Daily Picks

Canterbury Park Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

Saturday, July 25, 20268 racesCanterbury Park

It's a hot one at Canterbury Park on Saturday, July 25 — 92°F and clear skies baking the Twin Cities oval as eight races spread across both the dirt and the turf course. The heat is no small factor today; horses that can settle off a contested pace and finish strong in the stretch will have a serious edge over front-runners who might be gassing out in these conditions.

We've got a well-rounded card to dig into, mixing claiming routes, allowance sprints, a maiden special weight, and a starter optional claiming event that always draws an interesting cast of characters. Three surface switches between dirt and turf keep things fresh and give sharp bettors multiple angles to exploit. Here's everything you need to know to attack this card.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A turf mile claiming opener where the Robertson barn saddles two live shots, setting up a potential stable exacta — but the morning line underdog may be the one to beat.

win3Rowan AugustML 3/1

Rowan August earns the top spot despite being the morning line second choice, posting the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.08. Eduardo Gallardo gets the call in the irons for the Robertson barn, which clearly likes this horse's chances — having two horses in the same race signals stable confidence, and Rowan August is the one they've put their sharpest rating behind. A 12% career win rate is respectable in this claiming company, and the avg speed figure of 53 is right in line with the field's competitive range. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's actual value here for a top-rated horse.

place2Matt's LuckML 7/5

Matt's Luck is the morning line favorite at 7/5 for good reason — a 15% career win rate is the best in this field, and the 84.82 TrackWiz rating makes this horse a clear contender for the exacta spot. Trainer McLean Robertson doubling up in the race with both the win and place picks suggests real confidence in the stable's turf mile form right now. Even if Rowan August gets up to win, Matt's Luck should be right there threatening at the wire.

show4Score McCoyML 4/1

Score McCoy at 4/1 morning line offers some exotic value as the third wheel here. A TrackWiz rating of 77.36 is a healthy step below the top two but still well clear of the bottom of this field, and the 8% career win rate is workmanlike for a claiming runner. Kelsi Harr aboard gives the horse a capable pilot, and at a shade of 4/1, Score McCoy is a reasonable inclusion in trifecta tickets if you're looking to cover the board.

Race 2

10:40 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong allowance on the dirt that looks like a two-horse battle at the top, with a sneaky value angle buried in the middle of the field.

win3T C GoldML 8/5

T C Gold heads the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 — the top mark in this field — and goes with Manuel Americano for trainer McLean Robertson. The 8/5 morning line makes this the slight chalk, and a 11% career win rate in allowance company is solid. The avg speed figure of 53 matches the pace of the top group, so there's no red flag on raw speed, and Robertson's runners have been consistent all card long.

place2It's MilesML 9/5

It's Miles runs right alongside T C Gold in the ratings at 86.86, and the 9/5 morning line actually makes it the co-favorite — so there's a real pace duel shaping up here. Constantino Roman pilots for trainer Joel Berndt, a capable combo, and the 10% career win rate is acceptable at this level. If the two favorites lock horns on the front end, one of them might get the place spot even if they flatten out chasing each other.

show4Paw AllenML 7/2

Paw Allen is the horse that stands out for a different reason entirely — a 33% career win rate is eye-opening, the highest in this field by a wide margin. The TrackWiz rating of 71.75 puts the horse third in the field, and Eduardo Gallardo rides for the Robertson barn, so there's stable confidence here. At 7/2, Paw Allen is a legitimate show contender and worth a spot in your trifecta beneath the top two.

Race 3

11:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A turf mile claimer with a clear form standout at the top, but a big-figure upset threat lurking at a price that makes the race genuinely interesting for exotic players.

win2Shotgun RunnerML 2/1

Shotgun Runner posts a 88.54 TrackWiz rating — tops in this field — and goes as the 2/1 morning line choice for the Jose Silva Jr. barn with Manuel Americano up. A 13% career win rate and an avg speed figure of 54 both check out for this level of turf claiming action. Notably, trainer Silva Jr. also runs Reboso in the same race, but the program number 2 horse is clearly the main stable hope. Americano being put on this one rather than the stablemate tells you everything you need to know about which horse the barn trusts.

place6Moral DilemmaML 3/1

Moral Dilemma is a fascinating secondary play here — the 3/1 morning line underestimates a horse who carries the field's highest avg speed figure at 56. That's not a minor edge; it's a full point above most rivals. Kelsi Harr rides for Patrick Fields, and a 16% career win rate gives this horse legitimate win upside too. The 85.58 TrackWiz rating keeps it just below Shotgun Runner, but on a pace-honest day, Moral Dilemma could absolutely flip the script.

show3Backdoor RoyaltyML 7/2

Backdoor Royalty brings an 18% career win rate — strong for a claiming horse — and the 72.71 TrackWiz rating slots this horse comfortably in the middle tier of the field. Luis A. Fuentes has the mount for the Manuel Ortiz Sr. barn, and the 7/2 morning line is fair given the competition. For trifecta purposes, Backdoor Royalty is a solid third-horse option without blowing up the ticket price.

