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Century Downs Picks & Predictions — October 17, 2026

October 17, 20269 racesAll Century Downs picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Century Downs — clear skies, 62°F, and a firm dirt surface that should play honest all day. Nine races are on the card, and this looks like a fun one top to bottom, mixing quarter-horse speed in the opener with a pair of stakes contests and a handful of competitive claiming battles.

Conditions this good tend to favor horses with consistent speed figures (think of those as standardized performance scores) since nothing funky is happening underfoot. No mud excuses, no wind-aided times — just clean, straightforward racing. That makes it a great day to lean on the TrackWiz ratings and let the numbers do the work.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader, and they happen to include some of the most interesting horses on the card — so let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:45 PM EDT

Stakes · 400 yd · Dirt

The morning-line favorite gets outrated by our top pick in this 400-yard stakes dash — a blink-and-you'll-miss-it sprint where our ratings tell a very different story than the oddsmakers.

win1FiredML 3/1

Fired draws the rail in a race where our TrackWiz rating of 87.08 towers over the field — that's a meaningful edge in a five-horse sprint where every tenth of a second counts. Saddled by William H. Leech and piloted by Alexander Marti, this horse also carries a 31% career win rate, which is elite for any level. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here against a favorite (O Seeyalater) who our model rates a full 10 points lower. In a 400-yard dash, the horse that breaks cleanest and rates highest usually finds the winner's circle — Fired checks both boxes.

place3Jess the TrainML 8/1

Jess the Train is an interesting overlay at 8/1 on the morning line, backed by a TrackWiz rating of 79.29 that slots comfortably into the top three in this field. Trained by Buckey A. Stockwell — who also saddles second entry First Famous Prize — having two runners in the gate can sometimes create tactical advantages. With a 27% career win rate, this horse has won its share of races and deserves respect in the exacta underneath.

show4O SeeyalaterML 4/5

O Seeyalater is the public's pick at 4/5, but our model rates this horse third at 77.00, suggesting the crowd may be overestimating the chance here. That said, trainer Wesley T. Oulton has two horses in this race, and a 24% career win rate means O Seeyalater is hardly a pushover. At odds-on, the win bet is poor value, but this horse absolutely belongs in your trifecta construction as a solid show option.

Race 2

8:13 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A four-horse stakes at 6½ furlongs that sets up as a two-horse show on paper — but there's a 20/1 shot lurking that our model thinks is worth a second look in the exotics.

win3Lil Miss AddyML 6/5

Lil Miss Addy tops our TrackWiz ratings at 89.71 and comes in at a reasonable 6/5 on the morning line, making her a near-even-money play with genuine model support rather than just public hype. Trained by Gonzalo Anderson and piloted by Antonio Whitehall, this mare carries a solid 25% career win rate and has posted an average speed figure of 52. The key here is that she outrates the morning-line favorite Lutedidit by over 14 points — in a short field, that gap is significant. She's the most reliable win bet on the card in the early races.

place4LutediditML 3/5

Lutedidit is the public's top choice at 3/5 and holds a 75.60 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — with an average speed figure of 53, actually the best in this race. Trainer Deanna Walper has this horse ready to fire, and a 22% career win rate keeps her honest. If Lil Miss Addy hits any traffic or breaks slow, Lutedidit has the tactical speed to make it a two-horse photo.

show1Tiza Supreme QueenML 20/1

Tiza Supreme Queen at 20/1 is a massive longshot with a modest rating of 28.33 and no wins on record, but in a four-horse field, you only need to beat one rival to hit the show spot. Ron Grieves sends her out here, and at those odds, she's a cheap insurance ticket in any trifecta. In a small field where anything can happen in the early fractions, keeping her onside for a few dollars makes exotic sense.

