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Century Downs Picks & Predictions — September 26, 2026

September 26, 20269 racesAll Century Downs picks

Century Downs sends out a nine-race Saturday card under cloudy skies, with temperatures sitting at a crisp 51°F. That kind of cool, overcast weather tends to keep the track surface consistent throughout the afternoon — no baking sun to dry out the strip, no surprise moisture creeping in. For dirt specialists, conditions like these can be a genuine equalizer.

The card runs the full spectrum today: a pair of maiden claiming sprints to kick things off, some competitive claiming action in the middle races, and a stretch-testing allowance optional claiming route to close it out. Nine races, plenty of angles, and at least a few spots where TrackWiz analysis sees real value hiding beneath the morning line.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this 1 1/16-mile dirt claimer, but the supporting cast is tight enough to make exotics interesting — the real battle is for the minor spots.

win6Border SongML 5/2

Border Song is the horse to beat here, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 that towers over the field — the next-closest competitor checks in at 74.36. A 25% career win rate speaks to a consistent performer who knows how to finish, and the 5/2 morning line actually offers some value given the rating gap. At 1 1/16 miles on dirt, this looks like a set-up race for a horse with clear class over this group.

place1Cousin RichieML 7/2

Cousin Richie sits second on our ratings at 74.36 and brings a 17% career win rate to the table — reliable, if not flashy. The 7/2 morning line makes him a solid place play in a race where the top spot looks spoken for. He's close enough on speed (avg 52) to the field that a clean trip should get him a piece of the purse.

show2Smart LadML 3/1

Smart Lad shares the field's best average speed figure at 53 alongside Border Song, which is worth noting in a race where most horses are clustered at 52. A 17% career win rate and a 3/1 morning line make him a legitimate show contender and a worthwhile piece in exacta and trifecta tickets with the top two picks.

Race 2

8:15 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A dominant top pick faces a legitimate second-tier cluster in this 7 1/2-furlong allowance — the intrigue is whether the morning-line favorite Diocles can outrun his rating and upset the order.

win2Lord of BattleML 5/2

Lord of Battle is the standout in this field by just about every measure. A career win rate of 44% is exceptional — nearly half his starts end in a win — and his TrackWiz rating of 87.81 leads the field by a wide margin. He's drawn the 2 post with Antonio Whitehall aboard, giving him a clean stalking position in a 7 1/2-furlong dirt race. The 5/2 morning line is fair for a horse this accomplished.

place6Rainbow's PrideML 9/2

Rainbow's Pride rates second in the field at 78.15 and puts up a solid avg speed of 54 — the second-best in the race behind only Rondelito. A 25% career win rate with Richard Balgobin up makes this a live place contender, especially if Lord of Battle dominates up front and Rainbow's Pride can close into a clear second. The 9/2 morning line offers some value for a horse this capable.

show3DioclesML 2/1

Diocles opens as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 despite ranking third on our ratings at 66.79, which tells you something about how the betting public views this field. His 32% career win rate is legitimate, and Kimal Santo is a capable pilot. He's worth including in trifectas as a show piece, particularly if the pace scenario sets up for a horse coming from just off the speed.

Race 3

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 3 1/2 fur · Dirt

An unpredictable maiden claiming sprint at 3 1/2 furlongs — several first-time starters with no speed figures on record make this a wide-open affair where pace and post position loom large.

win2All She WroteML 3/1

All She Wrote tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 56.67, edging out rivals in a race where separation is hard to find. Kemar Richard Chase has the call, and trainer David Nicholson has her prepped to run. Without career wins to draw on — this is a maiden field — the ratings model becomes the most reliable guide, and All She Wrote leads it at a workable 3/1 morning line.

place1Siempre SonandoML 9/2

Siempre Sonando rates just behind the top pick at 54.17, making her an excellent complement on place tickets. Trainer Rick Hedge sends her out with Shamaree Muir up, and the 9/2 morning line gives some value if she can run to her model projection. In a sprint this short, getting away well from the gate can be everything — the inside post (1) could be an advantage.

show3Let's GoML 5/2

Let's Go is the 5/2 morning-line second choice and the only horse in the top three picks with a recorded average speed of 52 — a meaningful data point in a field where most runners lack published figures. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson is a familiar name in the condition book, and Richard Balgobin brings experience to a green field. She's a logical show play and deserves spot in trifecta coverage.

