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Century Mile Picks & Predictions — August 21, 2026

August 21, 20268 racesAll Century Mile picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Century Mile — clear skies, 78°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward early speed all afternoon. Eight races are on the board, ranging from a 440-yard quarter-horse-style sprint to a route at 1 1/16 miles, and the mix of Stakes, Claiming, and Allowance conditions gives every type of bettor something to work with.

The card opens with a Stakes sprint and builds toward a pair of premium Stakes races mid-card before finishing with a meaty Allowance Optional Claiming and a Maiden Claiming route to close it out. With firm footing and favorable weather, expect pace to be honest and speed figures to hold up — this is a card where doing your homework pays off.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all 8 races. Three of them — Races 1, 2, and 3 — are unlocked and free for every reader. The remaining five are available to subscribers, including our best multi-race wager angles and exotic ticket breakdowns.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 AM EDT

Stakes · 440 yd · Dirt

A 440-yard stakes dash on the dirt that sets up as a clash between two Leech-trained runners and a well-rated field — but the TrackWiz numbers point to a clear top pick in what could be a fast, decisive outcome.

win3FiredML 5/2

Fired tops our ratings at 87.81 — the highest mark in the field — and goes postward at a workable 5/2 morning line. Trainer William H. Leech has two horses in here, which tells you he likes the spot, and Ricardo Moreno gets the call on the better-rated of the pair. In a 440-yard dash, gates and early burst are everything, and Fired's rating edge over the rest of the field is significant enough to warrant top billing.

place6Miss Fancy NancyML 7/2

Miss Fancy Nancy rates second-best in the field at 80.98 and checks in at 7/2 on the morning line, which is fair value for a horse with a 31% career win rate. Daniel Tavares rides for trainer Misael Moreno, and this filly profiles as a professional who can be counted on to hit the board even when she doesn't win. In a short field of six, her consistency makes her a strong place candidate.

show4Flight ClubML 4/1

Flight Club carries a 75.55 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 60% career win percentage — the best win rate in this entire field. The 4/1 morning line is reasonable, and the fact that trainer William H. Leech double-dips here with both Fired and Flight Club suggests confidence in both runners. As the second Leech horse, Flight Club could steal a piece of this if Fired gets into trouble at the break.

Race 2

12:45 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite doesn't have the best rating — our analysis flips the script and sides with a 6/1 shot who grades out on top.

win4HabadabadooML 6/1

Habadabadoo tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 despite being listed at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a notable gap between public perception and our model, and those are the spots we love. Trainer Monica Russell saddles this horse with Mauricio Malvaez up, and while a 6% career win rate is modest, the speed figure edge over the field is real. The average speed figures in this group are tightly clustered, so the rating separation Habadabadoo carries could be the difference in a short sprint.

place1Kikis Love of LifeML 9/5

Kikis Love of Life holds the second-highest rating in the field at 76.75 and drew the rail for jockey Antonio Ambrosio Reyes. The 9/5 morning-line favorite status is justified on ratings, but a 6% career win rate is a legitimate concern — boards are more likely than a win here. At 5½ furlongs of racing experience reflected in a 54 average speed figure, this horse should be competitive without necessarily closing the deal.

show2KnotenloserinML 6/5

Knotenloserin is the public's top choice at 6/5, but our model has her third at 45.96 — a meaningful gap from the top two. Rico Walcott rides for trainer Craig Robert Smith, and a 20% career win rate is solid. The 6/5 price will be short, but in a five-horse field, she's a logical show play for those structuring exactas or trifectas around the top two.

Race 3

1:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses are in a class of their own at the top of the ratings in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, making the top of the ticket fairly clear — but a longshot at 8/1 sneaks into our show spot and gives exotics some juice.

win3Saxon SagaML 6/5

Saxon Saga leads the field with an 87.98 TrackWiz rating and is also the morning-line favorite at 6/5, so the public agrees with our model here. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson sends out Dane Nelson, a jockey who knows this track well. A 26% career win rate is respectable, and with average speed figures matching the pace of this field, Saxon Saga looks like the horse to beat in a straightforward pace scenario.

place4SqualotoroML 3/1

Squalotoro sits just a tick behind at 87.08 — virtually dead-even with Saxon Saga on our ratings — and offers much better value at 3/1 on the morning line. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes climbs aboard for trainer Carson Frey, and while a 10% career win rate doesn't scream reliability, the raw rating here is elite. This horse could easily flip the result if the pace sets up differently, and the overlay price makes the place bet particularly attractive.

show2Kangaroo CoastML 8/1

Kangaroo Coast is our show pick and the value angle in this race, checking in at 8/1 on the morning line with a 47.77 rating. Trainer Colleen O'Hagan has Keimar Trotman up, and while the rating gap from the top two is real, in a five-horse field the board positions are attainable. An 11% career win rate on 53 average speed suggests a horse that competes without winning big, which is exactly the profile you want for an exacta saver or show play.

