Daily Picks

Canterbury Park Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026

Thursday, July 23, 20268 racesCanterbury Park

Canterbury Park is rolling out an eight-race card this Thursday afternoon under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 78°F — about as good as Minnesota summer racing gets. The turf should be playing firm and fast, which is exactly what you want when two of today's races are contested on the grass at a mile.

The headliner is Race 1, a Quarter Horse Stakes sprint at 350 yards where Relentless Legacy draws in as the even-money morning line favorite. But don't sleep on the rest of the card — we've got a Quarter Horse Futurity, a pair of turf routes, and a dirt allowance sprint that figures to be one of the most competitive races of the afternoon.

Three races are fully unlocked for everyone today, and our TrackWiz analysis has you covered from the first gates to the final furlong.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:10 PM EDT

Stakes · 350 yd · Dirt

A 350-yard quarter-horse stakes with a clear standout on paper, but the morning line suggests the crowd will back the favorite heavily — the real question is whether anyone can close the gap at these short odds.

win6Relentless LegacyML EVN

Relentless Legacy draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 90 — a significant margin over the next-best horse — and lands on the morning line as the even-money favorite, which tells you the morning line maker sees it the same way. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead saddles this one with jockey Armando Alvidrez aboard, a combination worth noting in a short sprint where execution out of the gate is everything. A 37% career win rate is elite for any horse, and in a 350-yard dash where there's almost no time to recover from a slow break, that kind of consistent winning record is a massive edge.

place5Thirty Four BelowML 10/1

Thirty Four Below sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 62.77 despite a 10/1 morning line, which suggests some underlying value here. Trainer Haley N. Hobbs is no stranger to this race — she saddles three horses on the card today — and her stable connections give her a deep read on how this field is set up. At double-digit odds, this one makes plenty of sense underneath in exactas and trifectas.

show4Stel an EagleML 8/1

Stel an Eagle carries the best career win percentage in the field outside the top pick, converting at 50% lifetime under trainer Briannah McDaniel. That's a remarkable strike rate and speaks to a horse that consistently fires its best effort on race day. At 8/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 55.28, it fits neatly into the show spot and rounds out your exotics coverage.

Race 2

10:38 PM EDT

Futurity · 350 yd · Dirt

This 350-yard futurity features a deep Olmstead barn presence and a handful of first-time starters that make the pace scenario unpredictable — one horse separates itself on our ratings, but the wide field keeps the exotics interesting.

win7Livin D DreamML 4/1

Livin D Dream tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 in a wide-open futurity field, and that margin over the competition is hard to ignore in a race where fractions of a second decide everything. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead has multiple runners in today's card and clearly knows how to condition quarter horses for this format — jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia gets the call on what looks like the barn's best chance here. A 33% career win rate in a futurity setting is solid, and the 4/1 morning line offers fair value for what our ratings suggest is the class of the field.

place4OurrelentlessdynastyML 5/1

Ourrelentlessdynasty, also trained by Jason L. Olmstead, rates second-best in this field at 60.79 with a 33% career win rate — the Olmstead barn is stacking the deck in this one. Armando Alvidrez, who also rides the top pick in Race 1 for Olmstead, gets the mount here, keeping the live rider in the irons. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate place contender and a natural exacta partner with the win pick.

show1Hawk Yea Im FastML 10/1

Hawk Yea Im Fast is a first-time starter trained by Haley N. Hobbs, rating 59.08 — the third-highest figure in this field — which is noteworthy for a horse without a career win on record. In futurities, workout figures and trial performances often drive these ratings, and a number this close to the top two horses suggests Hobbs has this one ready to fire fresh. Fernando Fonseca-Soto rides, and at 10/1, this is exactly the kind of unproven speed that can sneak into the trifecta.

Race 3

11:08 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden special weight on the turf at 7.5 furlongs sets up as a two-horse battle at the top of the ratings, with the rest of the field well behind — expect the exacta to be short but the show pool to offer some interest.

win4Dancing BootsML 8/5

Dancing Boots lands at the top of our ratings at 87.62 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 8/5, signaling that the public and our numbers are aligned. Trainer Coty W. Rosin puts Eduardo Gallardo in the irons — a sharp booking for a horse making what looks like a well-prepared debut. An average speed figure of 53 ties the field high alongside two other horses, but the combination of the top overall rating and the class of the connections makes this the most complete package in the race.

place5Adrienne's BalboaML 3/1

Adrienne's Balboa is separated from Dancing Boots by just half a rating point — 87.08 to 87.62 — making this genuinely a coin-flip between the top two on our model. Trainer Tony Rengstorf sends out Kelsi Harr, a capable rider who knows this turf course well. At 3/1 on the morning line, the place price won't be generous, but in a race this tight at the top, backing both horses across the board in exactas is a reasonable approach.

show2Add to CartML 4/1

Add to Cart comes in rated 63.12, a sizable step below the top two but clearly the third-best horse on our numbers in a six-horse field. Trainer Bruce L. Riecken puts Jermaine V. Bridgmohan up, and that's a jockey with experience navigating turf routes — important at 7.5 furlongs where positioning matters. At 4/1 on the morning line, this one slots in as a natural show play and a key horse to include in trifectas underneath the top pair.