Our three free previews cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they paint an interesting early picture of the day. On the turf course, Rowan August (Race 1, 3/1 morning line) and Shotgun Runner (Race 3, 2/1 morning line) both draw our top ratings in one-mile routes, suggesting the grass is playing fair and that closers with tactical speed could thrive in this heat. In between, T C Gold tops Race 2 on the dirt with the strongest TrackWiz rating of the free selections at 89.12 — a 6-furlong allowance where early pace projections point to a setup that suits a presser with a strong middle move.

The through-line across these three races is simple: the afternoon heat should compress pace fractions on both surfaces, rewarding horses that rate comfortably and can uncork a sustained late run rather than those asked to go wire-to-wire. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets for the front half of the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Five and a half furlongs on the dirt with a clear TrackWiz top choice, but the pace scenario sets up a potential speed duel that could benefit a closer sneaking up the inside.

win5Island BenderML 3/1

Island Bender heads the TrackWiz rankings at 87.08 and gets Constantino Roman in the saddle for trainer Joel Berndt, a pairing that has shown up strong throughout this card. The 18% career win rate is among the better figures in this field, and the 54 avg speed figure matches the pace leaders stride for stride. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a legit value play — not a short-priced chalk — for a horse that our analysis puts at the top of the heap.

place4Pepper N MintML 5/2

Pepper N Mint is the other side of what figures to be a competitive pace scenario, sporting a 20% career win rate — second best in the field — and a 82.67 TrackWiz rating. Manuel Americano takes the mount for Bennie L. Woolley Jr., and the 5/2 morning line reflects genuine public respect. Whether Pepper N Mint wins or gets edged out, the profile screams exacta inclusion.

show2Vesper ChicksML 2/1

Vesper Chicks is the morning line favorite at 2/1 with a 80.18 TrackWiz rating, so slotting this horse third in our analysis is actually a mild fade — but that makes it interesting. The 13% career win rate is modest, and Alonso Quinonez rides for Tim P. Padilla in what could be a pace-pressured spot. Still, a horse the public sends off as the favorite is rarely a throw-out, and show coverage here makes sense for anyone playing the exotics wide.

Race 5

12:10 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A seven-furlong starter optional claiming test with a legitimate top pick getting underestimated on the morning line — and a two-horse battle at the top that should make for an honest pace.

win1Long Gone SallyML 5/1

Long Gone Sally is our top selection at 5/1 on the morning line, which feels generous for a horse posting a 84.17 TrackWiz rating — best in the field. The 31% career win rate is outstanding and stands as the highest figure in this entire race, a clear sign this horse knows how to finish first. Constantino Roman rides for Lynn Rarick in what looks like a pace-favoring setup at seven furlongs on the dirt. A 5/1 morning line on a field-topping rated horse with elite win percentage? That's the definition of a value play.

place2MiwomanML 2/1

Miwoman is the morning line favorite at 2/1, and with a 26% career win rate and an 80.08 TrackWiz rating, that respect is earned. Luis A. Fuentes rides for trainer Ruben Fuentes — a family connection that often signals extra motivation — and the horse's avg speed figure of 53 is competitive at this distance. If Long Gone Sally gets up to win, Miwoman profiles as the most likely runner-up.

show4Gottotry MischiefML 4/1

Gottotry Mischief brings a solid 73.78 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate, and Manuel Americano takes the mount for Nancy Sheehan in what could be a pace-pressing role at seven furlongs. The 4/1 morning line offers decent show value for trifecta and superfecta construction. At this distance, horses who can settle off the pace often pick up tired rivals in the stretch, and Gottotry Mischief fits that profile.