Our three free races today span a Stakes sprint, a 6-furlong Claimer, and a 5 1/2-furlong Claimer — and on a day where the dirt is playing fast and true, pace scenario is everything. Fired (Race 1, morning line 5/2, TrackWiz rating 87.81) draws the eye in the opening Stakes, while Saxon Saga (Race 3, 6/5 ML, rating 87.98) comes in as the highest-rated free pick on the card and figures to be heavily backed. But the name we're most excited about in the free races is Habadabadoo in Race 2 — a 6/1 morning line on a 6-furlong Claimer screams value, and our rating of 82.71 suggests the odds board may be sleeping on this one.

The through-line connecting these three races: all are on dirt, all are sprint distances, and all set up for horses with early pace or tactical speed on a surface that's rewarding horses who get good position out of the gate today. Dig into each free race preview for the full breakdown.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:45 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong stakes with an overwhelming odds-on favorite who's undefeated and posting the best speed figures in the field — the question isn't who wins, it's who can fill out your exotic tickets behind her.

win6CentellaML 1/5

Centella is an absolute standout here — a 100% career win rate, a 60 TrackWiz rating to lead the field, and a 55 average speed figure that bests every other runner in the race. Jose Mariano Asencio rides for trainer Milton Palma, and the 1/5 morning line reflects just how dominant this horse is expected to be. At that price you're not betting her to win for value, but she's the anchor of any exotic ticket in this spot.

place5BeyondthesunML 5/1

Beyondthesun is the most logical thing to use underneath Centella, carrying a 53.33 rating and a 50% career win rate that stands out in what is otherwise a thin field. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes rides for trainer James R. Brown, and the 5/1 morning line offers genuine place value. With a 54 average speed figure, this horse can sustain pace and should be fighting for second at the wire.

show2Tequila NightML 10/1

Tequila Night checks in at 10/1 on the morning line with a 45 rating — tied with Northlander but getting the nod here based on jockey Brian Boodramsingh, who's been active on this card. Trainer Mel Snow spots this horse in a stakes, and while there's no average speed figure in the data, the presence at this odds level makes Tequila Night a cheap show play worth including in trifectas. In a race dominated by a heavy favorite, the show spot is wide open.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A five-horse stakes sprint where the morning-line favorite holds the top rating, but the field is reasonably competitive and a handful of runners project similarly on pace — don't sleep on the value plays here.

win2Bakken TownML 4/5

Bakken Town leads this field with a 60 TrackWiz rating and is the clear morning-line favorite at 4/5. Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez gets the mount for trainer Tim Rycroft, and a 54 average speed figure matches the pace of the field leaders. The rating advantage here isn't massive, so this is less of a domination play and more of a solid top pick — Bakken Town wins this race by executing cleanly, not by overpowering the field.

place1Mexican LuckyML 3/1

Mexican Lucky rates second in the field at 56.67 and opens at 3/1, making this horse a natural place play behind the favorite. Trainer Mel Snow sends out Amadeo Perez, and while no average speed is available, the rating profile suggests a horse capable of finishing second in this company. If Bakken Town does anything unexpected early in the race, Mexican Lucky is positioned to take full advantage.

show5Let's Get RowdyML 4/1

Let's Get Rowdy checks in with a 55 rating and a 54 average speed figure, putting this horse right in the thick of the pace mix in a field where figures are tightly bunched. Brian Boodramsingh rides for Robert Van Overschot, and the 4/1 morning line is fair for a horse this competitive. In a short five-horse field, making the board is a reasonable expectation for a horse this close on ratings to the top two.

