Battle is interesting — perhaps this is the stable's secondary weapon. At 6/1 on the morning line, he's worth including underneath in trifecta coverage.

Race 3

10:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Two horses — Puttingonthefoil and Ghostly Spitfire — tower over this allowance optional claiming field in the ratings, setting up a potential match race with a third contender lurking underneath.

win5PuttingonthefoilML 8/5

Puttingonthefoil earns the top TrackWiz score in Race 3 at 89.12, and the 8/5 morning line confirms the market agrees. That 55 average speed figure is best in the field, and a 25% career win rate from a Gonzalo Anderson barn that's been consistently placing horses — this is a horse that should be controlling the late stages of this mile-and-70 route. Dane Nelson gets the call and is one of the sharper riders on the grounds.

place6Ghostly SpitfireML 7/2

Ghostly Spitfire (78.21 rating) is the clear second choice in our model and opens at 7/2 with Jose Mariano Asencio up for Tim Rycroft. The 16% career win rate is modest, but the 54 average speed figure is competitive, and this horse's profile suggests it may be better than that number reflects — allowance optional claiming conditions can attract horses on the way up. If Puttingonthefoil hits any traffic, Ghostly Spitfire is positioned to collect.

show4TitianML 6/1

Titian comes in with a 71.07 TrackWiz score and a solid 23% career win rate — the latter number being quite strong for a show consideration. Amadeo Perez rides for Makayla Edwards at 6/1, and at a distance of a mile and 70 yards, that career consistency in terms of hitting the board matters. A good place to include this one on the bottom of trifecta tickets.

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of the card — a Claiming mile-and-seventies opener, a 6½-furlong Allowance sprint, and an Allowance Optional Claiming route. All dirt, all carrying the kind of pace scenarios that reward horses who rate early and finish strong on a fair, dry surface like today's Century Mile strip.

TrackWiz's top free pick in Race 1 is Eitherinorintheway at a juicy 8/1 morning line — a rating of 79.79 that suggests legitimate upside at a price worth playing. In Race 2, Lord of Battle comes in as the even-money favorite with a field-best 90.00 rating — the strongest number in the free-race group, and for good reason. Then Puttingonthefoil closes out the free tier in Race 3 at 8/5, rated 89.12 — a short-priced figure horse in a spot that looks tailor-made. Three distinct race types, three horses with different profiles. There's a ticket to build here before you even get to the premium card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite comes in at even money but TrackWiz rates Caravalla as the clear top of this claiming field — a meaningful divergence that's worth paying attention to over six furlongs.

win7CaravallaML 5/1

Caravalla tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 4 at 84.17 despite opening at 5/1 on the morning line — that gap between our rating and the public's price is exactly where value lives. Keihton Natera picks up the mount for trainer Rick Hedge, and while the career win rate of 9% might give pause, TrackWiz analysis points to a horse whose raw capability hasn't been fully reflected in results yet. Six furlongs on dirt suits a horse that can dictate or stalk the pace scenario here.

place6Run as OneML EVN

Run as One is the morning line favorite at even money with a 67.50 TrackWiz rating, and while our model ranks it second in the field, the class and consistency are real. Kyle Carter rides for trainer Marvin Buffalo, and that 11% career win rate over what appears to be a competitive career profile makes this a logical place horse. At even money, there's limited win value, but keeping it underneath Caravalla in exactas makes a lot of sense.

show2Ah ToucheML 3/1

Ah Touche opens at 3/1 with a 56.89 rating — third best in the field — and trainer Gonzalo Anderson has been one of the more reliable barns at Century Mile throughout this card. The 7% career win rate is low, but Rico W. Walcott gets the mount and this horse's speed figures are competitive enough to factor for a piece. Worth including on the bottom of exotics as a hedge against the top two.

Race 5

11:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep eleven-horse starter optional claiming sprint with several horses rated closely together, but one standout rises above the crowd and looks worth trusting at a fair price.

win9Mamba On ThreeML 3/1

Mamba On Three tops this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 56 — a meaningful edge in a sprint where pure ability often wins. The 20% career win rate is respectable in this kind of competitive field, and Kimal Santo gets the mount for trainer Jerri R. Robertson. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate win play, not a sacrifice bet.

place6All RunML 5/1

All Run has a strong 78.23 TrackWiz score and brings Amadeo Perez into the irons — a jockey who's been active and competitive all card long. Trainer Deanne Davies sends this one out at 5/1, which is fair value for a horse that rates second in the field. The 10% career win rate is the one caution flag, but in a wide-open starter optional field, place money is very much in play.

show5GlavaML 12/1

Glava is the TrackWiz value play in this race — a 72.47 rating at 12/1 on the morning line is a significant overlay if the price holds. Dane Nelson rides for Gonzalo Anderson, who has been one of the top trainers on this card, and a 22% career win rate gives this horse genuine credentials. At double-digit odds, sprinkling Glava on the bottom of exotics could pay off in a big way.