Race 6

12:40 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open five-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt with a field of first-timers or lightly raced youngsters — no speed figures to lean on, so trainer and jockey angles carry extra weight.

win7StopdistractingmeML 5/2

Stopdistractingme earns the top spot here with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating, the best in the field, and goes off at 5/2 on the morning line with Manuel Americano up for trainer Victor Hanson. In maiden races with no prior speed figures to sort through, our model leans heavily on trainer reputation and workout patterns, and this horse edges out the field in that composite evaluation. Americano is one of the busiest and most successful jockeys on this card, and pairing him with the top-rated horse in a wide-open maiden makes Stopdistractingme the logical starting point for win wagers.

place1Orphan AddyML 3/1

Orphan Addy at 3/1 posts a 56.67 TrackWiz rating — nearly identical to the top pick — making this a genuine coin-flip situation at the top of the field. Trainer Joel Berndt sends this one out with Carlos Joan Ulloa in the saddle, and in a maiden race where fractions can be chaotic, a horse on the rail in post 1 with elite ratings is a natural exacta partner. The morning line actually prices Orphan Addy slightly longer than her rating suggests, which is a mild value angle.

show8Manuka SonasML 4/1

Manuka Sonas rounds out our top three at a 55.0 TrackWiz rating and 4/1 on the morning line, with Kelsi Harr up for Tony Rengstorf. In a maiden field where any horse can emerge on debut, getting three similarly rated horses in the exotics is smart construction — these three are separated by just 2.5 rating points, so this is clearly a cluster race at the top. Manuka Sonas at 4/1 offers the best pricing of the three for show ticket purposes.

Race 7

1:10 AM EDT

Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Seven and a half furlongs on the turf brings out a strong favorite who has the numbers to justify favoritism, but a pair of capable closers make the exotics worth building out.

win7Frosty ViewML 9/5

Frosty View is the standout of the entire race card with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a remarkable 35% career win rate — the highest of any horse we've seen today. Luis A. Fuentes rides for Joel Berndt, a trainer who has been active and confident all card, and the 9/5 morning line reflects just how strongly the public respects this one. The avg speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the field along with Thealligatorhunter, and at seven and a half furlongs on the turf, a horse who closes well and wins often is a dangerous combination.

place3Haunted HazeML 6/1

Haunted Haze brings a 76.46 TrackWiz rating and a 30% career win rate, both suggesting this horse competes hard and finishes — exactly what you want in a place horse. Manuel Americano has the mount for Esteban Martinez, and the avg speed figure of 56 matches the favorite's top number. At 6/1 on the morning line, Haunted Haze is actually a mild value in the place column — if Frosty View sets the pace and tires, or if traffic gets messy, this horse has the form to pounce.

show8Sushi ManML 5/2

Sushi Man runs third in our analysis with a 75.31 TrackWiz rating and a 30% career win rate that matches Haunted Haze's impressive figure. Eduardo Gallardo takes the mount for Coty W. Rosin, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the public may be underrating this horse relative to our rankings — it's priced almost as short as the favorite but sits third in the field by rating. In turf route races, trip luck matters enormously, and Sushi Man has the ability to benefit if the pace collapses.

Race 8

1:40 AM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a five-and-a-half furlong allowance on the dirt featuring two closely matched top horses separated by less than a point in TrackWiz ratings — this one could come down to the wire.

win1Make It HappenML 3/1

Make It Happen earns the top nod on a 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate, one of the stronger figures in this allowance field. Eduardo Gallardo rides for Tony Rengstorf, and the 3/1 morning line is a fair price for the top-rated horse. The avg speed figure of 54 is competitive across this group, and in a short sprint on the dirt, a horse who rates at the top of the field and has a sharp jockey in the irons deserves to be on top of every ticket.

place7Bridie's LegacyML 7/2

Bridie's Legacy is separated from the win pick by less than a point — 86.35 TrackWiz rating versus 87.08 — making this practically a dead heat at the top of the field. Luis A. Fuentes picks up the mount for Michael E. Biehler, and that 25% career win rate is the highest in the race, suggesting this horse has a history of finding the winner's circle when conditions align. At 7/2 on the morning line, Bridie's Legacy is an entirely reasonable win contender dressed up as our place pick.

show5Vali Vali ValML 6/1

Vali Vali Val at 6/1 morning line gives the exotics a logical third piece with a 76.17 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the bottom half of this field. Constantino Roman has the mount for Tim P. Padilla, and the 12% career win rate shows the horse has closed out races at this level before. In a five-and-a-half furlong sprint where the top two may match strides through the lane, a fresh horse sitting off the pace at a nice price could grab the show spot.

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Bottom line: Canterbury Park is serving up an active 8-race card under blazing summer sun, and there are legitimate angles throughout. T C Gold headlines the free plays, while Frosty View and Long Gone Sally are the names to watch in the premium half of the card. Grab the full subscriber breakdown at /pricing and go into post time with every edge we can give you. Good luck out there.

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