Race 3

8:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Border Song comes in as the even-money choice and our top-rated horse, but a competitive pace scenario and a 28% career winner with legit speed figures sets this claiming race up with genuine depth.

win3Border SongML EVN

Border Song earns our highest rating in this race at 90.00 flat and is the even-money morning-line choice — rare that the public and our model agree so closely, which gives us added confidence here. Trainer Tom Rycroft also has Pisco in the race, giving him two shots at the purse. Ridden by Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez, Border Song's 28% career win rate is comfortably the best in this six-horse field. At 7½ furlongs on dirt, this is a distance that rewards sustained speed, and Border Song's rating profile suggests that's exactly what this horse brings.

place1PiscoML 7/2

Pisco sits second in our ratings at 72.09, which is a healthy gap over the rest of the field after the top two. Jose Mariano Asencio gets the ride for trainer Tom Rycroft, meaning the barn holds both the top-rated horses — a useful training angle when a barn clearly has its horses cranked up. The 7/2 morning line represents fair value for a horse that should be running at or near the top of the stretch.

show5A Man's ManML 8/1

A Man's Man is the show value in this spot, rated 42.47 by TrackWiz but carrying a 24% career win rate — the second-best winning percentage in the field behind Border Song. Joan Petrowski's runner exits at 8/1 on the morning line with Amadeo Perez in the irons, and at those odds, this horse provides excellent trifecta coverage at minimal cost. The win rate suggests a horse that knows how to compete, even if the overall rating lags behind the top two.

Our three free races today span the card nicely: Race 1 kicks things off over 400 yards of pure quarter-horse sprint, where Fired (3/1 morning line, 87.08 TrackWiz rating) looks like a sharp value play against the field. Then Race 2 steps up to 6½ furlongs of stakes action, and Lil Miss Addy (6/5 ML, 89.71 rating) comes in as the highest-rated horse in the free portion of the card — that kind of separation from the field on a dry, fast dirt surface is hard to ignore. Race 3 brings a claiming mile-and-change at 7½ furlongs where Border Song goes off at even money with a flat 90.00 rating — the top mark of any horse in today's free analysis.

One through-line connecting these three picks: on a clear, dry day at a track with no pace bias thrown in by weather, all three of these horses project well in a straightforward speed-figure comparison. No surface excuses in play, no wet-track wildcards. If Border Song fires her best, she's tough to beat at any price.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:09 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Wide-open maiden optional claiming over six furlongs with an interesting split between our top-rated horse and the morning-line favorite — value hunters will want to pay attention here.

win1Golden GooseML 5/2

Golden Goose earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81 and carries a 5/2 morning line, making this a best bet with legitimate model backing and fair odds to boot. Brian Boodramsingh gets the assignment for trainer Tom Rycroft, and an average speed figure of 53 matches up well with this maiden field. Importantly, in a race where every horse in the field carries a 0% career win rate, the rating gap between Golden Goose (87.81) and the next-best horse, Dauntless Daryl (71.29), is substantial. When maidens haven't broken their maiden, the model's composite score becomes one of the most reliable separators.

place5Dauntless DarylML 9/2

Dauntless Daryl rates second in the field at 71.29 and slots in at 9/2 on the morning line — a fair price for the second-best-rated horse. Ron Grieves sends this one out with N'Rico Prescod in the saddle, and an average speed figure of 52 keeps Dauntless Daryl competitive in the pace scenario. In a maiden race, the horse with the second-best rating and a workable morning line is exactly the type you want underneath in exactas.

show6Raise MoneyML 2/1

Raise Money is the morning-line second choice at 2/1 with a 61.63 TrackWiz rating, trained by Carson Frey and ridden by Amadeo Perez. The public clearly likes this one more than our model does, but in a wide-open maiden field, being third in our ratings still means show-position viability. Using Raise Money in trifectas as a show finisher makes sense, particularly since the 2/1 morning line means the win pool might be overloaded in the horse's direction anyway.