Race 6

11:30 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are essentially deadlocked at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this allowance optional claiming dash, making it one of the tightest — and most interesting — races on the card.

win2RockcliffeML 2/1

Rockcliffe leads our model at 83.43 and opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite, which is rare alignment between TrackWiz and the public. Jose Mariano Asencio rides for Tim Rycroft — a trainer who has multiple horses firing on this card — and a 20% career win rate provides a reliable baseline. Over 6.5 furlongs on dirt, Rockcliffe's speed figure of 54 is competitive with the top tier, and the combination of rating, price, and connections makes this a confident top selection.

place1Snap to ItML 6/1

Snap to It is just 0.72 rating points behind Rockcliffe at 82.71, making this a near-coin-flip at the top — but the 6/1 morning line on Snap to It is where the value lives. Amadeo Perez rides for trainer Barbara Heads, and a 15% career win rate with that elite rating suggests this horse may be slightly underestimated by oddsmakers. In a race this tight at the top, place money on Snap to It at those odds is a smart play.

show10King ElvisML 7/2

King Elvis posts an 81.24 TrackWiz rating and opens at 7/2 — third in our ratings but carrying a 16% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure that matches the top horses in the field. Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez rides for Tom Rycroft, and with three horses this closely bunched, King Elvis is exactly the type of show play that can generate nice trifecta returns. Don't overlook the pace setup — with pressure throughout this field, a closer could be getting home late.

Race 7

12:00 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

An eleven-horse starter optional claiming field at a route distance, where the morning line favorite at 7/5 actually rates slightly below our top-rated horse — and that gap creates a real betting opportunity.

win6Mr MorrisML 6/1

Mr Morris tops the TrackWiz leaderboard at 82.71 and opens at 6/1, while the public's 7/5 choice rates meaningfully below him in our model. That's the kind of market inefficiency we look for. Amadeo Perez is up for Geovani Olalde, and a 21% career win rate is solid for this level. The 55 average speed figure is the best in the race, and over a mile and 70 yards, that late-running ability could be decisive.

place5Strait of GeorgiaML 7/5

Strait of Georgia (81.13 rating) is the 7/5 morning line choice and carries a 28% career win rate — the highest among the top-tier contenders and a number that absolutely commands respect. Kimal Santo rides for Robertino Diodoro, a trainer with a strong Century Mile presence. Even if our model has Mr Morris slightly ahead, Strait of Georgia's win percentage says this horse finds the winner's circle regularly, and place money here is very safe.

show8DerzkiiML 8/1

Derzkii slots in third in our ratings at 70.81 and opens at 8/1 — a horse that's rated above several horses with shorter prices. Trainer Ron Grieves sends out this one with N'Rico Prescod in the saddle, and a 16% career win rate is consistent enough to land a piece in a stretched eleven-horse field. Keep this one on trifecta tickets as solid underneath coverage.

Race 8

12:30 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The featured stakes race features a fascinating matchup between a horse with an extraordinary career win percentage and the TrackWiz top-rated contender — this one could be the best head-to-head duel of the night.

win4Big HugML 9/5

Big Hug leads the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and opens at 9/5 — a career win rate of 52% is simply exceptional and puts this horse in elite company on the card. Rafael Zenteno Jr. gets the mount for Rick Hedge, and the stakes conditions clearly suit a horse with this kind of high-level consistency. At a mile and 70 yards, Big Hug's combination of raw rating and proven winning ability makes this the most compelling top selection of the card's stakes portion.

place1Chi Chi TimeML 2/1

Chi Chi Time is the one horse in the field whose career win rate tells a truly remarkable story — 100% on the morning line at 2/1. Pat Jarvis trains and Kimal Santo rides, and with an 82.92 TrackWiz rating, this horse is legitimate. However unbeaten records eventually get tested in stakes company, and place looks like the smart way to include this fascinating entry on your ticket without overextending.

show7DontgiveupthefightML 5/2

Dontgiveupthefight opens at 5/2 and carries a 50% career win rate — another horse with elite winning credentials in this small but deep stakes field. Rico W. Walcott rides for Robertino Diodoro, and the 50.69 TrackWiz rating is noticeably below the top two, which is why show is the right spot. If pace gets contentious between Big Hug and Chi Chi Time, this horse could pick up the pieces in deep stretch.

Race 9

1:00 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse stakes field going 1 1/8 miles features a clear TrackWiz standout at a workable price, while a pair of value horses underneath make the exotics especially compelling.

win7PlayfulML 5/2

Playful dominates this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — comfortably ahead of the second-ranked horse — and opens at 5/2 with a 41% career win rate that is among the elite on the entire card. Dane Nelson is in the irons for Gonzalo Anderson, a trainer who has been one of the most active and productive connections running through tonight's program. The 55 average speed figure is best in this stakes field, and at 1 1/8 miles, there's plenty of room for a quality horse to assert itself.

place8What a ForceML 5/1

What a Force posts a 76.23 TrackWiz rating and a 37% career win rate — both legitimately strong numbers for a stakes runner. Jose Mariano Asencio rides for Tim Rycroft, who has multiple contenders live on this card, and the 54 average speed figure is second-best in the field. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's real place value here if you believe the top two can hold form.

show1Hiway FortynineML 10/1

Hiway Fortynine is a sneaky show play at 10/1 with a 62.04 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate — that winning percentage is genuinely impressive for a stakes horse at a double-digit price. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes rides for Rodney J. Cone, and at 1 1/8 miles, a horse with this kind of career consistency can easily latch onto third money when the heavy favorites take each other on up front.

