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Century Mile Picks & Predictions — August 14, 2026

August 14, 20268 racesAll Century Mile picks

This card ran on August 14, 2026.

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Best bets at Century Mile, August 14, 2026

Race 14PonderosaML 7/28:15 PM EDT

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Happy Friday from Century Mile. We've got a crisp, partly cloudy afternoon in Edmonton — 66°F and comfortable — which means the dirt should be playing fair and fast. Eight races on the card today, all on the main track, mixing claiming action with a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming spots that should draw the better horses on the grounds.

The card leans heavily toward sprint distances, with six of eight races going six furlongs or less. That sets up a front-speed-friendly afternoon, and pace scenario is going to be everything today. The one-mile-plus route in Race 6 is worth watching as a change of pace — pun intended — and figures to attract a different kind of runner than the quick-twitch sprinters dominating the rest of the card.

Three races are free for everyone today, and we've got five premium breakdowns locked in for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open claiming sprint at seven furlongs where the TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story than the morning line — the number-one rated horse is sitting at 7/2 while the morning-line favorite carries the field's lowest rating.

win4PonderosaML 7/2

Ponderosa (4) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35 — a full 16 points clear of the second-ranked horse — and that kind of separation in a claiming field at this level is hard to ignore. The 7/2 morning line represents genuine value given how dominant that figure is. Jockey Rashaun Delane Tristan Griffith gets the call for trainer Gonzalo Anderson, and the seven-furlong distance should suit a horse that projects as a presser over this dirt strip.

place5Alberta BerbonML 5/1

Alberta Berbon (5) posts the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 70.27, and at 5/1 on the morning line there's plenty of value in the place pool. Jose Mariano Asencio is up for trainer Jerri R. Robertson, and matching an average speed figure of 54 with Now and Zen at the top of the field gives this one a realistic shot to hit the board in a race where the favorite's figures are underwhelming.

show1Now and ZenML 2/1

Now and Zen (1) carries the 2/1 morning-line chalk but a TrackWiz rating of only 66.04 — modest for a favorite — making a show ticket the prudent play rather than a win bet. The 11% career win rate isn't flashy, but Richard Henry takes the mount and the horse's average speed of 54 keeps it competitive. As a show hedge in exotics, Now and Zen's likely heavy tote action makes it a useful inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

8:45 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Stone Carver looks like a heavy-duty class standout in this Starter Optional Claiming sprint, but Tennessee Moses and a lightly-raced Our Pact could make the board interesting if the favorite gets pressured early.

win3Stone CarverML 6/5

Stone Carver (3) is the most clear-cut selection on the card today — a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 that leads this field by over 14 points, a career win rate of 28%, and the morning-line favoritism at 6/5 all point in the same direction. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson puts Dane Nelson aboard, a familiar and effective combination at Century Mile. In a Starter Optional Claiming format where eligibility can vary widely, Stone Carver's figures suggest he's simply operating at a higher level than most of this group.

place2Tennessee MosesML 9/2

Tennessee Moses (2) posts a 75.17 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and brings a 21% career win rate to a six-furlong trip that should play to his strengths. The 9/2 morning line offers real place value here, especially if Stone Carver draws the majority of the tote money. Trainer William H. Leech sends him out with Alexander Marti, and the matching average speed of 54 keeps him in the same conversation as the top two.

show6Our PactML 6/1

Our Pact (6) is the most intriguing show play in this race — that average speed of 56 is the highest in the field, a full two ticks above the cluster sitting at 54. Trainer Jim Depew also has a second runner in here with Imperial Hornet, and when a barn doubles up, it's worth noting which horse has the better figures. Our Pact at 6/1 with that top speed number makes for a smart exotic inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free races today cover a nice cross-section of the card — a claiming sprint to kick things off in Race 1, the Starter Optional Claiming in Race 2, and the maiden sprint in Race 3. Ponderosa opens the day at a juicy 7/2 morning line in that first claiming race, and our model likes that price. Over in Race 2, Stone Carver comes in as the heavy favorite at 6/5 with the highest TrackWiz rating of the free races (89.71) — that's a horse worth keying in your early multi-race tickets. The MSW sprint in Race 3 introduces Bakken Town at odds-on, which tells you the morning-line maker is confident, even if maiden races always carry a little extra mystery.

