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Century Downs Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

September 19, 20267 racesAll Century Downs picks

Century Downs is rolling out a clean 7-race all-dirt card on Saturday, September 19, and conditions couldn't be much better for handicapping. It's a clear, sunny afternoon with temperatures sitting right around 68°F — no weather excuses today, just horses doing what they do on a fast surface.

The card is a mix of Allowance Optional Claiming sprints to kick things off and a pair of route Claiming races in the middle that should produce some interesting pace scenarios. If you like value, there are a few morning lines on the longer side that our analysis thinks are worth a serious look.

Three races are fully open to all TrackWiz readers, with our top picks and ratings included. The back half of the card — four deeper dives — is where subscribers get the full edge.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite gets upset here — our top-rated horse at 9/2 has the edge over a field where the public is likely to overlook the real contender.

win3Who IsML 9/2

Who Is (No. 3) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.9 and brings a career win rate of 21% — solid for this level. Trained by Makayla Edwards and piloted by Kimal Santo, this horse matches the top average speed figure alongside Bar Down Express at 55, giving her a legitimate pace edge over the chalk. At 9/2 on the morning line, she offers real value against a favorite that actually rates below her on our model.

place2Bar Down ExpressML 8/5

Bar Down Express (No. 2) posts a 83.69 TrackWiz rating and shares the field's top average speed figure of 55, making her a natural place contender even if she can't quite catch Who Is. Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio gets on a horse that Tim Rycroft conditions, and while the 12% career win rate is modest, the raw speed numbers say she'll be in the mix late.

show4Drinking AgainML 7/5

Drinking Again (No. 4) comes in as the 7/5 morning-line favorite with a 77.78 rating and a 20% career win percentage — respectable credentials, but our model suggests she's overbet relative to the top two. That said, trainer Tom Rycroft keeps her competitive, and she's worth including in exacta and trifecta exotics as a third wheel.

Race 2

8:15 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are separated by fewer than 10 rating points at the top, setting up a genuine three-way battle over 6½ furlongs on the dirt.

win2Red CharityML 2/1

Red Charity (No. 2) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.65 and backs it up with a 25% career win rate — tied for best in the field. Jose Mariano Asencio gets the call for trainer Carson Frey, a pairing worth watching. She's the 2/1 morning-line favorite for good reason: the numbers align cleanly, and while favorites don't always obligate, this one earns her status.

place5Madeline Tothe MaxML 9/2

Madeline Tothe Max (No. 5) is the most interesting horse on the ticket at 9/2 — she matches Red Charity's 25% career win rate and posts a 84.9 rating that's within shouting distance of the top. Kimal Santo pilots for Jerri R. Robertson, and with place odds that could pay decently given her morning-line price, she's a smart part of any exacta.

show3Gigi's AddictionML 5/2

Gigi's Addiction (No. 3) rounds out the trifecta picture with a 77.87 rating and a 25% career win rate — the same win percentage as the top two picks, which tells you this field is close. N'Rico Prescod gets the mount for trainer Alfred C. Webster, and at 5/2, she's likely to attract public money that keeps the show price reasonable while still providing trifecta coverage.

Race 3

8:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The 4/5 favorite looks vulnerable here — our analysis points to a 6/1 overlay with the best rating in the field ready to spring the upset.

win3Bakk N BeautifulML 6/1

Bakk N Beautiful (No. 3) is the TrackWiz top pick despite being 6/1 on the morning line, carrying the field's highest rating at 82.71. Trained by Makayla Edwards with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes in the irons, this horse posts a 54 average speed figure to match the top half of the field. The overlay opportunity is real — when our model's best horse is priced at 6/1 against a 4/5 chalk, that's where value lives.

place1Genie's RideML 9/2

Genie's Ride (No. 1) posts a 78.97 rating — second-best in the race — and a 54 average speed figure to match Bakk N Beautiful. Trainer Dino K. Condilenios has two horses in this field, and Silvino Morales takes the mount. The 9/2 morning line seems fair for a horse this close to the top in the ratings, and she's a natural place partner in exactas.

show5TwickenhamML 3/1

Twickenham (No. 5) brings something the others don't: a 40% career win rate, easily the highest in the field and a figure that demands respect. The 78.79 rating is right behind Genie's Ride, and Kimal Santo pilots for co-trainer Dino K. Condilenios. At 3/1, trifecta bettors should take note — a horse with that win rate is never fully dismissed.

Our three free races today are all Allowance Optional Claiming sprints, and there's a common thread worth noting: with firm, dry conditions expected all afternoon, early speed figures are likely to hold up. Who Is (Race 1, 9/2 morning line, 84.9 rating) and Red Charity (Race 2, 2/1, 86.65 rating) lead our free selections, with Red Charity posting the highest free-race rating on the card — a horse at that level on a fast dirt track in a sprint is exactly the kind of spot we want to be on.