Race 10

1:30 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

The biggest field of the night — twelve horses going a mile and a quarter in stakes company — creates a chaotic pace scenario where TrackWiz's top-rated horse opens at a juicy 9/2 and represents real wagering value.

win5Fireman DanML 9/2

Fireman Dan tops this twelve-horse stakes field with an 81.18 TrackWiz rating despite opening at 9/2 on the morning line — the market appears to be focused elsewhere, which is fine by us. Brian Boodramsingh rides for Jason Coney, and while the 8% career win rate would normally raise flags, the raw capability here is hard to ignore against a sprawling field at 1 1/4 miles. In big fields at a route distance, pace gets complex and the best-rated horse often survives the chaos.

place12SunbirdML 8/1

Sunbird comes in at 79.79 — just 1.39 points behind our top pick — and opens at 8/1 with a 40% career win rate that commands serious respect. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes rides for Geovani Olalde, and the 54 average speed figure is right in the mix. Place money on a horse with this level of career winning ability at 8/1 is exactly the kind of bet that pays off over a long season.

show2Love PackML 6/1

Love Pack posts a 77.50 TrackWiz score and an eye-catching 52% career win rate — one of the highest on the entire card — while opening at 6/1 for Tim Rycroft with Jose Mariano Asencio in the irons. That career win percentage screams quality even if the TrackWiz rating puts this one third. In a twelve-horse field at a mile and a quarter, show tickets on a horse this accomplished at 6/1 are well worth punching.

Race 11

2:30 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

The penultimate stakes race of the night features a massive thirteen-horse field and our top pick opens at double-digit odds — a genuine longshot value situation where the TrackWiz numbers and the morning line are miles apart.

win8Big CurlML 10/1

Big Curl is our top-rated horse in Race 11 at 76.88, opening at 10/1 in a thirteen-horse stakes field — that's the signature overlay of the night. Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez rides for Tim Rycroft, who has been one of the most active trainers on this card with multiple live horses. The 25% career win rate and 54 average speed figure are solid for stakes company, and at 1 1/4 miles, horses with stamina and quality tend to surface even when they're not on everyone's radar.

place4QuarryML 9/2

Quarry opens at 9/2 with a 66.61 TrackWiz rating and while the 7% career win rate is a legitimate concern, Damario Bynoe rides for trainer Jerry Gourneau — a combination worth tracking in stakes races. Our model ranks this horse second in the field, and place money at 9/2 gives you exposure to what could be a top-three finish without leaning too hard into an uncertain win probability. A pace that gets honest could benefit a presser type.

show7Really RalisML 4/1

Really Ralis enters at 4/1 with a 63.59 TrackWiz rating and an extraordinary 60% career win rate — a number that is impossible to dismiss even if the raw rating ranks third. Kerron Khelawan rides for Cindy Krasner, and horses with that kind of career consistency know how to put themselves in position. At 4/1 in a thirteen-horse field, this is actually a legitimate show play with upside.

Race 12

3:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The closing allowance optional claiming route features a TrackWiz standout at 6/1 that should draw plenty of sharp action — and two closely-rated horses right behind her make the exacta box worth considering.

win9Appreciate TodayML 6/1

Appreciate Today leads Race 12 with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and opens at 6/1 — a number that should shorten dramatically once sharp money arrives. Amadeo Perez gets the call for trainer Barbara Heads, who has been one of the more prominent connections on this card, and a 33% career win rate is flat-out elite for this level. The 54 average speed figure is among the best in the field, and over a mile and 70 yards, that combination of quality and stamina tends to prevail.

place6Drinking AgainML 5/2

Drinking Again comes in at 68.10 on the TrackWiz scale and opens as the 5/2 morning line second choice — the market has this one correctly identified as the main competition. Jose Mariano Asencio rides for Tom Rycroft, and a 18% career win rate is workable. The place price on a 5/2 shot is modest, but keeping this one in exactas beneath Appreciate Today is sound strategy for the nightcap.

show4Need the PurseML 7/2

Need the Purse opens at 7/2 with a 67.66 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate — genuinely strong credentials for a show play in an allowance optional claiming route. Kimal Santo is up for Robertino Diodoro, a trainer who also has Need the Purse entered in Race 11, suggesting this barn is in good form and pitching their runners at multiple angles tonight. Including this one on the bottom of trifecta tickets is a sharp way to close out the card.

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Bottom line: today's Century Mile card is one worth playing start to finish. Lord of Battle and Puttingonthefoil headline the free tier as the most confident figures on the board, while Eitherinorintheway at 8/1 is the kind of early-race value play that gets the day started right. In the stakes races, Big Curl at 10/1 is the longshot angle subscribers will want to see fully fleshed out. Full pace maps, exotic tickets, and race-by-race breakdowns for Races 4–12 are live now for subscribers — check out TrackWiz premium and don't go to the window without them.

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