With a sprint-heavy card on a cool, dry afternoon, watch for horses that can get position early without burning too much energy. The pace scenario in these shorter races could compress quickly, and closers may find it tough if the speed holds on. Our free picks factor in those pace dynamics — don't leave them on the table.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

9:15 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight sprints over five furlongs are among the toughest races to handicap, but Bakken Town enters with a meaningful experience edge over first-time starters — in a field of eight, that could be all the edge you need.

win4Bakken TownML 4/5

Bakken Town (4) is the lone horse in this MSW field to show any recorded average speed figure — 54 — which tells us he's already had a race under his belt while most of these rivals are debuting. That experience edge is significant in maiden sprints, and his TrackWiz rating of 60 leads the field. Trainer Tim Rycroft also saddles Whiskey Moon, giving the barn two bites at the apple, and Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez takes the mount on the barn's top choice. The 4/5 morning line is short, but the data backs the price.

place8Sauce Me a SliceML 5/1

Sauce Me a Slice (8) posts a TrackWiz rating of 53.33 — third best in the field — and at 5/1 on the morning line, trainer Makayla Edwards and jockey Brian Boodramsingh give this maiden a legitimate place profile. Without a recorded speed figure, there's uncertainty, but the rating edges out most of the field and the barn has shown a knack for placing horses at Century Mile.

show1Whiskey MoonML 6/1

Whiskey Moon (1) is the second horse from the Tim Rycroft barn in this race, and trainers rarely double up in a maiden race without both horses being live. The 51.67 TrackWiz rating ranks fourth in the field, and the 6/1 morning line provides value for exotic players looking for a third wheel. Jose Mariano Asencio picks up the mount, and in a field where most runners are first-timers, barn confidence matters.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

9:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The Allowance Optional Claiming label adds a layer of eligibility complexity to this six-furlong dirt dash, but Inxpress enters as a clear TrackWiz top choice and figures to be a heavy favorite despite the even-money morning line.

win1InxpressML EVN

Inxpress (1) leads this field with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the top mark on today's entire card — and the even-money morning line reflects the confidence of the market. Trainer Tom Rycroft puts Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez in the irons, and with a 15% career win rate in what projects as an elevated pace scenario, the horse's consistency is what stands out. At even money this is not a value play, but in allowance-level company over six furlongs, the figures justify the favoritism.

place2SpeightsoulcometML 4/1

Speightsoulcomet (2) brings the second-highest rating in the field at 81.58 and a career win rate of 27% — suggesting this horse has been around winners and knows how to compete. Amadeo Perez takes the mount for trainer Craig Robert Smith, and the 4/1 morning line looks like a fair price for a place ticket given the strong underlying numbers. If Inxpress draws heavy betting action, the place pool on Speightsoulcomet could be generous.

show6SailingforthestarsML 9/2

Sailingforthestars (6) rates third in the field at 72.75 and carries a 25% career win rate, making it one of the more reliable board-hitters in this group. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes gets the call for trainer Pat Jarvis, and the 9/2 morning line makes the show ticket excellent value. With two clearly superior horses above it in the ratings, the show spot feels like the right level of expectation here.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

10:15 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A fascinating ratings inversion headlines this seven-furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race — the morning-line favorite Scuffle at 7/5 carries the third-lowest TrackWiz rating in the field, while Bakk N Beautiful at 2/1 leads by a massive margin.

win5Bakk N BeautifulML 2/1

Bakk N Beautiful (5) is today's single most compelling win bet — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that towers nearly 30 points above the morning-line favorite Scuffle, yet sitting at only 2/1 on the morning line. Trainer Makayla Edwards sends out Amadeo Perez, and with an average speed of 54 — the best in the field — over a seven-furlong distance that rewards sustained speed, the profile is about as clean as it gets. The public might be drawn to Scuffle's short price, but the data strongly favors this runner.

place4Dura's HawkeyeML 12/1

Dura's Hawkeye (4) is the designated longshot angle in the place spot — a 12/1 morning line with a 58.72 TrackWiz rating that actually leads the bottom half of this field. A 33% career win rate is eye-catching for a horse at this price, and trainer David Nicholson also saddles morning-line favorite Scuffle, giving the barn dual representation. If Bakk N Beautiful gets the win, Dura's Hawkeye looks like live value for the place and exotic payouts.

show2Ride At DawnML 4/1

Ride At Dawn (2) brings something that stands out immediately — a 50% career win rate, which is extraordinary at any level of the sport. The 55.0 TrackWiz rating is modest, but horses with that kind of win percentage know how to find the wire. At 4/1 on the morning line with Brian Boodramsingh aboard for trainer Robert Van Overschot, the show spot feels like a reasonable floor for a horse that competes this often.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

10:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Seven horses stretch out to a mile and 70 yards in this claiming route, and the ratings split into two clear tiers — three horses rated above 76 and four below 44, meaning pace and stamina will separate the contenders from the pretenders.