We're opening the curtain on three free races today, and they cover a nice range of conditions. Border Song tops our ratings in the opening claiming route at 1 1/16 miles — a distance that should sort out the field in a hurry. Over in Race 2, Lord of Battle matches that same TrackWiz rating in an allowance sprint at 7½ furlongs, which sets up as one of the cleaner betting opportunities on the card. Race 3 introduces the maiden claiming crowd over a short 3½-furlong dash, where All She Wrote gets our nod despite a softer rating — maiden sprints at this distance can be chaotic, so manage expectations accordingly.

The connecting thread across these three free races is pace. Short fields on a cool, firm-tracking dirt surface tend to reward horses that can establish position early without burning up in the first quarter. Keep that bias in mind as you handicap.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 3 1/2 fur · Dirt

Max Charisma's rating creates a significant gap at the top of this maiden field, but without established speed figures across most of the group, anything can happen in a 3 1/2-furlong sprint.

win3Max CharismaML 5/1

Max Charisma is the clear top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — a number that stands well above every other entrant in this maiden claiming field. Trainer Dino K. Condilenios sends him out with Kimal Santo aboard, and the 5/1 morning line is interesting given the model's confidence in this horse. If he brings that rating to the track, this maiden ranks could be too short for him.

place8FivenofieldfiveML 3/1

Fivenofieldfive carries the second-best rating in the field at 56.67 and draws the morning-line second choice at 3/1. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes gets the mount for trainer James R. Brown, and with most horses in this field lacking any published speed figures, a horse with some identifiable form stands out. He's the logical place play behind the top pick.

show1Sauce Me a SliceML 9/2

Sauce Me a Slice has one concrete data point that many rivals lack — a recorded average speed of 53, which is the best among horses with any speed figure in this field. She opens at 9/2 for trainer Makayla Edwards with Brian Boodramsingh up. In a short sprint of maiden runners, having any known form is an edge, and she's worth the show spot in exotics.

Race 5

10:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Above Average enters this 7 1/2-furlong dirt claimer with a rating that towers over the field — the question isn't whether he's best, but whether the 2/1 morning line leaves enough meat on the bone for exotic plays.

win7Above AverageML 2/1

Above Average checks every box here — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 leads the field by more than 10 points, and his average speed of 55 is the class of the field. Amadeo Perez climbs aboard for trainer Mark Cloutier, a sharp combination. Even at 2/1, the rating dominance makes him a confident top selection — horses that grade this far above their competition at a claiming level win at a high clip.

place3LicoriceML 6/1

Licorice rates second in this field at 78.12, a strong number in a claiming context, and opens at an attractive 6/1 morning line. Trainer James R. Brown sends her out with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes, and a 12% career win rate understates what the speed model sees in her current form. The value here is real — if Above Average is taken for granted at short odds, Licorice is the play to build around in exactas.

show4Rose of TexasML 6/1

Rose of Texas rates third in the field at 75.62 and carries an 18% career win rate that reflects consistent competitiveness. Brian Boodramsingh is a strong rider, and trainer Jason Coney has this filly ready to perform. She matches Loveaboveandbeyond on average speed (53) but rates considerably higher, making the 6/1 opening price a legitimate show value and a solid trifecta anchor.

Race 6

10:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Just Scarlett sits clear atop the ratings in this 6 1/2-furlong dirt claimer, but the 4/1 morning line hints the public hasn't fully caught up — there's value at the top while it lasts.

win6Just ScarlettML 4/1

Just Scarlett is the TrackWiz top pick with a rating of 85.62 — the highest in this field by a comfortable margin. A 21% career win rate is solid at the claiming level, and Amadeo Perez is one of the sharper sticks in the jockey colony. Trainer Erick Gutierrez has her pointed here, and the 4/1 morning line represents genuine overlay potential given what the ratings say about her standing in this field.

place1Light Fast FeetML 6/1

Light Fast Feet rates second in the field at 72.98 — a meaningful gap behind the top pick, but well clear of the third tier. Her average speed of 54 is the best in the race alongside Just Scarlett's implication of class, and a 16% career win rate is workable in this company. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes gets the mount for trainer Ron Grieves, and the 6/1 price makes her a strong place play with real exacta upside.

show4Betty JoML 8/1

Betty Jo opens at 8/1 under Keihton Natera for trainer Anderson Ward, which makes her the value piece in the show spot. A 14% career win rate and a 56.08 rating put her solidly in contention for a piece, and her average speed of 53 keeps pace with the mid-field group. She's worth stacking into trifectas as a live show horse at a price that more than compensates for the uncertainty.