Race 5

9:37 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Little Did We Know looks like a class standout in this stakes at 6½ furlongs, carrying our top rating despite the second-highest morning line — that disconnect between our model and the oddsmakers is worth exploring.

win3Little Did We KnowML 2/1

Little Did We Know tops the TrackWiz ratings in this five-horse field at 88.54 and goes postward at 2/1, which is fair value when you consider our model has this horse running away from the competition. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson has had success at this level, and jockey Antonio Whitehall gets the call. The horse's average speed figure of 53 is tied for best in the field, and an 11% career win rate, while modest, doesn't tell the full story — this is a horse that rates dramatically better than its win percentage suggests, meaning the form could be ready to turn.

place4Incredible BuddyML 9/2

Incredible Buddy sits third in our ratings at 60.75 but comes in at 9/2 on the morning line, offering a touch of overlay value relative to the morning-line favorite Kamal. Trainer Jerri R. Robertson sends this one out with Mauricio Malvaez aboard, and the 53 average speed figure matches the top horses in the field. A 10% career win rate means this horse hasn't broken through often, but the speed figure and rating suggest a horse capable of a strong placing effort.

show5Big Bad BizookeML 3/1

Big Bad Bizooke draws attention at 3/1 on the morning line but carries a 0% career win rate — a horse that's been competitive without winning. Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez rides for trainer Tim Rycroft, and the 59.34 rating is close enough to the middle of this field to warrant trifecta inclusion. At 3/1, the show price may not be exceptional, but in a five-horse stakes, you're only needing to beat two rivals to land in the exotics.

Race 6

10:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A seven-horse claiming mile-and-a-sixteenth where two horses — Kangaroo Coast and St. Elmo — separate clearly from the pack on our ratings, setting up a potential pace duel between a pair of very well-matched competitors.

win6Kangaroo CoastML 2/1

Kangaroo Coast tops our TrackWiz ratings in this field at 88.54, tied for the highest mark across all nine races today, and comes in at a very fair 2/1 on the morning line. Trainer Colleen O'Hagan sends this one out with Keimar Trotman aboard, and the 16% career win rate combined with an average speed figure of 53 positions this horse well for a 1 1/16-mile test on dirt. At 2/1 in a seven-horse field, this is one of the cleaner win bets of the night — our model is emphatic about the separation from the rest of the field.

place5St. ElmoML 5/2

St. Elmo rates second at 82.47 and carries a 5/2 morning line for trainer Mark Cloutier, with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes taking the mount. The 17% career win rate and 53 average speed figure tell the story of a horse that competes consistently at this level and figures to be running at the top of the stretch at a mile and a sixteenth. The distance is a key factor here — horses that can sustain a strong pace over longer trips often find the exacta positions.

show7TrapezeML 3/1

Trapeze rates third in the field at 65.25, sitting 17 points behind St. Elmo — the gap is real, but in a seven-horse claimer, there's room for chaos. Amadeo Perez gets the mount for trainer Jerri R. Robertson, and a 14% career win rate with an average speed of 53 means this horse can mix it up early. At 3/1 on the morning line, the show value is decent, and Trapeze makes sense as the third leg of any trifecta combination.

Race 7

10:33 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Concrete Cowboy is our clear top-rated horse in this starter allowance, but at 2/1 in an eight-horse field, the real intrigue is whether Frostedbird or a longshot can sneak into the exotics.

win7Concrete CowboyML 2/1

Concrete Cowboy is our TrackWiz top pick at 88.54 — a rating that matches the field-best marks seen in the claiming ranks today — and goes at 2/1 on the morning line for trainer Pat Jarvis. Kimal Santo gets the mount, and the combination of an 18% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 — the best in this race — tells the story of a horse that has the raw ability to dominate here. In a starter allowance, where horses must have previously entered for a claiming price, the pace often sets up for closer-types, and Concrete Cowboy's speed figure suggests this horse can dictate terms or press from just off the pace.

place4FrostedbirdML 3/1

Frostedbird rates at 59.23 for trainer Gonzalo Anderson and jockey Antonio Whitehall — the same trainer-jockey duo that we're backing in Race 5 tonight, which speaks to their form at Century Downs. An 18% career win rate with an average speed figure of 53 makes Frostedbird a legitimate place contender who can save ground and run a strong second if Concrete Cowboy pulls away late. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and this horse is the logical exacta partner to our win selection.

show1Barberry BanditML 8/1

Barberry Bandit is a value play at 8/1 with a 54.51 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure, meaning this horse has the raw pace to get involved early in the 6½-furlong dash. Trainer Pat Jarvis — who also saddles Concrete Cowboy — has two arrows in his quiver tonight, and an 8% career win rate doesn't tell the full story for a horse rated comfortably above several stablemates. In trifectas, using an 8/1 longshot trained by the same barn as your win pick is an angle worth a small investment.