The free picks today span the two Quarter Horse sprints and a maiden special weight on the turf — three very different looks at the card. In Race 1, Relentless Legacy (EVN ML, 90 rating) is the horse to beat in the Stakes sprint, but even-money isn't exactly a gift, so understanding why we still like her is worth the read. Race 2's Futurity brings Livin D Dream at a much more attractive 4/1 morning line — that's the kind of price that gets our attention on a horse with an 85+ TrackWiz rating in a juvenile sprint. Then we shift to the grass for Race 3, where Dancing Boots (8/5 ML, 87.62 rating) takes on a maiden field going 7½ furlongs on a turf course that should be playing to her strengths today.

The through-line on the free races: early speed figures to be at a premium in both short Quarter Horse sprints, while the turf maiden should reward a horse that can settle and close. Keep that pace dynamic in mind as you build your tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden dirt sprint at 4.5 furlongs where every horse is winless, making this a pure pace and projection exercise — the TrackWiz ratings are compressed at the top, and post position could matter more than usual.

win5Its Billy BarooML 3/1

Its Billy Baroo tops the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 3/1, a logical outcome in a field where the top five horses are separated by fewer than four rating points. Trainer Joel Berndt puts Alonso Quinonez in the irons, and Berndt is a familiar name at Canterbury with a solid book of maiden runners. In a short sprint like this, breaking clean and establishing position early is critical, and this horse's edge on our numbers — however slim — makes it the right side to be on.

place10Bolt of LuckML 4/1

Bolt of Luck rates 55.00 with Sachin Parris aboard for trainer Stacey Rushton, sitting just behind the top pick in the ratings and carrying a morning line of 4/1. Rushton also has Ace in the Hall in this race, which could mean some stable intelligence on which one fires today. As the second choice on the morning line, Bolt of Luck profiles as a natural exacta partner and a horse that should be hitting the board if the top pick fires.

show3Son of MoML 5/1

Son of Mo checks in at a rating of 53.33 for trainer Tim P. Padilla with Constantino Roman up, and the 5/1 morning line puts it right in the mix in what is a genuinely tight field. Roman has been active at Canterbury and brings solid experience to a first-time starter situation. The rating is close enough to the top horses that a clean break and a good trip could easily put this one in the trifecta.

Race 5

12:08 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf claimer with a clear standout on the ratings but genuine supporting cast — the pace scenario on the turf adds a wrinkle, and there's a value angle lurking in the place and show spots.

win4Baby Doll PeachML 3/1

Baby Doll Peach rates 87.08, the highest mark in this field by a meaningful margin, and Joel Berndt sends out Eduardo Gallardo in what looks like a well-spotted claiming runner. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse the market respects, and an average speed figure of 54 ties for the field high alongside Cayman Hot. A 14% career win rate in claiming company is respectable, and the rating gap to the rest of the field makes this the most logical win bet on the card.

place8Radio CharlieML 6/1

Radio Charlie comes in rated 72.83 — the second-highest number in the field — and trainer Ronald L. Westermann sends out Alonso Quinonez at a generous 6/1 on the morning line. A 12% career win rate and an average speed of 52 suggest a consistent, if not flashy, performer who tends to find the board. At those odds in a one-mile turf route where pace and stamina matter, this is a value play worth including in exactas.

show1MariarosadelaserdaML 6/1

Mariarosadelaserda draws the one-hole for trainer Troy A. Bethke with Constantino Roman riding, and a rating of 69.04 makes this the third-best horse on our numbers. The inside post in a mile turf route can be a blessing or a curse depending on how the pace develops, but Roman is an experienced enough rider to manage the position. At 6/1 on the morning line, this rounds out the trifecta nicely and offers show value that the price more than justifies.