Race 7

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Jump the Queue brings a massive rating edge into a nine-horse sprint field — but pace could be a factor over six furlongs, and the supporting cast has enough quality to keep things honest.

win5Jump the QueueML 3/1

Jump the Queue rates 87.08 on the TrackWiz model — a dominant number in this nine-horse claiming field — and Tom Rycroft is a trainer worth following in this condition. Brian Boodramsingh is a capable rider who knows how to get a horse home. A 21% career win rate is respectable, and the 3/1 morning line is fair value for the clear top-rated horse going six furlongs on dirt.

place9Late Night LivingML 4/1

Late Night Living is a fascinating place play at 4/1 — she rates second in the field at 66.12 and posts a solid average speed of 54, matching the top speed horses in the race. Trainer Geovani Olalde has Amadeo Perez in the irons, a reliable combination. The gap between her and the top pick is notable, but she's clearly best of the rest and a strong place ticket component.

show4LongneckML 5/1

Longneck brings the best career win rate among the show-contender tier at 28%, a number that reflects a horse who competes hard and knows how to hit the board. His average speed of 54 ties for the best in the field, and the 5/1 morning line with Mauricio Malvaez up gives him underdog appeal. He's the logical third piece in trifecta tickets and a credible show play.

Race 8

11:30 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse starter allowance going six furlongs brings significant depth — Tool Time's ratings edge over a competitive top tier makes this one of the more compelling races on the card.

win10Tool TimeML 9/2

Tool Time leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 and backs it up with an average speed of 55 — tied for the best in the field. A 30% career win rate is excellent and signals a horse that consistently turns his talent into results. Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez gets the mount for Tim Rycroft, and the 9/2 morning line is an overlay for a horse of this caliber in a starter allowance. He's the confident top pick.

place6Deal EmML 2/1

Deal Em rates 79.54 — second in this deep field — and also posts an average speed of 55, matching Tool Time at the top of the speed charts. Keimar Trotman rides for trainer Colleen O'Hagan, and a 16% career win rate in a competitive circuit is workable. The 2/1 morning-line favorite tag suggests the public likes this horse even more than we do, and she's a must-use in exactas.

show11Jeff Fa FaML 3/1

Jeff Fa Fa slots third on our ratings at 78.51 and is no slouch — a 16% career win rate with Kyle Carter up for trainer Marvin Buffalo makes this a legitimate contender for the show spot. His average speed of 54 is a tick below the top two but still competitive in this field. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's one of the more legitimate chalky show plays on the card.

Race 9

12:00 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

White Mountain brings a clear class edge to this allowance optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles, but a deep ten-horse field and a cluster of mid-tier horses rated closely together makes place and show betting genuinely interesting.

win6White MountainML 3/1

White Mountain is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and a remarkable 37% career win rate — by far the highest among any runner in the race. Amadeo Perez takes over for trainer Lane Gardipy, and the combination of elite win percentage and top rating in a field this competitive is hard to ignore. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and this is a confident top selection to close out the card.

place7ScuffleML 7/2

Scuffle rates 75.23 — second in the field — and maintains a solid 18% career win rate over a presumably competitive career sample. Trainer David Nicholson sends him out with Keihton Natera, and the 7/2 morning line keeps him at a price that rewards place-ticket holders. Over a route of 1 1/16 miles, a horse with a consistent profile can relax early and pick up the pieces late.

show8Ghostly SpitfireML 5/2

Ghostly Spitfire shares Scuffle's exact rating of 75.23 and opens at 5/2 with Jose Mariano Asencio up for trainer Tim Rycroft. With a 15% career win rate and an average speed of 53, she has the profile of a horse that hits the board more often than she wins — precisely the profile you want in a show bet. She's a logical third piece in the closer's lane over this one-turn mile-plus route.

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Bottom line for Century Downs on September 26: cool conditions, nine dirt races, and a card that rewards patience and pace awareness. Border Song, Lord of Battle, and Above Average are the names circled at the top of our card — but the full story is in the details. Subscribers get every angle on every race. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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