win7Max BoosterML 7/2

Max Booster (7) leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and gets the call from Amadeo Perez — one of the busier jockeys on this card — for trainer Gonzalo Anderson. The 7/2 morning line is fair value for a top-rated horse in a route where stamina questions can expose lower-rated rivals. An average speed of 52 is consistent with the contending cluster and the route distance at a mile and 70 yards should help sort out those with real staying power.

place1Sky MusicML 3/1

Sky Music (1) posts an 82.53 TrackWiz rating — second only to Max Booster — and a 16% career win rate that's respectable in claiming company. Trainer Craig Robert Smith puts Richard Lunan aboard, and the 3/1 morning line means this horse will likely go off as the public's top pick despite trailing in the ratings. In a route race where pace can be contentious, Sky Music's figure makes a place ticket very sensible.

show6Writ in StoneML 4/1

Writ in Stone (6) checks in with a 76.07 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and a 17% career win rate with an average speed of 53. Trainer Tim Rycroft's runners have shown up consistently today, and Jose Mariano Asencio takes the mount in what looks like a cozy three-way battle at the top of the ratings. The 4/1 morning line offers show value, and in a seven-horse field with a clear bottom tier, the top three rated horses are strong exotic plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

11:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

El Bonita Cara enters this six-furlong claiming sprint as the top-rated horse, but Stay Risque and Jackpot Bar are nearly identical in the ratings and both figure to push the pace — making this a race where the outcome could hinge on who weathers the early pressure.

win6El Bonita CaraML 7/2

El Bonita Cara (6) owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and a career win rate of 33% — the highest among the main contenders — putting a strong combined profile on the table at a 7/2 morning line. Trainer Jason Coney sends out Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez, and with an average speed of 53 matching the pace of the contending group, this horse should be right in the mix throughout the six furlongs. The value angle is real: 33% career wins at 7/2 is a line worth exploiting.

place1Stay RisqueML 5/1

Stay Risque (1) rates 79.13 — second in the field — and brings a 20% career win rate with Kyle Carter aboard for trainer Marvin Buffalo. The 5/1 morning line feels a touch generous for a horse this well-positioned in the ratings, and that price discrepancy makes the place ticket particularly attractive. If El Bonita Cara draws heavy wagering, Stay Risque's place pool value could be significant.

show4Jackpot BarML 6/1

Jackpot Bar (4) is only a whisker behind Stay Risque at 79.10 TrackWiz rating — essentially a dead heat in the numbers — and a 22% career win rate for trainer Carson Frey suggests consistent competitiveness. Keihton Natera takes the mount, and the 6/1 morning line is excellent value for a show ticket on the third-best rated horse in the field. When three horses are this closely clustered in the ratings, the show spot often produces meaningful payouts.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

11:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

February steps into this five-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint as a heavy favorite by the numbers, but La Patrona's elite career win rate and Thrill of the Nite's pace credentials could complicate things in a full eight-horse field.

win6FebruaryML 2/1

February (6) posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — comfortably the best in this field — and the 2/1 morning line suggests the market agrees. Trainer Dino K. Condilenios sends out Kimal Santo, and with a 20% career win rate and an average speed of 53 in a sprint distance that should suit a front-runner profile, the fundamentals stack up cleanly. In a claiming field with this kind of ratings separation, taking the favorite is justified by the data.

place4Light Fast FeetML 4/1

Light Fast Feet (4) rates 76.44 — second in the field — and brings the highest average speed figure among the contenders at 54, a number that pops off the page in a five-and-a-half furlong dash. N'Rico Prescod rides for Ron Grieves, and a 17% career win rate keeps the horse honest without overpromising. At 4/1 on the morning line, the place ticket on a confirmed speed horse is a straightforward call.

show5Thrill of the NiteML 5/2

Thrill of the Nite (5) catches the eye with a 33% career win rate — tied for the second-highest in the field among active runners — and a TrackWiz rating of 63.02 that slots in third. Trainer Seymour Biggs uses Linton Leon Steadman in the irons, and the 5/2 morning line reflects public confidence even if the rating sits below the top two. As a show play or exacta wheel underneath February, Thrill of the Nite's win rate makes it a reliable board-hitter.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Bottom line: Century Mile is serving up a fast, fun eight-race card on a beautiful Friday afternoon. Stone Carver is our standout free play, Ponderosa offers live value at 7/2 to start the day, and premium members have a loaded card of pace projections and exotic ticket breakdowns waiting for them. Good luck at the windows — and as always, bet smart.

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