Race 6

2:45 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Tenth Street Don is a class standout in a 6½-furlong claiming race — the TrackWiz rating gap between him and the field is enormous, and even-money is the price you pay for that kind of separation.

win1Tenth Street DonML EVN

Tenth Street Don owns a 90 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any horse on the entire card today — and opens at even-money for trainer Jason Coney with Brian Boodramsingh aboard. A 55 average speed figure leads all runners in this field and backs up the numbers. Yes, an 11% career win rate looks modest, but ratings at this level in claiming company suggest a horse who's been running against tougher — this spot looks right for him.

place6Pump the BrakesML 3/1

Pump the Brakes is second-best in the field at 66.48 and draws a comfortable 3/1 morning line with Rico Walcott up for trainer Robert Henson. An 18% career win rate is the best among the horses chasing Tenth Street Don, and a 54 average speed figure keeps this horse in legitimate contention for a piece. The place position here is about finding the best of the rest, and Pump the Brakes fills that role cleanly.

show5SportscarrML 9/2

Sportscarr rates third in the field at 63.75 — just a hair behind Pump the Brakes — and opens at 9/2 with Desmond Bryan riding for Rod Heggie. A 12% career win rate and 54 average speed figure put this horse squarely in the mix for a board finish. If the two top-rated horses run as expected, Sportscarr makes a comfortable trifecta closer at a price that offers some return.

Race 7

3:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A 6½-furlong allowance optional claiming race with a fascinating ratings inversion — our top pick grades out ahead of the morning-line favorite, and the price difference makes for a genuinely compelling betting angle.

win4GimletML 2/1

Gimlet tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — a full three points clear of second-ranked Bound for Heaven — and opens at 2/1, offering real value over what the morning line implies. Trainer Dino K. Condilenios puts Kimal Santo in the irons, and a 37% career win rate is the best in the field by a meaningful margin. A 55 average speed figure also leads every runner in this race, giving Gimlet an edge in both raw class and pace.

place2Bound for HeavenML 4/5

Bound for Heaven is the morning-line favorite at 4/5 and holds an 85.36 TrackWiz rating — genuinely strong, just not quite as strong as Gimlet's. Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez rides for trainer Jason Coney, and a 31% career win rate backs up the public's confidence. This horse will likely be overlaid on the win but remains the most logical place insurance — a 4/5 shot that finishes second still pays.

show1Kardinal RoseML 4/1

Kardinal Rose carries a 73.12 rating and a 25% career win rate in an allowance optional claiming field, and the 4/1 morning line is fair value for a show play. Brian Boodramsingh pilots for trainer Jerri R. Robertson, and a 54 average speed figure keeps this horse pace-competitive. With two elite-rated horses expected to battle it out up front, Kardinal Rose could be the beneficiary if either encounters trouble, making her a smart exotic inclusion.

Race 8

3:45 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming route at 1 1/16 miles with a morning-line longshot who dominates the ratings — Blue Granite shapes up as a potential false 8/5 favorite surrounded by an otherwise evenly matched field.

win8Blue GraniteML 8/5

Blue Granite leads the maiden claiming field with a commanding 87.77 TrackWiz rating — a massive gap over the second-ranked Are Gee at 62.14. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes gets the mount for trainer Geovani Olalde, and a 53 average speed figure is among the best in this group. In maiden claiming at a route distance, that kind of rating separation doesn't come along often, and 8/5 is a fair price for a horse this dominant on paper.

place6Are GeeML 8/1

Are Gee holds the second-highest rating in the field at 62.14 and opens at an attractive 8/1 morning line with Cesar Vidaurri aboard for trainer Rick Hedge. The jump in distance to 1 1/16 miles is something to watch for all these maidens, but a 51 average speed figure puts Are Gee in the mix. At that price, the place payoff could be generous if Are Gee runs to her TrackWiz number — this is a legitimate value play.

show5Due CoarseML 3/1

Due Coarse rates third at 56.67 and is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 with Silvino Morales in the saddle for trainer Craig Robert Smith. A 53 average speed figure — matching Blue Granite — suggests this horse can sustain pace over the longer route distance. Due Coarse is the kind of solid, consistent maiden who finds the board without necessarily winning, making the show spot a reasonable expectation at a returning price.

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Bottom line for today at Century Mile: the conditions are ideal, the sprint distances dominate the card, and there's legitimate value hiding in the morning lines. Fired, Habadabadoo, and Saxon Saga are your free best bets — and Tenth Street Don leads a strong slate of premium picks capped by an intriguing pace scenario in the late Pick 4. Subscribers get it all. Head to /pricing to unlock the full card. Good luck out there — let's have a day.

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