Race 6

12:38 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt at 7 furlongs with a clear class edge at the top of our ratings — the top two finishers may separate themselves early, but a competitive place and show battle lurks beneath them.

win4AshryverML 5/2

Ashryver tops the TrackWiz ratings at 71.84 with an average speed figure of 54 — tied for the field high — and draws the 5/2 morning line, making this the most well-rounded profile in the maiden claiming field. Trainer Tena Birdwell, who also has Twentythreeonblack in this race, puts Fausto Henrique Da Silva on her better-rated runner, which is a meaningful stable signal. In a 7-furlong maiden claimer, speed figures and consistency of effort are the best predictors of performance, and this horse scores well on both counts.

place5Lil AnthonyML 5/1

Lil Anthony rates 67.98 for trainer Ruben Fuentes, with Sachin Parris taking the mount at a 5/1 morning line that looks like reasonable value. An average speed figure of 52 is slightly below the top horses, but the rating margin is close enough that a clean trip and a good break could vault this one into the place spot. This is exactly the kind of horse that keeps exacta payouts honest — a legitimate second horse that isn't drawing much buzz.

show2StaufML 4/1

Stauf comes in rated 62.18 with Carlos Joan Ulloa in the irons for trainer Jose Silva Jr., who also has Miz Imogee in this field. At 4/1 on the morning line, the crowd has some respect for this one, and an average speed of 52 gives a base level of dirt form to work with. As the third-rated horse in the field, Stauf is a natural show play and a sensible inclusion in trifecta tickets underneath the top two.

Race 7

1:08 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf claimer that looks like a genuine pace duel shaping up, with four horses rated within 11 points of each other in the top tier — the closers might have a say if the front end gets too heated.

win8Able SeamanML 4/1

Able Seaman carries the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 85.62, a clear margin over the next-best horse, and Constantino Roman gets the mount for trainer Michael E. Biehler. A 13% career win rate in claiming company is solid, and an average speed of 52 in turf routes gives the form a legitimate foundation. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's real value here relative to the ratings — this horse is priced more like a second or third choice but profiles as the best horse in the field.

place1Midnight ApprovalML 3/1

Midnight Approval rates 75.22 for trainer Tena Birdwell with Sachin Parris up, and the 3/1 morning line actually makes this the public's favorite despite finishing second on our ratings. An average speed of 53 and a 7% career win rate in turf routes paints a picture of a consistent but not dominant claimer — exactly the kind of horse that fills the place spot more often than it wins. The slight mismatch between morning line and our ratings makes the place bet particularly interesting.

show5Pat Can't CountML 6/1

Pat Can't Count rates 74.48, just a point and a half behind Midnight Approval, and the 6/1 morning line on trainer Manuel Ortiz Sr.'s runner with Luis A. Fuentes up looks like fair value. An average speed figure of 54 is actually the highest of our top three picks in this race, which suggests this horse may be underestimated on raw pace. Including Pat Can't Count in trifecta tickets as a live show horse at 6/1 is a smart angle in what is shaping up to be a closely contested turf mile.

Race 8

1:38 AM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A 5.5-furlong dirt allowance where one horse dominates both the speed figures and the morning line — the intrigue is whether a short-priced favorite with a modest win rate can be trusted, or whether the value lies in the supporting cast at bigger prices.

win7KalatuaML 7/5

Kalatua is the standout in this allowance field with a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 — the highest of the entire day on the dirt — and the 7/5 morning line reflects the crowd's confidence. Trainer McLean Robertson sends out Manuel Americano, and the combination of a top-of-field average speed figure of 56 and that commanding rating margin makes this horse the clear class of the field. A 14% career win rate is modest, but in allowance company at this track the underlying speed figures are more predictive, and they all point the same direction.

place6RocknsockconectionML 6/1

Rocknsockconection rates 66.68 and comes in with a 40% career win rate — the second-highest in the field — making trainer Michael E. Biehler's runner a legitimate threat to hit the board. Kelsi Harr rides at a 6/1 morning line that looks generous for a horse with that kind of career winning percentage. If Kalatua is bet down to near even money, a place bet on Rocknsockconection at 6/1 could be the smarter way to play the race.

show2King of the TrailML 6/1

King of the Trail rates 66.37 with Alonso Quinonez up for trainer Tim P. Padilla, carrying a 14% career win rate and an average speed of 54. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is a horse priced similarly to Rocknsockconection but with slightly less career win percentage — still, the rating puts it firmly in the mix for a show slot. In allowance sprints where pace is fast, closers and stalkers with consistent speed figures tend to find their way into the trifecta.

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Today's best free plays are Relentless Legacy in Race 1, Livin D Dream at value odds in Race 2, and Dancing Boots on the turf in Race 3. For the full eight-race breakdown — including Kalatua in the allowance feature and our exotic ticket recommendations — premium access has everything you need. Good luck at the windows.

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