Race 8

11:01 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Nine horses going 6½ furlongs in a claiming race with four horses rated in the high 70s to low 80s — this is a genuinely competitive field where the margins between win, place, and show could be razor thin.

win5Mr MiezieML 5/2

Mr Miezie gets our TrackWiz win nod with a rating of 81.50 and a 5/2 morning line for trainer Tim Rycroft, with Cesar Vidaurri in the saddle. A 15% career win rate paired with an average speed figure of 54 — tied for best in the race — gives this horse the speed profile to be dangerous on the front end at 6½ furlongs. With four horses bunched closely in the ratings, Mr Miezie's edge in average speed figures is what separates the selection from the pack in our analysis.

place4Man At the PulpitML 8/1

Man At the Pulpit is an intriguing play at 8/1 on the morning line despite carrying a strong 79.79 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate — the best in this field. Trainer Tom Rycroft sends Brian Boodramsingh out on a horse that, by winning percentage alone, should be favored, and an average speed figure of 53 means this horse is fully competitive. The 8/1 morning line may reflect an unpublicized form concern, but the underlying numbers scream value in the place pool.

show2Call the CavalryML 7/2

Call the Cavalry rates 78.85 in our model for trainer Craig Robert Smith, with Kimal Santo up at a fair 7/2 morning line. The 54 average speed figure matches Mr Miezie for best in the race, and a 15% career win rate means this horse knows how to compete at this level. With a tightly bunched group of horses in the 78-82 rating range, Call the Cavalry is the logical third ticket in any exacta or trifecta structure tonight.

Race 9

11:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Just Scarlett looks like the class of a wide-open ten-horse claiming field at six furlongs, but with a 30% career winner sitting at 6/1 in B B Beth, the exotics in the nightcap could pay very well.

win7Just ScarlettML 2/1

Just Scarlett carries our top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 and goes as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 — this is one of the rare cases where the public and our model are aligned, and rightfully so. Amadeo Perez gets the mount for trainer Erick Gutierrez, and a 20% career win rate with an average speed figure of 53 makes this a well-rounded profile. In a ten-horse claiming field at six furlongs, you want the horse that consistently runs the top figures, and Just Scarlett delivers exactly that.

place2Light Fast FeetML 7/2

Light Fast Feet rates second in the field at 77.35 and goes at a fair 7/2 morning line for trainer Ron Grieves, with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes aboard. A 16% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 keep this horse competitive in a big field, and the rating gap between Light Fast Feet and the third-ranked horse is meaningful. In a ten-horse field, finding a horse rated more than 19 points clear of the rest of the chase pack is exactly the type of place bet you want to anchor exactas with.

show5B B BethML 6/1

B B Beth is the show value play of the nightcap — a 30% career win rate is the best in the entire field by a wide margin, and Tom Rycroft is one of the night's most active trainers with multiple runners. Jose Mariano Asencio takes the ride at 6/1, and a 58.06 TrackWiz rating, while not elite, reflects a horse that has won consistently throughout its career. At 6/1, B B Beth is a legitimate trifecta wheel anchor who has proven time and again that it knows how to reach the finish line first.

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Bottom line: Century Downs serves up a clean, fast dirt card on a picture-perfect October afternoon. Border Song is our top-rated free pick at a 90.00 and looks like the most confident play of the day. Lil Miss Addy brings stakes-class speed at 89.71, and Fired offers 3/1 value to open the card. For pace breakdowns, exotic tickets, and all six premium races, subscribe to TrackWiz — good luck out there today.

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