The most intriguing free pick, though, might be Bakk N Beautiful in Race 3. Posted at 6/1 on the morning line with an 82.71 rating, this is the kind of overlay situation that makes handicapping fun. If the public underestimates her, there's real value to be captured early in the day.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The public is leaning on a 2/1 shot our model barely trusts, while a 6/1 shot with a 33% career win rate sits right under the radar.

win2B B's WildfireML 6/1

B B's Wildfire (No. 2) is our top pick at 6/1 and owns the field's best TrackWiz rating at 82.71 — not even close to Quality Command, the 2/1 morning-line chalk who checks in at just 43.54. Trainer Ron Grieves saddles a horse with a 33% career win rate, the highest among all contenders, and N'Rico Prescod picks up the mount. The 54 average speed figure matches Thrill of the Nite for tops in the field. This is a textbook value play.

place4Stay UpML 9/2

Stay Up (No. 4) has a 76.71 rating and a 24% career win rate, making her the clear second choice in our model behind B B's Wildfire. Kyle Carter gets the mount for trainer Seymour Biggs, who also runs Thrill of the Nite. At 9/2, Stay Up gives exacta players a strong, reasonably priced complement to the win pick.

show1Why Nots a WynnerML 4/1

Why Nots a Wynner (No. 1) rates third in our model at 66.81 and comes in with a 22% career win rate. Amadeo Perez handles the mount for Mel Snow, and while the rating gap between her and the top two is real, she's a legitimate trifecta piece at 4/1 — especially if the pace scenario opens up from the rail.

Race 5

9:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A route race at 1 1/16 miles where the favorite actually earns his morning-line price, but a double-digit longshot in the place spot is the most intriguing ticket of the evening.

win1Curlin RocksML 2/1

Curlin Rocks (No. 1) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 83.32 and carries a 26% career win rate — the best in this field by a clear margin. Jose Mariano Asencio gets back on for trainer Colten Mead, a strong jockey-trainer partnership. The 2/1 morning line is fair, and at the route distance, his profile holds up well against a field where several rivals are well below 70 in the ratings.

place6Writ in StoneML 10/1

Writ in Stone (No. 6) is our place pick at 10/1, and that price is where the real interest lies. He rates 76.88 — second-best in the race — with a 21% career win rate, and Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez pilots for trainer Tim Rycroft. The morning-line odds don't reflect how competitive our model thinks this horse is, which makes him a prime exacta target underneath Curlin Rocks.

show4Quinto SolML 3/1

Quinto Sol (No. 4) slots into the show spot with a 76.0 rating and a 13% career win rate, but what stands out is the 54 average speed figure — tied for tops in the field. Rashaun Delane Tristan Griffith rides for trainer Gonzalo Anderson, and at 3/1, Quinto Sol gives trifecta players a solid anchor in the third spot without breaking the bank.

Race 6

10:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Sparklet looks like the class of this 1 1/16-mile claimer, but the place and show analysis is where the real exotic value hides in a wide-open supporting cast.

win4SparkletML 2/1

Sparklet (No. 4) is simply the best horse in this field by our numbers — an 85.57 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure, both tops in the race. Jose Mariano Asencio rides for trainer Tom Rycroft, and the 2/1 morning line is a reasonable price for a horse this far ahead of her rivals on the model. Over a mile-plus route, that speed figure advantage tends to hold up.

place7Broke an BrokenML 10/1

Broke an Broken (No. 7) is the value angle in this race, carrying a 76.88 rating and a 22% career win rate at 10/1 on the morning line. Trainer Tim Rycroft — who also conditions Sparklet — knows this field intimately, and Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez is a capable hand. If Sparklet sprints clear on the front, Broke an Broken has the profile to pick up second money at a price that could make exactas extremely profitable.

show5ThompsonML 3/1

Thompson (No. 5) checks in with a 71.26 rating and a 21% career win rate, giving him legitimate credentials in a race where several rivals are well below him on the model. Amadeo Perez rides for trainer Carson Frey at 3/1, and while he's unlikely to catch Sparklet, Thompson is a logical trifecta closer who can benefit from a pace scenario set up by the speed horses early.

Race 7

10:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse field at 6½ furlongs makes for a chaotic pace picture, but our model finds a clear top three that cuts through the noise — including a 12/1 overlay worth serious attention.

win7Princess FaveML 9/2

Princess Fave (No. 7) tops our ratings in this race at 74.91 with a 23% career win rate and the field's best average speed figure at 54. Rico W. Walcott gets the mount for trainer Karline Kingston, and at 9/2 on the morning line, this is a case where the model's top horse is available at a legitimate overlay price. In a nine-horse field, that combination of rating edge and speed-figure advantage is enough to make her the clear top choice.

place4CaravallaML 12/1

Caravalla (No. 4) is the most compelling value play on the card at 12/1, posting a 73.96 rating just a whisker below Princess Fave. Jockey Keihton Natera rides for trainer Rick Hedge, and with a 16% career win rate that suggests some inconsistency, Caravalla is better framed as a place/show target. At those odds, landing on the board could pay handsomely in exactas.

show8Flirtation CardML 4/1

Flirtation Card (No. 8) comes in at 4/1 with a 71.59 rating and a 13% career win rate — the rate is modest, but the rating puts her squarely in the top three of this field. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes rides for trainer Joan Petrowski, who also saddles Dare to Compare. As a trifecta closer in a big field, Flirtation Card at morning-line 4/1 is a logical hedge and a nice complement to the Princess Fave–Caravalla combination.

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A gorgeous afternoon, a fast Century Downs dirt track, and seven races loaded with angles — today's card has something for every level of bettor. Start with our free picks on Who Is, Red Charity, and Bakk N Beautiful, and if you want the full edge on Races 4 through 7, including pace projections and exotic ticket breakdowns, the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Check out TrackWiz pricing to unlock the full card. Good luck out there — let's cash some tickets.

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